Evaluating Land Surface Changes of Makassar City Using DInSAR and Landsat Thematic Mapper Images

Urban growth has been a major issue in environmental monitoring and changes occurred on land surfaces have been monitored by applying remote sensing as well as ground measurement. Most major cities in the world have experienced land subsidence phenomena on some parts of them due to the load of development and modernization. Excessive extraction of groundwater for the needs of industry has led to the condition where the water table drops, and this can possibly trigger subsidence, as observed in Indonesian cities. In this study the authors have shown that the application of DInSAR （differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar） technique using Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-I Synthetic Aperture Radar JERS-I SAR data can reveal subsidence conditions in the studied Makassar city area. Landsat TM （thematic mapper） images were used to evaluate the change of land cover during the observation period of 1994-1999. Makassar is fiat, covered mainly by alluvium deposit that is vulnerable to the load of constructions, and volcanic formations which is porous and will easily be degraded by groundwater extraction. It is found that mostly the subsidence has occurred in the western part of the city, including the industrial district, reclamation area, trading center area and the seaport area. The ground survey has indicated that high human activity exists in every point of subsidence. It is likely that various human activities such as ground water pumping and construction work should have affected the local subsidence phenomena in Makassar, as in the case of other large-scale cities in Indonesia.

Effect of ground cover changes on solar radiation absorption in Three Northeastern Provinces of China

Background,aim,and scope Solar radiation is the main source of energy for terrestrial ecosystems.Small changes in the absorption of solar radiation at the ground surface can have a significant impact on the climatic environment.Natural and anthropogenic changes in ground cover are important factors affecting the absorption of solar radiation at the ground surface.This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the mid and high latitudes.In order to quantify the inf luence of surface cover change on the absorption of solar radiation at the surface and to provide a scientific basis for changes in the climatic environment,this paper analyzed ground cover change,ground absorbed solar radiation change and the effect of ground cover change on ground absorbed solar radiation in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China from 2001 to 2018.Materials and methods In this study,the Three Northeastern Provinces of China were used as the study area.Firstly,satellite remote sensing data were used to obtain land cover data and albedo data for Aug.1st of each year in 2001,2005,2010,2015 and 2018.The albedo data were further used to calculate the absorbed solar radiation data at the ground surface.Next,the land cover data were used to count the area changes and shifts of different land classes over the five-year period.The land cover data were overlaid with the surface absorbed solar radiation data to obtain the mean and standard deviation of radiation absorption for different ground classes.The surface absorbed solar radiation data were subtracted to obtain the changes in surface absorbed solar radiation for 2001-2005,2005-2010,2010-2015 and 2015-2018.Ultimately,we used a combination of shifted changes in ground classes and changes in surface absorbed solar radiation data,with unchanged ground classes as a baseline and data such as slope orientation as an aid.We analyzed the effect of ground cover change on surface absorbed solar radiation at regional and pixel point scales.Results(1)The area of woodland and waters in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China increased and then decreased from 2001 to 2018,with an overall increase of 3.96%and 10.51%respectively.Cropland decreased and then increased,with a total decrease of 1.22%.Grassland continued to decrease,with an overall decrease of 19.36%.Building sites increased all the time,with a total increase of 11.08%.The main types of ground cover shifted were woodland,cropland and grassland.The main factors for the change in ground cover were China’s woodland protection policy and the saturation of the total woodland stock.(2)The five ground types absorb solar radiation in the order of waters>building sites>woodland>grassland>cropland.The surface absorption of solar radiation in the Songnen Plain,the Sanjiang Plain and the Songhua River Basin flowing through the Songnen Plain and the Sanjiang Plain varies significantly,by more than 25 W·m^(-2).(3)Changes in the ground cover type affected the absorption of solar radiation energy by the ground surface.There was a clear trend of interconversion between waters and cropland/grassland,cropland and woodland/grassland.In particular,the conversion of waters to both cropland and grassland radiation absorption values decreased significantly,while the opposite increased.The absolute difference between waters and cropland was a maximum of -156.66 W·m^(-2)in 2010-2015,and between waters and grassland was a maximum of 102.36 W·m^(-2) in 2005-2010.The radiative absorption values of woodland and grassland reclamation declined and conversely increased.The absolute difference between woodland and cropland was a maximum of-13.94 W·m^(-2) in 2010-2015 when woodland converted to cropland,and between grassland and cropland was a maximum of 22.36 W·m^(-2) in 2001-2005 when cropland converted to grassland,respectively.Discussion Ground cover changes in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China from 2001-2018 were inextricably linked to natural factors and the inf luence of Chinese national policies.The main inf luencing factors were China’s woodland protection policy,restoration of woodland fire sites,saturation of total woodland,optimization of cropland patterns,sanding of grassland,expansion of water conservancy projects,and urbanization expansion.There were differences in the radiation absorption characteristics of different ground cover types.This was due to the nature of the ground type itself and the regional environment.When ground cover types changed,their ability to absorb solar radiation also changed.The degree of change could be inf luenced by different ground types and different environmental factors.Different spatial scales can also produce variability.We need to consider the effects of ground cover change on the absorption of solar radiation at the surface in an integrated and comprehensive way.Conclusions The Three Northeastern Provinces of China had frequent changes in ground cover from 2001-2018,with the area of grassland decreased by almost 20%.These changes were due to natural environmental change and policies issued by China since the 21st century.The extent to which solar radiation was absorbed by different ground cover types was different,with grassland being the strongest and cropland the least.In the past few years,the Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain regions were the most significant changes in the absorption of solar radiation by the ground cover.The change in ground cover type led to a change in solar radiation absorption at the ground surface,with the conversion of waters to cropland or grassland and the conversion of cropland to woodland or grassland showing the greatest change in radiation absorption values,and vice versa.Of these,the absolute difference in the conversion of waters to cropland amounts to-156.66 W·m^(-2) in 2010-2015.The variation in the absorption of solar radiation at the ground surface was related to the characteristics of the ground class itself,but was also limited by the regional environment.Recommendations and perspectives This study showed that surface cover change can affect the absorption of solar radiation at the surface to varying degrees.The unchanged land classes were used as a comparative analysis in this paper,and it was clear from the paper that some of the unchanged land classes showed significant changes in radiation absorption that should be of interest in future studies.

