Relationship between the earthquake sequences of Tangshan and Xingtai and the three dimensional velocity structure──Discussion on predicting strong earthquakes of swarm-type

In this paper, based on the results of tomographic image of Tangshan and Xingtai areas, the relations between thecharacteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences and their three-dimensional velocity structures are studied.The research results indicate that:① Mosaic distribution of low-velocity bodies and high-velocity bodies, especially the existence of high-velocity bodies with large size in crust are the common basis of development of thetwo earthquake sequences. ② Scale, depth, and heterogeneity of high-velocity and low-velocity bodies are theimportant factors to effect the characteristic of earthquake sequences. ③ The depth of the high-velocity body inTangshan area is less than that in Xingtai area, which is the principal reason why the dominant focal depth and thebiggest focal depth of Tangshan earthquake sequence are less than Xingtai's. ④ The depth of the high-velocitybodies in Ninghe area is more than that in Tangshan-Luanxian area, which lead to the biggest magnitude and epicentral intensity are lower. These results could be helpful for predicting the main shock of strong swarm-typeearthquakes and later strong aftershocks.

3-D finite element modeling for evolution of stress field and interaction among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Based on the latest achievement about activities of geological structure, a 3-D finite-element model containing four layers of upper crust, lower crust (two layers) and upper mantle is established in the paper. By repeated tests and revisions, the boundary conditions of the model are determined. And then the background stress field, the stress field caused by fault creep and the stress field triggered by strong earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region, as well as their dynamic variations are calculated. The results indicate that the latter earthquake often occurs in the area with positive Coulomb rupture stress change associated with the former one, the former earthquake has a triggering effect on the latter one to a certain extent, and strong earthquake often occur in groups under the background of high stress, which is of great significance for distinguishing seismic anomalies, as well as for improving the level of earthquake prediction.

Segmentations of active normal dip-slip faults around Ordos block according to their surface ruptures in historical strong earthquakes

From the results of researches of active faults in resent years, a correlation analysis between segments of the faults according to surface ruptures in nine historical strong earthquakes occurring in downfaulted system and active structures around Ordos block is conducted in paper. The result shows that there is a good correlation between them, except few individual data that have more uncertain parameters. It shows that intensity and segments of surface ruptures in these strong earthquakes are intrinsically related with the active structures. These strong earthquakes produced stable and unstable rupture boundaries of characteristic-earthquake type and successive occurrence of strong earthquakes on the different boundary faults in the same tectonic unit.

Analysis on the master event method and precise location of 1997 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm in western China

Master event location method was described in detail in this paper. Some problems in the application of master event method have been analyzed and some improvements of the method have been made. As compared the location results of MS>=3.0 earthquakes of Jiashi swarm obtained by using this method with that by the traditional absolute method, the result obtained by using the master event method shows more reasonable and more consistent with that from the focal mechanism solutions. After relocation, we can see, the epicenters of M>=5.0 earthquakes show an echelon-type alignment along NNW-SSE direction, and all earthquakes concentrate nearly in a volume region about 30 km (N-S) × 15 km (E-W) × 15 km (U-D). Earthquake focal depths are mainly in the range of 15-28 km.

Tomographic determination of the upper crustal structure in the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm region

A three-dimensional temporary seismic transmission array was arranged in a 50x60 km2 region around Jiashi strong earthquake swarm to receive seismic waves generated by 8 fires from different azimuths. With the inversion method without model blocks and using P and S reflections from Moho at critical distances, the 3-D images of P, S velocity perturbation and ratio vP/vS perturbation of the upper crust under the seismic array were reconstructed. Meanwhile, the seismicity of the Jiashi earthquake swarm was taken into consideration in the analysis of the seismogenesis. The results indicate that the upper crustal structure under the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm region is characterized by significant inhomogeneity both laterally and vertically. From 12 km depth, it is clear that there is an NNW-oriented high P-wave velocity anomalous body corresponding to the epicenter of the swarm with low-velocity anomaly around it, which is the direct cause of the strong earthquakes. High vP/vS is distributed in the same location, which may indicate the decline of shear strength of the source region owing to relative softness of the medium, this can be accounted as an explanation for the seismicity feature of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm.

Statistical analysis on temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity

In order to unify the time and the space attributes into temporal-spatial distance, the temporal-spatial proportional coefficient fTS is proposed in this paper. In accordance with the new distance concept, the temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity since AD 1500 has been analyzed. The computation results indicate that doublets of strong earthquake can be divided into two groups when fTS is endowed with 10 km/a in the new distance formula. The temporal-spatial distance between two points of doublet generally cannot exceed 140 km when two strong quakes in doublet have some causative relation. And those doublets with temporal-spatial distance exceeding 280 km are probably independent seismic events in doublets. This character can be the reference to the migration law summarization and trend prediction.

