基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Fixed-Bed Column Adsorption Modeling of MnO4- Ions from Acidic Aqueous Solutions on Activated Carbons Prepared with the Biomass

Activated carbons calcined at 400˚C and 600˚C (AC-400 and AC-600), prepared using palm nuts, collected in the town of Franceville in Gabon, were used to study the dynamic adsorption of MnO4- ions in acidic media on fixed bed column and on the kinetic modeling of experimental data of breakthrough curves of MnO4- ions obtained. Results on the adsorption of MnO4- ions in fixed-bed dynamics obtained on AC-400 and AC-600 adsorbents beds indicated that the AC-400 bed appears to be the most efficient in removing MnO4- ions in acidic media. Indeed, the adsorbed amounts, the adsorbed capacities at saturation and the elimination percentage of MnO4- ions obtained with AC-400 (31.24 mg;52.06 mg·g-1 and 41.65% respectively) were higher compared to those obtained with AC-600 (9.87 mg;16.45 mg·g-1 and 17.79% respectively). The breakthrough curves kinetic modeling revealed that the Thomas model and the pseudo-first-order kinetic model were the most suitable models to describe the adsorption of MnO4- ions on adsorbents studied in our experimental conditions. The results of the intraparticle diffusion model showed that intraparticle diffusion was involved in the adsorption mechanism of MnO4- ions on investigated adsorbents and was not the limiting step and the only process controlling MnO4- ions adsorption. In contrast to AC-400, the intraparticle diffusion on AC-600 bed plays an important role in the adsorption mechanism of MnO4- ions.

Application of the Sub-Model Method in the Engine Strength Analysis

On the basis of introducing the fundamental theory and the basic analysis steps of the sub model method, the strength of the new engine complex assembly structure was analyzed according to the properties of the engine structures, some of the key parts of the engine were analyzed with refined mesh by sub model method and the error of the FEM solution was estimated by the extrapolation method. The example showed that the sub model can not only analyze the comlex structures without the restriction of the software and hardware of the computers, but get the more precise analysis result also. This method is more suitable for the strength analysis of the complex assembly structure.

基于轻量级SE-PPM的自然状态烟叶正副组分类算法

【目的】针对自然状态烟叶传统正副组分类速度慢、正副组易错分、特征提取困难的问题,提出了一种基于轻量级SE-PPM的自然状态烟叶正副组分类算法(SAPMDSNet)。【方法】基于轻量级ShuffleNetV2网络,先通过降低网络卷积深度和进化激活函数,加快网络模型的训练速度;再引入通道注意力机制SE模块,增强通道间的特征差异,提高网络模型的表征能力,避免正副组烟叶叶部区域化导致的组别错分;最后通过嵌入金字塔池化模块PPM充分融合烟叶显露特征与全局信息,增强对正副组烟叶上下文信息的聚合,并采用自行构建的烟叶数据集进行对比试验。【结果】SAPMDSNet网络模型的分类准确率为91.09%,计算量(FLOPs)为151.70 M,取得了相对较高的分类效果。与原网络ShuffleNetV2模型和轻量级GhostNet模型相比,SAPMDSNet网络模型的FLOPs分别升高2.65%和2.84%,而识别准确率则分别提高2.72和21.13个百分点;MobileNetV2、DenseNet和SqueezeNet模型的识别准确率分别为87.02%,89.53%和87.60%,虽均与SAPMDSNet模型的识别准确率接近,但其FLOPs明显较SAPMDSNet模型大。【结论】构建的SAPMDSNet模型能提高烟叶正副组分类精度且具有较好的整体性能,为烤烟烟叶品质初筛提供了新的思路和方法。

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Calculation of Activity Coefficient from Immiscible Binary Alloy Phase Diagram by Means of Modified Sub-regular Solution Model

The modified sub regular solution model was used for a calculation of the activity coefficient of immiscible binary alloy systems. The parameters needed for the calculation are the interaction parameters, λ 1 and λ 2, which are represented as a linear function of temperature, T . The molar excess Gibbs free energy, G m E, can be written in the form G m E= x A x B[( λ 11 + λ 12 T )+( λ 21 + λ 22 T ) x B ] The calculation is carried out numerically for three immiscible binary alloy systems, Al Pb, Cu Tl and In V. The agreement between the calculated and experimentally determined values of activity coefficient is excellent.

