基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Modeling of multiphase flow in low permeability porous media:Effect of wettability and pore structure properties

Multiphase flow in low permeability porous media is involved in numerous energy and environmental applications.However,a complete description of this process is challenging due to the limited modeling scale and the effects of complex pore structures and wettability.To address this issue,based on the digital rock of low permeability sandstone,a direct numerical simulation is performed considering the interphase drag and boundary slip to clarify the microscopic water-oil displacement process.In addition,a dual-porosity pore network model(PNM)is constructed to obtain the water-oil relative permeability of the sample.The displacement efficiency as a recovery process is assessed under different wetting and pore structure properties.Results show that microscopic displacement mechanisms explain the corresponding macroscopic relative permeability.The injected water breaks through the outlet earlier with a large mass flow,while thick oil films exist in rough hydrophobic surfaces and poorly connected pores.The variation of water-oil relative permeability is significant,and residual oil saturation is high in the oil-wet system.The flooding is extensive,and the residual oil is trapped in complex pore networks for hydrophilic pore surfaces;thus,water relative permeability is lower in the water-wet system.While the displacement efficiency is the worst in mixed-wetting systems for poor water connectivity.Microporosity negatively correlates with invading oil volume fraction due to strong capillary resistance,and a large microporosity corresponds to low residual oil saturation.This work provides insights into the water-oil flow from different modeling perspectives and helps to optimize the development plan for enhanced recovery.

3D Road Network Modeling and Road Structure Recognition in Internet of Vehicles

Internet of Vehicles (IoV) is a new system that enables individual vehicles to connect with nearby vehicles,people, transportation infrastructure, and networks, thereby realizing amore intelligent and efficient transportationsystem. The movement of vehicles and the three-dimensional (3D) nature of the road network cause the topologicalstructure of IoV to have the high space and time complexity.Network modeling and structure recognition for 3Droads can benefit the description of topological changes for IoV. This paper proposes a 3Dgeneral roadmodel basedon discrete points of roads obtained from GIS. First, the constraints imposed by 3D roads on moving vehicles areanalyzed. Then the effects of road curvature radius (Ra), longitudinal slope (Slo), and length (Len) on speed andacceleration are studied. Finally, a general 3D road network model based on road section features is established.This paper also presents intersection and road section recognition methods based on the structural features ofthe 3D road network model and the road features. Real GIS data from a specific region of Beijing is adopted tocreate the simulation scenario, and the simulation results validate the general 3D road network model and therecognitionmethod. Therefore, thiswork makes contributions to the field of intelligent transportation by providinga comprehensive approach tomodeling the 3Droad network and its topological changes in achieving efficient trafficflowand improved road safety.

Unified deep learning model for predicting fundus fluorescein angiography image from fundus structure image

The prediction of fundus fluorescein angiography(FFA)images from fundus structural images is a cutting-edge research topic in ophthalmological image processing.Prediction comprises estimating FFA from fundus camera imaging,single-phase FFA from scanning laser ophthalmoscopy(SLO),and three-phase FFA also from SLO.Although many deep learning models are available,a single model can only perform one or two of these prediction tasks.To accomplish three prediction tasks using a unified method,we propose a unified deep learning model for predicting FFA images from fundus structure images using a supervised generative adversarial network.The three prediction tasks are processed as follows:data preparation,network training under FFA supervision,and FFA image prediction from fundus structure images on a test set.By comparing the FFA images predicted by our model,pix2pix,and CycleGAN,we demonstrate the remarkable progress achieved by our proposal.The high performance of our model is validated in terms of the peak signal-to-noise ratio,structural similarity index,and mean squared error.

RETRACTED: Nuclear Structure Study of Odd-Odd Yttrium Nuclei within Interacting-Boson Fermi-Fermion Model (IBFFM)

Short Retraction NoticeThe paper does not meet the standards of "Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics". This article has been retracted to straighten the academic record. In making this decision the Editorial Board follows COPE's Retraction Guidelines. The aim is to promote the circulation of scientific research by offering an ideal research publication platform with due consideration of internationally accepted standards on publication ethics. The Editorial Board would like to extend its sincere apologies for any inconvenience this retraction may have caused.Editor guiding this retraction: Prof. Wen-Xiu Ma (EiC of JAMP)The full retraction notice in PDF is preceding the original paper, which is marked "RETRACTED".

