Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem h...Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.展开更多
Shanghai has entered the depth of the current population aging stage, pure old home, and the empty nest family, lonely elderly people are gradually increasing, the elderly how to provide has become an issue concern in...Shanghai has entered the depth of the current population aging stage, pure old home, and the empty nest family, lonely elderly people are gradually increasing, the elderly how to provide has become an issue concern in public society. However, with the developing of economic and society, the traditional family' s structure and function is gradually being weaken, and the traditional idea of raising children for old age is deeply rooted, elderly people are reluctant to leave their original place. So community family-care is becoming the main endowment way. However, there is a big problem in the quantity and quality of service which is supplied by community, the project that a lot of elderly people really needs, the community does not provide, and some projects are now offered to elderly people, the quality still can not fully to meet the needs of older persons. Those problems are urgently need to be solved. This study aims to know the current status of community family-care in Shanghai, starting from the needs of older persons to allocate the community resources rationally, further improve the quality of the pension service, protect the interests of the elderly.展开更多
Using disordered multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression method,385 copies of questionnaires on farmer are analyzed to explore the relationship between peasant's psychological traits,peasant...Using disordered multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression method,385 copies of questionnaires on farmer are analyzed to explore the relationship between peasant's psychological traits,peasant's cognition on seed technology and perception on supplydemand matching of new variety.Research results show that the vast majority of farmers think that current new variety is at high-level supplydemand balance and the oversupply status,and updating speed of new variety on the market is faster;the farmers preferring risk,seeking innovation and having strong learning and cognition ability may select high-level supply-demand matching state,and the farmers understanding the importance and difference of seed technology tend to choose high-level supply-demand matching situation;the farmers with strong learning and cognition ability can acknowledge the importance and difference of seed technology,while the farmers preferring risk can perceive the difference of seed technology;psychology seeking the innovation and learning and cognition ability affect the farmer's perception on supplydemand matching status of new variety via affecting the farmer's cognition on technical difference.展开更多
A new 300 MVA/1350 MJ motor generator (MG) will be built to feed all of the poloidal field power supplies (PFPS) and auxiliary heating power supplies of the HL-2M tokamak. The MG has a vertical-shaft salient pole ...A new 300 MVA/1350 MJ motor generator (MG) will be built to feed all of the poloidal field power supplies (PFPS) and auxiliary heating power supplies of the HL-2M tokamak. The MG has a vertical-shaft salient pole 6-phase synchronous generator and a coaxial 8500 kW induction motor. The Ohmic heating power supply (OHPS) consisting of 4-quadrant DC pulsed convertor is the one with the highest parameters among the PFPS. Therefore, the match between the generator and the OHPS is very important. The matching study with Matlab/Simulink is described in this paper. The simulation results show that the subtransient reactance of the generator is closely related to the inversion operation of the OHPS. By setting various subtransient reactance in the simulation generator model and considering the cost reduction, the optimized parameters are obtained as xd" = 0.405 p.u. at 100 Hz for the generator. The models built in the simulation can be used as an important tool for studying the dynamic characteristics and the control strategy of other HL-2M PFPSes.展开更多
The important indications for assessing CCHP(combined cooling,heating and power)systems are their supply-demand matching characteristics between the user demand side and the energy supply side.These characteristics ar...The important indications for assessing CCHP(combined cooling,heating and power)systems are their supply-demand matching characteristics between the user demand side and the energy supply side.These characteristics are primarily influenced by different building types and operating strategies.In view of the energy redundancy of the following electric load(FEL)and following thermal load(FTL)operation strategies and the energy deficiency of the following hybrid electric-heating load(FHL)operation strategy,this paper proposes an improved following balanced heat-electrical load(IFBL)operation strategy based on the following balanced heat-electrical load(FBL)operation strategy.Based on the energy utilization rate as the objective function,this paper optimizes the installed capacity of CCHP systems in different buildings and proposes an energy factor for evaluating the supply-demand matching characteristics of the system.The results show that the energy utilization rate and energy factor of the system under IFBL are optimal relative to the other operation strategies.Secondly,the hotel building has the highest energy utilization rate and the lowest energy factor;on the contrary,the office building has the lowest energy utilization rate and the highest energy factor.Finally,the analysis of supply-demand matching for different building types under multiple operating strategies shows that the hospital and hotel systems exhibit optimal supply-demand matching performance under the IFBL strategy,with values of 0.945 and 0.938,respectively;on the contrary,the office system has an optimal supply-demand matching of 0.935 under the FEL strategy.Under the FTL strategy,the systems of all three buildings exhibit poor matching performance.展开更多
