Seasonal prediction of East Asia(EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal r...Seasonal prediction of East Asia(EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal rainfall(SFR) during early summer(May-June mean, MJ) by considering Arctic sea ice(ASI) variability as a new potential predictor. A MJ SFR index(SFRI), the leading principle component of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis applied to the MJ precipitation anomaly over EA, is defined as the predictand. Analysis of 38-year observations(1979-2016) revealed three physically consequential predictors. A stronger SFRI is preceded by dipolar ASI anomaly in the previous autumn, a sea level pressure(SLP) dipole in the Eurasian continent, and a sea surface temperature anomaly tripole pattern in the tropical Pacific in the previous winter. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Okhotsk High, lower local SLP over EA, and a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high. These factors are controlling circulation features for a positive SFRI. A physical-empirical model was established to predict SFRI by combining the three predictors. Hindcasting was performed for the 1979-2016 period, which showed a hindcast prediction skill that was, unexpectedly, substantially higher than that of a four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for the 1979-2010 period(0.72 versus 0.47). Note that ASI variation is a new predictor compared with signals originating from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The long-lead hindcast skill was notably lower without the ASI signals included, implying the high practical value of ASI variation in terms of long-lead seasonal prediction of MJ EA rainfall.展开更多
Based on the conventional observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the circulation situation,influencing systems and causes of the heavy rain during September 20-21,2010 in Ulanqab City were analyzed from the ev...Based on the conventional observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the circulation situation,influencing systems and causes of the heavy rain during September 20-21,2010 in Ulanqab City were analyzed from the evolution process of weather circulation situation and the changes of various physical quantity fields.The results show that there was an obvious frontal zone between 45-52°N,which brought strong cold air.The transport of warm and humid air outside the subtropical high and typhoon was the main water vapor source of the strong precipitation,and the southwest jet at 700 hPa transported abundant water vapor.There was a broad inverted trough to the south of 45°N,with a central value of 1000.0 hPa.Ulanqab City was on the top of the inverted trough,stable and less moved,which was conducive to the occurrence of systematic heavy precipitation.The rainstorm was a strong precipitation process caused by the intersection of cold air brought by the southward movement of the upper frontal zone and warm and humid air outside the subtropical high.After the precipitation,the invasion of strong cold air brought frost and cold wave weather to Ulanqab City.展开更多
为研究江西梅雨期暴雨的特点,利用常规观测资料、NCEP FNL再分析资料等对2019年6月9日和6月22日出现的2次区域性强暴雨天气过程进行了对比分析。结果表明:高空均处南亚高压东北侧脊线附近的反气旋环流辐散区中,500 h Pa中层中高纬均为...为研究江西梅雨期暴雨的特点,利用常规观测资料、NCEP FNL再分析资料等对2019年6月9日和6月22日出现的2次区域性强暴雨天气过程进行了对比分析。结果表明:高空均处南亚高压东北侧脊线附近的反气旋环流辐散区中,500 h Pa中层中高纬均为两槽一脊的形势,东北冷涡中心引出的东亚大槽引导槽后干冷空气南下,中低纬副热带高压稳定维持,中低层均有切变、低涡和低空急流配合是2次暴雨过程共同的环流背景特征;2次过程均存在对流性不稳定层结,利于暴雨强降水天气的出现,只是热力机制强度不同;低层切变、低涡和低空西南急流的共同作用是2次暴雨过程中相同的动力触发机制,水汽和稳定度条件满足的情况下,即使只是近地层的辐合抬升,也能触发不稳定能量的释放而造成强对流天气;低层切变、低空西南急流左侧或左前方强中心辐合带的位置是预报暴雨带位置的关键因素。展开更多
A two-dimensional,semi-geostrophic numerical model incorporating the tropopause and stratosphere is used to investigate the effects of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and latent heat release on the frontogeneti...A two-dimensional,semi-geostrophic numerical model incorporating the tropopause and stratosphere is used to investigate the effects of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and latent heat release on the frontogenetic process and the structure of the resulting frontal zone.It is demonstrated that(1)the inclusion of tropopause and stratosphere significantly changes the frontal structure only in the upper levels;(2)a clearly defined quasi-equivalent barotropic structure and a region of upward motion of finite width appear when a positive potential vorticity anomaly exists on the warm side of the maximum baroclinity in the lower troposphere,especially when it is located on the south edge of the baroclinic zone;(3)the above mentioned structure deteriorates as the frontogenesis proceeds in a dry atmosphere but can be maintained in a moist frontogenetic process with condensational heating;(4)the combination of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and the latent heat release is able to accelerate the frontogenesis significantly with the time needed to form an intense frontal zone reduced to less than 15 h.The results have significant theoretical importance in understanding the complex nature of frontal structure and frontogenesis,especially in understanding the dynamic structure of the subtropical frontal zone observed during early summer over East Asia.展开更多