中国新能源汽车海外市场开拓的影响因素——基于ISM-AHP模型分析

把握新能源汽车在海外市场开拓过程中的影响因素,对于更好地实现我国新能源汽车的战略目标极为重要。影响新能源汽车海外市场的开拓因素归纳为新能源汽车产品生产、东道国市场条件、新能源汽车产品营销、新能源汽车技术支持、我国政策条件五个层面共22个子要素,并构建我国新能源汽车海外市场开拓影响因素的解释结构模型(ISM),运用层次分析法(AHP)确定各直接影响因素的相对重要性。基于此,提出要注重产品研发、优化出口策略、提升用户黏度、优化政策体系,以提升我国新能源汽车的发展动力,夯实发展基础,并更好地应对替代产品威胁。

基于ISM和AHP的城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知关键影响因素分析

深入研究城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知关键影响因素,对政府调节公众风险感知、提升应急管理能力具有重要意义。首先构建城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知影响因素指标体系,然后利用解释结构模型(ISM)方法对影响因素进行层次分析,并采用层次分析(AHP)法对各层次影响因素的影响力大小进行分析,确定城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知的关键影响因素。结果表明:城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知的影响因素分为直接因素、间接因素和根本因素三个层次;应急决策指挥和感染死亡情况是关键直接影响因素,医疗救援能力和应急物资保障是关键间接影响因素,文化水平、技能水平和公共设施完善度是关键根本影响因素。针对关键影响因素,提出建立和完善预警系统、普及宣传应急知识和加大对城乡结合部地区医疗机构的投入等措施,为政府应急管理提供决策支持。

基于ISM-AHP-Entropy航空公司风险因素研究

针对航空公司风险因素研究,引入ISM-AHP-Entropy综合评价方法对风险因素进行评价。构建了风险因素指标体系,利用解析结构模型(ISM)将因素指标分为表层和深层致因,构建结构模型;根据问卷结果,用AHP-Entropy求出综合权重,结果表明人因和管理因素对风险影响最为显著;进一步运用AHP-Entropy综合法分别计算表层和深层致因权重并分析,结果表明表层致因中机组资源管理水平、签派员应急处置能力影响最为显著,深层致因中安全规章方针的制定情况、应急管理培训与实施情况影响最为显著;从多个现实角度出发,结合CBTA理念,为航空公司降低风险、提高安全意识与水平提出多条建议,可供航空公司参考采纳。

基于DEMATEL-ISM模型的地铁火灾疏散影响因素研究

为减少地铁火灾事故对人员及财产安全的威胁,提升地铁火灾疏散安全性,对地铁火灾疏散影响因素进行系统性研究。在构建地铁火灾疏散影响因素指标体系的基础上,将决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)与解释结构模型(ISM)联合,用于研究各因素对地铁火灾疏散系统的重要程度,并对各因素间的逻辑结构进行梳理分析。结果表明,恐慌心理和火灾产物分别为影响地铁火灾疏散系统安全性的关键性直接因素和根本因素,24个地铁火灾疏散影响因素可划分为3层5阶的递阶结构。此研究有助于科学认识地铁火灾疏散系统,对提高实际疏散安全性具有参考价值。

基于GRA-ISM-HMM的广州市肉及肉制品安全风险评估

该研究旨在利用广州食品安全风险监测2015年至2020年针对肉及肉制品样本的检测数据,构建肉及肉制品的安全风险评估模型,从而了解广州市该段时间内肉及肉制品的食品安全风险及其时变特点。该研究采取灰色关联分析方法和解释结构模型建立风险指数,并基于该指标值作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测值探讨观测背后的隐含风险状态。分析结果显示,2015~2020年所有样本综合风险指数结果都在[0,0.45]之间,总体风险都较小,其中2019年风险最高;将风险指数进行等级划分,显示2015~2020年风险等级为[1,2,2,2,3,1];通过HMM分析得到这六年的隐藏风险等级为[0,1,1,1,2,0],与观测风险结果一致,且HMM预测2021年风险等级为1,即表明广州肉及肉制品风险往良好态势发展。最后,进行风险差异原因分析,发现各肉制品分类之间有差异,其中腊肠、鸡肉和腊肉的风险指数较高于其他种类,而2019年增加腊肠和腊肉的检测是风险增加的一个原因。总体来说,广州肉及肉制品风险较小,但依旧需要监督改善。

基于ISM模型的邮轮航线要素分析及优化研究

在全球经济增长乏力的情况下,我国邮轮产业方兴未艾,围绕着南海开发,中国—东盟合作前景一片广阔。本文以粤港澳大湾区为邮轮母港出发地,以邮轮航线优化要素为影响因子,建立要素解释结构模型,分析邮轮航线要素对优化方案的重要性程度,以及各个要素之间的影响关系。