This study was done for one of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (refiner) depot supplied by a multi-product (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) pipeline. Distribution/loading facility designed for a total o...This study was done for one of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (refiner) depot supplied by a multi-product (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) pipeline. Distribution/loading facility designed for a total of six arms: two each for gasoline, kerosene and diesel (or 33.33% for each product) whereas gasoline storage capacity is 55%, diesel, 33%, kerosene 11%, and slops, 1% of the total depot capacity. The design supply to distribution chain capacity ratio showed a mismatch, which in actual operation becomes 2:1. The above design created ullage problem at sustained supplies, gross under utilization of supply chain infrastructures and poor operational performance. After a technical evaluation, a section of the depot storage to loading pipeline network was re-designed and modified to enable products supply capacity to match loading and minimize storage. Hence, the gasoline loading became 66.67%, kerosene and diesel, each of 16.67%, increasing the actual supply to distribution chain capacity ratio from 2:1 to 2:2 (and when required, can be maximized to 2:3) thereby correcting the apparent mismatch between the supply and distribution chain capacities. The modification has enabled the refiner to increase depot and upstream supply chain utilization展开更多
Using literature,questionnaires,interviews,and mathematical statistics to investigate the current situation of sports public services in the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-city Economic Circle.The results show that there are ...Using literature,questionnaires,interviews,and mathematical statistics to investigate the current situation of sports public services in the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-city Economic Circle.The results show that there are some problems in Chengdu-Chongqing sports public services,such as big difference in the development level of supply between urban and rural areas,low supply level,low efficiency,supply mechanism defect,lack of social sports instructors,an outstanding contradiction between the quality of sports public service and residents’demand.To address the problems,government departments should accelerate the transformation of government functions,improve the relevant regulations and systems,increase the investment in sports public services,improve the quality of supply,cultivate the backbone team,integrate resources,and combine the national characteristics with regional characteristics,take into account the personalized needs of the residents,combine the sports public services with intelligence,and build the service system of“Internet+Fitness.”展开更多
A supply chain resilience model is established based on the biological cellular resilience theory to analyze the impact of the supplier relationship on supply chain resilience. A scenario where the market demand is ch...A supply chain resilience model is established based on the biological cellular resilience theory to analyze the impact of the supplier relationship on supply chain resilience. A scenario where the market demand is changed suddenly by some undesired events is considered. The results reveal that enhancing collaboration with a more resilient supplier can significantly improve supply chain resilience and reduce supply chain losses. It is also found that enhancing the supplier relationship can significantly benefit supply chain resilience if the collaborative intensity is relatively low, and it has less effect if supply chain members have already collaborated closely. Thus, enhancing the supplier relationship to a limited intensity is a relatively effective and economic method to strengthen supply chain resilience.展开更多
A single product closed-loop supply chain that satisfies an uncertain market demand with original and remanufactured products is considered.The yield of the recovery process is random and depends on the acquisition pr...A single product closed-loop supply chain that satisfies an uncertain market demand with original and remanufactured products is considered.The yield of the recovery process is random and depends on the acquisition price offered for the end-of-life products.In such a stochastic setting,a firm needs to make production and procurement decisions so that the total expected profit is maximized.Both centralized and decentralized models are established depending on the party collecting the returns.The optimal acquisition price and production quantities of original and remanufactured products are determined for the firm.The contracts to coordinate the decentralized systems are chosen and the optimal contract parameters are determined.A computational experiment is given to show the effects of recovery parameters on the system performance.Results show that the recovery parameters have a high impact on the profitability of the manufacturer in the centralized model and on that of the collection agency in the decentralized model.展开更多
Using the data of wheat varieties with year-sown area of 6 666.7 hm^2 or more from 1982 to 2006 in China, the evolution of wheat varieties was studied from both supply and demand. Results showed that although various ...Using the data of wheat varieties with year-sown area of 6 666.7 hm^2 or more from 1982 to 2006 in China, the evolution of wheat varieties was studied from both supply and demand. Results showed that although various characters of wheat varieties grown by peasants in production were improved obviously in China, the demand for variety yield was still the main demand by peasants; there was no significant difference between the supply and demand of crude protein content by peasants; the demand for disease resistance has been lower than the supply recently; the demand for full growth stage at every stage was less than the supply; and while there was a larger demand for plant height by peasants.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study the effects of water supply and consumption on water saving and drought resistance. [Method] Controlling field experiment was conducted to explore water balance between supply and dema...[Objective] The aim was to study the effects of water supply and consumption on water saving and drought resistance. [Method] Controlling field experiment was conducted to explore water balance between supply and demand in paddy fields in hilly regions in Sichuan Province. [Result] Rainfall in hilly areas was 3 611.10 m3/hm2; water for irrigation was 6 299.25 m3/hm2; evapotranspiration of rice was 6 424.95 m3/hm2; deep leakage was 2 459.55 m3/hm2; overflowing amount was 1 026.00 m3/hm2. In addition, water consumption totaled 8 884.50 m3/hm2 during rice production; water use was 0.99 kg/m3 and use efficiency of irrigated water was 1.40 kg/m3. [Conclusion] Water supply and consumption should be further organized to save water and fight against drought in hilly areas in Sichuan Province.展开更多
