期刊文献+
共找到1篇文章
< 1 >
每页显示 20 50 100
Improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting through ensemble prediction system at NCMRWF in India 被引量:1
1
作者 Anumeha Dube Raghavendra Ashrit +1 位作者 Sushant Kumar Ashu Mamgain 《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》 2020年第2期106-116,共11页
This paper deals with the comparison of cyclone forecasts from the two versions of the operational global ensemble prediction system(EPS)at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NEPS).The previous v... This paper deals with the comparison of cyclone forecasts from the two versions of the operational global ensemble prediction system(EPS)at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NEPS).The previous version had a horizontal resolution of 33 km with 44 ensemble members(NEPS)whereas the updated version of this EPS has a resolution of 12 km with 11 members(NEPS-UP).The ensemble mean forecasts from both the models are compared using the direct position(DPE),along(ATE)and cross track(CTE)errors.For the verification of strike probability,Brier Score(BS),Brier Skill Score(BSS),Reliability Diagram,Relative Operating Characteristic(ROC)Curve and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)in mean Vs Spread in members are used.For verification of intensity,RMSE in maximum wind speed from the ensemble mean forecasts are compared.Comparison of ensemble mean tracks from both models showed lower errors in NEPS-UP for all forecast lead times.The decrease in the DPE,ATE and CTE in NEPS-UP was around 38%,48%and 15%respectively.NEPS-UP showed lower BS and higher BSS values indicating a better match between observed frequencies and forecast probabilities as well as higher prediction skills.The reliability diagram showed higher accuracy for NEPS-UP as compared to NEPS.The ROC curves showed that for forecasts with higher probabilities the hit rate was high in NEPSUP.There was a greater consensus between the RMSE and Spread for NEPS-UP at all lead times.It was also seen that the RMSE in mean showed a 41%decrease from NEPS to NEPS-UP.On comparing maximum wind,it was found that for all lead times the RMSE in maximum wind speed for NEPS-UP was lower than NEPS. 展开更多
关键词 ENSEMBLE Tropical cyclones strike probability Tropical cyclone location verification Intensity verification
原文传递
上一页 1 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部