ESMO2023:恩扎卢胺联合雄激素剥夺治疗对比安慰剂联合雄激素剥夺治疗在中国转移性激素敏感性前列腺癌患者中的疗效和安全性(中国ARCHES)

2019年发表的全球ARCHES试验(NCT02677896)结果显示,与安慰剂(placebo,PBO)+雄激素剥夺治疗(androgen deprivation therapy,ADT)相比,恩扎卢胺+ADT延长了转移性激素敏感性前列腺癌(metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer,mHSPC)患者的总生存期和放射影像学无进展生存期(radiographic progression-free survival,rPFS)^([1])。然而,该试验无中国患者入组。欧洲肿瘤内科学会(European Society for Medical Oncology,ESMO)2023年会议报道了中国ARCHES研究(NCT04076059)的初步结果,这是一项评估恩扎卢胺+ADTvs.PBO+ADT在中国m HSPC患者中的疗效和安全性的多中心、随机、双盲、PBO对照的Ⅲ期试验^([2])。

Health diagnosis of ultrahigh arch dam performance using heterogeneous spatial panel vector model

Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.

Numerical Simulation Analysis of Welded Joints in Arch Ribs of Large Span Steel Pipe Arch Bridges

In order to study the residual stress distribution law of welded joints of arch ribs of large-span steel pipe concrete arch bridges,numerical simulation of temperature,stress and strain fields based on ABAQUS for welded joints of arch-ribbed steel tubes using 7-,8-and 9-layer welds is carried out and its accuracy is demonstrated.The steel pipe welding temperature changes,residual stress distribution,different processes residual stress changes in the law,the prediction of post-weld residual stress distribution and deformation are studied in this paper.The results show that the temperature field values and test results are more consistent with the accuracy of numerical simulation of welding,the welding process is mainly in the form of heat transfer;Residual high stresses are predominantly distributed in the Fusion zone(FZ)and Heat-affected zone(HAZ),with residual stress levels tending to decrease from the center of the weld along the axial path,the maximum stress appears in the FZ and HAZ junction;The number of welding layers has an effect on the residual stress distribution,the number of welding layers increases,the residual stress tends to decrease,while the FZ and HAZ high stress area range shrinks;Increasing the number of plies will increase the amount of residual distortion.

A Nonlinear Explicit Model of A Non-Circular Subsea Tunnel-Liner System with An FGM Inverted Arch Under Mechanical Loading and Fire Fields

This paper proposes an explicit scheme to analyze the failure of a subsea polyhedral tunnel-liner system with an inverted arch under mechanical loading and fire fields.The thin-walled liner is made of Functionally Graded Materials(FGMs),which may improve the stability behavior of the tunnel-liner system.Hydrostatic pressure is inevitable in the liner since underground water may penetrate the cracks of the tunnel,and reach the outer surface of the liner.In addition,an elevated temperature loading is taken into account,considering that fire may occur in the tunnel-liner system.Under the combination of mechanical loading and thermal loading,the liner deforms into a single-lobe shape,which is depicted by a trigonometric function.The total potential energy is expressed quantitatively after the energy approach and thin-walled shell theory are used.The minimum potential energy is obtained when the critical buckling occurs.The critical buckling pressure is calculated,which considers the effect of the thermal field.The present analytical prediction is subsequently compared precisely with other closed-form solutions.Finally,the effects of several parameters,such as the geometric shapes,temperature variations,and volume fraction indices,are discussed to further survey the buckling performance of the nonlinear buckling of an FGM polyhedral liner with an inverted arch.One may address a polyhedral liner with fewer polyhedral sides,and a lower volume fraction index is recommended to rehabilitate cracked tunnels in engineering applications.

Prediction model of surrounding rock deformation in doublecontinuous-arch tunnel based on the ABC-WNN

Purpose–The wavelet neural network(WNN)has the drawbacks of slow convergence speed and easy falling into local optima in data prediction.Although the artificial bee colony(ABC)algorithm has strong global optimization ability and fast convergence speed,it also has the drawbacks of slow speed while finding the optimal solution and weak optimization ability in the later stage.Design/methodology/approach–This article uses an ABC algorithm to optimize the WNN and establishes an ABC-WNN analysis model.Based on the example of the Jinan Yuhan underground tunnel project,the deformation of the surrounding rock of the double-arch tunnel crossing the fault fracture zone is predicted and analyzed,and the analysis results are compared with the actual detection amount.Findings–The comparison results show that the predicted values of the ABC-WNN model have a high degree of fitting with the actual engineering data,with a maximum relative error of only 4.73%.On this basis,the results show that the statistical features of ABC-WNN are the lowest,with the errors at 0.566 and 0.573,compared with the single back propagation(BP)neural network model and WNN model.Therefore,it can be derived that the ABC-WNN model has higher prediction accuracy,better computational stability and faster convergence speed for deformation.Originality/value–This article uses firstly the ABC-WNN for the deformation analysis of double-arch tunnels.This attempt laid the foundation for artificial intelligence prediction in deformation analysis of multiarch tunnels and small clearance tunnels.It can provide a new and effective way for deformation prediction in similar projects.