[Objective] The purpose of this study is to estimate water supply and demand, which can provide a basis for how to allocate rationally water resources in Hotan Oasis. [Method] The water supply and demand in Hotan Oasi...[Objective] The purpose of this study is to estimate water supply and demand, which can provide a basis for how to allocate rationally water resources in Hotan Oasis. [Method] The water supply and demand in Hotan Oasis in the next15 years were calculated according to water-soil balance. [Result] When the runoff of Hotan River is at a probability of 50%(P=50 for short), the total water resource is 50.57×10^8m^3, and there is only 33.13×10^8m^3available for social and economics,but there would be a need of 33.44×10^8and 36.06×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 1.31 ×10^8and 2.93 ×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030 respectively. When P =75,the total water resource is 44.30×10^8m^3, there is only 29.39×10^8m^3water available for social and economics. However, there would be a need of 31.43 ×10^8and33.11×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 2.04×10^8and 3.72×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030, respectively. [Conclusion] The problem of water shortage would be serious over the next 15 years, and the fragile ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically with the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws. Hence, the effective policies and measures should be taken timely to prohibit reclamation and to cope with ongoing water shortage, based on the water supply and demand estimation under the background of climate change.展开更多
Along with the coming of the low-carbon era, people have paid more and more attention to the natural environment and eco-tourism will embrace a huge development. From the perspectives of the market relationship of sup...Along with the coming of the low-carbon era, people have paid more and more attention to the natural environment and eco-tourism will embrace a huge development. From the perspectives of the market relationship of supply-demand in economics and of field competition in physics, this paper has discussed upon the present status of the spatial structure of eco-tourism, and analyzed the relationship between supply-demand and field, in order to clarify the direction for the balance between supply and demand in the field and to guide eco-tourism to the way of sustainable development.展开更多
Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resourc...Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world's and China's supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources (especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world's six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons (Gt), 5.0-6.0 million tons (Mt), 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China's compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores (crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores (crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite (primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China's demand for iron ores (crude steel), bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world's demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China's accumulative demand for iron ores (crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt (13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt (0.616 Gt) of bauxite (primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world's YOY (YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China's bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary (mine) mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of (mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of (mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world's predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China's crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap (iron ores) is 3.27 Gt (5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China's bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China's iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. (1) The demand peak of China's crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. (2) The supply-demand contradiction of China's bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. (3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity". (4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. (5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. (6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.展开更多
Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance o...Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year (2003), the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.展开更多
Contract is a common and effective mechanism for supply chain coordination,which has been studied extensively in recent years.For a supply chain network model,contracts can be used to coordinate it because it is too i...Contract is a common and effective mechanism for supply chain coordination,which has been studied extensively in recent years.For a supply chain network model,contracts can be used to coordinate it because it is too ideal to obtain the network equilibrium state in practical market competition.In order to achieve equilibrium,we introduce revenue sharing contract into a supply chain network equilibrium model with random demand in this paper.Then,we investigate the influence on this network equilibrium state from demand disruptions caused by unexpected emergencies.When demand disruptions happen,the supply chain network equilibrium state will be broken and change to a new one,so the decision makers need to adjust the contract parameters to achieve the new coordinated state through bargaining.Finally,a numerical example with a sudden demand increase as a result of emergent event is provided for illustrative purposes.展开更多
