The two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016.This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by age...The two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016.This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility.It argues that the universal two-child policy is timely and necessary for the New Normal economy.The policy has significance in relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth,for which it is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition.Having reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory,this research undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition in different regions across the world.It further investigates the three stages of successful demographic transition in China.The universally adopted two-child policy,as it meets the requirements of demographic transition,is also inevitable for socio-economic development.展开更多
This introduction aims at placing the unfolding sub-patterns of the Asian“Second Demographic Transition”(SDT)in a global context by contrasting them with those of societies with other than patriarchal histories.Firs...This introduction aims at placing the unfolding sub-patterns of the Asian“Second Demographic Transition”(SDT)in a global context by contrasting them with those of societies with other than patriarchal histories.Firstly,fertility transitions to below-replacement level can be achieved as part of the first“altruistic”transition without any SDT traits being present.Secondly,Asian societies are by no means immune to genuine SDT developments,as illustrated by the emergence and spread of pre-marital cohabitation.Thirdly,the SDT cohabitation pattern is still conservative:it is followed by marriage,pregnancies result in shotgun marriages or abortions,and parenthood within consensual unions remains rare.Also divorce rates are low.But it is also argued that all Asian cases are still at the beginning of the possible SDT evolution or have barely started it,and that old ways can die off rather quickly with the succession of generations.Finally,it is shown that the cultural component,i.e.the“Willingness”condition,can act as a bottleneck slowing down the transition to a new pattern of behaviour.We therefore illustrate on a global scale how the spread of cohabitation is part of a broader ethical revolution stressing individual rather than societal discretion in matters of life and death.On the basis of these profiles we expect stronger resistance to SDT patterns of partnerhip formation in Hindu and Muslim societies.展开更多
文摘The two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016.This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility.It argues that the universal two-child policy is timely and necessary for the New Normal economy.The policy has significance in relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth,for which it is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition.Having reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory,this research undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition in different regions across the world.It further investigates the three stages of successful demographic transition in China.The universally adopted two-child policy,as it meets the requirements of demographic transition,is also inevitable for socio-economic development.
文摘This introduction aims at placing the unfolding sub-patterns of the Asian“Second Demographic Transition”(SDT)in a global context by contrasting them with those of societies with other than patriarchal histories.Firstly,fertility transitions to below-replacement level can be achieved as part of the first“altruistic”transition without any SDT traits being present.Secondly,Asian societies are by no means immune to genuine SDT developments,as illustrated by the emergence and spread of pre-marital cohabitation.Thirdly,the SDT cohabitation pattern is still conservative:it is followed by marriage,pregnancies result in shotgun marriages or abortions,and parenthood within consensual unions remains rare.Also divorce rates are low.But it is also argued that all Asian cases are still at the beginning of the possible SDT evolution or have barely started it,and that old ways can die off rather quickly with the succession of generations.Finally,it is shown that the cultural component,i.e.the“Willingness”condition,can act as a bottleneck slowing down the transition to a new pattern of behaviour.We therefore illustrate on a global scale how the spread of cohabitation is part of a broader ethical revolution stressing individual rather than societal discretion in matters of life and death.On the basis of these profiles we expect stronger resistance to SDT patterns of partnerhip formation in Hindu and Muslim societies.
