Stochastic Dynamic Modeling of Rain Attenuation: A Survey

Satellite communication systems(SCS) operating on frequency bands above 10 GHz are sensitive to atmosphere physical phenomena, especially rain attenuation. To evaluate impairments in satellite performance, stochastic dynamic modeling(SDM) is considered as an effective way to predict real-time satellite channel fading caused by rain. This article carries out a survey of SDM using stochastic differential equations(SDEs) currently in the literature. Special attention is given to the different input characteristics of each model to satisfy specific local conditions. Future research directions in SDM are also suggested in this paper.

Linearization threshold condition and stability analysis of a stochastic dynamic model of one-machine infinite-bus (OMIB) power systems

With the increase in the proportion of multiple renewable energy sources, power electronics equipment and new loads, power systems are gradually evolving towards the integration of multi-energy, multi-network and multi-subject affected by more stochastic excitation with greater intensity. There is a problem of establishing an effective stochastic dynamic model and algorithm under different stochastic excitation intensities. A Milstein-Euler predictor-corrector method for a nonlinear and linearized stochastic dynamic model of a power system is constructed to numerically discretize the models. The optimal threshold model of stochastic excitation intensity for linearizing the nonlinear stochastic dynamic model is proposed to obtain the corresponding linearization threshold condition. The simulation results of one-machine infinite-bus (OMIB) systems show the correctness and rationality of the predictor-corrector method and the linearization threshold condition for the power system stochastic dynamic model. This study provides a reference for stochastic modelling and efficient simulation of power systems with multiple stochastic excitations and has important application value for stability judgment and security evaluation.

Tidal Level Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Yangtze Estuary

The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary. This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response along the tidal reaches in the Yangtze Estuary, as well as the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response, due to the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Based on the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data obtained during the period 1993-2005, a stochastic dynamic analysis was performed and a forecast model was run to predict the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Two- dimensional hydrodynamic numerical models downscaling from the East China Sea to estuarine areas were implemented to analyze the rise of tidal level along the tidal reaches. In response to the sea-level rise, the tidal wave characteristics change slightly in nearshore areas outside the estuaries, involving the tidal range and the duration of flood and ebb tide. The results show that the rise of tidal level in the tidal reaches due to the sea-level rise has upstream decreasing trends. The step between the stations of Zhangjiagang and Shiyiwei divides the tidal reaches into two parts, in which the tidal level response declines slightly. The rise of tidal level is 1-2.5 mm/a in the upper part, and 4-6 mm/a in the lower part. The stations of Jiangyin and Yanglin, as an example of the upper part and the lower part respectively, are extracted to analyze the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response to the sea-level rise. The relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge can be fitted well with a quadratic fimction in the upper part. However, the relation is too complicated to be fitted in the lower part because of the tide dominance. For comparison purposes, hourly tidal level observations at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin during the period 1993-2009 are adopted. In order to uniform the influence of upstream discharge on tidal level for a certain day each year, the hourly tidal level observations are corrected by the correlation between the increment of tidal level and the increment of daily mean upstream discharge. The rise of annual mean tidal level is evaluated. The resulting rise of tidal level at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin is 3.0 mm/a and 6.6 mm/a respectively, close to the rise of 5 mm/a according to the proposed relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge.

Stochastic fluctuations of permittivity coupling regulate seizure dynamics in partial epilepsy

Partial epilepsy is characterized by recurrent seizures that arise from a localized pathological brain region. During the onset of partial epilepsy, the seizure evolution commonly exhibits typical timescale separation phenomenon. This timescale separation behavior can be mimicked by a paradigmatic model termed as Epileptor, which consists of coupled fast-slow neural populations via a permittivity variable. By incorporating permittivity noise into the Epileptor model, we show here that stochastic fluctuations of permittivity coupling participate in the modulation of seizure dynamics in partial epilepsy. In particular, introducing a certain level of permittivity noise can make the model produce more comparable seizure-like events that capture the temporal variability in realistic partial seizures. Furthermore, we observe that with the help of permittivity noise our stochastic Epileptor model can trigger the seizure dynamics even when it operates in the theoretical nonepileptogenic regime. These findings establish a deep mechanistic understanding on how stochastic fluctuations of permittivity coupling shape the seizure dynamics in partial epilepsy,and provide insightful biological implications.