The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development inNorthwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65. 94 x 10~8m^3 of water resourcesavailable in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consump...The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development inNorthwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65. 94 x 10~8m^3 of water resourcesavailable in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consumption in development and utilization is 43. 33x 10~8m^3. Water supply and demand reach a balance on the recent level of production, but loss ofevaporation and evapotranspiration is as much as 25. 69 x 1010~8m^3. So net use efficiency of waterresources is 59% Based on analyzing balance between water and land considering ecologicalenvironment at present, there exists the serious water shortage in the Shiyang River system whereirrigation lands have overloaded. There is a comparative balance between supply and demand of waterresource in the Heihe River system; and the Sule River system has some surplus water to extendirrigation land. Use of agriculture water accounts for 83. 3% and ecological forest and grass for 6.9% . The Hexi Corridor still has a great potential for water saving in agriculture production.Water-saving efficiency of irrigation is about 10% by using such traditional technologies as furrowand border-dike irrigation and small check irrigation, and water-saving with plastic film cover andtechniques of advanced sprinkler and drip/micro irrigation etc. can save more than 60% of irrigatedwater. Incremental irrigation area for water-saving potential in the Hexi Corridor has beenestimated as 56% - 197% to original irrigation area. So the second water sources can be developedfrom water saving agriculture in the Hexi Corridor under Development of the Western Part of China inlarge scale. This potential can be realized step by step through developing the water-savingmeasures, improving the ecological condition of oasis agriculture, and optimizing allocation ofwater resources in three river systems.展开更多
This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance betw...This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance between supply and demand, and optimize the logistics scheme. The model takes minimum logistics cost and resource adjustment cost as the objective function, and takes supply and demand capacity, transportation capacity, mass balance, and resource adjustment rules as constraints.Three adjustment rules are considered in the model, including resource adjustment within oil suppliers,within oil consumers, and between oil consumers. The model is tested on a large-scale primary logistics of a state-owned petroleum enterprise, involving 37 affiliated refineries, 31 procurement departments,286 market depots and dedicated consumers. After the unified optimization, the supply and demand imbalance is eased by 97% and the total cost is saved by 7%, which proves the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model.展开更多
The relationship between the supply and demand for ecosystem services(ESs)is a key issue for the rational allocation of natural resources and optimisation of sustainable development capacity.This paper investigateed t...The relationship between the supply and demand for ecosystem services(ESs)is a key issue for the rational allocation of natural resources and optimisation of sustainable development capacity.This paper investigateed the dynamic evolution features of supply and demand of four ESs in Lanzhou of China,namely,water supply,food supply,carbon fixation and soil retention services.The crosssectional data of 2005 and 2017 were used for calculating ESs value and its supply and demand through ArcGIS software,InVEST model,elastic coefficient model and coupling coordination model.Results showed that:1)from 2005 to 2017,the supply of water supply services increased,the demand of soil retention services decreased,and the supply and demand of food supply and carbon fixation services increased.The high-value areas of service supply were mainly distributed in the rocky mountain areas in the southeast and northwest with high vegetation coverage,while the high-value areas of demand were mainly distributed in the urban areas and surrounding areas with high population density.2)There were five different types of coupling relations.Water supply service was dominated by a negative coupling type D,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Negative coupling type C was the main type of food supply and carbon fixation services,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.All three services were supplemented by a positive coupling type A,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Soil retention service generally exhibits a positive coupling type B,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.3)Over the past 12 yr,the coordination degree of supply and demand of water supply,food supply and soil retention services decreased,and the coordination degree of carbon fixation service increased.Various types of ES had a low degree of coupling and coordination,showing different characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution.The areas with imbalanced ESs supply and demand were mainly distributed in urban areas dominated by construction land.The research results are valuable to the optimisation of urban and rural ecological environments and the sustainable development of territory space under the framework of ecological civilisation,including similar ecologically vulnerable areas in other developing countries.展开更多
A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there a...A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there are strong complementarities between two models. Firstly, the rough set was used to reduce the condition attributes, then to eliminate the attributes that were redundant for the forecast, Secondly, it adopted the minimum condition attributes obtained by reduction and the corresponding original data to re-form a new training sample, which only kept the important attributes affecting the forecast accuracy. Finally, it studied and trained the SVM with the training samples after reduction, inputted the test samples re-formed by the minimum condition attributes and the corresponding original data, and then got the mapping relationship model between condition attributes and forecast variables after testing it. This model was used to forecast the power supply and demand. The results show that the average absolute error rate of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are 14.21% and 13.23%, respectively, which indicates that the RS-SVM forecast model has a higher degree of accuracy.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 42171258,41877084)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(grant number 2021JJ30448)。
文摘Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.