Five decades of glacier changes in the Hulugou Basin of central Qilian Mountains, Northwest China

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in the arid regions of Northwest China. Glaciers provide a large proportion of water resources for human production and living. Studies of glacier changes and their impact on water resources in the arid lands are of vital importance. A joint expedition was carried out in 2010 for investigating glaciers in the Hulugou Basin, which is located in the upper reaches of Heihe River. There- fore, glacier changes in the Hulugou Basin of central Qilian Mountains during the past 50 years were analyzed in this study by comparing topographic maps, satellite images, digital elevation models and field observation data from different periods. Results showed that the total area of the 6 glaciers in the Hulugou Basin decreased by 0.590±0.005 km^2 during the period 1956-2011, corresponding to a loss of 40.7% over the total area in 1956. The average area reduction rate of the 6 glaciers is 0.011 km^2/a. During the past five decades, the glacier shrinkage was accelerated. The changes in glacier ice surface elevation ranged from -15 to 3 m with an average thinning of 10±8 m or an annual decrease of 0.23±0.18 m （0.20±0.15 m/a water equivalent） for the period 1956-2000. The area of Shiyi Glacier in the Hulugou Basin decreased from 0.64 km^2 in 1956 to 0.53 km2 in 2011 with a reduction rate of 17.2%. The Shiyi Glacier had been divided into two separated glaciers because of severe melting. Comparative analysis showed that glacier shrinkage in the Hulugou Basin is more serious than that in the other regions of Qilian Mountains.

Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change in Macao During the Period 1901-2007

Change related to climate in Macao was studied on the basis of daily temperature observations over the period 1901-2007. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature in Macao as a whole rose with a warming rate of about 0.066℃ per 10 years in the recent 107 years. The most evident warming occurred in spring and winter. The interdecadal variations of the seasonal mean temperature in summer and winter appeared as a series of waves with a time scale of about 30 years and 60 years, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased about twice as fast as the annual mean maximum temperature, resulting in a broad decline in the annual mean diurnal range. The interdecadal variations of annual mean maximum temperature are obviously different from those of annual mean minimum temperature. It appears that the increase in the annual mean maximum temperature in the recent 20 years may be part of slow climate fluctuations with a periodicity of about 60 years, whereas that in the annual mean minimum temperature appears to be the continuation of a long-term warming trend.

Assessment of aerosol effective radiative forcing and surface air temperature response over eastern China in CMIP5 models

The effective radiative forcing （ERF） and associated surface air temperature change over eastern China are estimated using multi-model results from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）. The model results show that, relative to 1850, the multi-model and annual mean aerosol ERF for the year 2005 is -4.14 W m^-2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern China （20°-45°N, 105°-122.5°E）. As a result of this ERF, the multi-model and annual mean surface air temperature change in eastern China during 1850-2005 is -1.05℃, leading to a climate sensitivity of 0.24℃/ （Wm^-2） in this region.

An Updated Estimation of Radiative Forcing due to CO_2 and Its Effect on Global Surface Temperature Change

New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing （ARF） due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 W m-2, which was 17% larger than that of the IPCC＇s 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of ＋2.2℃, ＋3.8℃, ＋5.1℃, ＋6.2℃, ＋7.1℃ and ＋8.0℃ respectively, based on a middle-level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K （W m 3）-1. Non-equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios （pulsed and sustained emissions） as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential （AGTP） of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth-atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.

Wettability Control between Oleophobic/Superhydrophilic and Superoleophilic/Superhydrophobic Characteristics on the Modified Surface Treated with Fluoroalkyl End-Capped Oligomers/Micro-Sized Polystyrene Particle Composites

Fluoroalkyl end-capped vinyltrimethoxysilane-N,N-dimethylacrylamide cooligomer [RF-(CH2-CHSi(OMe)3)x-(CH2-CHC(=O)NMe2)y-RF;RF = CF(CF3)OC3F7: RF-(VM)x-(DMAA)y-RF] was synthesized by reaction of fluoroalkanoyl peroxide [RF-C(=O)O-O(O=)C-RF] with vinyltrimethoxysilane (VM) and N,N-dimethylacrylamide (DMAA). The modified glass surface treated with the cooligomeric nanoparticles [RF-(VM-SiO3/2)x-(DMAA)y-RF] prepared under the sol-gel reaction of the cooligomer under alkaline conditions was found to exhibit an oleophobic/superhydrophilic property, although the corresponding fluorinated homooligomeric nanoparticles [RF-(VM-SiO3/2)n-RF] afforded an oleophobic/hydrophobic property on the modified surface under similar conditions. RF-(VM-SiO3/2)n-RF/RF-(VM-SiO3/2)x-(DMAA)y-RF/PSt (micro-sized polystyrene particles) composites, which were prepared by the sol-gel reactions of the corresponding homooligomer and cooligomer in the presence of PSt particle under alkaline conditions, provided an oleophobic/superhydrophilic property on the modified surface. However, it was demonstrated that the surface wettability on the modified surface treated with the RF-(VM-SiO3/2)n-RF/RF-(VM-SiO3/2)x-(DMAA)y-RF/PSt composites changes dramatically from oleophobic/superhydrophilic to superoleophilic/superhydrophilic and superoleophilic/superhydrophobic characteristics, increasing with greater feed ratios (mg/mg) of the RF-(VM)n-RF homooligomer in homooligomer/cooligomer from 0 to 100 in the preparation of the composites. Such controlled surfac

Detecting Climate Change in Using Extreme Data from Two Surface Weather Stations: Case Study Valle of Comitan and La Esperanza, Chiapas, Mexico

