Disaster Reduction Decision Support System Against Debris Flows and Landslides Along Highway in Mountainous Area

Highways in mountainous areas are easy to be damaged by such natural disasters as debris flows and landslides and disaster reduction decision support system (DRDSS) is one of the important means to mitigate these disasters. Guided by the theories and technologies of debris flow and landslide reduction and supported by geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing and database techniques, a DRDSS against debris flow and landslide along highways in mountainous areas has been established on the basis of such principles as pertinence, systematicness, effectiveness, easy to use, open and expandability. The system consists of database, disaster analysis models and decisions on reduction of debris flows and landslides, mainly functioning to zone disaster dangerous degree, analyze debris flow activity, simulate debris flow deposition and diffusion, analyze landslide stability, select optimal highway renovation scheme and plan disaster prevention and control engineering. This system has been applied successfully to the debris flow and landslide treatment works along Palongzangbu Section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway.

Technologies of oxygen supply for life support during the development of mineral resources in high altitude areas

In order to fulfill the needs of life-support oxygen supply during the development of plateau mineral resources,four oxygen supply patterns suitable for the plateau mine in specific environment were developed:tunnel face diffusive oxygen supply,tunnel oxygen-bar car,carried oxygen cylinder and portable oxygen generator. Through the study of safety oxygen supply experiments in low- pressure plateau areas,the mathematical relationship between maximum integration of secure oxygen volume and altitude has been achieved. Oxygen supply safety control should follow this relationship in plateau mines during the time of executing tunnel face or in room air diffusive oxygen supply. The application results of life-support oxygen supplement technologies in the development of mineral resources in high altitude areas show that the oxygen supply for tunneling miners in plateau mines can not only effectively enhance the oxygen saturation,reduce the pulse rate and the breath rate per minute,but also improve various symptoms caused by altitude hypoxia and high-intensity physical labor.

Comparison of LR,5-CV SVM,GA SVM,and PSO SVM for landslide susceptibility assessment in Tibetan Plateau area,China

The applicability of statistics-based landslide susceptibility assessment methods is affected by the number of historical landslides.Previous studies have proposed support vector machine(SVM)as a small-sample learning method.However,those studies demonstrated that different parameters can affect model performance.We optimized the SVM and obtained models as 5-fold cross validation(5-CV)SVM,genetic algorithm(GA)SVM,and particle swarm optimization(PSO)SVM.This study compared the prediction performances of logistic regression(LR),5-CV SVM,GA SVM,and PSO SVM on landslide susceptibility mapping,to explore the spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility in the study area in Tibetan Plateau,China.A geospatial database was established based on 392 historical landslides and 392 non-landslides in the study area.We used 11 influencing factors of altitude,slope,aspect,curvature,lithology,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),distance to road,distance to river,distance to fault,peak ground acceleration(PGA),and rainfall to construct an influencing factor evaluation system.To evaluate the models,four susceptibility maps were compared via receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve and the results showed that prediction rates for the models are 84%(LR),87%(5-CV SVM),85%(GA SVM),and 90%(PSO SVM).We also used precision,recall,F1-score and accuracy to assess the quality performance of these models.The results showed that the PSO SVM had greater potential for future implementation in the Tibetan Plateau area because of its superior performance in the landslide susceptibility assessment.

Poverty Alleviation in the Poor Mountainous Areas of Western China by Supporting Industry: A Case Study of Xundian Hui and Yi Autonomous County in Yunnan Province

Poverty alleviation by supporting industry is a key measure to promote the poverty alleviation of relocated households. Taking Xundian County, the first county in Yunnan Province that has been lifted out of poverty, as an research case, this article analyzes and summarizes the industry-supporting poverty alleviation achievements and successful experience of two typical relocation areas (Shanhou Village and Eyang Village) in Xundian County. Practice has shown that the key to industry-supporting poverty alleviation lies in targetedness to strengthen the participation of poor farmers in industrial development. The interests of poverty alleviation entities should be linked by market mechanism to establish a benign interaction between all parties for win-win situation, thereby effectively guaranteeing the long-term and healthy development of poverty alleviation by supporting industry.

Distribution area demarcation for logistic centers under geographical information system decision support system

Demarcating distribution area of goods is often guided by the rule of thumb by business proprietors. However, this method seems to be unsuitable when the demand points increase to a certain large extent. The present work attempted to convert the problem of distribution area demarcation into a localized problem of warehouseing and networking, and tried to establish district-based planning mode based on location based heuristic (LBH). Two methods were used in this study: 1) the manual method to construct the mathematical model and conduct simulation; 2) the automatic method using TransCAD software of geographical information system (GIS) for simulation. By comparing the effects of the two methods, the research provides theoretical support for business proprietors to demarcate the distribution area rationally with the application of GIS system. The results show that GIS has very good graphics construction function to replace complex text, and the automatic demarcating mode with human-machine interaction provides a good business decision-making support.

