Structure reliability analysis based on supercavity vehicle steady motion

Taking the steady motion status as a starting point,according to the modeling of actual state of theoretical analysis,a predigested model of supercavity vehicle was established,and relationship expressions of these angles were obtained when the movement of supercavity vehicle was stable.A theoretical analysis on the stability of underwater high-speed movement in the movement simulation program was conducted and the simulation results were given.Then the force status of the supercavity vehicle was elicited from the results.The finite element analysis was carried out based on the stability at all angles obtained from simulation results.Taking a pilot model as example,the Monte Carlo method was adopting to analyze the reliability with the given state of force and displacement.The result indicates that this method is feasible.

System Reliability Analysis for Truss Structures Based on Automatic Updated Model

Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein we intend to update the finite element model automatically in the identification process of failure modes and further perform the system reliability analysis efficiently.This study presents a framework that is implemented through the joint simulation of MATLAB and APDL and consists of three parts:reliability index of a single member,identification of dominant failure modes,and system-level reliability analysis for system reliability analysis of truss structures.Firstly,RSM(response surface method)combines with a constrained optimization model to calculate the reliability indices ofmembers.Then theβ-unzipping method is adopted to identify the dominant failuremodes,and the system function in MATLAB,as well as the EKILL command in APDL,is used to facilitate the automatic update of the finite element model and realize load-redistribution.Besides,the differential equivalence recursion algorithmis performed to approximate the reliability indices of failuremodes efficiently and accurately.Eventually,the PNET(probabilistic network evaluation technique)is used to calculate the joint failure probability as well as the system reliability index.Two illustrative examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed system reliability analysis framework through comparison with corresponding references.

THE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT STRUCTURES

This paper presents a set of fundamental equations for reliability analysis of single-critical-point aircraft structures.The mathematical model is formulated by considering the following factors:the static strength of structure,initial crack,the initiation and propagation and unstability of fatigue crack,the residual strength of structure,the statistical distribution of load,the periods of overhaul,accident damage,the communication of damage among fleets etc.Based on this mathematical model,the influence of these factors on the reliability can be quantitatively analyzed,and various criteria for fatigue design of aircraft structures can be evaluated from the aspect of reliability.

Fatigue reliability analysis of fixed offshore structures:A first passage problem approach

This paper describes a methodology for computation of reliability of members of fixed offshore platform structures, with respect to fatigue. Failure criteria were formulated using fracture mechanics principle. The problem is coined as a “first passage problem”. The method was illustrated through application to a typical plane frame structure. The fatigue reliability degradation curve established can be used for planning in-service inspection of offshore platforms. A very limited parametric study was carried out to obtain insight into the effect of important variables on the fatigue reliability.

Aseismic Reliability Analysis Approach for Offshore Jacket Platform Structures

By means of nonlinear pushover collapse analysis approach, the aseismic reliability analyses of two offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Gulf in China are studied according to their ocean location and environmental loadings there. On the basis of those analyses, an aseismic reliability analysis approach is presented. The results show that the aseismic reliability of those platforms is high. Also it is proved that this aseismic reliability analysis approach is simple, practical and reliable.

Reliability analysis on bolt support structure of coal roadway under the influence of mining

Based on the features of the serious deformation of coal roadway,many random variables of the mechanics of the surrounding rocks and the influence of mining, the reliability analysis model of the support structure of coal roadway under the influence of mining is established,and the calculating formulas of reliability of the support structure is obtained with the engineering structure reliability theory. And the reliability is calculated based on the method of Monte Carlo to the coal roadway which is exampled on the influence of mining or not. The relationship between support parameters and reliability, the mining influence coefficients and reliability is established, which provides theory foundations for the design of the coal roadway bolt support.

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures

During the life of an offshore structure, its structural strength declines due to various kinds of damages related to the time factor. In this paper, four major kinds of damages, including damages caused by fatigue, dent, corrosion and marine life, are discussed. Based on these analyses, formulas for the evaluation of the damaged structure reliability are derived. Furthermore the computer program ISM for the analysis of structural reliability is developed by the use of Advanced First Order Second Moment method and Monte-Carlo Importance Sampling method. The reliability of a turbular joint and a beam are studied as numerical examples. The results show that the theory and the analysis method given in this paper are reasonable and effective.

FUZZY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE

Prediction of structural performance is complicated by many uncertainties of random or fuzzy character. This paper presented an initial investigation on reliability theory of structure involved with fuzziness. The membership function of structural safety was established. The calculation methods of fuzzy reliability of structure were also presented, and as an example, the fuzzy reliability of simply supported beam was calculated.

