SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL MONSOON AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP) rain data are used to investigate the large scale seasonal transition of East Asian subtropical monsoon(EASM) and its possible mechanism.The key region of EASM is defined according to the seasonal transition feature of meridional wind.By combining the 'thermal wind' formula and the 'thermal adaptation' equation,a new 'thermal-wind-precipitation' relation is deduced.The area mean wind directions and thermal advections in different seasons are analyzed and it is shown that in summer(winter) monsoon period,the averaged wind direction in the EASM region varies clockwise(anticlockwise) with altitude,and the EASM region is dominated by warm(cold) advection.The seasonal transition of the wind direction at different levels and the corresponding meridional circulation consistently indicates that the subtropical summer monsoon is established between the end of March and the beginning of April.Finally,a conceptual schematic explanation for the mechanism of seasonal transition of EASM is proposed.

The Long-Term Field Experiment Observatory and Preliminary Analysis of Land-Atmosphere Interaction over Hilly Zone in the Subtropical Monsoon Region of Southern China

To improve current understanding of the water cycle,energy partitioning and CO2 exchange over hilly zone vegetative land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon environment of southern China,a long-term field experiment observatory was set up at Ningxiang,eastern Hunan Province.This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the field observations at the observatory collected from August to November 2012.Results show that significant diurnal variations in soil temperature occur only in shallow soil layers(0.05,0.10,and 0.20 m),and that heavy rainfall affects soil moisture in the deep layers(≥ 0.40 m).During the experimental period,significant diurnal variations in albedo,radiation components,energy components,and CO2 flux were observed,but little seasonal variation.Strong photosynthesis in the vegetation canopy enhanced the CO2 absorption and the latent heat released in daylight hours;Latent heat of evaporation was the main consumer of available energy in late summer.Because the field experiment data are demonstrably reliable,the observatory will provide reliable long-term measurements for future investigations of the land-atmosphere interaction over hilly land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon region of southern China.

Discussion of Some Problems as to the East Asian Subtropical Monsoon

Based on NCEP/NCAR gridded reanalysis, TRMM precipitation data, CMAP, and rainfall observations in East China, a study is conducted with focus on the timing and distinctive establishment of the rainy season of the East Asian subtropical monsoon （EASM） in relation to the South China Sea （SCS） tropical summer monsoon （SCSM）. A possible mechanism for the EASM is investigated. The results suggest that 1） the EASM rainy season begins at first over the south of the Jiangnan region to the north of South China in late March to early April （i.e., pentads 16-18）, and then the early flooding period in South China starts when southerly winds enhance and convective rainfall increases pronouncedly; 2） the establishment of the EASM rainy season is earlier than that of its counterpart, the SCSM. The EASM and the SCSM each is featured with its own independent rain belt, strong southwesterly wind, intense vertical motion, and robust low-level water vapor convergence. The SCSM interacts with the EASM, causing the EASM rainy belt to move northward. The two systems are responsible for the floods/droughts over the eastern China; and 3） in mid-late March, the eastern Asian landmass （especially the Tibetan Plateau） has its thermal condition changing from a cold to a heat source for the atmosphere. A reversal of the zonal thermal contrast and related temperature and pressure contrasts between the landmass and the western Pacific happens. The argument about whether or not the dynamic and thermal effects of the landmass really act as a mechanism for the earlier establishment of the EASM rain belt is discussed and to be further clarified. Finally, the article presents some common understandings and disagreements regarding the EASM.

