Grain security is one of the most important issues worldwide.Many developing countries,including China,have adopted the Agriculture Support Price(ASP)program to stimulate farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain,to ensur...Grain security is one of the most important issues worldwide.Many developing countries,including China,have adopted the Agriculture Support Price(ASP)program to stimulate farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain,to ensure self-sufficiency in grain and the stable development of the grain market.To propose decision support for the government in designing a more reasonable support price in the ASP program,we formulate an agent-based model to simulate the operation of the wheat market in the harvest period.To formulate the formation process of the market price influenced by farmers’expected sale price,processors’expected purchase price,and the ASP,the time series and regression methods are adopted.Based on the proposed market price model,to quantitatively analyze the grain transaction process and the ASP program’s impacts on market agents,we develop an agent-based simulation model to describe the adaptive evolution and interaction among market agents.Furthermore,we validate and implement the simulation model with public wheat market data.Finally,insights and suggestions about the decision of the ASP program are provided.展开更多
Option pricing has become one of the quite important parts of the financial market. As the market is always dynamic, it is really difficult to predict the option price accurately. For this reason, various machine lear...Option pricing has become one of the quite important parts of the financial market. As the market is always dynamic, it is really difficult to predict the option price accurately. For this reason, various machine learning techniques have been designed and developed to deal with the problem of predicting the future trend of option price. In this paper, we compare the effectiveness of Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for the prediction of option price. Both models are tested with a benchmark publicly available dataset namely SPY option price-2015 in both testing and training phases. The converted data through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used in both models to achieve better prediction accuracy. On the other hand, the entire dataset is partitioned into two groups of training (70%) and test sets (30%) to avoid overfitting problem. The outcomes of the SVM model are compared with those of the ANN model based on the root mean square errors (RMSE). It is demonstrated by the experimental results that the ANN model performs better than the SVM model, and the predicted option prices are in good agreement with the corresponding actual option prices.展开更多
In this paper, we present a real decision support system applied to China's macroeconomic management. The structure, design and functions of the system are discussed, and the problems occurring in designing and ma...In this paper, we present a real decision support system applied to China's macroeconomic management. The structure, design and functions of the system are discussed, and the problems occurring in designing and making the system are also studied. A case study for China's petroleum price reform is given at the end of the paper.展开更多
Using the aggregate measurement of support （AMS） approach of the World Trade Organization （WTO）, this study estimates China＇s product-specific and non-product- specific amber box support levels between 2008 and 2...Using the aggregate measurement of support （AMS） approach of the World Trade Organization （WTO）, this study estimates China＇s product-specific and non-product- specific amber box support levels between 2008 and 2013. The result indicates that China＇s product-specific amber box support level has significantly increased but not yet exceeded the tolerable ceiling of de minimis and remains consistent with WTO rules on agricultural domestic support,＂ that there is still policy room for product-specific amber box support but the ceiling of de minimis has already imposed substantial constraint on China＇s grain price support policies; and that despite rapid increases in non-product-specific amber box support levels, future policy space remains significant. The result also suggests that China should make appropriate adjustments to product-specific amber box support policies in accordance with WTO rules on agricultural domestic support and make proper use of non- product-specific amber box support policies.展开更多
In order to meet the requirement of separating power plants from power network and that of the competition based power transaction in power market, the pricing decision support system for generation companies (GCPDSS)...In order to meet the requirement of separating power plants from power network and that of the competition based power transaction in power market, the pricing decision support system for generation companies (GCPDSS) is built in electricity market. This paper introduces the conception of intelligent decision support system (IDSS) and puts emphasis on the systematical structural framework, work process, design principal, and fundamental function of GCPDSS. The system has the module to analyze the cost, to forecast the demand of power, to construct the pricing strategies, to manage the pricing risk, and to dispatch giving the pricing strategies. The case study illustrates that the friendly window-based user interface of the system enables the user to take full advantage of the capabilities of the system in order to make effective real-time decisions.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),under grant No.72131001Construction Project of Baoding Low Carbon Economy Industry Research Institute(1106/9100615009).
文摘Grain security is one of the most important issues worldwide.Many developing countries,including China,have adopted the Agriculture Support Price(ASP)program to stimulate farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain,to ensure self-sufficiency in grain and the stable development of the grain market.To propose decision support for the government in designing a more reasonable support price in the ASP program,we formulate an agent-based model to simulate the operation of the wheat market in the harvest period.To formulate the formation process of the market price influenced by farmers’expected sale price,processors’expected purchase price,and the ASP,the time series and regression methods are adopted.Based on the proposed market price model,to quantitatively analyze the grain transaction process and the ASP program’s impacts on market agents,we develop an agent-based simulation model to describe the adaptive evolution and interaction among market agents.Furthermore,we validate and implement the simulation model with public wheat market data.Finally,insights and suggestions about the decision of the ASP program are provided.
文摘Option pricing has become one of the quite important parts of the financial market. As the market is always dynamic, it is really difficult to predict the option price accurately. For this reason, various machine learning techniques have been designed and developed to deal with the problem of predicting the future trend of option price. In this paper, we compare the effectiveness of Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for the prediction of option price. Both models are tested with a benchmark publicly available dataset namely SPY option price-2015 in both testing and training phases. The converted data through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used in both models to achieve better prediction accuracy. On the other hand, the entire dataset is partitioned into two groups of training (70%) and test sets (30%) to avoid overfitting problem. The outcomes of the SVM model are compared with those of the ANN model based on the root mean square errors (RMSE). It is demonstrated by the experimental results that the ANN model performs better than the SVM model, and the predicted option prices are in good agreement with the corresponding actual option prices.
基金This Project is partly supported by World Bank and National Science Foundation of China.And this is a team work,Prof. Deng Shuhui and Dr.Wu jianzhong also play an important role in the project
文摘In this paper, we present a real decision support system applied to China's macroeconomic management. The structure, design and functions of the system are discussed, and the problems occurring in designing and making the system are also studied. A case study for China's petroleum price reform is given at the end of the paper.
基金sponsored by the Cultural and Social Sciences Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education(Grant No.12YJC790296)the National Natural Sciences Foundation Program(Grants No.71273069 and No.71403277)
文摘Using the aggregate measurement of support （AMS） approach of the World Trade Organization （WTO）, this study estimates China＇s product-specific and non-product- specific amber box support levels between 2008 and 2013. The result indicates that China＇s product-specific amber box support level has significantly increased but not yet exceeded the tolerable ceiling of de minimis and remains consistent with WTO rules on agricultural domestic support,＂ that there is still policy room for product-specific amber box support but the ceiling of de minimis has already imposed substantial constraint on China＇s grain price support policies; and that despite rapid increases in non-product-specific amber box support levels, future policy space remains significant. The result also suggests that China should make appropriate adjustments to product-specific amber box support policies in accordance with WTO rules on agricultural domestic support and make proper use of non- product-specific amber box support policies.
基金NationalNaturalScienceFoundation (No .60 2 740 48) HebeiProvinceNaturalScienceFoundation (No .2 0 0 1ABB0 47)
文摘In order to meet the requirement of separating power plants from power network and that of the competition based power transaction in power market, the pricing decision support system for generation companies (GCPDSS) is built in electricity market. This paper introduces the conception of intelligent decision support system (IDSS) and puts emphasis on the systematical structural framework, work process, design principal, and fundamental function of GCPDSS. The system has the module to analyze the cost, to forecast the demand of power, to construct the pricing strategies, to manage the pricing risk, and to dispatch giving the pricing strategies. The case study illustrates that the friendly window-based user interface of the system enables the user to take full advantage of the capabilities of the system in order to make effective real-time decisions.