Analysis on Supported Employment of People with Disabilities in Southwest China's Minority Areas

Employment of people with disabilities in Southwest China’s ethnic minority areas is characterized by relatively high pressure, a poor environment and single form. Supported employment can solve the problems faced by people with disabilities in the ethnic minority areas of Southwest China. Therefore, it is of practical significance to promote such a new form of employment. But in promoting the development of supported employment, it is necessary to strengthen its local top-level design and to establish corresponding legal and policy systems so as to give full play to the positive role of the government and establish a strong support system.

基于广域信息处理的配电网故障隔离技术研究

针对分布式电源并入配电网后,传统算法进行故障检测时存在定位准确度偏低、反应速度较慢的问题,文中基于广域信息处理技术提出了一种配电网故障隔离方法。该方法采用模态分解算法将故障复杂信号分解为多种类基础小信号,使用支持向量机对这些小信号进行数据分类。但由于传统支持向量机的收敛速度较慢,因此通过引入粒子群算法对其参数加以优化,从而提升模型的运算速度。实验结果表明,在加入分布式电源的电网中,所提算法的故障定位准确率为96.7%,平均运行时间则为43.9 s,且这两项参数在对比算法中均为最优。由此证明,该算法可应用于实际工程中,为配电网故障隔离提供技术支撑。

山区铁路隧道工程资源环境影响效应评估研究

山区地质复杂、环境敏感、生态脆弱,致使铁路隧道建设难度大,且在资源节约、环境保护等方面面临较高要求。绿色设计作为绿色建设的先行环节,对减少隧道建设对资源环境的扰动作用,达到资源节约、环境友好的目的起关键引领作用。为定量评估山区铁路隧道工程的资源环境影响效应、衡量隧道设计的绿色程度,提出一种山区铁路隧道工程资源环境影响效应分析方法。首先,基于“驱动力-状态-响应”模型(Driving force-State-Response,DSR),以隧道设计参数为驱动力指标、资源环境状况为状态指标、隧道设计措施为响应指标,构建山区铁路隧道工程资源环境影响效应评估指标体系,并建立各指标分级标准;其次,运用一种具有自学习自调整能力的支持向量回归模型(Support Vector Regression,SVR)对隧道工程的资源环境影响效应进行评估;再次,以驱动力指标和响应指标为分析对象,运用考虑指标间关联关系及叠加效应的敏感性分析法,甄别对隧道工程资源环境影响效应优化具有重要影响的隧道设计因素;最后,以某山区铁路隧道工程为例,得到该隧道工程的资源环境影响效应值为4.7157,对应等级为较好,表明该隧道工程绿色设计水平较好,资源集约节约利用较合理、环境保护力度较大,可为其他类似工况隧道工程的绿色设计提供借鉴。此外,分析结果显示,注浆加固效果是导致该隧道工程资源环境影响效应变化最敏感的因素,其次为清污分流比例,可着重从这2个方面进行优化设计,以实现隧道工程资源环境影响效应的进一步优化。研究结果验证了本文研究方法的适用性和可操作性,可为山区铁路隧道工程资源环境影响效应评估及明确隧道工程优化设计方向提供科学依据。

基于PS-InSAR技术的晋城矿区地表形变监测及地质灾害风险预警

地表形变是一种严重的地质灾害现象,不仅严重影响灾害区居民的日常生活,而且会造成巨大的社会经济危害,尤其在采煤区。针对传统地表沉陷监测方法费时费力、无法获取地表沉降面状信息、难以进行地表沉陷灾害评估的不足,基于高分辨率SAR卫星影像,利用永久散射体合成孔径雷达干涉测量(PS-InSAR)技术对山西省晋城市晋城矿区2018年1月至2018年12月期间地表沉陷进行监测,分析获取了该地区地表连续形变情况,并利用该技术获取的海量PS点建立支持向量机(SVM)地质灾害风险评估预警模型,对晋城矿区周边居民点地质灾害风险进行了识别和预测。结果表明:晋城矿区10个煤矿及其周边区域存在较大的地表形变;晋城矿区平均LOS向年平均地表形变速率范围为-37~30.3 mm/a;PS-InSAR技术在晋城矿区地表形变监测中具有可行性,且可以实现矿区地质灾害风险综合识别和预警。