AN EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX DEFINED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT

Using daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and observation rainfall data in China for the 1971-2000 period, a subtropical summer monsoon index has been defined by meridional moisture transport of the total atmosphere column. Results show that the subtropical summer monsoon index defined by the difference of meridional moisture transport between South China and North China can be used to describe the intensity of the subtropical summer monsoon. High (low) index is corresponding to strong (weak) subtropical summer monsoon. And the new index is well related to the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. In addition, the convergence of moisture transport from the west Pacific via the South China Sea and that from the North China may be responsible for the anomalously excessive summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

Impact of Urban Land-Use Change in Eastern China on the East Asian Subtropical Monsoon:A Numerical Study

The effect of urban land-use change in eastern China on the East Asian subtropical monsoon（EASTM） is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.Comparison of the results between the urban expansion and reference experiments shows that with the urban expansion,the land surface energy balance alters：surface net radiation and sensible heat fluxes enhance while the latent heat fluxes reduce.As a result,a significant increase in surface air temperature over eastern China is detected.The urban land-use change contributes to a change in the zonal land-sea temperature difference（LSTD）,leading to a delay in the time when LSTD changes from positive to negative,and vice versa.Additionally,the onset and retreat dates of the EASTM are also delayed.Meanwhile,the rise in surface air temperature leads to formation of abnormal northerly air flows,which may be the reason for the slower northward movement of the EASTM and a more southward location of its northern boundary.

Definition and characteristics of the south edge of the subtropical winter monsoon in East Asian

Based on observational daily data of 730 meteorological stations in China, the south edge of the subtropical winter monsoon is defined according to relevant criterion and its variation characteristics are analyzed. Results show that this south edge has obvious inter-annual variation characteristics and shows a northward moving tendency as a whole, but since the 21 st century it has moved southwards and date of the south edge entering winter becomes earlier. Wind fields of the anomalously northward south edge of the subtropical winter monsoon in East Asia has an obvious southerly wind component which prevents cold air from moving southward. The index of this south edge and winter temperature has a positive correlation. Climate warming might be the main reason for the northward movement of the south edge of the subtropical winter monsoon.

THE EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ITS RELATION WITH THE CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN CHINA

A new East Asian subtropical summer monsoon circulation index is defined, where the barotropic and baroclinic components of circulation are included. Results show that this index can well indicate the interannual variability of summer precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. A strong monsoon is characterized by more rainfall in the Yellow River basin and northern China, less rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, and more rainfall in south and southeast China, in association with higher temperature in most areas of China. Furthermore, comparison is made between the index proposed in this paper and other monsoon indexes in representing climate anomalies in China.

Variable and Robust East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Response to El Nio over the Past 60 Years(1957–2016)

Severe flooding occurred in southern and northern China during the summer of 2016 when the 2015 super El Nio decayed to a normal condition. However, the mean precipitation during summer（June–July-August） 2016 does not show significant anomalies, suggesting that — over East Asia（EA） — seasonal mean anomalies have limited value in representing hydrological hazards. Scrutinizing season-evolving precipitation anomalies associated with 16 El Nio episodes during 1957–2016 reveals that, over EA, the spatiotemporal patterns among the four categories of El Nio events are quite variable, due to a large range of variability in the intensity and evolution of El Nio events and remarkable subseasonal migration of the rainfall anomalies. The only robust seasonal signal is the dry anomalies over central North China during the El Nio developing summer. Distinguishing strong and weak El Nio impacts is important. Only strong El Nio events can persistently enhance EA subtropical frontal precipitation from the peak season of El Nio to the ensuing summer, by stimulating intense interaction between the anomalous western Pacific anticyclone（WPAC） and underlying dipolar sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, thereby maintaining the WPAC and leading to a prolonged El Nio impact on EA. A weak El Nio may also enhance the post-El Nio summer rainfall over EA, but through a different physical process： the WPAC re-emerges as a forced response to the rapid cooling in the eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the skillful prediction of rainfall over continental EA requires the accurate prediction of not only the strength and evolution of El Nio, but also the subseasonal migration of EA rainfall anomalies.

