THE ANALYSIS ON THE STATISTICAL CHARACTER OF QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND STRONG WIND FREQUENCY USING REMOTE SENSOR DATA FROM QUIKSCAT

The statistical character of QuikSCAT scatterometer winds is showed. And Monthly change and special distribution character of strong wind frequency and monthly wind fields in South China Sea is analyzed. It is shown in the result that the QuikSCAT scatterometer winds can be relied upon for the South China Sea; two winds, one the wintertime northeasterly and the other summertime southwesterly. The northeasterly centers at the Bashi Strait and Taiwam Strait and its secondary center and the maximum center of the southwesterly are in the central and southern South China Sea.

A Tangential Wind Profile for Simulating Strong Tropical Cyclones with MM5

A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCAR- AFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which on- ly the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones’ intensity can be obvi- ously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.

Evaluation of survival stow position and stability analysis for heliostat under strong wind

Heliostats are sensitive to the wind load, thus as a key indicator, the study on the static and dynamic stability bearing capacity for heliostats is very important. In this work, a numerical wind tunnel was established to calculate the wind load coefficients in various survival stow positions. In order to explore the best survival stow position for the heliostat under the strong wind, eigenvalue buckling analysis method was introduced to predict the critical wind load theoretically. Considering the impact of the nonlinearity and initial geometrical imperfection, the nonlinear post-buckling behaviors of the heliostat were investigated by load-displacement curves in the full equilibrium process. Eventually, combining B-R criterion with equivalent displacement principle the dynamic critical wind speed and load amplitude coefficient were evaluated. The results show that the determination for the best survival stow position is too hasty just by the wind load coefficients. The geometric nonlinearity has a great effect on the stability bearing capacity of the heliostat, while the effects of the material nonlinearity and initial geometrical imperfection are relatively small. And the heliostat is insensitive to the initial geometrical imperfection. In addition, the heliostat has the highest safety factor for wind-resistant performance in the stow position of 90-90 which can be taken as the best survival stow position. In this case, the extreme survival wind speeds for the static and dynamic stability are 150 m/s and 36 m/s, respectively.

Analysis of Special Strong Wind and Severe Rainstorm Caused by Typhoon Rammasun in Guangxi, China

Based on conventional meteorological observation data, NCEP 1° × 1° reanalysis data, reanalysis data with resolution 0.75° × 0.75° from ECMWF and Doppler weather radar, we analyzed the weather conditions and physical characteristics of Super Typhoon Rammasun (1409), which caused special strong wind and severe rainstorm in Guangxi. The results show that: 1) Typhoon Rammasun offshore sudden strengthening in one of the main reasons was that loop pressure ridge superimposed into the westward extension of subtropical high, to making enable rapid strengthening of the subtropical high, so the subtropical high advanced faster than the Rammasun move, Rammasun center of the subtropical high distance reduced and the gradient increased;2) Rammasun northward to south china coast with plenty of vapor following ITCZ, before landing, southwest monsoon and cross-equatorial flow were involved, Rammasun got latent heat of monsoon jet, enabling it to strengthen in offshore;3) Rammasun from the Qiongzhou Strait into the northern Gulf, therefore the Strait of short passages and both sides belong to the low zone, friction consumption smaller, that was the main reason what was able to maintain the strength of the super typhoon, when Rammasun into the Beibu Gulf;4) Diagnostic analysis shows that Rammasun before entering the northern Gulf and into the Beibu Gulf later, vorticity weakened, divergence and vapor flux divergence changed were smaller, meanwhile, vertical ascent speed and latent heat transport both increased, which was important reason of severe rainstorm caused by Rammasun.

Numerical Prediction of Strong Wind Induced by Topographic Effect

This paper describes the numerical study of nonstratified airflow over a real complex terrain. Attention is focused on the mechanism of a local strong wind induced by a topographic effect. In order to clarify the mechanism of the occurrence of strong winds accompanied by the effects of terrain, the use of a numerical simulation is very effective, in which conditions can be set without the influence of ground roughness and temperature distribution. As a result, airflow converged to a small basin of mountain terrain in the upper stream, and local strong wind was generated leeward along the slope of the mountain terrain. Furthermore, the influence of the reproduction accuracy of geographical features, that is, horizontal grid resolution, was examined. Consequently, to reproduce the above-mentioned local strong wind, it was shown that horizontal grid resolution from 50 m to about 100 m was necessary.