Randomness in the Hybrid Modeling and Simulation of Insulin Secretion Pathways in Pancreatic Islets

Insulin secreted by pancreatic islet ˇ-cells is the principal regulating hormone of glucose metabolism.Disruption of insulin secretion may cause glucose to accumulate in the blood, and result in diabetes mellitus.Although deterministic models of the insulin secretion pathway have been developed, the stochastic aspect of this biological pathway has not been explored. The first step in this direction presented here is a hybrid model of the insulin secretion pathway, in which the delayed rectifying KCchannels are treated as stochastic events. This hybrid model can not only reproduce the oscillation dynamics as the deterministic model does, but can also capture stochastic dynamics that the deterministic model does not. To measure the insulin oscillation system behavior, a probability-based measure is proposed and applied to test the effectiveness of a new remedy.

Cost-effectiveness analysis on COVID-19 surveillance strategy of large-scale sports competition

Background:Nucleic acid test(NAT)could effectively control the spread of COVID-19 caused by large-scale sports competitions.However,quantitative analysis on the appropriate frequency of NAT is scarce,and the cost-effectiveness and necessity of high-frequency NAT remain to be fully explored and validated.This study aims to optimize the COVID-19 surveillance strategies through cost-effectiveness analysis for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games and the upcoming Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games.Methods:A total of 18 scenarios were designed regarding the NAT frequency,symptom monitoring,and strengthening close-contact control.An agent-based stochastic dynamic model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of different NAT scenarios and optimize the surveillance strategies.The dynamics of the proposed model included the arrival and departure of agents,transmission of the disease according to Poisson processes,and quarantine of agents based on regular NATs and symptom onset.Accumulative infections,cost,and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER)were simulated in the frame of the model.ICER was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of different scenarios.Univariate sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the results.Results:In Scenario 16,where the competition-related personnel(CRP)received NAT daily and national sports delegation(NSD)with quarantined infections accepted an additional NAT daily,accumulative infection was 320.90(90 initial infections),the total cost was(United States Dollar)USD 8920000,and the cost of detecting out each infection was USD 27800.Scenario 16 would reduce the total cost by USD 22570000(avoid 569.61 infections),USD 1420000(avoid 47.2 infections)compared with Scenario 10(weekly NAT,strengthened close contact control)and Scenario 7(daily NAT,no strengthened close contact control),respectively.Sensitivity analysis showed that the result was most sensitive to the change in basic reproductive number.Conclusions:High-frequency NATs such as bidaily,daily,and twice a day were cost-effective.NAT daily for CRP with strengthening close-contact control could be prioritized in defense against COVID-19 at large-scale sports competitions.This study could assist policymakers by assessing the cost-effectiveness of NAT scenarios and provide the host country with an optimal COVID-19 surveillance strategy.

Abnormal Effective Connectivity in the Brain is Involved in Auditory Verbal Hallucinations in Schizophrenia

Information flow among auditory and language processing-related regions implicated in the pathophysiology of auditory verbal hallucinations（AVHs） in schizophrenia（SZ） remains unclear. In this study, we used stochastic dynamic causal modeling（s DCM） to quantify connections among the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex（inner speech monitoring）, auditory cortex（auditory processing）, hippocampus（memory retrieval）, thalamus（information filtering）, and Broca＇s area（language production） in 17 first-episode drug-na？¨ve SZ patients with AVHs, 15 without AVHs, and 19 healthy controls using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging.Finally, we performed receiver operating characteristic（ROC） analysis and correlation analysis between image measures and symptoms. s DCM revealed an increasedsensitivity of auditory cortex to its thalamic afferents and a decrease in hippocampal sensitivity to auditory inputs in SZ patients with AVHs. The area under the ROC curve showed the diagnostic value of these two connections to distinguish SZ patients with AVHs from those without AVHs. Furthermore, we found a positive correlation between the strength of the connectivity from Broca＇s area to the auditory cortex and the severity of AVHs. These findings demonstrate, for the first time, augmented AVHspecific excitatory afferents from the thalamus to the auditory cortex in SZ patients, resulting in auditory perception without external auditory stimuli. Our results provide insights into the neural mechanisms underlying AVHs in SZ. This thalamic-auditory cortical-hippocampal dysconnectivity may also serve as a diagnostic biomarker of AVHs in SZ and a therapeutic target based on direct in vivo evidence.