The China Seismological Reference Model project

The importance of developing high-resolution seismic models to improve understanding of tectonic processes and enhance seismic hazard mitigation programs,along with the rapid expansion of seismic coverage in China,called for a seismological reference model to be established in China.The China Seismological Reference Model(CSRM)project was initiated by the National Natural Science Foundation of China with two primary goals:(1)the CSRM would serve as a primary source for the current state of seismological research in China,and(2)the seismic data and constraints used to construct the CSRM would be used as a backbone open-access cyberinfrastructure for future research in seismology.The CSRM project was also intended to promote data exchange and scientific collaboration in seismology in China.Accordingly,two parallel efforts of the project are being pursued:(1)construction of the CSRM,and(2)development of a CSRM product center.The CSRM is jointly constrained by various types of seismic constraints extracted from the seismic data recorded at 4511 seismic stations in continental China following a top-down approach,with the seismic structures in the shallower part of the Earth constrained first.Construction of the CSRM involves three preparation steps:(1)building datasets of various seismic constraints from the seismic data,(2)developing a method to incorporate the constraints of surface wave observations from regional earthquakes into the inversion of the seismic structure,and(3)constructing high-resolution pre-CSRM seismic models of the velocity structure in the shallow crust and the Pn-velocity structure in the uppermost mantle.In the final process,the CSRM will be constructed by jointly inverting all the seismic constraints using the pre-CSRM models as starting models or a priori structures.The CSRM product center(http://chinageorefmodel.org)archives and distributes three types of products:CSRM models,the Level 1 original seismic data used to extract seismic constraints in the construction of the CSRM,and Level 2 data on the seismic constraints derived from the Level 1 data and the inferred earthquake parameters in the construction of the CSRM.The CSRM product center has archived 141 TB of Level 1 data from 1120 permanent broadband stations in the China Seismic Network Center and 3391 temporary stations from various institutions and data centers around the world,as well as 140 GB of Level 2 data on various seismic constraints and inferred event parameters from the construction of the CSRM.The CSRM is expected to provide significant insights into the composition and tectonic dynamics in continental China and to enhance the capability of various seismic hazard mitigation programs in China from near real-time rapid determination of earthquake parameters to an earthquake early warning system.The CSRM could also provide guidance for focuses in future seismological research and the design of future active and passive seismic experiments in China.Several focuses are suggested for future seismological research in China,along with the building of a national cyberinfrastructure to sustain and expand the operations of the CSRM project.

基于改进DEMATEL-ISM的钢桁梁桥施工风险影响因素研究

为提高钢桁梁桥施工过程中的安全管理,对钢桁梁桥施工中的风险因素进行分析,提出了一种基于改进DEMATEL-ISM的评价方法,首先引入三角模糊数对DEMATEL法中的直接影响矩阵进行改进,从而去模糊化以减少专家评价的主观性,再通过DEMATEL法分析各影响因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度与原因度并加以排序,对得到的主要影响因素进行初步分析,利用ISM法对筛选出的影响因素进行层次划分,得到直接层影响因素、过渡层影响因素与本质影响因素,并针对分析得到的5个本质影响因素提出深入的预防预警措施,可为钢桁梁桥施工方向的安全管理提供针对性措施,为事故预防提供一定的参考依据。

基于改进ISM的农村自建房防灾韧性影响因素研究

为提升我国农村自建房自然灾害防范能力,从韧性角度研究影响自建房防灾减灾的差异化因素。分析农村自建房灾害事故,结合自建房使用现状及自然灾害特点,分别从自建房可靠性和恢复力2个韧性维度提取了23个相关因素,应用改进的解释结构模型法(ISM)形成多因素多级递阶结构的自建房防灾韧性系统,确定因素间的内在耦合及层次关系。结果表明:自建房选址、建造年代为农村自建房防灾可靠性关键因素,而家庭收入、常住人口中成年人占比和户主受教育水平则是农村自建房灾后恢复力关键因素。

基于DEMATEL-AISM的铁路工程建设风险识别影响因素与优化策略研究

铁路工程建设大型化、复杂化和系统化的发展趋势下,潜在的风险因素日益繁多,铁路工程建设高质量和可持续发展之路充满挑战。风险识别作为风险管理的首要环节,是应对和控制铁路工程建设风险的关键,受到项目内外部多方面因素的影响,且现有实践中没有系统的指导,导致风险识别工作易存在疏漏。基于此,通过文献研究和因子分析,提取铁路工程建设风险识别的核心影响因素,运用决策与试验评价实验室和解释结构模型的方法,构建对抗多级递阶结构模型(DEMATEL-AISM),计算铁路工程建设风险识别各影响因素的重要程度及其耦合关系。研究结果表明:铁路工程建设风险识别的效果受到直接层、间接层和根源层3层因素共同作用,其中,危险源监测分析、人员风险意识、风险调查措施、风险应对能力、铁路建设目标、预期风险后果和风险识别技术是影响风险识别结果的关键因素,在铁路工程建设风险管理工作的开展中应重点关注和控制。基于模型结果,分析风险识别影响因素的层级结构及因果关系,并从风险内部控制、项目一体化风险管理体系构建和动态风险预警机制设立3个方面,提出了铁路工程建设风险识别的建议和策略。研究结果有助于提高大型铁路工程建设风险辨识结果的全面性和科学性,对构建铁路工程建设风险识别体系具有一定参考价值和借鉴意义。