Seismic damage analysis of the outlet piers of arch dams using the finite element sub-model method

This study aims to analyze seismic damage of reinforced outlet piers of arch dams by the nonlinear finite element （FE） sub-model method. First, the dam-foundation system is modeled and analyzed, in which the effects of infinite foundation, contraction joints, and nonlinear concrete are taken into account. The detailed structures of the outlet pier are then simulated with a refined FE model in the sub-model analysis. In this way the damage mechanism of the plain （unreinforced） outlet pier is analyzed, and the effects of two reinforcement measures （i.e., post-tensioned anchor cables and reinforcing bar） on the dynamic damage to the outlet pier are investigated comprehensively. Results show that the plain pier is damaged severely by strong earthquakes while implementation of post-tensioned anchor cables strengthens the pier effectively. In addition, radiation damping strongly alleviates seismic damage to the piers.

Cenozoic tectono-sedimentary characteristics and extension model of the Northwest Sub-basin,South China Sea

Based on the interpretations of three seismic profiles and one wide-angle seismic profile across the Northwest Sub-basin,South China Sea.stratigraphic sequences,deformation characteristics and an extension model for this sub-basin have been worked out.Three tectonic-stratigraphic units are determined.Detailed analyses of extension show that the event occurred mainly during the Paleogene and resulted in the formation of half-grabens or grabens distributed symmetrically around the spreading center.Sediments are characterized by chaotic and discontinuous reflectors,indicating clastic sediments. Farther to the southwest,the sub-basin features mainly continental rifting instead of sea-floor spreading. The rifting would have been controlled by the shape of the massif and developed just along the northern edge of the Zhongsha-Xisha Block,rather than joined the Xisha Trough.After 25 Ma.a southward ridge jump triggered the opening of the Southwest Sub-basin.The NW-directed stress caused by the sea-floor spreading of the Northwest Sub-basin may have prevented the continuous opening of the sub-basin.After that the Northwest Sub-basin experienced thermal cooling and exhibited broad subsidence.The deep crustal structure shown by the velocity model from a wide-angle seismic profile is also symmetrical around the spreading center,which indicates that the Northwest Sub-basin might have opened in a pure shear model.

基于MPC-MRAC的用于子母式AUV投放的子AUV控制算法

针对水下搜救、水下集群作业等场合对负载能力、响应速度和多体协同的特殊要求,提出一种子母式自主水下航行器(AUV)概念。针对子母式AUV中的子AUV平台进行投放过程设计与分析,并对不同运动模式下的子AUV进行受力分析和建模。根据子AUV运动特性设计一套基于模型预测控制-模型参考自适应控制算法(MPC-MRAC)的子AUV控制算法,并进行仿真。结果显示:该算法具有较快的响应速度和控制稳定性,适用于子AUV投放后的自主运动控制;其响应速度比反演滑模控制算法快42.48%,比比例积分微分(PID)控制算法快87.05%;控制精度比反演滑模控制算法高77.54%,比PID控制算法高76.19%。针对该系统设计制作样机并开展湖上试验,结果表明,子AUV控制算法具有良好的可行性和可靠性,可顺利实现子AUV投放后运行的安全可靠。子AUV在出舱后经过短时间姿态变化,成功与母AUV分离并顺利进行定深任务,最终达到近似等距分布的效果。研究成果可为用于子母式AUV投放的子AUV提供控制算法基础。

IMPROVED SUBGRID SCALE MODEL FOR DENSE TURBULENT SOLID-LIQUID TWO-PHASE FLOWS

The dense solid-phase governing equations for two-phase flows are obtained by using the kinetic theory of gas molecules.Assuming that the solid-phase velocity distributions obey the Maxwell equations,the collision term for particles under dense two-phase flow conditions is also derived. In comparison with the governing equations of a dilute two-phase flow,the solid-particle's governing equations are developed for a dense turbulent solid-liquid flow by adopting some relevant terms from the dilute two-phase governing equations.Based on Cauchy-Helmholtz theorem and Smagorinsky model, a second-order dynamic sub-grid-scale(SGS)model,in which the sub-grid-scale stress is a function of both the strain-rate tensor and the rotation-rate tensor,is proposed to model the two-phase governing equations by applying dimension analyses.Applying the SIMPLEC algorithm and staggering grid system to the two-phase discretized governing equations and employing the slip boundary conditions on the walls,the velocity and pressure fields,and the volumetric concentration are calculated.The simulation results are in a fairly good agreement with experimental data in two operating cases in a conduit with a rectangular cross-section and these comparisons imply that these models are practical.