Preliminary analysis for the roles of crustal low-velocity and high-conductivity body in process of strong earthquake preparation

In this paper, the roles of low velocity and high conductivity body inside the crust in the process of strong earth quake preparation are approached by using theoretical analysis method based on the comprehensive researches on the fine structure of strong seismic source in the North China. The following results are obtained. The low-velocity and high-conductivity body plays the promoting role for the action of deep-seated structure in the medium stage of earthquake preparation, except that its existence is advantageous to the stress concentrating in the overlying brittle layer during the process of earthquake preparation. And it plays the triggering role for the occurrence of strong earthquake in the later stage of earthquake preparation.

The characteristics of variation in inhomo geneity of temporalspatial distribution of short to imminent precursors before strong earthquakes

C_v is used in this paper to describe the variation in inhomogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution of precur sors. The inhomogeneous variation in the spatial and temporal distribution of the anomalies in water radon and electromagnetic waves before M_s≈6 earthquakes in northern North China is analyzed in detail. Results show that before a moderate to strong earthquake, the distribution of anomalies in water radon and electromagnetic waves changes inhomogeneously, i.e., C_v increases significantly. The inhomogeneity in spatial distribution of short-to- imminent precursors increases before a strong earthquake, which may relates to the enhancement of crustal strain field. The research will not only help us to know more about the process of seismogeny and to improve practical earthquake prediction, but also blaze a new way to do earthquake prediction with present precursor data.

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong moderate earthquake activity within and near China(Dec., 2002～Jan., 2003)

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the Preliminary Seismological Report of ChineseSeismic Stations (abbreviated to Monthly Report).The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 inand near China and M≥6 all over the world.The Monthly Report is monthly complied by theNinth Section of Institute of Geophysics,CSB.

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China （August, 2005-September, 2005）

All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ＂Preliminary Seismological Report of Chinese Seismic Stations＂ （Its abbreviation is ＂Monthly Report＂）. The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The ＂Monthly Report＂ is monthly compiled by the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, China EarthQuake Administration.

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

Recurrence anomaly of ground water behavior before strong earthquakes in North China

By analyzing the relationship between ground water behavior and strong seismic activity during the past more than 20 years in North China, we have found similar water level descending variation of a part of wells in the short-term stage before several strong earthquakes. The characteristics of anomaly are: at the beginning, water level dropped abruptly or accelerated to drop; then it turned to slow rising with a smaller amplitude than that of descending; earthquakes occurred during the slow-rising process of water level, and at that time or before earthquake occurrence, water level rose with a large amplitude. Among more than 100 wells in North China, the descending anomalies were not recorded for many times, but similar variation processes of water level were noted at different wells before several strong earthquakes, which proves that seismic precursory anomalies of ground water are of certain recurrence features, occurring repeatedly before different strong earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the genesis of this type of anomaly and its relationship with strong seismic activity.

On correlation between seismic activities and focal mechanisms of subsequent strong earthquakes

On the basis of the results from spatial-temporal scanning of moderate seismic activities prior to 63 strong earth- quakes occurred since 1966, we investigate in this paper the characteristics of anomalous evolution of moderate seismic activities prior to strong earthquakes with different focal mechanisms in different tectonic blocks, as well as the correlation between principal seismic activities and nodal planes of focal mechanisms. The research results indicate that the moderate seismic activities prior to strong earthquakes display two significant stages of stress concentration and stress weakening, which are consistent to the evolvement of local tectonic stress field. The first stage, defined as medium-term stage, is characterized by seismic belts, seismic gaps and centralized activities; The second stage, defined as short-term stage, is predominated by continuous quiescence. For the earthquakes occurred on the strike-slip and normal faults, the two stages are relatively evident; while for the earthquakes occurred on the thrust faults, there are not characteristic images and seismic quiescence in both stages. The spatial distribution of moderate shock belts before strong earthquakes show a good coherence with that of the two nodal planes of focal mechanisms, while the spatial distribution of seismic gaps enclosed by moderate shocks display a poor coherence with the nodal planes.

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake ac-tivity within and near China (April,2006～May,2006)

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ＂Preliminary Seismological Report of Chinese Seismic Stations＂ （Its abbreviation is ＂Monthly Report＂）. The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The ＂Monthly Report＂ is monthly compiled bv the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China (June, 2006～July,2006)

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ＂Preliminary Seismological Report of Chinese Seismic Stations＂ （Its abbreviation is ＂Monthly Report＂）. The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The ＂Monthly Report＂ is monthly compiled by the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.