Are life insurance futures a safe haven during COVID‑19?

This study aims to examine whether life insurance futures can serve as a hedge against the COVID-19 pandemic and whether they have the characteristics of a safe haven under the impact of the health shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.We chose three life insurance stock futures in India and one in Taiwan as samples,including the market index of the two countries and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as sample variables.We used the growth rate of COVID-19 cases as the threshold variable,esti-mated the asymmetric threshold vector autoregression model,and found that insur-ance futures in the regime with a significant growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases can hedge against COVID-19 risks;therefore,insurance futures are a safe haven for the market.We further estimated the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model,and the impulse response results showed that insurance futures are a safe haven for COVID-19 pandemic risks.

Toward less invasive coloproctology: The future is out there

Medical care has undergone remarkable improvements over the past few decades.One of the most important innovative breakthroughs in modern medicine is the advent of minimally and less invasive treatments.The trend towards employing less invasive treatment has been vividly shown in the field of gastroenterology,particularly coloproctology.Parallel to foregut interventions,colorectal surgery has shifted towards a minimally invasive approach.Coloproctology,including both medical and surgical management of colorectal diseases,has undergone a remarkable paradigm shift.The treatment of both benign and malignant colorectal conditions has gradually transitioned towards more conservative and less inva-sive approaches.An interesting paradigm shift was the trend to avoid the need for radical resection of rectal cancer altogether in patients who showed complete response to neoadjuvant treatment.The trend of adopting less invasive appro-aches to treat various colorectal conditions does not seem to be stopping soon as further research on novel,more effective and safer methods is ongoing.

Advancements in Humanoid Robots: A Comprehensive Review and Future Prospects

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the current status, advancements, and future prospects of humanoid robots, highlighting their significance in driving the evolution of next-generation industries. By analyzing various research endeavors and key technologies, encompassing ontology structure,control and decision-making, and perception and interaction, a holistic overview of the current state of humanoid robot research is presented. Furthermore, emerging challenges in the field are identified, emphasizing the necessity for a deeper understanding of biological motion mechanisms, improved structural design,enhanced material applications, advanced drive and control methods, and efficient energy utilization. The integration of bionics, brain-inspired intelligence, mechanics, and control is underscored as a promising direction for the development of advanced humanoid robotic systems. This paper serves as an invaluable resource, offering insightful guidance to researchers in the field,while contributing to the ongoing evolution and potential of humanoid robots across diverse domains.

Thornthwaite moisture index and depth of suction change under current and future climate‒An Australian study

Climate change is one of the major global challenges and it can have a significant influence on the behaviour and resilience of geotechnical structures.The changes in moisture content in soil lead to effective stress changes and can be accompanied by significant volume changes in reactive/expansive soils.The volume change leads to ground movement and can exert additional stresses on structures founded on or within a shallow depth of such soils.Climate change is likely to amplify the ground movement potential and the associated problems are likely to worsen.The effect of atmospheric boundary interaction on soil behaviour has often been correlated to Thornthwaite moisture index(TMI).In this study,the long-term weather data and anticipated future projections for various emission scenarios were used to generate a series of TMI maps for Australia.The changes in TMI were then correlated to the depth of suction change(H s),an important input in ground movement calculation.Under all climate scenarios considered,reductions in TMI and increases in H s values were observed.A hypothetical design scenario of a footing on expansive soil under current and future climate is discussed.It is observed that a design that might be considered adequate under the current climate scenario,may fail under future scenarios and accommodations should be made in the design for such events.