Prediction of Vibration Characteristics in Beam Structure Using Sub-Scale Modeling with Experimental Validation

Geometric or sub-scale modeling techniques are used for the evaluation of large and complex dynamic structures to ensure accurate reproduction of load path and thus leading to true dynamic characteristics of such structures. The sub-scale modeling technique is very effective in the prediction of vibration characteristics of original large structure when the experimental testing is not feasible due to the absence of a large testing facility. Previous researches were more focused on free and harmonic vibration case with little or no consideration for readily encountered random vibration. A sub-scale modeling technique is proposed for estimating the vibration characteristics of any large scale structure such as Launch vehicles, Mega structures, etc., under various vibration load cases by utilizing precise scaled-down model of that dynamic structure. In order to establish an analytical correlation between the original structure and its scaled models, different scale models of isotropic cantilever beam are selected and analyzed under various vibration conditions（ i.e. free, harmonic and random） using finite element package ANSYS. The developed correlations are also validated through experimental testing The prediction made from the vibratory response of the scaled-down beam through the established sets of correlation are found similar to the response measured from the testing of original beam structure. The established correlations are equally applicable in the prediction of dynamic characteristics of any complex structure through its scaled-down models. This paper presents modified sub-scale modeling technique that enables accurate prediction of vibration characteristics of large and complex structure under not only sinusoidal but also for random vibrations.

3D Modelling from New and Existing Gravity Data of an Intrusive Body in the Northern Part of Kribi-Campo Sub-Basin in Cameroon

A new gravity survey was carried out in the northern part of the onshore Kribi- Campo sub-basin in Cameroon. The data were incorporated to the existing ones and then analyzed and modeled in order to elucidate the subsurface structure of the area. The area is characterized in its north-western part by considerably high positive anomalies indicative of the presence of a dense intrusive body. We find, 1) from the analysis of the gravity residual anomaly map, the high positive anomalies observed are the signature of a shallow dense structure;2) from the multi-scale analysis of the maxima of the horizontal gradient, the structure is confined between depths of 0.5 km and 5 km;3) from the quantitative interpretation of residual anomalies by spectral analysis, the depth to the upper surface of the intrusive body is not uniform, the average depth of the bottom is h1 = 3.6 km and the depths to particular sections of the roof of the intrusion are h2 = 1.6 km and h3 = 0.5 km;4) and the 3D modeling gives results that are suggestive of the presence of contacts between rocks of different densities at different depths and a dense intrusive igneous body in the upper crust of the Kribi zone. From the 3D model the dense intrusive igneous block is surrounded by sedimentary formations to the south-west and metamorphic formations to the north-east. Both formations have a density of about 2.74 g/cm3. The near surface portions of this igneous block lie at a depth range of 0.5 km to 1.5 km while its lower surface has a depth range of 3.6 km to 5.2 km. The shape of the edges and the bottom of the intrusive body are suggestive of the fact that it forms part of a broader structure underlying the Kribi-Campo sub-basin with a great influence on the sedimentary cover.

Assessment of Climate Change’s Impacts on River Flows in the Songwe Sub-Basin

River flow in the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to alter due to climate change, which would have an impact on aquatic habitats, infrastructure, and people’s way of life. Therefore, the influence of climate change should be taken into account when making decisions about the sustainable management of water resources in the sub-basin. This study looked into how river discharge would react to climate change in the future. By contrasting hydrological characteristics simulated under historical climate (1981-2010) with projected climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) under two emission scenarios, the effects of climate change on river flow were evaluated (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The ensemble average of four CORDEX regional climate models was built to address the issue of uncertainty introduced by the climate models. The SWAT model was force-calibrated using the results from the generated ensemble average for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios in order to mimic the river flow during past (1981-2010) and future (2011-2100) events. The increase in river flows for the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to be largest during the rainy season by both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the abrupt decrease in river flow is anticipated to reach its maximum in March 2037, when the discharge will be 44.84 m3/sec, and in March 2027, when the discharge will be 48 m3/sec. The extreme surge in river flow will peak, according to the RCA4, in February 2023, in April 2083 under RCP 4.5, and, according to the CCLM4 and RCA4, in November 2027 and November 2046, respectively. The expected decrease and increase in river flow throughout both the dry and wet seasons may have an impact on the management of the sub-water basin’s resources, biodiversity, and hydraulic structures. The right adaptations and mitigation strategies should be adopted in order to lessen the negative consequences of climate change on precipitation, temperature, and river flow in the sub-basin.

