Changes in Mixed Layer Depth and Spring Bloom in the Kuroshio Extension under Global Warming

The mixed layer is deep in January-April in the Kuroshio Extension region. This paper investigates the response in this region of mixed layer depth （MLD） and the spring bloom initiation to global warming using the output of 15 models from CMIP5. The models indicate that in the late 21st century the mixed layer will shoal and the MLD reduction will be most pronounced in spring at about 33~N on the southern edge of the present deep-MLD region. The advection of temperature change in the upper 100 m by the mean eastward flow explains the spatial pattern of MLD shoaling in the models. Associated with the shoaling mixed layer, the onset of spring bloom inception is projected to advance due to the strengthened stratification in the warming climate.

On the Response of the Global Subduction Rate to Global Warming in Coupled Climate Models

The response of the global subduction rate to global warming was assessed based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） models. It was found that the subduction rate of the global ocean could be significantly reduced under a warming climate, as compared to a simulation of the present-day climate. The reduction in the subduction volume was quantitatively estimated at about 40 Sv and was found to be= primarily induced by the decreasing of the lateral induction term due to a shallower winter mixed layer depth. The shrinking of the winter mixed layer would result from intensified stratification caused by increased heat input into the ocean under a warming climate. A reduction in subduction associated with the vertical pumping term was estimated at about 5 Sv. F^rther, in the Southern Ocean, a significant reduction in subduction was estimated at around 24 Sv, indicating a substantial contribution to the weakening of global subduction.

North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water simulation and future projection

The present climate simulation and future projection of the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water （ESTMW） in the North Pacific are investigated based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model （GFDL-ESM2M）. Spatial patterns of the mixed layer depth （MLD） in the eastern subtropical North Pacific and the ESTMW are well simulated using this model. Compared with historical simulation, the ESTMW is produced at lighter isopycnal surfaces and its total volume is decreased in the RCP8.5 runs, because the subduction rate of the ESTMW decreases by 0.82×10？6 m/s during February–March. In addition, it is found that the lateral induction decreasing is approximately four times more than the Ekman pumping, and thus it plays a dominant role in the decreased subduction rate associated with global warming. Moreover, the MLD during February–March is banded shoaling in response to global warming, extending northeastward from the east of the Hawaii Islands （20°N, 155°W） to the west coast of North America （30°N, 125°W）, with a max-imum shoaling of 50 m, and then leads to the lateral induction reduction. Meanwhile, the increased north-eastward surface warm current to the east of Hawaii helps strengthen of the local upper ocean stratification and induces the banded shoaling MLD under warmer climate. This new finding indicates that the ocean surface currents play an important role in the response of the MLD and the ESTMW to global warming.

副热带东北太平洋混合层深度及潜沉率季节循环对全球变暖的响应

本文利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中的地球系统模式(ESM2M),结合Argo观测数据和由Ishii等整理的再分析数据集,分析现在气候背景和辐射强迫极端增强下副热带东北太平洋海域(10°~40°N,110°~160°W)混合层深度(MLD)和潜沉率的季节变化特征,研究其对全球变暖的响应。在现在气候背景下,二者最大值均出现在冬季。潜沉率的主要贡献项存在显著的季节变化差异,1−5月主要受侧向潜沉率的变化控制,6−12月则由风应力旋度导致的埃克曼抽吸速度变化主控。全球变暖后,季节循环信号的主控要素不变。但受风应力旋度等要素变化的影响,各季节的MLD减小,大值区范围收缩。由于冬季减小幅度远大于夏季,MLD季节波动幅度(振幅)显著变小。长期看,MLD呈现持续变浅的趋势,其空间不均匀性减弱引起的MLD锋面减弱是控制侧向潜沉率减弱,最终导致总潜沉率减弱的关键。由于埃克曼抽吸速度的季节变化信号对全球变暖的响应较小,因此总潜沉率在冬季受全球变暖的影响最为强烈。上述结果表明,构成潜沉率的两个关键要素对总潜沉率的贡献比例是随着季节变化而改变的:冬季MLD锋面强盛时期,侧向潜沉率的影响将显著增强。全球变暖前后二者截然不同的变化会显著改变潜沉率的季节循环振幅,可能对该区域模态水的形成和输运产生深远的影响。