Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast ...Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.展开更多
A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm su...A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.展开更多
This paper analyzes the characteristics of super typhoons （STYs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） from 1965 to 2005 and describes the seasonal variability of STY activity. The relation between STY activity and...This paper analyzes the characteristics of super typhoons （STYs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） from 1965 to 2005 and describes the seasonal variability of STY activity. The relation between STY activity and the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） as well as the possible reason for the influence of the ENSO on STY activity are also investigated. The results showed that about one fifth of the tropical cyclones （TCs） over the WNP could reach the rank of STY. Most STYs appeared from July to November while there was a highest ratio between number of STYs and total number of TCs in November. Most STYs appeared east of the Philippine Sea. In E1 Nino years, affected by sea surface temperature （SST）, monsoon trough and weak vertical wind shear, TC formation locations shifted eastward and there were more STYs than in La Nifia years when the affecting factors changed.展开更多
Multisatellite data is used to analyze the characteristics of three eyewall replacement cycles(ERCs) during the lifetime of Typhoon Muifa(1109).Spiral rainbands evolutions,concentric eyewall(CE) structure modes,CE dur...Multisatellite data is used to analyze the characteristics of three eyewall replacement cycles(ERCs) during the lifetime of Typhoon Muifa(1109).Spiral rainbands evolutions,concentric eyewall(CE) structure modes,CE durations,and intensity changes are discussed in detail.In addition,an ERC evolution model of Typhoon Muifa is given.There are four main findings.(1) The outer spiral rainband joins end to end to form the outer eyewall after it disconnects from the original(inner) eyewall.The inner eyewall weakens as the outer eyewall becomes axisymmetric and is intensified.The contraction of the outer eyewall causes the inner eyewall to dissipate rapidly.Finally,the ERC ends with an annular eyewall or spiral rainbands.(2) Although the CE duration times of Typhoon Muifa's three ERCs covered a large range,the CE structures were all maintained for approximately 5 h from the formation of the axisymmetric outer eyewall to the end of the cycle.(3) There is no obvious precipitation reflectivity in the eye or moat region for the subsidence flow.The convection within the two eyewalls is organized as a radially outward slope with increasing height.(4) Typhoon intensity estimation results based on ADT may not explain the intensity variations associated with ERC correctly,while the typhoon's warm core data retrieved from AMSU-A works well.展开更多
The present work describes the basic features of super typhoon Meranti(2016)by multiple data sources.We mainly focus on the upper ocean response to Meranti using multiplatform satellites,in situ surface drifter and Ar...The present work describes the basic features of super typhoon Meranti(2016)by multiple data sources.We mainly focus on the upper ocean response to Meranti using multiplatform satellites,in situ surface drifter and Argo floats,and compare the results with the widely used idealized wind vortex model and reanalysis datasets.The pre-existing meso-scale eddy provided a favor underlying surface boundary condition and also modulated the upper ocean response to Meranti.Results show that the maximum sea surface cooling was 2.0℃after Meranti.The satellite surface wind failed to capture the core structure of Meranti as the idealized wind vortex model deduced.According to the observation of sea surface drifters,the near-inertial currents were significantly enhanced during the passage of Meranti.The temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats revealed both the mixed-layer extension and subsurface upwelling induced by Meranti.The comparison results show that the sea surface temperature and surface wind in the reanalysis datasets differs from those in remote sensing system.Sea surface cooling is similar in both satellite and in situ observation,and sea surface salinity response has a lower correlation with the precipitation rate.展开更多
The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense ...The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.展开更多
基金supported by four funds,including the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3106102)the Marine Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(Nos.JSZRH YKJ202105,JSZRHYKI202303)+1 种基金the Nantong Social and Livelihood Science and Technology Project(Nos.MS12022009,MS22022082,MS22022083)the Project on Excellent Post-Graduate Dissertation of Hohai University(No.422003470).
文摘Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.