The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°52'5''W) a town with 3000 inhabitants. Both weather stations are 30 km from each other in the Chiapas State, México. 54 years of daily records of the series of maximum (tmax) and minimum temperatures (tmin) of the weather station 07205 Comitan that is on top of a house and 30 years of daily records of the weather station 07374 La Esperanza were analyzed. The objective is to analyze the evidence of climate change in the Comitan valley. 2.07% and 19.04% of missing data were filled, respectively, with the WS method. In order to verify homogeneity three methods were used: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), the Von Neumann method and the Buishand method. The heterogeneous series were homogenized using climatol. The trends of tmax and tmin for both weather stations were analyzed by simple linear regression, Sperman’s rho and Mann-Kendall tests. The Mann-Kendal test method confirmed the warming trend at the Comitan station for both variables with ZMK statistic values equal to 1.57 (statistically not significant) and 4.64 (statistically significant). However, for the Esperanza station, it determined a cooling trend for tmin and a slight non-significant warming for tmax with a ZMK statistic of -2.27 (statistically significant) and 1.16 (statistically not significant), for a significance level α = 0.05.

Interdecadal change of winter SST variability in the Kuroshio Extension region and its linkage with Aleutian atmospheric low pressure system

By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature（SST） variability in the Kuroshio Extension（KE） region is investigated. And its linkage with the Aleutian Low（AL） activity changes is also discussed. The results find that the KE SST variability exhibits the significant ~6 a and ~10 a oscillations with obvious interdecadal change. The ~6 a oscillation is mainly detected during 1930–1950, which is largely impacted by the anomalous surface heat flux forcing and Ekman heat transport associated with the AL intensity variation. The ~10 a oscillation is most evident after the 1980s, which is predominantly triggered by the AL north-south shift through the bridge of oceanic Rossby waves.

Multiple ocean surface temperature changes induced multi-decadal global warming rate

Subject Code:D05Under support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China,a concerted study by Dr.Huang Gang(黄刚)from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,climate scientist Jing-Jia Luo from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology,Dr.Yao Shuailei(姚帅磊)from the Institute

近期青藏高原普若岗日冰原冰川跃动特征

The Puruogangri Ice Field(PIF), classified as an ultra-continental glacier, is considered extremely stable. However, several glaciers in this area have recently experienced surge events with significant instability and information on surge-type glaciers(STGs) in this region remains scarce. In this study, we identified six STGs and reported the observed characteristics of their surging behavior in the region by mapping glacier boundaries, surface flow velocity information, and glacier surface elevation changes using recent Landsat satellite imagery and shuttle radar topography mission(SRTM), TanDEM, and ASTER digital elevation model(AST14DEM) data. These data provide valuable insights into recent glacial processes, flow instability, and rapid glacial movement. During the active phase of the glaciers,all exhibited frontal advances and changes in surface elevation. Owing to limitations in the satellite imagery, flow velocity profiles were only available for glaciers N1(G089071E33998N),NE1(G089128E33943N), and SE3(G089278E33913N) during the active phase. However,these results effectively reflect the velocity variations in both glaciers before, during, and after the surge. Based on the characteristics of the STG, scientific expeditions, and meteorological data, we believe that the surge in PIF was largely influenced by glacier meltwater and changes in subglacial drainage systems.

Tremendous change of the earth surface system and tectonic setting of salt-lake formation in Yuncheng Basin since 7.1 Ma

The Yuncheng salt lake has formed under the setting of stepped subsidence of fault-blocks from the north to the south in Yuncheng Basin. In the phase of red clay accumulation during 7.1–3.6 Ma, the size of palaeo-lake was larger than the present salt lake, and palaeo-monsoon had formed. At 3.6 Ma, the northern basement in the basin raised abruptly due to the radiative effect of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau uplifting, and palaeo-lake was contracting southwards. At ca. 2.6 Ma ancient river flowed into the northern part of the basin. During ca. 2.0–1.9 Ma aerolian effect strengthened and loess started to accumulate on the most part of the basin. Since ca. 1.8–1.0 Ma the subsidence of the lake fault-block has been speeding up abruptly. As under the natural hydrogradient the salt lake received enough groundwater supply, and the rate of loess accumulation in the lake area was lower than that of subsidence of the lake fault-block, the lake could be preserved and becomes the only modern lake on Chinese Loess Plateau. Four large strengthening change records of the monsoon were found in the lake sequence of 5.8–1.9 Ma B.P.