Traction power systems for electrified railways:evolution,state of the art,and future trends

Traction power systems(TPSs)play a vital role in the operation of electrified railways.The transformation of conventional railway TPSs to novel structures is not only a trend to promote the development of electrified railways toward high-efficiency and resilience but also an inevitable requirement to achieve carbon neutrality target.On the basis of sorting out the power supply structures of conventional AC and DC modes,this paper first reviews the characteristics of the existing TPSs,such as weak power supply flexibility and low-energy efficiency.Furthermore,the power supply structures of various TPSs for future electrified railways are described in detail,which satisfy longer distance,low-carbon,high-efficiency,high-reliability and high-quality power supply requirements.Meanwhile,the application prospects of different traction modes are discussed from both technical and economic aspects.Eventually,this paper introduces the research progress of mixed-system electrified railways and traction power supply technologies without catenary system,speculates on the future development trends and challenges of TPSs and predicts that TPSs will be based on the continuous power supply mode,employing power electronic equipment and intelligent information technology to construct a railway comprehensive energy system with renewable energy.

China’s Change through Future Leaders’Eyes

Together for a Shared Future Compiled by Global Young Leaders Dialogue Price:RMB 118 Paperback,250 pages Published by Foreign Languages Press Together for a Shared Future is co-authored by 35 young people from 26 countries who participated in the project China Tour of the Global Young Leaders Dialogue(GYLD),an institutional platform for idea-sharing among young people from different countries.

Emerging molecules,tools,technology,and future of surgical knife in gastroenterology

The 21^(st) century has started with several innovations in the medical sciences,with wide applications in health care management.This development has taken in the field of medicines(newer drugs/molecules),various tools and technology which has completely changed the patient management including abdominal surgery.Surgery for abdominal diseases has moved from maximally invasive to minimally invasive(laparoscopic and robotic)surgery.Some of the newer medicines have its impact on need for surgical intervention.This article focuses on the development of these emerging molecules,tools,and technology and their impact on present surgical form and its future effects on the surgical intervention in gastroenterological diseases.

An Exploration of the Three Dimensions and Epochal Strengths of Building a Human Community With a Shared Future

The idea of a human community with a shared future was proposed by the Communist Party of China(CPC)Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core for the future development of human beings to face up to the most important question in today's world:“What is happening to the world and what should we do?”It profoundly answers the question of the world,history,and the times.The theory of a human community with a shared future is an innovative theory with a multidimensional formation logic that guides humanity toward continually seeking common interests and values.This paper dives into the profound motivations behind building a human community with a shared future from historical,cultural,and practical dimensions and analyzes its epochal value from both domestic and international perspectives.This not only helps exert China's role in the international community,contributing Chinese strength to the construction of a peaceful,stable,and prosperous human society,but also enhances the influence of the idea of a human community with a shared future in the international community,accelerating the building of a human community with a shared future that considers the legitimate concerns of all countries,and aiding in solving the crises facing the world.

Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.

电子学习与远程教育的实践、创新、未来——第6届“Learning Futures Festival”在线国际会议综述

2011年4月第6届"Learning Futures Festival"在线国际会议召开。会议采用英国、美国、澳大利亚三个时区国家接力的方式完成。与会专家学者特别关注开放教育资源及Web2.0背景下的教育创新。未来10年全球高等教育面临巨大的增长需求,开放教育资源运动的推进,将可能出现开放教育资源大学。开放共享理念逐步深入人心,Web2.0在教育和企业领域的广泛应用将改变人们的学习和工作环境,学习者和企业员工应当提升自我的数字素养技能以激发自身的创新潜能。我国远程教育面临资源可重用性较低和开放性不足等问题,在今后的发展中应借鉴发展中国家远程教育院校和企业学习的成功经验,加强教育资源开放共享的程度,整合电子学习技术在远程教育中的创新应用,以满足学习者个性化的学习需求。

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response fimction and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

The Spillover Effect between Futures and Spot Price of Agricultural Products:A Case Study of Soybean Products of China

Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures and spot price of agricultural products of China. According to this study,there were mean spillover effect and two-way volatility spillover effect in futures and spot price of soybean,soybean oil,and soybean meal; soybean futures prices significantly guided the spot price; in the price linkage between the types,the price relationship between the soybean meal and soybean was closer than between the soybean oil and soybean.

