Multi-decadal Changes of the Impact of El Niño Events on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has an important effect on the water supply and demand of the downstream population.Involving recent climate change,the multi-decadal variations of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events on regional climate were observed.In this work,the authors investigated the changes in summer precipitation over TP during 1950-2019.At the multi-decadal scale,the authors found that the inhabiting impact of El Niño events on the TP summer precipitation has strengthened since the late 1970s.The main factor contributing to this phenomenon is the significant amplification in the decadal amplitude of El Niño during 1978-2019 accompanied by a discernible escalation in the frequency of El Niño events.This phenomenon induces anomalous perturbations in sea surface temperatures(SST)within the tropical Indo-Pacific region,consequently weakening the atmospheric vapor transport from the western Pacific to the TP.Additionally,conspicuous anomalies in subsidence motion are observed longitudinally and latitudinally across the TP which significantly contributes to a curtailed supply of atmospheric moisture.These results bear profound implications for the multi-decadal prediction of the TP climate.

Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China Summer Precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation,which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).In this study,results show that spring soil moisture(SM)over the Indo-China peninsula(ICP)could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO conditions.When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP,they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China.The resultant south-to-north,tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased(decreased)precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased(increased)in South and North China with a drier(wetter)spring soil condition in the ICP.The analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying summer.In the case of ENSO forcing,the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed.However,in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter,the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature,which could,in turn,lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation.The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China,which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.

Moisture Sources and Their Contributions to Summer Precipitation in the East of Southwest China

Complex topography,special geographical location and sea-land-air interactions lead to high interannual variability of summer precipitation in the east of Southwest China(ESWC).However,the contributions,influencing factors and mechanisms of remote and local evaporation remain to be further investigated.Using clustering analysis and Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory version 5 model,we analyze the contributions of remote moisture transport and local evaporation to summer precipitation in the ESWC and their causes.There are mainly five remote moisture channels in the ESWC,namely the Arabian Sea channel,Bay of Bengal channel,western Pacific channel,Northwest channel 1 and Northwest channel 2.Among the five channels,the western Pacific channel has the largest number of trajectories,while the Bay of Bengal channel has the largest contribution rate of specific humidity(33.33%)and moisture flux(33.14%).The amount of regional average precipitation is close to that of the precipitation caused by remote moisture transport,and both are considerably greater than the rainfall amount caused by local evaporation.However,on interannual time scales,precipitation recirculation rates are negatively correlated to regional average precipitation and precipitation caused by remote moisture transport but are consistent with that caused by local evaporation.An apparent"+-+"wave train can be found on the height anomaly field in East Asia,and the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive in the equatorial Middle-East Pacific,the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.These phenomena cause southwest-northeast moisture transport with strong updrafts,thereby resulting in more precipitation in the ESWC.

The Relationship between Melt Season Sea Ice over the Bering Sea and Summer Precipitation over Mid-Latitude East Asia

Independent datasets consistently indicate a significant correlation between the sea ice variability in the Bering Sea during melt season and the summer rainfall variability in the Lake Baikal area and Northeastern China.In this study,four sea ice datasets(HadISST1,HadISST2.2,ERA-Interim and NOAA/NSIDC)and two global precipitation datasets(CRU V4.01 and GPCP V2.3)are used to investigate co-variations between melt season(March−April−May−June,MAMJ)Bering Sea ice cover(BSIC)and summer(June−July−August,JJA)East Asian precipitation.All datasets demonstrate a significant correlation between the MAMJ BSIC and the JJA rainfall in Lake Baikal−Northeastern China(Baikal−NEC).Based on the reanalysis datasets and the numerical sensitivity experiments performed in this study using Community Atmospheric Model version 5(CAM5),a mechanism to understand how the MAMJ BSIC influences the JJA Baikal−NEC rainfall is suggested.More MAMJ BSIC triggers a wave train and causes a positive sea level pressure(SLP)anomaly over the North Atlantic during MAMJ.The high SLP anomaly,associated with an anti-cyclonic wind stress circulation anomaly,favors the appearance of sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in a zonal dipole-pattern in the North Atlantic during summer.The dipole SST anomaly drives a zonally orientated wave train,which causes a high anomaly geopotential height at 500 hPa over the Sea of Japan.As a result,the mean East Asian trough moves westward and a low geopotential height anomaly occurs over Baikal−NEC.This prevailing regional low pressure anomaly together with enhanced moisture transport from the western North Pacific and convergence over Baikal−NEC,positively influences the increased rainfall in summer.

Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development.This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously SINTEX-F).The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands,initialized from 1 March.In addition,the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,but the individual members show great discrepancies,indicating large uncertainty in the forecasts.Furthermore,the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020,albeit with underestimated magnitudes.The Weather Forecast and Research(WRF)downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km,which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method,display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some extent.However,the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill,suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

Distribution of winter-spring snow over the Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with summer precipitationin Yangtze River

The distribution of winter-spring snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and its relationship with summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV) during 2003–2013 have been investigated with the moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer(MODIS) Terra data(MOD10A2) and precipitation observations. Results show that snow cover percentage(SCP) remains approximately 20% in winter and spring then tails off to below 5% with warmer temperature and snow melt in summer. The lower and highest percentages present a declining tendency while the middle SCP exhibits an opposite variation. The maximum value appears from the middle of October to March and the minimum emerges from July to August. The annual and winter-spring SCPs present a decreasing tendency. Snow cover is mainly situated in the periphery of the plateau and mountainous regions, and less snow in the interior of the plateau, basin and valley areas in view of snow cover frequency(SCF) over the TP. Whatever annual or winter-spring snow cover, they all have remarkable declining tendency during 2003–2013, and annual snow cover presents a decreasing trend in the interior of the TP and increasing trend in the periphery of the TP. The multi-year averaged eight-day SCP is negatively related to mean precipitation in the MLYRV. Spring SCP is negatively related to summer precipitation while winter SCP is positively related to summer precipitation in most parts of the MLYRV. Hence, the influence of winter snow cover on precipitation is much more significant than that in spring on the basis of correlation analysis. The oscillation of SCF from southeast to northwest over the TP corresponds well to the beginning, development and cessation of the rain belt in eastern China.

THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS AND DECADAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON THE EAST ASIAN SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CAM3.0

Using the CAM3.0 model, we investigated the respective effects of aerosol concentration increasing and decadal variation of global sea surface temperature(SST) around year 1976/77 on the East Asian precipitation in boreal summer. By doubling the concentration of the sulfate aerosol and black carbon aerosol separately and synchronously in East Asia(100-150 °E, 20-50 °N), the climate effects of these aerosols are specifically investigated. The results show that both the decadal SST changing and aerosol concentration increasing could lead to rainfall decreasing in the center of East Asia, but increasing in the regions along southeast coast areas of China. However, the different patterns of rainfall over ocean and lower wind field over Asian continent between aerosol experiments and SST experiments in CAM3.0 indicate the presence of different mechanisms. In the increased aerosol concentration experiments, scattering effect is the main climate effect for both sulfate and black carbon aerosols in the Eastern Asian summer. Especially in the increased sulfate aerosol concentration experiment, the climate scattering effect of aerosol leads to the most significant temperature decreasing, sinking convection anomalies and decreased rainfall in the troposphere over the central part of East Asia. However, in an increased black carbon aerosol concentration experiment, weakened sinking convection anomalies exist at the southerly position. This weakened sinking and its compensating rising convection anomalies in the south lead to the heavy rainfall over southeast coast areas of China. When concentrations of both sulfate and black carbon aerosols increase synchronously, the anomalous rainfall distribution is somewhat like that in the increased black carbon concentration aerosol experiment but with less intensity.

Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

The Three-River Headwaters(TRH)region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change;changes in summer(June–August)precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream areas.However,the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region,along with their influencing factors,remain unclear.In this study,we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor budget.Our results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 per year(p<0.1)during 1979–2020,with a significant dry-to-wet transition in 2002.The category‘very heavy precipitation’(10 mm d−1)contributed 65.1%of the increased summer precipitation,which occurred frequently in the northern TRH region.The dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each subregion.Southwesterly water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region(158.2%),while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH(155.2%)and eastern TRH(229.2%)regions.Therefore,we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased‘very heavy precipitation’over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.

Moisture Transport in the Asian Summer Monsoon Region and Its Relationship with Summer Precipitation in China

The characteristics of moisture transport over the Asian summer monsoon region and its relationship with summer precipitation in China are examined by a variety of statistical methods using the NCEP/NC AR reanalysis data for 1948-2005.The results show that:1) The zonal-mean moisture transport in the Asian monsoon region is unique because of monsoon activities.The Asian summer monsoon region is a dominant moisture sink during summer.Both the Indian and East Asian monsoon areas have their convergence center, respectively.2) Most moisture congregates in the lower troposphere primarily from the Bay of Bengal in the mid and upper layers,and the vapor flux comes from mid-latitude westerlies as well as the tropical western Pacific Ocean.3) The moisture fluxes by the Indian monsoon enhance from May to July mostly in the zonal transport while those by the East Asian monsoon intensify mainly in the meridional transport from June to July.Both reach their maxima in July and then decrease from August.The sub-tropical westerly moisture fluxes south to the Tibetan Plateau across 90°E are strong in spring,while the mid-high latitude and tropical westerly vapor transfers change in phase and increase from January to July.The tropical westerly transport accounts for about 80%of the total moisture transport in July and only 18%from mid-high latitudes. 4) The moisture transfer and budgets over the Asian monsoon region undergo a substantial change after the South China Sea monsoon onset,especially over the Bay of Bengal,Indo-China Peninsula,and South China Sea.The northern boundary of the South China Sea is of great importance in providing abundant moisture for China mainland during summer.5) The northward progress of the moisture transfer coincides with the seasonal march of the monsoon rainbelts very well.EOF1 of the moisture transport field basically depicts the consistent northward transport anomaly with an obvious decreasing trend over the East Asian monsoon region from 1951 to 2005.Further analyses suggest that this trend owing to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon is largely responsible for the decline of rainfall over North China.The EOF2 reveals that moisture flux convergence from northeast and southwest over the Yangtze River valley shows a slight increasing tendency from the 1980s and it is consistent with the fact of more frequently occurred heavy rainfall over there.The correlation analyses indicate that the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon accounts for the main part of the variation.

Origin of the spatial consistency of summer precipitation variability between the Mongolian Plateau and the mid-latitude East Asian summer monsoon region

The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.

Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM

Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991–2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China(NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic–analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic–analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from –0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009–13/1991–95 when using the equally weighted dynamic–analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction,which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.

THE TIMING OF SOUTH-ASIAN HIGH ESTABLISHMENT AND ITS RELATION TO TROPICAL ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AND PRECIPITATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA IN SUMMER

The timing of the South Asian High(SAH) establishment over the Indochina Peninsula(IP) from April to May and its relations to the setup of the subsequent tropical Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over eastern-central China in summer are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data,outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)data and the daily precipitation data from 753 weather stations in China.It is found that the transitions of the zonal wind vertical shear and convection establishment over tropical Asia are earlier(later) in the years of early(late) establishment of SAH.In the lower troposphere,anti-cyclonic(cyclonic) anomaly circulation dominates the equatorial Indian Ocean.Correspondingly,the tropical Asian summer monsoon establishes earlier(later).Furthermore,the atmospheric circulation and the water vapor transport in the years of advanced SAH establishment are significantly different from the delayed years in Asia in summer.Out-of-phase distribution of precipitation in eastern-central China will appear with a weak(strong) SAH and western Pacific subtropical high,strong(weak) ascending motion in the area south of Yangtze River but weak(strong) ascending motion in the area north of it,and cyclonic(anti-cyclonic) water vapor flux anomaly circulation from the eastern-central China to western Pacific.Accordingly,the timing of the SAH establishment at the upper levels of IP is indicative of the subsequent onset of the tropical Asian summer monsoon and the flood-drought pattern over eastern-central China in summer.