文摘Shanghai has entered the depth of the current population aging stage, pure old home, and the empty nest family, lonely elderly people are gradually increasing, the elderly how to provide has become an issue concern in public society. However, with the developing of economic and society, the traditional family' s structure and function is gradually being weaken, and the traditional idea of raising children for old age is deeply rooted, elderly people are reluctant to leave their original place. So community family-care is becoming the main endowment way. However, there is a big problem in the quantity and quality of service which is supplied by community, the project that a lot of elderly people really needs, the community does not provide, and some projects are now offered to elderly people, the quality still can not fully to meet the needs of older persons. Those problems are urgently need to be solved. This study aims to know the current status of community family-care in Shanghai, starting from the needs of older persons to allocate the community resources rationally, further improve the quality of the pension service, protect the interests of the elderly.
文摘Using disordered multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression method,385 copies of questionnaires on farmer are analyzed to explore the relationship between peasant's psychological traits,peasant's cognition on seed technology and perception on supplydemand matching of new variety.Research results show that the vast majority of farmers think that current new variety is at high-level supplydemand balance and the oversupply status,and updating speed of new variety on the market is faster;the farmers preferring risk,seeking innovation and having strong learning and cognition ability may select high-level supply-demand matching state,and the farmers understanding the importance and difference of seed technology tend to choose high-level supply-demand matching situation;the farmers with strong learning and cognition ability can acknowledge the importance and difference of seed technology,while the farmers preferring risk can perceive the difference of seed technology;psychology seeking the innovation and learning and cognition ability affect the farmer's perception on supplydemand matching status of new variety via affecting the farmer's cognition on technical difference.
文摘A new 300 MVA/1350 MJ motor generator (MG) will be built to feed all of the poloidal field power supplies (PFPS) and auxiliary heating power supplies of the HL-2M tokamak. The MG has a vertical-shaft salient pole 6-phase synchronous generator and a coaxial 8500 kW induction motor. The Ohmic heating power supply (OHPS) consisting of 4-quadrant DC pulsed convertor is the one with the highest parameters among the PFPS. Therefore, the match between the generator and the OHPS is very important. The matching study with Matlab/Simulink is described in this paper. The simulation results show that the subtransient reactance of the generator is closely related to the inversion operation of the OHPS. By setting various subtransient reactance in the simulation generator model and considering the cost reduction, the optimized parameters are obtained as xd" = 0.405 p.u. at 100 Hz for the generator. The models built in the simulation can be used as an important tool for studying the dynamic characteristics and the control strategy of other HL-2M PFPSes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51966009)the Key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(NO.20YF8GA057).
文摘The important indications for assessing CCHP(combined cooling,heating and power)systems are their supply-demand matching characteristics between the user demand side and the energy supply side.These characteristics are primarily influenced by different building types and operating strategies.In view of the energy redundancy of the following electric load(FEL)and following thermal load(FTL)operation strategies and the energy deficiency of the following hybrid electric-heating load(FHL)operation strategy,this paper proposes an improved following balanced heat-electrical load(IFBL)operation strategy based on the following balanced heat-electrical load(FBL)operation strategy.Based on the energy utilization rate as the objective function,this paper optimizes the installed capacity of CCHP systems in different buildings and proposes an energy factor for evaluating the supply-demand matching characteristics of the system.The results show that the energy utilization rate and energy factor of the system under IFBL are optimal relative to the other operation strategies.Secondly,the hotel building has the highest energy utilization rate and the lowest energy factor;on the contrary,the office building has the lowest energy utilization rate and the highest energy factor.Finally,the analysis of supply-demand matching for different building types under multiple operating strategies shows that the hospital and hotel systems exhibit optimal supply-demand matching performance under the IFBL strategy,with values of 0.945 and 0.938,respectively;on the contrary,the office system has an optimal supply-demand matching of 0.935 under the FEL strategy.Under the FTL strategy,the systems of all three buildings exhibit poor matching performance.