Effects of comprehensive nursing with cognitive behavioral therapy in orthodontic osteodilated arch treatment

BACKGROUND This work explored the effects of cognitive behavior therapy(CBT)-based comprehensive nursing intervention(CNI)mode in arch expansion to treat patients with orthodontic osteodilated arch(OOA).AIM To explore the application effect of CBT-based CNI model in orthodontic expansion arch treatment.METHODS Using convenient sampling method,81 patients with OOA were selected and rolled into a control group(Ctrl group,40 cases)and an observation group(Obs group,41 cases).During the treatment,patients in the Ctrl group received routine nursing intervention mode,and the those in the Obs group received CBT mode on the basis of this.Before and after intervention,the incidence of oral mucositis,the mastery rate of correct arch expansion method,self-rating anxiety scale score,soft scale index,and plaque index were compared for patients in different groups.In addition,satisfaction and complications were comparatively analyzed.RESULTS Incidence of oral mucositis in the Obs group was lower(14.6%vs 38.5%),and the mastery rate of correct arch expansion method was obviously higher(90.2%vs 55.0%)was obviously higher(all P<0.05).Meanwhile,the soft scale index and plaque index in the Obs group were much lower(P<0.05).The compliance(90.24%)and satisfaction(95.12%)in the Obs group were greatly higher(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The CBT-based CNI mode greatly improved the mastery rate of correct arch expansion method during arch expansion in treating patients with OOA and enhanced the therapeutic effect of arch expansion and the oral health of patients,improving the patient compliance.

基于SARIMA-ARCH的电量预测模型

电量预测是供电单位购电的重要依据,是电力经济稳定运行的根本基础。提出采用SARIMA-ARCH融合模型对某地区售电量进行预测。首先,采用季节时间序列分析方法(SARIMA)对月度电量时间序列进行建模,通过ACF和PACF图筛选确定出最佳模型阶数,得到季节性时间序列模型(SARIMA)基础预测模型;提取模型残差的波动性,建立自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型;最后,将SARIMA-ARCH模型与常规SRIAM和ARIMA的预测值进行对比分析。结果表明,SARIMAARCH混合模型的预测精度较高。

基于ARCH族模型的股票超高频数据的波动性研究——以浦发银行为例

论文基于浦发银行股票的逐笔交易数据,利用ARCH族模型对其超高频数据中的波动性进行了研究。论文首先通过对数据的预处理和单位根检验,确保了数据的平稳性,随后应用多种ARCH族模型对波动性进行建模与比较,最终选择TGARCH(2,1,1)模型作为最优模型。该模型不仅能够捕捉数据中的波动集聚效应,还揭示了显著的波动非对称性。研究结果表明,浦发银行的股票收益波动性具有显著的持久性和杠杆效应,负面冲击对波动的影响大于正面冲击。基于这些发现,论文提出了加强高频交易监管、优化投资策略和强化风险管理等政策启示。

基于状态转移ARCH模型的中国股市波动性研究

通过引入波动性状态转移的ARCH(SWARCH)模型对中国股票市场的波动性进行了研究.SWARCH模型较传统的ARCH类模型显著地提高了股票市场波动性的描述与预测能力.实证结果表明,促使中国股市低波动性状态向高波动性状态转移的主要原因是股市的政策因素,这与因为实体经济基础的变化而促使美国股市波动性状态转移有着本质的区别.

我国畜产品价格波动分析——基于ARCH类模型

运用ARCH类模型对我国主要畜产品的价格波动率进行了分析。结果表明:牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动具有显著的波动积聚性,鸡蛋价格波动没有显著的异方差效应;除牛肉市场外,羊肉和鸡肉市场不具有高风险、高回报的特征;猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动没有非对称性。认为应在畜产品市场出现大的价格波动时及时采取平抑措施,且政府需规范畜产品市场秩序、完善畜产品市场制度。

人民币汇率预期的ARCH效应分析

使用人民币NDF(无本金交割远期交易 )汇率作为人民币汇率预期的代理变量 ,使用ARCH(AutoregressiveConditionalHeteroskedastic)模型族研究其波动特征 .结果表明 ,人民币汇率预期存在ARCH效应 ,具有尖峰、厚尾、波动群集性和非对称性等特征 .这些特征要求在应对人民币升值或贬值冲击时 ,在保持汇率基本稳定的前提下 ,应使汇率更具灵活性 ,适度扩大人民币汇率的浮动区间并逐步改善人民币汇率的形成机制 .