Determination method of load balance ranges for train operation safety under strong wind

The aerodynamic performances of a passenger car and a box car with different heights of windbreak walls under strong wind were studied using the numerical simulations, and the changes of aerodynamic side force, lift force and overturning moment with different wind speeds and wall heights were calculated. According to the principle of static moment balance of vehicles, the overturning coefficients of trains with different wind speeds and wall heights were obtained. Based on the influence of wind speed and wall height on the aerodynamic performance and the overturning stability of trains, a method of determination of the load balance ranges for the train operation safety was proposed, which made the overturning coefficient have nearly closed interval. A min(|A1|+|A2|), s.t. |A1|→|A2|(A1 refers to the downwind overturning coefficient and A2 refers to the upwind overturning coefficient)was found. This minimum value helps to lower the wall height as much as possible, and meanwhile, guarantees the operation safety of various types of trains under strong wind. This method has been used for the construction and improvement of the windbreak walls along the Lanzhou–Xinjiang railway(from Lanzhou to Urumqi, China).

Short-Term Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System under Strong Wind and Rain

The impact of strong wind and rain loads will adversely affect the reliability of the overhead lines, it’s necessary to study changes in risk of transmission system and establish the reliability model of overhead lines through the strong wind and rain loads. In this article, the stochastic properties of overhead lines’ strength and loads were used, according to principles of structural reliability, time-dependent failure probability model of overhead lines was established under the impact of strong wind and rain loads. Simulation of the IEEE-79 system demonstrates that failure probability model is effective. This simulation result also shows that the impact of strong wind and rain loads will seriously affect reliability indices of system loads, rain loads cannot be ignored under strong wind and rain loads.

Non-stationary Buffeting Response Analysis of Long Span Suspension Bridge Under Strong Wind Loading

The non-stationary buffeting response of long span suspension bridge in time domain under strong wind loading is computed. Modeling method for generating non-stationary fluctuating winds with probabilistic model for non-stationary strong wind fields is first presented. Non-stationary wind forces induced by strong winds on bridge deck and tower are then given a brief introduction. Finally,Non-stationary buffeting response of Pulite Bridge in China,a long span suspension bridge,is computed by using ANSYS software under four working conditions with different combination of time-varying mean wind and time-varying variance. The case study further confirms that it is necessity of considering non-stationary buffeting response for long span suspension bridge under strong wind loading,rather than only stationary buffeting response.

Numerical modelling of the sea level under the actions of the tide and strong wind in the Bohai Sea

In this paper, the numerical modelling of the tidal level and current in the Bohai Sea was carried out with ADI method, by taking the sum of four main tidal components M2,S2K2,O1 as the open boundary condition. The calculated values were consistent with the predicted ones (the observed values in the case of calm) in the Tidal Table. On the basis of the modelling of the tide, the sea level and current fields under the effects of strong wind were simulated. The calculated results were also quite satisfactory.

A DYNAMICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE WIND FIELD IN TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF OROGRAPHIC FACTORS

Based on the barotropic primitive equation in the polar coordinate system and the appropriate assumption, we obtained the mathematical equation of orographic forcing on unit mass air parcel. With the consideration of the frictional stress of the sea and land, supposing that parcel velocity in tropical cyclones is in linear variation and that the distribution of surface pressure is circular, a set of equations are derived, which describe the impact of orographic slope error, the central pressure error and position error of tropical cyclones on the wind field in the tropical cyclone. Typhoon Wipha (2007) is selected to verify the above interpretation method. The results show that the orographic slope, the frictional coefficient, the intensity and position of the cyclone are the important factors which have great influence on the interpretation of wind information about tropical cyclones. The dynamic interpretation method gives very good results, especially for the coastal area. It is applicable to improving the forecasts of the wind field in tropical cyclones.

A DYNAMICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE WIND FIELD IN TROPICAL CYCLONES

Based on the primitive equations in polar coordinates and with the supposition that parcel velocity in tropical cyclones is in linear variation and that the distribution of surface pressure agrees with the Fujita formula, a set of equations are derived, which describe the impact of perturbations of central pressure, position of tropical cyclones, direction and velocity of movement of tropical cyclones on the wind field. It is proved that the second order approximation of the kinetic energy of tropical cyclones can be described by the equations under linear approximation. Typhoon Wipha (2007) is selected to verify the above interpretation method, and the results show that the interpretation method of the wind field could give very good results before the landfall of tropical cyclones, while making no apparent improvement after the landfall. The dynamical interpretation method in this paper is applicable to improving the forecasts of the wind field of tropical cyclones close to the coast.