文摘This study was done for one of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (refiner) depot supplied by a multi-product (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) pipeline. Distribution/loading facility designed for a total of six arms: two each for gasoline, kerosene and diesel (or 33.33% for each product) whereas gasoline storage capacity is 55%, diesel, 33%, kerosene 11%, and slops, 1% of the total depot capacity. The design supply to distribution chain capacity ratio showed a mismatch, which in actual operation becomes 2:1. The above design created ullage problem at sustained supplies, gross under utilization of supply chain infrastructures and poor operational performance. After a technical evaluation, a section of the depot storage to loading pipeline network was re-designed and modified to enable products supply capacity to match loading and minimize storage. Hence, the gasoline loading became 66.67%, kerosene and diesel, each of 16.67%, increasing the actual supply to distribution chain capacity ratio from 2:1 to 2:2 (and when required, can be maximized to 2:3) thereby correcting the apparent mismatch between the supply and distribution chain capacities. The modification has enabled the refiner to increase depot and upstream supply chain utilization
文摘Using literature,questionnaires,interviews,and mathematical statistics to investigate the current situation of sports public services in the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-city Economic Circle.The results show that there are some problems in Chengdu-Chongqing sports public services,such as big difference in the development level of supply between urban and rural areas,low supply level,low efficiency,supply mechanism defect,lack of social sports instructors,an outstanding contradiction between the quality of sports public service and residents’demand.To address the problems,government departments should accelerate the transformation of government functions,improve the relevant regulations and systems,increase the investment in sports public services,improve the quality of supply,cultivate the backbone team,integrate resources,and combine the national characteristics with regional characteristics,take into account the personalized needs of the residents,combine the sports public services with intelligence,and build the service system of“Internet+Fitness.”
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71171050,71390333)the National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2013BAD19B05)+1 种基金the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXZZ12_0107)the Scientific Research Foundation of Graduate School of Southeast University(No.YBJJ1237)
文摘A supply chain resilience model is established based on the biological cellular resilience theory to analyze the impact of the supplier relationship on supply chain resilience. A scenario where the market demand is changed suddenly by some undesired events is considered. The results reveal that enhancing collaboration with a more resilient supplier can significantly improve supply chain resilience and reduce supply chain losses. It is also found that enhancing the supplier relationship can significantly benefit supply chain resilience if the collaborative intensity is relatively low, and it has less effect if supply chain members have already collaborated closely. Thus, enhancing the supplier relationship to a limited intensity is a relatively effective and economic method to strengthen supply chain resilience.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.70772059)
文摘A single product closed-loop supply chain that satisfies an uncertain market demand with original and remanufactured products is considered.The yield of the recovery process is random and depends on the acquisition price offered for the end-of-life products.In such a stochastic setting,a firm needs to make production and procurement decisions so that the total expected profit is maximized.Both centralized and decentralized models are established depending on the party collecting the returns.The optimal acquisition price and production quantities of original and remanufactured products are determined for the firm.The contracts to coordinate the decentralized systems are chosen and the optimal contract parameters are determined.A computational experiment is given to show the effects of recovery parameters on the system performance.Results show that the recovery parameters have a high impact on the profitability of the manufacturer in the centralized model and on that of the collection agency in the decentralized model.