中国粮食价格波动特征研究——基于X-12-ARIMA模型和ARCH类模型

以小麦和大豆为例,研究2002年1月至2012年6月中国粮食价格波动特征。首先利用X-12-ARIMA模型对价格序列进行季节调整,然后运用ARCH类模型对剥离季节因素的价格序列进行波动分析。结果发现:中国粮食价格季节性波动逐年减弱;粮食价格具有明显的波动集簇性,前期价格波动和外部冲击对后期价格的影响具有持续性;粮食市场不存在"高风险、高回报"特征;小麦价格波动的非对称性不显著,而大豆价格波动则呈现明显的非对称特征,且上期价格上涨信息引发的波动要大于下跌信息。

基于ARMA-GARCH模型的黄金价格实证分析

研究黄金价格的动态演变过程至关重要。文中以1971年1月至2008年12月期间的伦敦黄金交易市场下午定盘价格为基础,利用时间序列的相关理论,建立了黄金价格的ARMA-GARCH模型,并对2008年数据进行了实证分析,其结果非常接近。利用该模型可动态刻画黄金价格数据的生成过程,也可帮助黄金产品投资者和生产者做出更加灵活、科学的决策。

基于EEMD和ARCH的风电功率超短期预测

针对风电功率具有非平稳性和波动集群现象,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解和自回归条件异方差组合模型预测方法。该方法通过EEMD分解法将风电出力分解为一系列平稳的时序分量,再由游程判定法,将时序分量重组为波动分量、短期趋势分量和长期趋势分量,以集中分量特征信息降低预测难度;针对各分量的波动特征,建立相应的ARCH预测模型。算例结果表明,该种组合预测方法简单,具有较高的预测精度,能更好的反应风电功率的波动特性。

金融市场预测决策的有力工具:ARCH模型

ARCH模型为最近15年里发展起来的关于时间序列的模型.由于它反映了随机过程的一种特殊特性:方差随时间而变化,从而在金融市场预测和决策中取得了显著成果.本文在分析金融市场数据特性的基础上,较为详细地介绍了ARCH模型的形式与分类、参数估计和模型假设检验等若干理论问题,并适当地探讨了ARCH模型在金融市场研究中的应用前景.

基于ARMA-GARCH模型的超短期风功率预测研究

风功率预测对提高电能质量和电力系统的安全运行具有重要意义。基于时间序列的方法,对内蒙古赤峰地区某风场的风功率数据进行了超短期预测,通过对数据平稳性检验的结果,建立了时间序列的ARMA模型,利用拉格朗日乘子检验的方法,检验ARMA模型具有ARCH效应,并建立适合的ARMA-GARCH模型。结论通过对比ARMA模型,ARMA-ARCH模型和ARMA-GARCH模型的风功率预测精度可知,在解决数据的残差序列异方差函数具有长期相关性时,ARMA-GARCH模型能够有效的提高预测精度。

基于ARCH类模型的国际粮价波动规律研究

粮价的波动最终会给一国的粮食安全带来巨大风险。了解国际粮价的波动特征有助于采取相应的措施稳定粮价,避免粮价波动的国际传导对国内粮食市场进而对粮食安全产生不利影响。通过建立ARCH类模型,分析各类粮食国际价格的波动规律。得出的主要结论有:国际粮价波动存在明显的集族性;外部冲击对国际粮价波动具有持久性影响;国际粮食市场不存在高风险高粮价的特征;国际粮价波动具有显著的非对称性,而且粮价上涨的信息引发的粮价波动要大于粮价下降的信息引发的波动。

基于ARCH类模型的中国苹果价格波动分析

为了掌握苹果价格波动的规律与特征,稳定果品市场和提高果农收入,运用自回归条件异方差类模型(ARCH)验证苹果价格的波动规律,通过ARCH模型检验苹果价格波动是否有集聚性,ARCH-M模型验证苹果果品市场是否具有高风险、高回报的特征,TARCH模型和EGARCH模型验证苹果价格波动的非对称性。结果表明:苹果价格有显著的异方差效应,价格波动有显著的集聚性;苹果市场没有高风险高回报的特征,价格波动存在对称性,不具有"杠杆效应"。

ARCH模型的研究与探讨

自回归条件异方差（ＡＲＣＨ）模型是近年来新发展起来的时间序列模型，它反映了随机过程的一种特殊特性：即方差随时间变化而变化，且具有丛集性、波动性．ＡＲＣＨ 模型已广泛地应用于经济领域的建模及研究过程中．本文介绍了ＡＲＣＨ 模型的特点，它的参数估计和检验，以及ＡＲＣＨ 模型的发展情况．

基于ARCH类模型的我国饲料价格波动分析

利用ARCH类模型对1995年以来我国育肥猪配合饲料、肉鸡配合饲料和蛋鸡配合饲料等月度价格的波动性、非对称性进行分析,结果表明:(1)3类饲料的价格均具有显著的异方差效应,其价格波动有显著的集簇性,在市场上不具有高风险高收益的特征;(2)饲料价格波动具有非对称性,其价格上涨信息所引发的波动比价格下降信息引发的波动更大。为平抑饲料价格波动影响,建议加强饲料市场监测预警、出台饲料价格补贴政策、积极推行畜禽产业一体化。