Interpreting the sea surface temperature warming trend in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Previous studies have demonstrated that the low-frequency sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea(YECS) is linked to large-scale climate variability, but explanations on the mechanisms vary. This study examines the low-frequency variability and trends of some atmospheric and oceanic variables to discuss their different effects on the YECS warming. The increasing temperature trend is also observed at a hydrographic section transecting the Kuroshio.The increasing rate of ocean temperature decreases with depth, which might result in an increase in vertical stratification and a decrease in vertical mixing, and thus plays a positive role on the YECS warming. The surface net heat flux(downward positive)displays a decreasing trend, which is possibly a result of the YECS warming, and, in turn, inhibits it. Wind speeds show different trends in different datasets, such that its role in the YECS warming is uncertain. The trends in wind stress divergence and curl have large uncertainties, so their effects on SST warming are still unclear. The Kuroshio heat transport calculated in this study,displays no significantly increasing trend, so is an unlikely explanation for the SST warming. Limited by sparse ocean observations,sophisticated assimilative climate models are still needed to unravel the mechanisms behind the YECS warming.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE INFLUENCES OF GENERAL CIRCULATION ANOMALY OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND SURFACE ALBEDO CHANGE IN NORTHWEST CHINA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION

An advanced three-level global atmospheric general circulation model has been used to study the summer precipitation anomaly in Northwest China.based on the synoptic fact and the statistical analysis of the precipitation,the surface albedo in Northwest China,and the synoptic systems over the Tibetan(Qinghai-Xizang)Plateau.The results show that either the anticyclone intensified over the plateau or the surface alhedo enhanced in Northwest China results in summer precipitation reduction east of Northwest China.Especially.when both of them appear simultaneously,summer precipitation was obviously reduced and severe drought occurred in most areas of Northwest China.Moreover.the simulated difference of precipitation rate of Northwest China is similar to the actural precipitation distribution in Northwest China in 1995,which is the most severe drought year in Northwest China in the past fifty years.So the tendency in drought severity intensified,drought frequency accelerated,drought persistence period extended,and drought areas expanded in Northwest China in recent years is maybe a result of the influences of human activities(e.g.vegetation was reduced,and desertification worsened)on drought circulation pattens over the Tibetan Plateau.

FLOW STRUCTURE AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT WITH IMPACTS OF AQUATIC VEGETATION

Aquatic vegetation plays an important role in the flow structure of open channels and thus changes the fate and the transport of sediment. This article proposes a three-dimensional turbulence model by introducing vegetation density and drag force into the control equations of water flow in the presence of vegetation. The model was used to calculate the impacts of submerged vegetation on the vertical profiles of longitudinal flow velocities, the changes of the depth-averaged flow velocities in a compound channel with emergent vegetation in the floodplain, the removal of suspended sediment from the channels by emergent vegetation, and the bed changes around and in a vegetated island. Numerical investigations show that aquatic vegetation retards flow in the vegetation zone, reduces the sediment transport capacity, and contributes to erosion on both sides of the vegetated island. Calculated results agree well with experimental results.