基金supported by the Global Change Research Program of China (No. 2015CB953904)the Nationa Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41575067)
文摘Seasonal prediction of East Asia(EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal rainfall(SFR) during early summer(May-June mean, MJ) by considering Arctic sea ice(ASI) variability as a new potential predictor. A MJ SFR index(SFRI), the leading principle component of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis applied to the MJ precipitation anomaly over EA, is defined as the predictand. Analysis of 38-year observations(1979-2016) revealed three physically consequential predictors. A stronger SFRI is preceded by dipolar ASI anomaly in the previous autumn, a sea level pressure(SLP) dipole in the Eurasian continent, and a sea surface temperature anomaly tripole pattern in the tropical Pacific in the previous winter. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Okhotsk High, lower local SLP over EA, and a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high. These factors are controlling circulation features for a positive SFRI. A physical-empirical model was established to predict SFRI by combining the three predictors. Hindcasting was performed for the 1979-2016 period, which showed a hindcast prediction skill that was, unexpectedly, substantially higher than that of a four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for the 1979-2010 period(0.72 versus 0.47). Note that ASI variation is a new predictor compared with signals originating from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The long-lead hindcast skill was notably lower without the ASI signals included, implying the high practical value of ASI variation in terms of long-lead seasonal prediction of MJ EA rainfall.
文摘Based on the conventional observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the circulation situation,influencing systems and causes of the heavy rain during September 20-21,2010 in Ulanqab City were analyzed from the evolution process of weather circulation situation and the changes of various physical quantity fields.The results show that there was an obvious frontal zone between 45-52°N,which brought strong cold air.The transport of warm and humid air outside the subtropical high and typhoon was the main water vapor source of the strong precipitation,and the southwest jet at 700 hPa transported abundant water vapor.There was a broad inverted trough to the south of 45°N,with a central value of 1000.0 hPa.Ulanqab City was on the top of the inverted trough,stable and less moved,which was conducive to the occurrence of systematic heavy precipitation.The rainstorm was a strong precipitation process caused by the intersection of cold air brought by the southward movement of the upper frontal zone and warm and humid air outside the subtropical high.After the precipitation,the invasion of strong cold air brought frost and cold wave weather to Ulanqab City.
文摘为研究江西梅雨期暴雨的特点,利用常规观测资料、NCEP FNL再分析资料等对2019年6月9日和6月22日出现的2次区域性强暴雨天气过程进行了对比分析。结果表明:高空均处南亚高压东北侧脊线附近的反气旋环流辐散区中,500 h Pa中层中高纬均为两槽一脊的形势,东北冷涡中心引出的东亚大槽引导槽后干冷空气南下,中低纬副热带高压稳定维持,中低层均有切变、低涡和低空急流配合是2次暴雨过程共同的环流背景特征;2次过程均存在对流性不稳定层结,利于暴雨强降水天气的出现,只是热力机制强度不同;低层切变、低涡和低空西南急流的共同作用是2次暴雨过程中相同的动力触发机制,水汽和稳定度条件满足的情况下,即使只是近地层的辐合抬升,也能触发不稳定能量的释放而造成强对流天气;低层切变、低空西南急流左侧或左前方强中心辐合带的位置是预报暴雨带位置的关键因素。
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘A two-dimensional,semi-geostrophic numerical model incorporating the tropopause and stratosphere is used to investigate the effects of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and latent heat release on the frontogenetic process and the structure of the resulting frontal zone.It is demonstrated that(1)the inclusion of tropopause and stratosphere significantly changes the frontal structure only in the upper levels;(2)a clearly defined quasi-equivalent barotropic structure and a region of upward motion of finite width appear when a positive potential vorticity anomaly exists on the warm side of the maximum baroclinity in the lower troposphere,especially when it is located on the south edge of the baroclinic zone;(3)the above mentioned structure deteriorates as the frontogenesis proceeds in a dry atmosphere but can be maintained in a moist frontogenetic process with condensational heating;(4)the combination of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and the latent heat release is able to accelerate the frontogenesis significantly with the time needed to form an intense frontal zone reduced to less than 15 h.The results have significant theoretical importance in understanding the complex nature of frontal structure and frontogenesis,especially in understanding the dynamic structure of the subtropical frontal zone observed during early summer over East Asia.