Structure and kinematic analysis of the deepwater area of the Qiongdongnan Basin through a seismic interpretation and analogue modeling experiments

Located at the northwest continental slope of the South China Sea, the Qiongdongnan Basin bears valley-shaped bathymetry deepening toward east. It is separated from the Yinggehai Basin through NW-trending Indo-China-Red River shear zone, and connected with NW subsea basin through the Xisha Trough. Along with the rapid progress of the deepwater exploration, large amounts of high resolution geophysical and geological data were accumulated. Scientific researches about deepwater basins kept revealing brand new tectonic and sedimentary discoveries. In order to summarize the structural features and main controlling factors of the deepwater Qiongdongnan Basin, a series of researches on basin architecture, fault activities, tectonic deformation and evolution were carried out. In reference to analogue modeling experiments, a tectonic situation and a basin formation mechanism were discussed. The researches indicate that：the northern boundary of the Qiongdongnan Basin is strongly controlled by No. 2 fault. The overlapping control of two stress fields from the east and the west made the central depression zone extremely thinned. Combined with the changed stress field, the segmentation of a preexisting weakness zone made the sags in the east experiencing different rifting histories from the west ones. The NE-trending west segment of the Qiongdongnan Basin experienced strong rifting during Eocene, while the roughly EW-trending sags in the east segment show strong rifting during late Eocene and early Oligocene. Local structures such as NW-trending basal fault and inherited uplifts controlled the lateral segmentation. So first order factors such as regional stress field and preexisting weakness zone controlled the basin zonation, while the second order factors determined the segmentation from east to west.

Uplift mechanism for a shallow-buried structure in liquefi able sand subjected to seismic load: centrifuge model test and DEM modeling

Based on a centrifuge model test and distinct element method(DEM), this study provides new insights into the uplift response of a shallow-buried structure and the liquefaction mechanism for saturated sand around the structure under seismic action. In the centrifuge test, a high-speed microscopic camera was installed in the structure model, by which the movements of particles around the structure were monitored. Then, a two-dimensional digital image processing technology was used to analyze the microstructure of saturated sand during the shaking event. Herein, a numerical simulation of the centrifuge experiment was conducted using a two-phase(solid and fl uid) fully coupled distinct element code. This code incorporates a particle-fl uid coupling model by means of a "fi xed coarse-grid" fl uid scheme in PFC3D(Particle Flow Code in Three Dimensions), with the modeling parameters partially calibrated based on earlier studies. The physical and numerical models both indicate the uplifts of the shallow-buried structure and the sharp rise in excess pore pressure. The corresponding micro-scale responses and explanations are provided. Overall, the uplift response of an underground structure and the occurrence of liquefaction in saturated sand are predicted successfully by DEM modeling. However, the dynamic responses during the shaking cannot be modeled accurately due to the restricted computer power.

Identifi cation of model structure parameters via combination of AFMM and ARX from seismic response data

To identify the model structure parameters in shaking table tests from seismic response, especially from time- varying response records, this paper presents a new methodology by combining the online recursive Adaptive Forgetting through Multiple Models （AFMM） and offtine Auto-Regression with eXogenous variables （ARX） model. First, the AFMM is employed to detect whether the response of model structure is time-invariant or time-varying when subjected to strong motions. Second, if the response is time-invariant, the modal parameters are identified from the entire response record, such as the acceleration time-history using the ARX model. If the response is time-varying, the acceleration record is divided into three segments according to the accurate time-varying points detected by AFMM, and parameters are identified by only using the tail segment data, which is time-invariant and suited for analysis by the ARX model. Finally, the changes in dynamic properties due to various strong motions are obtained using the presented methodology. The feasibility and advantages of the method are demonstrated by identifying the modal parameters of a 12-story reinforced concrete （RC） frame structure in a shaking table test.

Fully fluid-solid coupling dynamic model for seismic response of underground structures in saturated soils

The seismic response characteristics of underground structures in saturated soils are investigated.A fully fluid-solid coupling dynamic model is developed and implemented into ABAQUS with a user-defined element to simulate the dynamic behavior of saturated soils.The accuracy of the model is validated using a classic example in literature.The performance of the model is verified by its application on simulating the seismic response characteristics of a subway station built in saturated soils.The merits of the model are demonstrated by comparing the difference of the seismic response of an underground structure in saturated soils between using the fully coupling model and a single-phase medium model.The study finds that the fully coupling model developed herein can simulate the dynamic response characteristics of the underground structures in saturated soils with high accuracy.The seismic response of the underground structure tends to be underestimated by using the single-phase medium model compared with using the fully coupling model,which provides a weaker confining action to the underground structure.