On stress-forecasting strategy of earthquakes from stress buildup,stress shadow and stress transfer(SSS) based on numerical approach

Global Positioning System （GPS） and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （InSAR）, used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer （SSS）, is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.

Variational characteristics of shear-wave splitting on the 2001 Shidian earthquakes in Yunnan, China

In 2001 three earthquakes occurred in Shidian in Yunnan Province, which were the MS=5.2 on April 10, the MS=5.9 on April 12 and the MS=5.3 on June 8. Based on the data from the station Baoshan of Yunnan Telemetry Digital Seismograph Network, the variational characteristics of shear-wave splitting on these series of strong earthquakes has been studied by using the systematic analysis method (SAM) of shear-wave splitting. The result shows the time delays of shear-wave splitting basically increase with earthquake activity intensifying. However the time delays abruptly decrease immediately before strong aftershocks. It accords with the stress relaxation before earthquakes, which was found recently in study on shear-wave splitting. The result suggests it is significant for reducing the harm degree of earthquakes to develop the stress-forecasting on earthquake in strong active tectonic zones and economic developed regions or big cities under the danger of strong earthquakes.

Evidence supporting New Geophysics

In the last decade a New Geophysics has been proposed,whereby the crust and uppermost ~400 km of the mantle of the Earth are so pervaded by closely-spaced stress-aligned microcracks(intergranular films of hydrated melt in the mantle) that in situ rocks verge on failure by fracturing,and hence are critical-systems that impose a range of fundamentally-new properties on conventional sub-critical geophysics.Enough of these new properties have been observed to confirm that New Geophysics is a new understanding of fluid/rock deformation with important implications and applications.Evidence supporting New Geophysics has been published in a wide variety of publications.Here,for clarification,we summarise in one document the evidence supporting New Geophysics.