基于图像处理的水培生菜冠层图像叶面积估测研究

为实现精准、高效、无损地获取植物工厂环境下水培生菜相关长势参数叶面积(Leaf area,LA),基于数字图像处理和机器学习回归方法建立单株水培生菜冠层图像LA估测模型。首先,通过智能手机获取2个生菜品种不同生长期的冠层可见光图像,利用Photoshop图像处理软件将原始图像统一剪裁为900像素×900像素大小,采用中值滤波(MedianBlur)法对剪裁后的图像进行去噪运算,将RGB图像转化为HSV颜色空间,再采用mask掩膜法分割彩色图像;然后,利用图像法获取单株生菜LA实测值,构建以LA实测值为因变量,以生菜冠层投影面积(Projected leaf area,PLA)为自变量的线性回归(Linear regression,LR)模型和以全局图像特征(颜色、形状、纹理等)为自变量的支持向量回归(Support vector regression,SVR)、多元线性回归(Multiple linear regression,MLR)和随机森林(Random forest,RF)等LA估测模型进行对比分析;最后,采用决定系数(Coefficient of determination,R^(2))和均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)评估模型的准确性。结果表明:RF模型估测效果最好,对于生菜品种‘绿萝’单株LA估测结果的R^(2)为0.9714、RMSE为8.89 cm2,对于品种‘碧霄’估测结果的R^(2)为0.9201、RMSE为23.34 cm2。本研究验证了RF回归模型能够较准确地估测生菜单株叶面积,可为植物工厂水培生菜LA无损估测提供新的解决方案和研究基础。

基于可视化分析的国内水库移民后期扶持问题的研究与展望

当前,我国正处在“十四五”规划中的水库移民后期扶持关键阶段,为了优化水库移民后期扶持工作,促进水库移民安置区的经济社会健康持续发展。研究选取中国知网(CNKI)数据库中的298篇CSSCI期刊论文作为分析样本,运用CiteSpace6.2.6知识图谱和CNKI可视化分析工具对298篇样本进行了统计分析。研究结果有效地揭示我国水库移民后期扶持问题研究的热点领域,并预示了未来发展趋势,为相关政策制定和学术研究提供了参考。

“三农”领域高校智库建设现状及发展路径探析

“三农”领域高校智库在“三农”问题分析、决策拟定及政策工具弥补纠正等方面发挥着重要作用。为促进中国“三农”领域学术研究与智库研究有效对接,分析相关高校智库建设现状,总结其发展行为、运行机制、成果水平等方面及特点。研究发现,中国“三农”领域的高校智库建设主要依托一批专业化的研究团队和学术机构,在“三农”领域智库中数量占比最高且呈现快速增长趋势,并表现出强烈的地域性特征,在推动农业产业高质量发展方面发挥重要作用;但面临着服务乡村振兴的激励有限、协同合作能力有限、农业生产活动复杂性与农村调查公益性、成果实效水平不高和政策转化力度不够、资源及资金投入缺乏多元化与灵活性等困境。针对此,提出发挥涉农学科优势、推动成果评价制度改革、营造良好生态体系、畅通资政服务渠道、打造政产学研联盟共同体、构建“旋转门”机制、与新农村发展研究院协同建设等对策建议,以期对“三农”领域高校智库体系的建设与转型升级有所裨益,更好地满足新时期全面推进乡村振兴战略的智力需求。

贵州省Q县农村空巢老人养老问题分析

农村空巢老人是社会上的一个特殊群体,由于身体及精神等方面的原因使他们的晚年生活受到了很大的影响。为了解农村空巢老人晚年的养老现状,以贵州省Q县的农村为本次研究的对象,从中发现目前农村空巢老人养老所存在的问题,并针对其所存在的问题给出相应的对策。

基于斑马算法优化支持向量回归机模型预测页岩地层压力

针对陇东地区三叠系延长组7段(长7段)页岩孔隙结构复杂、非均质性强、地层压力预测精度较低等问题,提出了一种基于斑马算法优化支持向量回归机(ZOA-SVR)模型预测地层压力的方法,并在实际钻井中进行了应用,将预测结果与基于机器算法的模型和常规地层压力预测方法结果进行了对比。研究结果表明:①ZOA-SVR模型以实测地层压力数据为目标变量,优选与陇东地区长7段页岩地层压力数据关联度达到0.70以上的深度、声波时差、密度、补偿中子、自然伽马、深侧向电阻率、泥质含量等7个参数作为输入特征参数,设置训练样本数为40,交叉验证折数为5,初始化斑马种群数量为10,最大迭代次数为70,对惩罚因子和核参数进行优化并建模,参数优化后拟合优度指标R2达到0.942,模型预测的地层压力数据在训练集和测试集上的绝对误差均低于1 MPa,预测测试集地层压力数据与实测压力数据的平均相对误差为2.42%。②ZOA-SVR模型在研究区长7段地层压力预测中优势明显,比基于粒子群优化算法、灰狼算法和蚁群算法的模型具有更好的参数调节及优化能力,R2分别提高了0.209,0.327,0.142;比等效深度法、Eaton法、有效应力法预测的地层压力精度更高,相对误差分别降低了32.53%,15.31%,5.91%。③ZOA-SVR模型在实际钻井中的应用结果显示,研究区长7段地层压力在垂向上分布较稳定,泥页岩段的地层压力高于砂岩段,地层压力系数主要为0.80~0.90,整体上属于异常低压环境,与实际地层情况相符。

