Distribution of winter-spring snow over the Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with summer precipitationin Yangtze River

The distribution of winter-spring snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and its relationship with summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley （MLYRV） during 2003-2013 have been investigated with the moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer （MODIS） Terra data （MOD10A2） and precipitation observations. Results show that snow cover percentage （SCP） remains approximately 20% in winter and spring then tails off to below 5% with warmer temperature and snow melt in summer. The lower and highest percentages present a declining tendency while the middle SCP exhibits an opposite variation. The maximum value appears from the middle of October to March and the minimum emerges from July to August. The annual and winter-spring SCPs present a decreasing tendency. Snow cover is mainly situated in the periphery of the plateau and mountainous regions, and less snow in the interior of the plateau, basin and valley areas in view of snow cover frequency （SCF） over the TP. Whatever annual or winter-spring snow cover, they all have remarkable declining tendency during 2003-2013, and annual snow cover presents a decreasing trend in the interior of the TP and increasing trend in the periphery of the TP. Hie multi-year averaged eight-day SCP is negatively related to mean precipitation in the MLYRV. Spring SCP is negatively related to summer precipitation while winter SCP is positively related to summer precipitation in most parts of the MLYRV. Hence, the influence of winter snow cover on precipitation is much more significant than that in spring on the basis of correlation analysis. The oscillation of SCF from southeast to northwest over the TP corresponds well to the beginning,development and cessation of the rain belt in eastern China.

Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background

Based on the summer precipitation data from the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1922 to 2007,we analyzed the interannual and interdecadal oscillation and probability distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley during the same period,using the wavelet transform and generalized extreme distribution methods.Whereby,we studied the climate background of East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM),Sea Surface Temperature (SST),East Asia telecorrelation circulation,and their relationship with the interannual and interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley.We further compared the difference of interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation and the relevant climate background between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The results show that:1) The intensity change of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is consistent with that of interdecadal oscillation.The summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has been more than normal since the end of the 1990s,and the QBO is very significant.Meanwhile,the probability of occurrence of extreme heavy rainfall increased obviously.2) The interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has a close relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and interdecadal oscillation of EASM.When PDO is in the cold phase and EASM weakens,the summer precipitation will be greater than normal.3) QBO of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is mainly controlled by that of EASM,and it has a relationship with a circulation pattern of "positive-negative-positive" from the high to the low latitudes in East Asia.4) There is interdecadal phase difference in summer precipitation between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,which is mainly related to the intensity and position of West Pacific subtropical high.

The 20―30-day oscillation of the global circulation and heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley

Based on the observational data in summer, the variations of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the daily rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV) were studied by using the non-integer spectrum analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979―2005 were analyzed by principal oscillation pattern analysis (POP) to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of principal ISO patterns of the global circulation. The relationships of these ISO patterns to the rainfall ISO and the heavy precipitation process over LYRV were also discussed. It is found that the rainfall over LYRV in May―August is mainly of periodic oscillations of 10―20, 20―30 and 60―70 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 20―30-day oscillation has a strongly positive correlation with the number of the heavy precipitation process. Two modes (POP1, POP2) are revealed by POP for the 20―30-day oscillation of the global 850 hPa geopotential height. One is a circumglobal telecon-nection wave train in the middle latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SCGT) with an eastward propagation, and the other is the southward propagation pattern in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). The POP modes explain 7.72% and 7.66% of the variance, respectively. These two principal ISO patterns are closely linked to the low frequency rainfall and heavy precipitation process over LYRV, in which the probability for the heavy precipitation process over LYRV is 54.9% and 60.4% for the positive phase of the imaginary part of POP1 and real part of POP2, respectively. Furthermore, the models of the global atmospheric circulation for the 20―30-day oscillation in association with or without the heavy pre-cipitation process over LYRV during the Northern Hemisphere summer are set up by means of the composite analysis method. Most of the heavy precipitation processes over LYRV appear in Phase 4 of SCGT or Phase 6 of TWP. When the positive phases of 20―30-day oscillations for the rainfall over LYRV are associated with (without) the heavy precipitation process, a strong westerly stream appears (disappears) from the Arabian Sea via India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to southern China and LYRV for the global 850 hPa filtered wind field during Phase 4 of SCGT. This situation is favorable (unfavorable) for the forming of the heavy precipitation process over LYRV. Similarly, a strong (weak) western wind belt forms from India through BOB to southern China and LYRV and the subtropical northwestern Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Pacific during Phase 6 of TWP for the cases with (without) the heavy precipitation process. The evolutions of these ISO patterns related to the 20―30-day oscillation are excited by either the interaction of extratropical circulation in both hemispheres or the heat source forcing in Asia monsoon domain and internal interaction of circulation in East Asia. These two global circulation models might therefore provide valuable information for the extended-range forecast of the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the 10―30 days.

The 2016 Summer Floods in China and Associated Physical Mechanisms:A Comparison with 1998

The characteristics of droughts and floods in China during the summers（May–August）of 2016 and 1998 were compared in great detail,together with the associated atmospheric circulations and external-forcing factors.Following results are obtained.（1）The precipitation was mostly above normal in China in summer 2016,with two main rainfall belts located in the Yangtze River valley（YRV）and North China.Compared with 1998,a similar rainfall belt was located over the YRV,with precipitation 100%and more above normal.However,the seasonal processes of Meiyu were different.A typical＂Secondary Meiyu＂occurred in 1998,whereas dry conditions dominated the YRV in2016.（2）During May–July 2016,the Ural high was weaker than normal,but it was stronger than normal in 1998.This difference resulted from fairly different distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies（SSTAs）over the North Atlantic Ocean during the preceding winter and spring of the two years.（3）Nonetheless,tropical and subtropical circulation systems were much more similar in May–July of 2016 and 1998.The circulation systems in both years were characterized by a stronger than normal and more westward-extending western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH）,a weaker than normal East Asian summer monsoon（EASM）,and anomalous convergence of moisture flux in the mid and lower reaches of the YRV.These similar circulation anomalies were attributed to the similar tropical SSTA pattern in the preceding seasons,i.e.,the super El Ni？o and strong warming in the tropical Indian Ocean.（4）Significant differences in the circulation pattern were observed in August between the two years.The WPSH broke up in August 2016,with its western part being combined with the continental high and persistently dominating eastern China.The EASM suddenly became stronger,and dry conditions prevailed in the YRV.On the contrary,the EASM was weaker in August 1998 and the＂Secondary Meiyu＂took place in the YRV.The Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）was extremely active in August 2016 and stayed in western Pacific for 25 days.It triggered frequent tropical cyclone activities and further influenced the significant turning of tropical and subtropical circulations in August2016.In contrast,the MJO was active over the tropical Indian Ocean in August 1998,conducive to the maintenance of a strong WPSH.Alongside the above oceanic factors and atmospheric circulation anomalies,the thermal effect of snow cover over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from the preceding winter to spring in 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998.This may explain the relatively stronger EASM and more abundant precipitation in North China in 2016than those in 1998.