渤海湾盆地临南洼陷古近系沙河街组源-储组合类型与致密(低渗)砂岩油差异富集模式

为了揭示渤海湾盆地临南洼陷古近系沙河街组致密(低渗)砂岩油的差异富集机理,在依据空间配置和岩性组合划分源-储组合类型的基础上,综合利用测井、录井、试油和岩心分析测试资料,对不同源-储组合类型含油性及其供烃条件、储集条件、输导条件和运聚动力进行了分析,建立了致密(低渗)砂岩油差异富集模式。结果显示:①研究区存在源-储共生型(夹层型、互层型)、源-储紧邻型(源上型、源间型和源下型)、源-储间隔型(源下型)3大类6亚类源-储组合,对应3种致密(低渗)砂岩油富集模式。②源-储共生型具有“强供烃-强动力-高效充注-储集控富”模式,供烃条件和运聚动力最优,油气通过孔缝高效充注,储层含油性最好;相较于互层型,砂体厚度制约了夹层型油气富集规模。③源-储紧邻型具有“较强供烃-差异动力-联合输导-多元控富”模式,供烃条件较好,运聚动力变化大,油气通过孔缝-断裂-砂体联合输导,优先充注物性和孔隙结构好的储层,储层含油性较好;亚类中,源间型供烃条件和运聚动力优于源上型和源下型,含油性最好。④源-储间隔型具有“弱供烃-弱动力-断砂输导-输储控富”模式,供烃和运聚动力较弱,断裂、砂体组成的有效输导通道和优质储层发育对于油气富集至关重要,含油性整体较差。

Thermodynamic modeling and phase diagram prediction of salt lake brine systemsⅡ.Aqueous Li^(+)-Na^(+)-K^(+)-SO_(4)^(2-) and its subsystems

It is still a challenging task to accurately and temperature-continuously express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium behaviors of the salt-lake brine with multi-component,multitemperature and high concentration.The essential subsystem of sulfate type brine,aqueous Li^(+)-Na^(+)-K^(+)-SO_(4)^(2-) and its subsystems across a temperature range from 250 K to 643 K are investigated with the improved comprehensive thermodynamic model.Liquid parameters(Δg_(IJ),Δh_(IJ),and ΔC_(p,IJ))associated with the contributions of Gibbs energy,enthalpy,and heat capacity to the binary interaction parameters,i.e.the temperature coefficients of eNRTL parameters formulated with a Gibbs Helmholtz expression,are determined via multi-objective optimization method.The solid constantsΔ_(f)G_(k)°^((298.15))andΔ_(f)H_(k)°^((298.15))of11 solid species occurred in the quaternary system are rebuilt from multi-temperature solubilities.The modeling results show the accurate representation of(1)solution properties and binary phase diagram at temperature ranges from eutectic points to 643 K;(2)isothermal phase diagrams for Li_(2)SO_(4)-Na_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O,Li_(2)SO_(4)-K_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O and Na_(2)SO_(4)-K_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O ternary systems.The predicted results of complete structure and polythermal phase diagram of ternary systems and the isothermal phase diagrams of quaternary system excellently match with the experimental data.