新时代民族地区中等职业教育的政策扶持:实践、问题、建议——以云南省为例

中等职业教育是我国民族地区普及高中阶段教育、促进产业转型发展的重要途径。新时代职业教育政策体系不断完善、工业4.0、“一带一路”倡议为云南省中等职业教育发展带来机遇,但云南省中等职业教育发展受到教育资源空间分布不均衡、教育质量亟待提升、内涵式发展意识缺失等问题的阻碍。因此,云南省在抓住机遇的同时,更要直面问题,从分区施策、改革政策与评估、打造地区精品课程和精品专业等方面应对新时代的挑战。

基于InSAR监测和PSO-SVR模型的高填方区沉降预测

基于小基线集干涉测量技术(small baseline subsets interferometric synthetic aperture radar,SBAS-InSAR)和机器学习知识对高填方区域进行地表沉降监测及预测,对工程项目的施工、检修、运营等工作都具有重要的指导意义。文章以重庆东港集装箱码头为研究对象,选取2018—2019年覆盖研究区的31景Sentinel-1A数据,利用SBAS-InSAR技术获取该区域的地表沉降数据,并进行内外精度评定;通过信息量模型分析地表沉降易发地地势特点,选择预测点位;通过灰色关联分析计算动态影响因素与沉降量之间的灰色关联度,使用主成分分析法从影响因素中提取出主成分,构建训练集和测试集,通过粒子群算法-支持向量机法(particle swarm optimization-support vector regression,PSO-SVR)预测模型对测试集数据进行预测。为验证该模型在高填方区域沉降预测的可靠性和优异性,将自回归差分整合移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)作为对比模型,分别将PSO-SVR模型的预测结果和ARIMA模型的预测结果与测试集进行对比。结果表明:PSO-SVR模型的预测精度优于ARIMA模型,在高填方区域地表沉降预测中具有较好的实用性。

民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持对生育意愿的影响--经济账还是情感账

代际支持是现阶段影响家庭生育意愿的重要因素。在国家鼓励生育背景下,通过构建“能力-环境-意愿”框架,探讨民族地区脱贫家庭代际支持对生育意愿的影响。研究发现:第一,民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持有助于提高生育意愿,其中经济账起主要作用,情感账以经济账的作用为前提;第二,在经济账中,民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持主要通过能力驱动机制影响生育意愿,即通过降低抚育成本、增加核心家庭收入和节约教育成本来提升生育意愿;第三,在情感账中,民族地区脱贫家庭的代际支持通过环境驱动机制影响生育意愿,即通过强化家庭导向为主的生育动机和塑造积极的生育态度来提升生育意愿。上述发现为代际支持提升生育意愿提供了新的视角和经验证据。

二十世纪五六十年代湖北青壮年支援新疆建设述略

二十世纪五六十年代,湖北支边青壮年响应国家号召,支援新疆社会主义建设。经过宣传动员、审核批准、分配安置和教育巩固等工作,先后有94421名支边青壮年和21757名家属进疆,他们不仅是新疆工农业战线上的生力军,而且带来了先进的生产经验和科学技术,增进了各民族的交往交流交融。这不仅为新时期做好对口援疆工作提供重要的借鉴,而且为现实维度的铸牢中华民族共同体意识提供了可感知的示范价值和鲜活案例。

新中国民族地区基础教育对口支援政策的历史演进与实践逻辑

基础教育对口支援是中国经济文化发达地区扶持民族地区教育事业发展的重要政策,对促进区域间教育共同发展产生了重要促进作用。新中国民族地区基础教育对口支援政策变迁主要经历了探索初创、形成发展、深化完善三个主要阶段,呈现出区域持续扩大、主体日益具体多元、内容形式不断丰富的特点。坚持党的全面领导,注重政策顶层设计与基层探索结合,实施教育反贫困治理,有为政府协调各方,强化检查督导确保实施成效是新中国民族地区基础教育对口支援政策的实践逻辑。

乡村振兴视域下农业农村人才培养困境与对策研究

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