Analysis of Financial Derivatives by Mechanical Method (Ⅰ)——Basic Equation of Price of Index Futures

Similar to the method of continuum mechanics, the variation of the price of index futures is viewed to be continuous and regular. According to the characteristic of index futures, a basic equation of price of index futures was established. It is a differential equation, its solution shows that the relation between time and price forms a logarithmic circle. If the time is thought of as the probability of its corresponding price, then such a relation is perfectly coincided with the main assumption of the famous formula of option pricing, based on statistical theory, established by Black and Scholes, winner of 1997 Nobel’ prize on economy. In that formula, the probability of price of basic assets (they stand for index futures here) is assummed to be a logarithmic normal distribution. This agreement shows that the same result may be obtained by two analytic methods with different bases. However, the result, given by assumption by Black_Scholes, is derived from the solution of the differential equation.

Relationship of Margin Rule and Volatility in Chinese Copper Futures Markets

Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open interest, another candidate in the margin rule, is also included in our model to investigate its necessity as one of the factors of the rise of margin rates. With the popular copper contract in Shanghai Futures Exchange （ SHFE）, our test results suggest that margin levels have a significant positive effect on volatility, yet open interest has little to do with volatility. The implication is that the rise of margin rate approaching maturity virtually deteriorates the degree of market risks, and open interest is not a necessary factor for the margin rule. It indicates that the policy tool, represented by margin rates, has significantly greater influence on volatility than the market element, represented by open interest.

Empirical Study on Arbitrage Opportunities in China Copper Futures Market

No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are many lower bound arbitrage opportunities in China copper futures market from August 8th, 2003 to August 16th, 2005, Concretely, no-arbitrage opportunity is dominant and lower bound arbitrage is narrow in normal market segment. Lower bound arbitrage almost always exists with huge magnitude in inverted market segment. There is basically no-arbitrage in normal market because spot volume is enough, so that upper or lower bound arbi- trage can be realized, There is mostly lower bound arbitrage in inverted market because spot volume is lack.

Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH‑MIDAS model

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.

Study on spillover effect of copper futures between LME and SHFE using wavelet multiresolution analysis

Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange(LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange(SHFE) ,however,possible correlation between the future price and return on different time scales have been ignored. In this paper,wavelet multiresolution decomposition is used to investigate the spillover effects of copper future returns between the two markets. The daily return time series are decomposed on 2n(n=1,…,6) frequency bands through wavelet mul-tiresolution analysis. The correlation between the two markets is studied with decomposed data. It is shown that high frequency detail components represent much more energy than low-frequency smooth components. The relation between copper future daily returns in LME and that in SHFE are different on different time scales. The fluctuations of the copper future daily returns in LME have large effect on that in SHFE in 32-day scale,but small effect in high frequency scales. It also has evidence that strong effects exist between LME and SHFE for monthly responses of the copper futures but not for daily responses.

Forecast on Price of Agricultural Futures in China Based on ARIMA Model

The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.

Price Discovery Function of Agricultural Futures Market in China--Based on VECM-PT-IS and DCC-MGARCH-t models

Agricultural futures market plays an important role in financial system,and its function of price discovery and hedging is of great significance to the long-term price stability for agricultural products.However,in China,agricultural futures market is still in construction stage,and scholars have not fully studied its price discovery function.Hence,this study will investigate the price discovery function of China agricultural futures market.The causal relationship,price contribution degree and volatility spillover effect of futures and spot markets are studied by comparing the price discovery function of soybean,yellow corn and soybean oil futures and spot.Taking the average daily settlement price of futures and spot in Dalian Commodity Exchange as study objects,the VECM and PT-IS model is used to investigate the causal relationship and the difference in price contribution between them.Then DDC-MGARCH-t model is used to analyze their volatility spillover effect.The empirical results show that there is obvious mutual guiding relationship between agricultural futures and spot market,and the price contribution of futures is significantly higher than that of spot,proving that agricultural futures have the function of price discovery.Meanwhile,the volatility spillover effect between agricultural futures and spot is bidirectional.The impact of internal fluctuations is often greater than that of external shocks.