Analysis of Observed and Modelled Near-Surface Wind Extremes over the Sub-Arctic Northeast Pacific

Wind speed extremes in the sub-Arctic realm of the North-East Pacific region were investigated through extreme value analysis of wind speed obtained from wind simulations of the COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling, climate version) mesoscale model, as well as using observed data. The analysis showed that the set of wind speed extremes obtained from observations is a mixture of two different subsets each neatly described by the Weibull distribution. Using special metaphoric terminology, they are labelled as “Black Swans” and “Dragons”. The “Dragons” are responsible for strongest extremes. It has been shown that both reanalysis and GCM (general circulation model) data have no “Dragons”. This means that such models underestimate wind speed maxima, and the important circulation process generating the anomalies is not simulated. The COSMO-CLM data have both “Black Swans” and “Dragons”. This evidence provides a clue that an atmospheric model with a detailed spatial resolution (we used in this work the data from domain with 13.2 km spatial resolution) does reproduce the special mechanism responsible for the generation of the largest wind speed extremes. However, a more thorough analysis shows that the differences in the parameters of the cumulative distribution functions are still significant. The ratio between the modelled Dragons and Black Swans can reach up to only 10%. It is much less than 30%, which was the level established for observations.

The Cloud Model for Climate Change

In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a thermodynamic model based on the Greenhouse Effect, aiming to forecast global temperatures. This study delves into the intricacies of that model. Some interesting observations are revealed. The IPCC model equated average temperatures with average energy fluxes, which can cause significant errors. The model assumed that all energy fluxes remained constant, and the Earth emitted infrared radiation as if it were a blackbody. Neither of those conditions exists. The IPCC’s definition of Climate Change only includes events caused by human actions, excluding most causes. Satellite data aimed at the tops of clouds may have inferred a high Greenhouse Gas absorption flux. The model showed more energy coming from the atmosphere than absorbed from the sun, which may have caused a violation of the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. There were unexpectedly large gaps in the satellite data that aligned with various absorption bands of Greenhouse Gases, possibly caused by photon scattering associated with re-emissions. Based on science, we developed a cloud-based climate model that complied with the Radiation Laws and the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. The Cloud Model showed that 81.3% of the outgoing reflected and infrared radiation was applicable to the clouds and water vapor. In comparison, the involvement of CO2 was only 0.04%, making it too minuscule to measure reliably.

Study on Velocity Structure Models of the Sub-Sediments in Zhapu and Jintang near the Hangzhou Bay

Marine sediment velocity structural models have strong regional characteristics.Hamilton made two shallow continental shelf sediment velocity structure models,Lu Bo gave a model in accordance with the characteristics of the continental shelf of China.However,no model can contain all geological situations.We got the in-situ velocity data at Zhapu and Jintang near the Hangzhou Bay by using the MFI GeoA(Multi-Frequency In-situ Geoacoustic Measurement),and used these data to make the velocity structure models.Finally,we got two different models.One is Zhapu velocity structural model that we can describe as Lower velocity-Higher velocity -Lower velocity-Higher velocity model simply。

基于“2-4”模型和Apriori算法的商业综合体火灾成因分析

为深入分析商业综合体火灾事故成因,揭示事故致因因素之间的关联规则,运用事故致因“2-4”模型和Apriori算法,对40起商业综合体火灾事故原因进行分析,研究结果表明:在组织文化、管理体系、个体能力和个体动作4个层面中,安全主体责任的认识(100%)、安全管理制度未执行(80%)、无安全培训(70%)等因素是火灾事故的主要原因;通过Apriori算法挖掘出277条关联规则,并从高支持度、高置信度和高提升度3个维度进行深入分析,发现员工参与度与防火意识薄弱、安全管理知识匮乏与报警意识薄弱且应急响应不及时等因素之间存在显著关联。基于分析结果,提出加强安全责任意识、完善管理制度执行、强化安全培训等针对性建议,为商业综合体火灾预防提供理论依据和实践指导。

Kinetic Modelling of the Influence of H₂S on Dibenzothiophene Hydrodesulfurization in a Batch System over Nano-MoS₂

In this work, the possibility of enhanced activity during the hydrodesulfurization of dibenzothiophene over certain nano-MoS2 catalyst due to the presence of H2S was examined by focusing on the reaction kinetics. With H2S generated in situ, the overall reaction followed the autocatalytic rate law;while in the absence of H2S the kinetics indicated a pseudo-first-order reaction. H2S appears to modify the relative contributions of parallel hydrogenation and desulfurization reactions by drastically increasing the hydrogenation rate. Kinetic models were developed that describe the hydrodesulfurization reaction at various H2S concentrations, and the kinetic parameters and adsorption equilibrium constants associated with this process were estimated by fitting the experimental data. The results suggest that the promotion and/or inhibition of hydrodesulfurization by H2S likely result from the same overall reaction mechanism.