The reliability analysis of welded structure with embedded cracks by using three dimensional stochastic FEM

In this paper, the reliability of welded structure with an embedded elliptical crack was calculated by using three dimensional stochastic finite element method. This method has overcome the shortcomings of conservative results in safety assessment with deterministic fracture mechanics method. The calculation of reliability was based on three dimensional perturbation stochastic finite element program which was developed by ourselves. The effects of variables (such as fracture toughness K IC , load P, the ratio of minor axis to major axis a/c) on the structure reliability were also discussed. The calculation results indicate that among the three variables (K IC ,P, a/c) , the fracture toughness K IC has the greatest effect on the structure reliability. The next is external load P. The ratio of the a/c has lower effect on structure reliability than both K IC and P . The method has put forward a new way for safety assessment of welded structure with embedded elliptical cracks.

STOCHASTIC BOUNDARY ELEMENT METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PLATE AND BEAMS COMPOSITE STRUCTURES

In this paper, the reliability of orthotropic plate and beams composite structures, which is under the actions of the stochastic loading and stochastic boundary conditions, have been analyzed by stochastic boundary element method. First, the boundary integral equation of orthotropic plate and beams composite structures is given in this paper, and then based on the stochastic boundary element method, the method for reliability analysis of stochastic structures is establishes and formulas for computation of reliability index of orthotropic plate and beams composite structures are obtained. The computed examples show the efficient of the method used in this paper.

Assembly-oriented reliability analysis method for the top-connection structure of a nuclear fuel assembly

The nuclear fuel assembly is the core component of a nuclear reactor.In a pressurized water reactor fuel assembly,the top-connection structure connects the top nozzle to the guide thimble.Its performance reliability is essential for the stability of the nuclear fuel assembly.In this study,an assembly-oriented reliability analysis method for top-connection structures is presented by establishing an assembly-oriented top-connection structure parameter modeling method and a nonlinear contact gap and penetration correction method.A reliability model of the top-connection assembly structure,including multiple stochastic design variables,was constructed,and the overall reliability of the top-connection assembly structure was obtained via a Kriging model and Monte Carlo simulation.The acquired experimental data were consistent with real-world failure conditions,which verified the practicability and feasibility of the reliability analysis method proposed in this study.

A practical framework for performance-based reliability analysis of subway stations based on a faultestructure combined system

It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.

A Reliability and Validity Analysis on Vocabulary and Structure of NEPCMSS Test in 2010

Reliability and validity are two criteria to evaluate whether a test paper is successful. This paper analyzes the vocabulary and structure MCQ (Multiple Choice Question) of National English Proficiency Competition for Middle School Students (NEPCMSS) test in 2010, evaluating the reliability and content validity by using SPSS software. It is concluded that the 20 multiple choice questions are not difficult in terms of difficulty;the reliability is good but the content validity is not so satisfied.

Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Braced Frame Structures Considering Inter Story Correlation

Adding buckling restrained braces(BRB)of reinforced concrete frame structure can effectively improve the safety performance of the structure.The dynamic reliability analysis based on Poisson continuous process assumption and the first exceeding failure probability can be used to obtain the failure probability of the buckling restrained brace frame system under earthquake load,and the relationship between the failure probabilities of each floor of the structure is analyzed to obtain the frame system reliability interval of frame structure.The results show that the reliability of BRB frame structure is higher than that of pure frame structure,and the discrete failure probability is lower.

Saddlepoint Approximation Method in Reliability Analysis:A Review

The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.

Reliability analysis of carbon fiber rod-reinforced umbilical cable under tension using an improved sampling method

The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Efficient slope reliability analysis under soil spatial variability using maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments

Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty are synthesized in the so-called probability of failure.This probability quantifies the reliability of a slope and its numerical calculation is usually quite involved from a numerical viewpoint.In view of this issue,this paper proposes an approach for failure probability assessment based on Latinized partially stratified sampling and maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The spatial variability of geotechnical properties is represented by means of random fields and the Karhunen-Loève expansion.Then,failure probabilities are estimated employing maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The application of the proposed approach is examined with two examples:a case study of an undrained slope and a case study of a slope with cross-correlated random fields of strength parameters under a drained slope.The results show that the proposed approach has excellent accuracy and high efficiency,and it can be applied straightforwardly to similar geotechnical engineering problems.

Inverse reliability analysis and design for tunnel face stability considering soil spatial variability

The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.

Three-dimensional pseudo-dynamic reliability analysis of seismic shield tunnel faces combined with sparse polynomial chaos expansion

To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis,an improved three-dimensional discrete deterministic mechanism,accounting for the heterogeneous nature of soil media,is formulated to evaluate seismic face stability.The metamodel of failure probabilistic assessments for seismic tunnel faces is constructed by integrating the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method(SPCE)with the modified pseudo-dynamic approach(MPD).The improved deterministic model is validated by comparing with published literature and numerical simulations results,and the SPCE-MPD metamodel is examined with the traditional MCS method.Based on the SPCE-MPD metamodels,the seismic effects on face failure probability and reliability index are presented and the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)is involved to reflect the influence order of seismic action parameters.Finally,the proposed approach is tested to be effective by a engineering case of the Chengdu outer ring tunnel.The results show that higher uncertainty of seismic response on face stability should be noticed in areas with intense earthquakes and variation of seismic wave velocity has the most profound influence on tunnel face stability.