文摘Using the data of wheat varieties with year-sown area of 6 666.7 hm^2 or more from 1982 to 2006 in China, the evolution of wheat varieties was studied from both supply and demand. Results showed that although various characters of wheat varieties grown by peasants in production were improved obviously in China, the demand for variety yield was still the main demand by peasants; there was no significant difference between the supply and demand of crude protein content by peasants; the demand for disease resistance has been lower than the supply recently; the demand for full growth stage at every stage was less than the supply; and while there was a larger demand for plant height by peasants.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the effects of water supply and consumption on water saving and drought resistance. [Method] Controlling field experiment was conducted to explore water balance between supply and demand in paddy fields in hilly regions in Sichuan Province. [Result] Rainfall in hilly areas was 3 611.10 m3/hm2; water for irrigation was 6 299.25 m3/hm2; evapotranspiration of rice was 6 424.95 m3/hm2; deep leakage was 2 459.55 m3/hm2; overflowing amount was 1 026.00 m3/hm2. In addition, water consumption totaled 8 884.50 m3/hm2 during rice production; water use was 0.99 kg/m3 and use efficiency of irrigated water was 1.40 kg/m3. [Conclusion] Water supply and consumption should be further organized to save water and fight against drought in hilly areas in Sichuan Province.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2010CB955905)the Fund of Chengde Municipal Finance Bureau(CZ2013004)~~
文摘[Objective] The purpose of this study is to estimate water supply and demand, which can provide a basis for how to allocate rationally water resources in Hotan Oasis. [Method] The water supply and demand in Hotan Oasis in the next15 years were calculated according to water-soil balance. [Result] When the runoff of Hotan River is at a probability of 50%(P=50 for short), the total water resource is 50.57×10^8m^3, and there is only 33.13×10^8m^3available for social and economics,but there would be a need of 33.44×10^8and 36.06×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 1.31 ×10^8and 2.93 ×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030 respectively. When P =75,the total water resource is 44.30×10^8m^3, there is only 29.39×10^8m^3water available for social and economics. However, there would be a need of 31.43 ×10^8and33.11×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 2.04×10^8and 3.72×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030, respectively. [Conclusion] The problem of water shortage would be serious over the next 15 years, and the fragile ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically with the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws. Hence, the effective policies and measures should be taken timely to prohibit reclamation and to cope with ongoing water shortage, based on the water supply and demand estimation under the background of climate change.
文摘Along with the coming of the low-carbon era, people have paid more and more attention to the natural environment and eco-tourism will embrace a huge development. From the perspectives of the market relationship of supply-demand in economics and of field competition in physics, this paper has discussed upon the present status of the spatial structure of eco-tourism, and analyzed the relationship between supply-demand and field, in order to clarify the direction for the balance between supply and demand in the field and to guide eco-tourism to the way of sustainable development.
基金supported by the China geological survey subproject of Dynamic Track and Evaluation of the Guarantee Degree of the Main Mineral Resources in China(No.121201103000150112,N1618-8)
文摘Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world's and China's supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources (especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world's six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons (Gt), 5.0-6.0 million tons (Mt), 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China's compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores (crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores (crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite (primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China's demand for iron ores (crude steel), bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world's demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China's accumulative demand for iron ores (crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt (13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt (0.616 Gt) of bauxite (primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world's YOY (YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China's bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary (mine) mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of (mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of (mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world's predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China's crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap (iron ores) is 3.27 Gt (5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China's bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China's iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. (1) The demand peak of China's crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. (2) The supply-demand contradiction of China's bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. (3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity". (4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. (5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. (6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.
基金This work was supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program from the Cold and Add Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CACX2003102)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX 1 - 10-03-01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40401012).
文摘Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year (2003), the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (No. 2006BAH02A06)"333 Engineering"Project of Jiangsu Province
文摘Contract is a common and effective mechanism for supply chain coordination,which has been studied extensively in recent years.For a supply chain network model,contracts can be used to coordinate it because it is too ideal to obtain the network equilibrium state in practical market competition.In order to achieve equilibrium,we introduce revenue sharing contract into a supply chain network equilibrium model with random demand in this paper.Then,we investigate the influence on this network equilibrium state from demand disruptions caused by unexpected emergencies.When demand disruptions happen,the supply chain network equilibrium state will be broken and change to a new one,so the decision makers need to adjust the contract parameters to achieve the new coordinated state through bargaining.Finally,a numerical example with a sudden demand increase as a result of emergent event is provided for illustrative purposes.