A STUDY ON RELATION BETWEEN EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON AND CLIMATE CHANGE DURING RAINING SEASON IN CHINA

Based on the data of NCEP, OLR and rainfall of China, we studied the influences of the East Asian winter monsoon activities on the precipitation during the raining season over China by correlation analysis and composite analysis. The result shows that annual and interdecadal change of East Asian winter monsoon is distinct. It is strong from 1950s to the middle of 1980s but weak after the middle of 1980s. The effect of abnormal winter monsoon on the precipitation during raining season is significant over the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River basin. It is revealed that the precipitation will increase when preceding winter monsoon is weak but decrease when preceding winter monsoon is strong. In this paper, some appropriate reasons are given to explain the abnormal rainfall by analyzing the distribution of SSTA and the variation of summer circulation. It is pointed out definitely that the variation of SSTA and summer circulation is a primary cause for abnormal rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.

A Diagnostic Study of the Influence of Early Spring Soil Moisture in Southeastern China on Interannual Variability of the East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Onset

The effect of soil moisture(SM)on the onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon(EASSM)is investigated based on multiple sets of reanalysis data in the period of 1981–2010.It is found that the EASSM is characterized by persistent 2-m s^(−1) southerly winds for about 3 months in spring at 850 hPa over the subtropical region of East Asia.Considering this feature of the meridional winds,we define the EASSM onset date,and obtain that the climatological onset date is pentad 17.7,around 26 March.On the interannual timescale,the onset date of EASSM exhibits statistically significant correlation with the SM in southeastern China in the month preceding the onset,with wetter(drier)conditions being associated with later(earlier)onset.The physical process by which the preceding SM affects the EASSM onset is further explored by examining the surface energy balance as well as its impacts.Positive(negative)SM anomalies in southeastern China in the month before onset may induce negative(positive)surface temperature anomalies.The decreased(increased)surface temperature in southeastern China before the EASSM onset weakens(strengthens)the zonal sea–land thermal contrast in the surface and low-level atmosphere in the subtropical East Asia.The zonal sea–land thermal contrast in wetter(drier)years induces anomalous northerly(southerly)winds over southeastern China,which tends to delay(advance)the zonal thermal seasonal transition in spring and is conducive to a later(earlier)onset of EASSM.These results are helpful for understanding and prediction of the variability of EASSM and the EASSM onset.

The East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon：Recent Progress

The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon（EASSM） is one component of the East Asian summer monsoon system,and its evolution determines the weather and climate over East China.In the present paper,we firstly demonstrate the formation and advancement of the EASSM rainbelt and its associated circulation and precipitation patterns through reviewing recent studies and our own analysis based on JRA-55（Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis） data and CMAP（CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation）,GPCP（Global Precipitation Climatology Project）,and TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission） precipitation data.The results show that the rainy season of the EASSM starts over the region to the south of the Yangtze River in early April,with the establishment of strong southerly wind in situ.The EASSM rainfall,which is composed of dominant convective and minor stratiform precipitation,is always accompanied by a frontal system and separated from the tropical summer monsoon system.It moves northward following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon.Moreover,the role of the land-sea thermal contrast in the formation and maintenance of the EASSM is illustrated,including in particular the effect of the seasonal transition of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and the influences from the Tibetan Plateau and midlatitudes.In addition,we reveal a possible reason for the subtropical climate difference between East Asia and East America.Finally,the multi-scale variability of the EASSM and its influential factors are summarized to uncover possible reasons for the intraseasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variability of the EASSM and their importance in climate prediction.

DIAGNOSES OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT OVER YUNNAN AREA IN THE EARLY SUMMER OF 2005

High temperature and drought occurred in Yunnan province during the late spring and early summer in 2005, which was the most severe event in this region since 1950’s. Based on the observational data and relevant diagnoses, this extreme weather event was studied and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of this event could be due to the following observational facts that happened in 2005. (1) The seasonal adjustment of middle-high-leveled atmospheric circulation was delayed. (2) The cold air activity center was deviated north. (3) The onset of summer monsoon over South China Sea was delayed. (4) The tropical convection activity was much weaker than usual. (5) The subtropical high over the western Pacific was located southwestwards and relatively strong.