In situ cosmogenic ^(10)Be dating of the Quaternary glaciations in the southern Shaluli Mountain on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

It is generally considered that four-times ice age happened during the Quaternary epoch on the Tibetan Plateau. However, the research on the chronology of the four-times ice age is far from enough. The Shaluli Mountain on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau is an ideal place for plaeo-glacier study, because there are abundant Quaternary glacial remains there. This paper discusses the ages of the Quaternary glaciations, based on the exposure dating of roche moutonnée, moraines and gla- cial erosion surfaces using in situ cosmogenic isotopes 10Be. It is found that the exposure age of the roche moutonnée at Tuershan is 15 ka, corresponding to Stage 2 of the deep-sea oxygen isotope, suggesting that the roche moutonnée at Tuershan is formed in the last glacial maximum. The expo- sure age of glacial erosion surface at Laolinkou is 130―160 ka, corresponding to Stage 6 of the deep-sea oxygen isotope. The oldest end moraine at Kuzhaori may form at 421―766 kaBP, corre- sponding to Stages 12―18 of the deep-sea oxygen isotope. In accordance with the climate charac- teristic of stages 12,14,16 and 18 reflected by the deep-sea oxygen isotope, polar ice cores and loess sequence, the oldest end moraine at Kuzhaori may form at stage 12 or stage 16, the latter is more possible.

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems:a region by region overview

Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise,increased storminess,altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at re-gional scales.This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts,and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities,their biodiversity and geo-morphological setting.All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts,and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location,these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales.Sea level rise is likely to in-fluence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied.Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America,Asia,Australia,and East Africa than West Africa and S.America.This review also highlights the nu-merous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts,with some regions particularly understudied(e.g.,Africa and the Middle East).While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia,further research is required to allow research-ers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change.A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

Detecting the storage and change on topsoil organic carbon in grasslands of Inner Mongolia from 1980s to 2010s

Soil carbon sequestration and potential has been a focal issue in global carbon research. Under the background of global change, the estimation of the size as well as its change of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage is of great importance. Based on soil data from the second national soil survey and field survey during 2011–2012, by using the regression method between sampling soil data and remote sensing data, this paper aimed to investigate spatial distribution and changes of topsoil（0–20 cm） organic carbon storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s. The results showed that：（1） the SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s was estimated to be 2.05 and 2.17 Pg C, with an average density of 3.48 and 3.69 kg C·m–2, respectively. The SOC storage was mainly distributed in the typical steppe and meadow steppe, which accounted for over 98% of the total SOC storage. The spatial distribution showed a decreased trend from the meadow steppe, typical steppe to the desert steppe, corresponding to the temperature and precipitation gradient.（2） SOC changes during 1982–2012 were estimated to be 0.12 Pg C, at 7.00 g C·m–2·yr–1, which didn＇t show a significant change, indicating that SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable over this period. However, topsoil organic carbon showed different trends of carbon source/sink during the past three decades. Meadow steppe and typical steppe had sequestered 0.15 and 0.03 Pg C, respectively, served as a carbon sink; while desert steppe lost 0.06 Pg C, served as a carbon source. It appears that SOC storage in grassland ecosystem may respond differently to climate change, related to vegetation type, regional climate type and grazing intensity. These results might give advice to decision makers on adopting suitable countermeasures for sustainable grassland utilization and protection.

Variations in soil moisture over the ‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain＇ in China due to temperature change using the CNOP-P method and outputs from CMIP5

In this study, the variations in surface soil liquid water(SSLW) due to future climate change are explored in the‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain'(‘3H') region in China with the Common Land Model(CoLM). To evaluate the possible maximum response of SSLW to climate change, the combination of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter(CNOP-P) approach and projections from 10 general circulation models(GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5(CMIP5) are used. The CNOP-P-type temperature change scenario, a new type of temperature change scenario, is determined by using the CNOP-P method and constrained by the temperature change projections from the 10 GCMs under a high-emission scenario(the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario). Numerical results have shown that the response of SSLW to the CNOP-P-type temperature scenario is stronger than those to the 11 temperature scenarios derived from the 10 GCMs and from their ensemble average in the entire ‘3H' region. In the northern region, SSLW under the CNOP-P-type scenario increases to0.1773 m^3 m^(-3); however, SSLW in the scenarios from the GCMs fluctuates from 0.1671 to 0.1748 m^3 m^(-3). In the southern region,SSLW decreases, and its variation(–0.0070 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the CNOP-P-type scenario is higher than each of the variations(–0.0051 to –0.0026 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the scenarios from the GCMs.