文摘The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development inNorthwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65. 94 x 10~8m^3 of water resourcesavailable in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consumption in development and utilization is 43. 33x 10~8m^3. Water supply and demand reach a balance on the recent level of production, but loss ofevaporation and evapotranspiration is as much as 25. 69 x 1010~8m^3. So net use efficiency of waterresources is 59% Based on analyzing balance between water and land considering ecologicalenvironment at present, there exists the serious water shortage in the Shiyang River system whereirrigation lands have overloaded. There is a comparative balance between supply and demand of waterresource in the Heihe River system; and the Sule River system has some surplus water to extendirrigation land. Use of agriculture water accounts for 83. 3% and ecological forest and grass for 6.9% . The Hexi Corridor still has a great potential for water saving in agriculture production.Water-saving efficiency of irrigation is about 10% by using such traditional technologies as furrowand border-dike irrigation and small check irrigation, and water-saving with plastic film cover andtechniques of advanced sprinkler and drip/micro irrigation etc. can save more than 60% of irrigatedwater. Incremental irrigation area for water-saving potential in the Hexi Corridor has beenestimated as 56% - 197% to original irrigation area. So the second water sources can be developedfrom water saving agriculture in the Hexi Corridor under Development of the Western Part of China inlarge scale. This potential can be realized step by step through developing the water-savingmeasures, improving the ecological condition of oasis agriculture, and optimizing allocation ofwater resources in three river systems.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51874325)the Science Foundation of China University of PetroleumBeijing (2462021BJRC009)。
文摘This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance between supply and demand, and optimize the logistics scheme. The model takes minimum logistics cost and resource adjustment cost as the objective function, and takes supply and demand capacity, transportation capacity, mass balance, and resource adjustment rules as constraints.Three adjustment rules are considered in the model, including resource adjustment within oil suppliers,within oil consumers, and between oil consumers. The model is tested on a large-scale primary logistics of a state-owned petroleum enterprise, involving 37 affiliated refineries, 31 procurement departments,286 market depots and dedicated consumers. After the unified optimization, the supply and demand imbalance is eased by 97% and the total cost is saved by 7%, which proves the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41861034)。
文摘The relationship between the supply and demand for ecosystem services(ESs)is a key issue for the rational allocation of natural resources and optimisation of sustainable development capacity.This paper investigateed the dynamic evolution features of supply and demand of four ESs in Lanzhou of China,namely,water supply,food supply,carbon fixation and soil retention services.The crosssectional data of 2005 and 2017 were used for calculating ESs value and its supply and demand through ArcGIS software,InVEST model,elastic coefficient model and coupling coordination model.Results showed that:1)from 2005 to 2017,the supply of water supply services increased,the demand of soil retention services decreased,and the supply and demand of food supply and carbon fixation services increased.The high-value areas of service supply were mainly distributed in the rocky mountain areas in the southeast and northwest with high vegetation coverage,while the high-value areas of demand were mainly distributed in the urban areas and surrounding areas with high population density.2)There were five different types of coupling relations.Water supply service was dominated by a negative coupling type D,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Negative coupling type C was the main type of food supply and carbon fixation services,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.All three services were supplemented by a positive coupling type A,which means that the increase in demand for ESs has had a positive response on the supply of ESs.Soil retention service generally exhibits a positive coupling type B,which means that the decrease in demand for ESs has had a negative response on the supply of ESs.3)Over the past 12 yr,the coordination degree of supply and demand of water supply,food supply and soil retention services decreased,and the coordination degree of carbon fixation service increased.Various types of ES had a low degree of coupling and coordination,showing different characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution.The areas with imbalanced ESs supply and demand were mainly distributed in urban areas dominated by construction land.The research results are valuable to the optimisation of urban and rural ecological environments and the sustainable development of territory space under the framework of ecological civilisation,including similar ecologically vulnerable areas in other developing countries.
基金Project(70901025) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there are strong complementarities between two models. Firstly, the rough set was used to reduce the condition attributes, then to eliminate the attributes that were redundant for the forecast, Secondly, it adopted the minimum condition attributes obtained by reduction and the corresponding original data to re-form a new training sample, which only kept the important attributes affecting the forecast accuracy. Finally, it studied and trained the SVM with the training samples after reduction, inputted the test samples re-formed by the minimum condition attributes and the corresponding original data, and then got the mapping relationship model between condition attributes and forecast variables after testing it. This model was used to forecast the power supply and demand. The results show that the average absolute error rate of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are 14.21% and 13.23%, respectively, which indicates that the RS-SVM forecast model has a higher degree of accuracy.