Interannual Weakening of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation Due to Strong Tropical Volcanism

In order to examine the response of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation（PWC） to strong tropical volcanic eruptions（SVEs）, we analyzed a three-member long-term simulation performed with Had CM3, and carried out four additional CAM4 experiments. We found that the PWC shows a significant interannual weakening after SVEs. The cooling effect from SVEs is able to cool the entire tropics. However, cooling over the Maritime Continent is stronger than that over the central-eastern tropical Pacific. Thus, non-uniform zonal temperature anomalies can be seen following SVEs. As a result, the sea level pressure gradient between the tropical Pacific and the Maritime Continent is reduced, which weakens trade winds over the tropical Pacific. Therefore, the PWC is weakened during this period. At the same time, due to the cooling subtropical and midlatitude Pacific, the Intertropical Convergence Zone（ITCZ） and South Pacific convergence zone（SPCZ） are weakened and shift to the equator. These changes also contribute to the weakened PWC. Meanwhile, through the positive Bjerknes feedback, weakened trade winds cause El Nino-like SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific, which in turn further influence the PWC. Therefore, the PWC significantly weakens after SVEs. The CAM4 experiments further confirm the influences from surface cooling over the Maritime Continent and subtropical/midlatitude Pacific on the PWC. Moreover, they indicate that the stronger cooling over the Maritime Continent plays a dominant role in weakening the PWC after SVEs. In the observations,a weakened PWC and a related El Nino-like SST pattern can be found following SVEs.

高速列车弓网受流系统放电实验平台设计

为掌握外环境下高速列车的运行特点,开展弓网电弧变化特性研究,该文设计并研制了高速列车弓网受流系统放电实验平台,其风洞系统由风洞结构、风扇转子系统、风洞控制系统、弓网电弧发生系统、观测系统组成。测试结果表明:低速直流风洞风速可达50 m/s,湍流度低于1%,速度不均匀性小于1%,流场稳定性不超过1%,气流偏角不超过0.5°,满足《低速风洞和高速风洞流场品质要求》(GJB 1179A—2012)中所规定的参数指标。该系统为探究强气流场环境下弓网电弧物理特性的变化规律提供了良好的实验环境,可为高速运行环境下列车弓网电弧研究提供参考数据。

强风作用下输电线路的脱冰响应研究

在强风作用下,输电线路的脱冰过程会产生冲击效应并缩短相间距离,极大增加了电气事故发生的可能性。该文基于新疆某线路局部区段的实际参数,建立强风作用下“导线-绝缘子”的脱冰响应有限元模型,分析了在不同风速、风攻角条件下输电线路脱冰档最大弧垂处的位移、不平衡动张力和各相间的最小距离。结果表明:风攻角对异形覆冰导线的气动系数与风载增大系数存在明显影响;在强风条件下的动张力幅值具有超过设计抗拉强度的情况,存在断线的可能;强风作用下输电线路的脱冰过程相较其初始构型位置是一种向上偏斜的位移过程,存在相间距离显著减小情况,运行时放电风险的概率远远超过无风脱冰工况。该文针对强风作用的输电线路进行研究,探究了复杂工况下的脱冰响应特征和运行时的放电风险,为输电线路在强风天气下进行紧急防冰、除冰技术提供一定的参考。

大风区高速铁路路基双侧挡风墙周围沙粒沉积数值模拟研究

兰新高速铁路横穿多个大风区,对其安全运营造成严重影响。为降低强风对线路的危害,在大风区修筑大量防风构筑物,其中以路基挡风墙最为常见,挡风墙降低了风害的影响,但是带来严重的线路积沙问题。通过数值模拟研究不同风速下路基双侧挡风墙周围的流场特征,利用风产生的壁面剪切应力与沙粒剪切应力的比值确定地表沙粒沉积与侵蚀类型。研究发现,气流在两道挡风墙之间分别形成一个顺时针涡流和一个逆时针涡流,在第二道挡风墙背风侧形成一个顺时针大涡,随着来流风速增大,漩涡尺寸和涡流强度均在增大;由于涡流的存在,部分沙粒被卷走,路堤背风坡附近以及路基面上的沙粒沉积显著减少,当来流风速为24、30 m/s时,南北侧线路道床面均出现沙粒反向侵蚀;单双侧挡风墙的积沙规律对比结果表明,设置双侧挡风墙时,线路积沙显著减少。研究揭示了大风区铁路双侧挡风墙周围路基面上的沙粒沉积规律,对未来风区铁路的防护建设具有指导意义。

基于综合优属度的大风区高速铁路线路方案优选研究

为了应对西部路网扩张过程中必须面临的大风环境高铁建造问题,从问题的本源出发,研究选线设计与大风环境的耦合关系,建立科学的决策模型成为实现高速铁路高质量建设的关键内容。通过分析大风区高速铁路线路方案设计的主要影响因素并参考选线原则,从工程技术、生态环境、防风工程和社会效益4个方面选取22项指标,建立大风区高速铁路线路方案优选的多层次指标体系。采用三角模糊数对定性指标量化后,引入最佳去模糊性能值的方法将其转化为精确数,并融合粗糙集理论中的属性约简算法与信息熵理论,根据属性重要度将冗余或不重要的属性去除,实现初选指标的筛选。为使结果既能反映决策者的主观经验,又能反映指标数据的客观真实性,同时兼顾数据的变异和相互影响程度,分别采用G2法和CRITIC法进行主、客观赋权,并引入最优卡方距离的思想计算最终权重。最后,统筹考虑距离相似性和几何相似性维度,采用靶心距确定距离优属度以及与集合曲线趋势变化的趋同程度确定几何优属度,建立基于综合优属度的大风区高速铁路线路方案决策模型,并结合工程实例对模型进行验证。结果表明,基于本模型的大风区高速铁路方案的决策结果与工程实际具有较好的一致性,验证了模型的可靠性和适用性,为大风区高铁线路方案优化设计提供一定的理论支持。