Establishment of Statistical Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Flood Season in China

[Objective] The research aimed to establish the regression model which was used to predict the precipitation in the flood season in China.[Method] Based on statistical model,North Atlantic oscillation index and the sea surface temperature index in development and declining stages of ENSO were used to predict East Asian summer monsoon index.After the stations were divided into 16 zones,the same factors were used to establish the regression model predicting the station precipitation in the flood season in China.Moreover,it was compared with the model that predicted firstly the monsoon index and estimated the precipitation.[Result] The prediction results of summer precipitation during 2005-2009 by every model were contrasted.It was found that the model that the factor predicted indirectly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the station precipitation.Meanwhile,the model that the factor predicted directly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the regional precipitation.The prediction score P of optimum model that three factors predicted directly the regional precipitation reached averagely 74.2,and the anomaly correlation coefficient ACC was averagely 0.219.Seen from the comparison situation of positive and negative zone distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage between the predicted and observed values in 5 years,the prediction effects in the south and east of Northeast China,some areas in the south of Yangtze River,the coast of South China and most areas of Xinjiang were good.The predicted positive/negative distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage tallied with that of observation.[Conclusion] The model could predict well summer precipitation in China.

Summer extreme precipitation patterns and synoptic-scale circulation precursors over the Tibetan Plateau

In the context of global warming,the extreme summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has changed significantly.In this study,the summer(June–August)extreme precipitation on the TP was classified into three spatial types by applying the K-means clustering method to the Third Pole Region long time-series high-resolution(1/30°)precipitation dataset(TPHi Pr,1979–2020).The characteristics of the circulation anomalies and precursors corresponding to the extreme precipitation on the TP in summer during 1979–2020 were investigated.The results showed that the summer extreme precipitation of the TP can be categorized into northwestern(NW),southeastern(SE),and southern Himalayan(HS)types based on extreme precipitation thresholds.The NW and SE types are mainly influenced by anomalous signals in the mid-to-high latitude regions upstream of them,whereas the HS type is controlled by the localized subtropical anomalous circulation.On the 8th day before the onset of the NW type,an anomalous cyclone was observed in the western Atlantic Ocean(60°W,50°N),which triggered the west-to-east quasi-latitudinal propagation of Rossby waves.On the onset day of the NW type,the upper troposphere showed positive-negative-positive geopotential height anomalies along the latitudinal 40°N from the Caspian Sea,the western part of Xinjiang,to the northeastern TP.Moisture entered from the Arabian Sea along the southeastern edge of the anomalous cyclone on the southwestern TP and converged in the northwestern TP.Compared to the NW type,the precursors of the SE type appeared at higher latitudes and were more intense.On the 8th day before the onset of the SE type,an anomalous cyclone occurred near Greenland(60°W,70°N)and excited Rossby waves propagating southeastward.On the onset day of the SE type,the upper troposphere showed negative-positive-negative geopotential height anomalies across Eurasia from the Ural Mountains and the Iranian Plateau to the northern TP in the northwest-southeast direction and entered the southeastern TP from the Bay of Bengal along the southeastern edge of the anomalous cyclone in the southern TP.On the 6th day before the onset of the HS type,the anomalously high pressure in the middle and lower layers of the low-latitude region extended westward,and a significant anticyclonic anomalous circulation occurred on the southern TP on the onset day of the HS type,enabling the delivery of moisture from the Bay of Bengal to the southern foothills of the Himalayas.Additionally,an anomalous cyclone perched in the northeastern TP at a geopotential height of 200 h Pa strengthened westerly winds in the southern TP and contributed to the maintenance of the anticyclonic system on the southern TP.