基金This Paper is supported by Zhejiang Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant No2006F12013)
文摘A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.s 40975038 and10735030)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China(973 Program)(Grant Nos.2006CB403603 and 2005CB422301)111 Project(Grant No.B07036)
文摘This paper analyzes the characteristics of super typhoons （STYs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） from 1965 to 2005 and describes the seasonal variability of STY activity. The relation between STY activity and the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） as well as the possible reason for the influence of the ENSO on STY activity are also investigated. The results showed that about one fifth of the tropical cyclones （TCs） over the WNP could reach the rank of STY. Most STYs appeared from July to November while there was a highest ratio between number of STYs and total number of TCs in November. Most STYs appeared east of the Philippine Sea. In E1 Nino years, affected by sea surface temperature （SST）, monsoon trough and weak vertical wind shear, TC formation locations shifted eastward and there were more STYs than in La Nifia years when the affecting factors changed.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405046)National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB452806)China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(GYHY201406010)
文摘Multisatellite data is used to analyze the characteristics of three eyewall replacement cycles(ERCs) during the lifetime of Typhoon Muifa(1109).Spiral rainbands evolutions,concentric eyewall(CE) structure modes,CE durations,and intensity changes are discussed in detail.In addition,an ERC evolution model of Typhoon Muifa is given.There are four main findings.(1) The outer spiral rainband joins end to end to form the outer eyewall after it disconnects from the original(inner) eyewall.The inner eyewall weakens as the outer eyewall becomes axisymmetric and is intensified.The contraction of the outer eyewall causes the inner eyewall to dissipate rapidly.Finally,the ERC ends with an annular eyewall or spiral rainbands.(2) Although the CE duration times of Typhoon Muifa's three ERCs covered a large range,the CE structures were all maintained for approximately 5 h from the formation of the axisymmetric outer eyewall to the end of the cycle.(3) There is no obvious precipitation reflectivity in the eye or moat region for the subsidence flow.The convection within the two eyewalls is organized as a radially outward slope with increasing height.(4) Typhoon intensity estimation results based on ADT may not explain the intensity variations associated with ERC correctly,while the typhoon's warm core data retrieved from AMSU-A works well.
基金The National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-04the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41830533,41876003 and 41621064the China-Sweden(NSFC-STINT)Cooperation and Exchange Project under contract No.41911530149
文摘The present work describes the basic features of super typhoon Meranti(2016)by multiple data sources.We mainly focus on the upper ocean response to Meranti using multiplatform satellites,in situ surface drifter and Argo floats,and compare the results with the widely used idealized wind vortex model and reanalysis datasets.The pre-existing meso-scale eddy provided a favor underlying surface boundary condition and also modulated the upper ocean response to Meranti.Results show that the maximum sea surface cooling was 2.0℃after Meranti.The satellite surface wind failed to capture the core structure of Meranti as the idealized wind vortex model deduced.According to the observation of sea surface drifters,the near-inertial currents were significantly enhanced during the passage of Meranti.The temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats revealed both the mixed-layer extension and subsurface upwelling induced by Meranti.The comparison results show that the sea surface temperature and surface wind in the reanalysis datasets differs from those in remote sensing system.Sea surface cooling is similar in both satellite and in situ observation,and sea surface salinity response has a lower correlation with the precipitation rate.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41620104003)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (Nos. SJKY19_0951, KYCX21_0959)
文摘The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.
文摘利用常规观测资料以及海南省中尺度自动站资料、海口多普勒雷达产品、FY系列卫星云图和NECP 1°×1°再分析资料,分析了2014年第9号超强台风"威马逊"(1409)在海南岛登陆前后其强度和降水特征及其近海急剧加强的原因。结果表明:"威马逊"登陆海南省文昌市翁田镇时强度维持或略有减弱,登陆前其中心附近极大风速超过74 m·s-1,最低海平面气压899.2 h Pa,为1949年建国以来登陆我国大陆最强台风;"威马逊"从7月18日10时到当日15时登陆文昌前的5 h内,其中心附近最大风速增大了5 m·s-1,最低气压下降了20 h Pa,其超强台风量级从18日11时开始维持时间达17 h;"威马逊"眼壁回波造成的海南北部地区强降水具有降水效率高、对流发展不够强盛的混合性降水特征,而其螺旋雨带"列车效应"造成的海南西部地区极值降水则具有典型的对流性降水特征;西太平洋副热带高压、低空急流、西风槽和南亚高压是"威马逊"近海持续加强的主要影响系统;低层辐合与高层辐散、弱的环境风垂直切变和适宜的海面温度、深厚的暖涡是"威马逊"近海急剧加强的原因。