Paleogeography control of Indian monsoon intensification and expansion at 41 Ma

As a crucial part of the Asian monsoon stretching from tropical India to temperate East Asia, the Indian monsoon(IM) contributes predominant precipitation over Asian continent. However, our understanding of IM’s onset, development and the underlying driving mechanisms is limited. Increasing evidence indicates that the IM began in the Eocene or even the Paleocene and was unexceptionally linked to the early rise of the Tibetan Plateau(TP). These were challenged by the heterogeneous and diachronous uplift of the TP and all the reported records were confined to tropical zone under tropical monsoon driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) that is irrelevant to the TP. Therefore, reliable paleoclimatic records from the extra-tropical IM region is crucial to reveal how the tropical IM expanded to subtropical and temperate zones and what driving factors might be related to it. Here we present robust Eocene paleoenvironmental records from central Yunnan(~26°N) in subtropical East Asia. The multiproxy results of two sites demonstrate a consistent sudden switch from a dry environment in the early Eocene to a seasonally wet one at 41 Ma, suggesting a jump of the tropical IM to the southern subtropical zone at 41 Ma.The full collision of India with Asia, and the resulting changes in paleogeography at 41 Ma(closure of the Neotethys sea, retreat of the Paratethys seas, fast northward movement of the southern margin of the TP and rise of the central TP), aided by synchronous Antarctic cooling, might have worked together to drive the IM enhancement and northward expansion.

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 and NCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,the distribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in this paper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asian region from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropical monsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and the recurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so- called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.The latter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South China Sea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northward shift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-flood rainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfall appeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China then formed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998 is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea, which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into South China Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross- equatorial flow.

Changed Relationships Between the East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulations and the Summer Rainfall in Eastern China

In previous statistical forecast models,prediction of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River valley and in North China relies heavily on its close relationships with the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH）,the blocking high in higher latitudes,and the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM）.These relationships were stable before the 1990 s but have changed remarkably in the recent two decades.Before the 1990 s,precipitation along the Yangtze River had a significant positive correlation with the intensity of the WPSH,but the correlation weakened rapidly after 1990,and the correlation between summer rainfall in North China and the WPSH also changed from weak negative to significantly positive.The changed relationships present a big challenge to the application of traditional statistical seasonal prediction models.Our study indicates that the change could be attributed to expansion of the WPSH after around 1990.Owing to global warming,increased sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific rendered the WPSH stronger and further westward.Under this condition,more moisture was transported from southern to northern China,leading to divergence and reduced（increased） rainfall over the Yangtze River（North China）.On the other hand,when the WPSH was weaker,it stayed close to its climatological position（rather than more eastward）,and the circulations showed an asymmetrical feature between the stronger and weaker WPSH cases owing to the decadal enhancement of the WPSH.Composite analysis reveals that the maximum difference in the moisture transport before and after 1990 appeared over the western Pacific.This asymmetric influence is possibly the reason why the previous relationships between monsoon circulations and summer rainfall have now changed.

Impact of subtropical climate on frequency of ambulance use for trauma patients in a coastal area of China

Purpose： To explore the impact of subtropical maritime monsoon climate on the frequency of ambulance use for trauma patients in a coastal region in China. Method： Statistical analysis of data on ambulance use from the 120 Emergency Command Center in Shantou City, Guangdong Province, from January to December 2012 as well as daily meteorological data from a Shantou observatory was performed to determine how climatic factors （seasons, time, and weather） affect the frequency of ambulance use for trauma patients. Results： The daily ambulance use for trauma patients differed between spring and summer or autumn （p 〈 0.05）, between sunny and rainy days （p 〈 0.05）, and between cloudy and lightly or moderately rainy days （p 〈 0.05）. We found a linear correlation between daily maximum temperature and daily ambulance use for trauma patients （R^2 0.103, p 〈 0.05）. In addition, there was significant difference in ambulance use between good and bad weather （p 〈 0.05）. Conclusion： Frequency of ambulance use for trauma patients is affected by the subtropical maritime monsoon climate in the coastal region. Better weather contributes to increased daily frequency of ambulance use, which is the highest in autumn and lowest in spring.