洞庭湖区域夏季降水与全球大洋海温异常关系的SVD分析(英文)

By dint of the summer precipitation data from 21 stations in the Dongting Lake region during 1960-2008 and the sea surface temperature(SST) data from NOAA,the spatial and temporal distributions of summer precipitation and their correlations with SST are analyzed.The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in summer precipitation and the variation of SST has between studied with the Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) analysis.The increase or decrease of summer precipitation in the Dongting Lake region is closely associated with the SST anomalies in three key regions.The variation of SST in the three key regions has been proved to be a significant previous signal to anomaly of summer rainfall in Dongting region.

The 2016 Summer Floods in China and Associated Physical Mechanisms:A Comparison with 1998

The characteristics of droughts and floods in China during the summers(May–August)of 2016 and 1998 were compared in great detail,together with the associated atmospheric circulations and external-forcing factors.Following results are obtained.(1)The precipitation was mostly above normal in China in summer 2016,with two main rainfall belts located in the Yangtze River valley(YRV)and North China.Compared with 1998,a similar rainfall belt was located over the YRV,with precipitation 100%and more above normal.However,the seasonal processes of Meiyu were different.A typical"Secondary Meiyu"occurred in 1998,whereas dry conditions dominated the YRV in2016.(2)During May–July 2016,the Ural high was weaker than normal,but it was stronger than normal in 1998.This difference resulted from fairly different distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)over the North Atlantic Ocean during the preceding winter and spring of the two years.(3)Nonetheless,tropical and subtropical circulation systems were much more similar in May–July of 2016 and 1998.The circulation systems in both years were characterized by a stronger than normal and more westward-extending western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),a weaker than normal East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),and anomalous convergence of moisture flux in the mid and lower reaches of the YRV.These similar circulation anomalies were attributed to the similar tropical SSTA pattern in the preceding seasons,i.e.,the super El Ni?o and strong warming in the tropical Indian Ocean.(4)Significant differences in the circulation pattern were observed in August between the two years.The WPSH broke up in August 2016,with its western part being combined with the continental high and persistently dominating eastern China.The EASM suddenly became stronger,and dry conditions prevailed in the YRV.On the contrary,the EASM was weaker in August 1998 and the"Secondary Meiyu"took place in the YRV.The Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)was extremely active in August 2016 and stayed in western Pacific for 25 days.It triggered frequent tropical cyclone activities and further influenced the significant turning of tropical and subtropical circulations in August2016.In contrast,the MJO was active over the tropical Indian Ocean in August 1998,conducive to the maintenance of a strong WPSH.Alongside the above oceanic factors and atmospheric circulation anomalies,the thermal effect of snow cover over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from the preceding winter to spring in 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998.This may explain the relatively stronger EASM and more abundant precipitation in North China in 2016than those in 1998.

Abrupt Flood–Drought Alternation in Southern China during Summer 2019

We investigated the abrupt alternation from flood to drought in southern China during summer 2019 using multiple datasets.Positive anomalies of precipitation occurred in southern China in the summer of 2019 and the daily precipitation in the south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley showed an abrupt change from flood to drought conditions around mid-July.The highest precipitation in 39 yr was recorded between 1 June and 14 July 2019.The circulation systems affecting this high precipitation included a persistent deepened East Asian trough,the southward location of the western Pacific subtropical high,an intensified East Asian subtropical jet,an anomalous low-level cyclone from southern Japan to southern China,and extremely strong positive vorticity over the Jiangnan area.Completely different atmospheric circulation anomalies from 15 July to 31 August caused continuously high temperatures,below-normal precipitation,and severe drought in Jiangnan area.Further investigations showed that the sudden change in atmospheric circulation around mid-July started in the mid and lower troposphere and was influenced by the northward track of Tropical Cyclone Danas in the northwestern Pacific.