This paper discusses a stochastic duel model between two forces. On one side is the guerrilla(or terrorists) which has only one weapon(or person), and on the other an organized force of some sort which has many weapon...This paper discusses a stochastic duel model between two forces. On one side is the guerrilla(or terrorists) which has only one weapon(or person), and on the other an organized force of some sort which has many weapons. The model is called the many-versus-one guerrilla war. The guerrilla side has a number of advantages such as choice of location and time of engagement, concealment by topography, observation of the intended target, and line of fire. The authors present these advantages in what they believe are a realistic scenario of a duel between the guerrilla force and the organized force. By the four suppositions coinciding with the practical duel background, the paper presents the formulas to calculate the satisfying probability, the weak satisfying probability, and the acceptable probability of the attack side.展开更多
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No.60874118
文摘This paper discusses a stochastic duel model between two forces. On one side is the guerrilla(or terrorists) which has only one weapon(or person), and on the other an organized force of some sort which has many weapons. The model is called the many-versus-one guerrilla war. The guerrilla side has a number of advantages such as choice of location and time of engagement, concealment by topography, observation of the intended target, and line of fire. The authors present these advantages in what they believe are a realistic scenario of a duel between the guerrilla force and the organized force. By the four suppositions coinciding with the practical duel background, the paper presents the formulas to calculate the satisfying probability, the weak satisfying probability, and the acceptable probability of the attack side.