川藏铁路四川段沿线强风特征及其危险性评估

强风是影响川藏铁路安全建设与运营的主要气象灾害之一.为减轻或避免强风灾害对川藏铁路建设与运营安全的影响,以四川段为例,利用200余个地面区域自动气象站2009-2022年的10 m高度测风数据,分析了川藏铁路四川段沿线强风分布特征,并根据强风对施工期与运营期的不同影响,分别建立不同评估指标评估其强风危险性.研究结果表明:泸定县以西路段受高原地形影响,强风频次较高,大部路段各月大风日数超过5 d,年均极大风速超过10.0 m/s,极大风速盛行风向以偏北风为主,其中理塘和春季分别是大风日数最多的路段和时段.泸定县以东路段受盆地地形影响,强风频次较低,全年大风日数可忽略不计,年均极大风速为5.0~10.0 m/s,全年极大风速盛行风向以偏东风为主.川藏铁路四川段沿线施工期与运营期强风危险性等级分布较为一致,其中较高及以上等级区域均集中于雅江县西部至理塘县路段.基于区域自动气象站数据开展川藏铁路沿线强风特征及其危险性分析更加精细,可为川藏铁路四川段建设与运营期的强风防灾减灾提供参考.

寒潮大风及海冰对北方港口波浪推算的影响

为了探究冬季极端天气及海况对北方港口波浪推算的影响,以黄骅港为例,建立能够综合考虑海冰和寒潮大风影响的波浪数值模型。与实测值相比,模拟的黄骅港外航道口门处有效波高最大值和平均值分别偏大0.41%和偏小5.46%,且演化趋势基本吻合。结果表明,港内2018年寒潮大浪致灾地点处考虑海冰、强风及波浪绕射与反射影响的有效波高最大值为1.14 m。通过敏感性分析可知,港内波浪推算过程中若忽略寒潮大风的影响,则有效波高严重偏小达73.68%。如考虑海冰的影响,有效波高将比无冰情况偏小8.77%。

板状碎片对建筑屋面的冲击破坏概率模型

飞掷物对建筑的冲击破坏是围护结构在强风作用下受损的主要原因之一。为针对不同围护结构建立考虑多因素影响的冲击破坏概率模型,提出了一种基于马格努斯效应的板状碎片三维轨迹方程的板状碎片冲击破坏概率模型。与现有模型相比,额外考虑了在不同风速风向下板状碎片来源、起飞初始条件和建筑相对位置对屋面冲击破坏概率的影响。利用风速15 m·s^(-1)~45 m·s^(-1),风向0°~90°和上游建筑高度8.0 m~12.5 m作为模型的输入,实现了可考虑多因素影响的板状碎片对低矮建筑屋面冲击破坏的概率估计,验证了模型的实用性。该模型计算过程简单,可应用于建筑屋面易损性分析。

天津高铁沿线风致轻漂浮物入侵灾害气象风险分析及应用

为确定高铁沿线风灾隐患路段,减少大风引起的漂浮物入侵灾害发生,基于天津地区高铁沿线气象站观测资料、高分系列卫星遥感影像数据、高铁历史灾情、基础地理信息等,分析了大风对轻漂浮物入侵灾害的影响,给出天津不同区域路段灾害发生的风速阈值范围和主导风向,并基于自然灾害风险评估理论建立了高铁风致轻漂浮物入侵灾害气象风险分析模型,形成风险区划。研究结果表明:高铁沿线轻漂浮物入侵灾害主要出现在春季和冬季,占全年总量的73.75%,午后12—15时是发生的最集中时段,且在天津中部和东部区域发生最多,西北区域其次,西南区域最少。灾害主要发生在最大风风速为8~17 m·s^(-1)和极大风风速为13~21 m·s^(-1)的风速区间,当风向为偏西风到偏北风,风向与线路呈45°以上夹角时,更易引发灾害。运用卫星遥感技术手段,能够较好地识别高铁沿线隐患物分布情况,最高识别准确率可达72.7%。综合风速风向特征、隐患分布情况等,建立高铁风灾气象风险分析模型,区划结果显示,京沪高铁和京津城际风险较高,津秦高铁次之,津霸客专最低。高风险路段主要集中在京沪高铁武清区段北部、北辰区段、西青区段,京津城际的北辰区段、东丽区段东部和滨海新区段以及津秦高铁的东丽区段东部。