Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections

Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.

Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models:Taking Bohai Bay as an example

The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.

Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975–2021 in the Eastern China Sea

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.

A typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model with GPU acceleration based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation grid

Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.

Exploration of standard dosage for GnRH antagonist protocol and dosage adjustments after premature luteinizing hormone surge

The gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist protocol has emerged as an efficacious alternative to the GnRH agonist protocol for controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) during in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles, and has been demonstrated applicability in infertile female patients with diverse ovarian responses. While the clinical implementation of the antagonist COH protocol has achieved widespread consensus, opportunities for refinement persist. Therefore, this review article focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of GnRH antagonist protocol, the selection of optimal standard doses, and the strategies for adjusting antagonist doses after the premature luteinizing hormone (LH) surge, aiming to provide more reasonable and scientific recommendations for the application of this scheme.

Metaverse Upsurge Drives Virtual Human Industry to Upgrade

The concept of a virtual human is rapidly fermenting with the boom of the metaverse in 2020.In March 2021,Roblox,a game company focusing on the socialization of teenagers’games and the free realization of UGC,went public.In its prospectus,Roblox is defined as the concept of the metaverse.Under this background,as the direct embodiment of“virtual identity”and“virtual reality coexisting”under the concept of the metaverse,the emerging definition of virtual human and its representative virtual image has gradually caught the attention of the public.

A Boost to Inbound Tourism China sees surge in foreign travellers following introduction of visa-free transit measures

One of the viral terms on Chinese social media these days-“city bu city”–was actually created by a foreign tourist.The tourist,a blogger,used the term,which literally means city or not city,in a short video he filmed while visiting the Great Wall,wondering whether the place is like a fashionable big city.

Novel layout design of 4H-SiC merged PiN Schottky diodes leading to improved surge robustness

A method to improve the surge current capability of silicon carbide(SiC)merged PiN Schottky(MPS)diodes is presented and investigated via three-dimensional electro-thermal simulations.When compared with a conventional MPS diode,the proposed structure has a more uniform current distribution during bipolar conduction due to the help of the continuous P+surface,which can avoid the formation of local hotspots during the surge process.The Silvaco simulation results show that the proposed structure has a 20.29%higher surge capability and a 15.06%higher surge energy compared with a conventional MPS diode.The bipolar on-state voltage of the proposed structure is 4.69 V,which is 56.29%lower than that of a conventional MPS diode,enabling the device to enter the bipolar mode earlier during the surge process.Furthermore,the proposed structure can suppress the occurrence of‘snapback'phenomena when switching from the unipolar to the bipolar operation mode.In addition,an analysis of the surge process of MPS diodes is carried out in detail.

Numerical Study on Aerodynamic Performance of Floating Dual-Rotor Wind Turbines in Heave and Surge Motions

Compared with the traditional wind turbine of a single rotor,dual-rotor wind turbines(DRWTs)have higher wind energy capture efficiency and a more complex structure.Therefore,the aerodynamic performance of the DRWT installed on the floating platform will be greatly affected by the motion caused by wind and wave loads.In this paper,5 MW and 750 kW single rotor wind turbines(SRWTs)are combined into a 5 MW-5 MW DRWT and a 5 MW-750 kW DRWT,and their power output and wake field characteristics in different motions are studied.The flow field is obtained by solving the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equation(RANS).The overset grid technique is employed to achieve the large-amplitude multiple-degree-of-freedom motion of the DRWT.The overall performance of the 5 MW single rotor wind turbine is determined by a numerical method.For the DRWTs,numerical results show that the surge motion and heave motion both have a negative effect on the power output of the DRWT.The surge motion is a critical factor that causes the power output of the DRWT to periodically change with motion.The average power output of the DRWT influenced by motion is lower than that of a DRWT with a fixed bottom.The surge motion significantly disturbs the wake of the DRWT due to the mutual interference between the upstream and downstream rotors.Under the influence of heave motion,low-velocity regions downstream of the blade tip are enhanced.This study indicates that attenuating the surge and heave motion of offshore DRWT is very significant for improving its efficiency and should be taken into consideration during the design procedure.

Assessment of Storm Surge and Flood Inundation in Chittagong City of Bangladesh Based on ADCIRC and GIS

Coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones has long been a major threat to life,property,and infrastructure in coastal zones.This study assessed the risk of flooding in Chittagong,southeastern Bangladesh,under extreme sea level scenarios caused by high astronomical tides and storm surges.The Jelesnianski typhoon model and the ADvanced CIRCulation hydrodynamic model were used to simulate 91 typhoons that occurred in the Bay of Bengal between 1981 and 2017,and observational data were used for model validation.The inundation model was based on a digital elevation model and a seed spread algorithm,and a geographical information system was used to visualize the flood risk.Under four scenarios,the changes in flood levels caused by sea level rise had no signifi-cant influence on the extent of flooding in Chittagong.At flood levels of 8.82m(50-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 8.89 m(50-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum estimated area of inundation was 11.35 km^(2).The western coastal and southeastern river coastal plain areas of Chittagong have the highest risk of inundation due to their low-lying terrain.At flood levels of 9.83m(100-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 9.97m(100-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum simulated flood extent was 36.44km^(2).Simulated floodwaters propagated in a south–north direction,and most of the northern areas of the city are at risk of inundation under these scenarios.

Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

Numerical Simulation of the Influence of Mean Sea Level Rise on Typhoon Storm Surge in the East China Sea

In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED to simulate storm surge is validated by comparing model result with observed data. Sensitivity experiments are designed to study the influence of sea level rise on typhoon storm surge. Numerical experiment shows that influence of mean sea level rise on typhoon storm surge is non-uniform spatially and changes as typhoon process differs. Maybe fixed boundary method would weaken the influence of mean sea level rise on storm surge, and free boundary method is suggested for the succeeding study.

Numerical simulation of typhoon- induced storm surge on the coast of Jiangsu Province,China,based on coupled hydrodynamic and wave models

In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.

Numerical study on effect of tidal phase on storm surge in the South Yellow Sea

Because of the special topography and large tidal range in the South Yellow Sea,the dynamic process of tide and storm surge is very complicated.The shallow water circulation model Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC)was used to simulate the storm surge process during typhoon Winnie,Prapiroon,and Damrey,which represents three types of tracks attacking the South Yellow Sea,which are,moving northward after landing,no landing but active in offshore areas,and landing straightly to the coastline.Numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of tidal phase on the tide-surge interaction as well as storm surge.The results show that the peak surge caused by Winnie and Prapiroon occurs 2-5 h before the high tide and its occurring time relative to high tide has little change with tidal phase variations.On the contrary,under the action of Damrey,the occurring time of the peak surge relative to high tide varies with tidal phase.The variation of tide-surge interaction is about 0.06-0.37 m,and the amplitude variations of interaction are smooth when tidal phase changes for Typhoon Winnie and Prapiroon.While the interaction is about 0.07-0.69 m,and great differences exists among the stations for Typhoon Damrey.It can be concluded that the tide-surge interaction of the former is dominated by the tidal phase modulation,and the time of surge peak is insensitive to the tidal phase variation.While the interaction of the latter is dominated by storm surge modulation due to the water depth varying with tide,the time of surge peak is significantly affected by tidal phase.Therefore,influence of tidal phase on storm surge is related to typhoon tracks which may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan(5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan （typhoon Vera （5915））, which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.

Effects of tide-surge interaction and wave set-up/set-down on surge: case studies of tropical cyclones landing China's Zhe-Min coast

Storm surge along the China＇s Zhe-Min coast is addressed using the tightly coupled surge model ofADCIRC＋SWAN. In this study, we primarily focus on the effects of surge-tide interaction and waveset-up/set-down. And the influences of intensity and landing moment of tropical cyclone （TC） arealso presented. The results show that： water elevation without considering tide-surge interactiontends to be underestimated/overestimated when TC lands during astronomical low/high tide;tide-surge coupling effect is more pronounced north of TC track （more than 0.7 m in our cases）;irrelevant to TC＇s intensity, wave set-up south of TC track is negligible because the depth-relatedwave breaking doesn＇t occur in water body blown towards open seas.

Statistical and causes analysis of storm surges along Tianjin coast during the past 20 years

Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Tianjin coast every year. The maximum high tide and average tide of Tianjin coast occurred in summer and autumn, and the maximum water increase also occurred in summer and autumn. Days with water increase more than 100 cm mostly occurred in spring, autumn and winter. Then we summarized the causes of coastal storm surge disaster in Tianjin based on astronomical tide factors, meteorological factors, sea level rise, land subsidence, and geographic factors, et al. Finally, we proposed storm surge disaster prevention measures.

促进绿色经济的城市绿色基础设施生态系统服务——欧盟GREEN SURGE研究项目解析

从整体到分项,对基于欧盟城市可持续与绿色发展的GREEN SURGE项目进行深入分析与总结。GREEN SURGE是第7个欧盟研究与技术发展框架计划中的一个研究项目。研究从整体、理念到实践的创新对GREEN SURGE项目进行了解读。其目的主要是促进绿色基础设施和城市生物多样性对城市可持续发展和绿色经济建设的积极作用。理念上,创新性地提出城市生物文化多样性的概念,并对城市绿色基础设施生态系统服务进行评估,对绿色经济提出新的认识与理解;实践上,通过对欧洲城市地区的研究调查,凝练出5大绿色基础设施战略规划方法以及6大绿色基础设施创新治理安排。这些经验对于我国绿色空间研究、规划及治理均具有较为重要的启示作用。

Numerical simulations and comparative analysis for two types of storm surges in the Bohai Sea using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.

Fluid-structure Interaction Analysis and Lifetime Estimation of a Natural Gas Pipeline Centrifugal Compressor under Near-choke and Near-surge Conditions

Up to present, there have been no studies concerning the application of fluid-structure interaction（FSI） analysis to the lifetime estimation of multi-stage centrifugal compressors under dangerous unsteady aerodynamic excitations. In this paper, computational fluid dynamics（CFD） simulations of a three-stage natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressor are performed under near-choke and near-surge conditions, and the unsteady aerodynamic pressure acting on impeller blades are obtained. Then computational structural dynamics（CSD） analysis is conducted through a one-way coupling FSI model to predict alternating stresses in impeller blades. Finally, the compressor lifetime is estimated using the nominal stress approach. The FSI results show that the impellers of latter stages suffer larger fluctuation stresses but smaller mean stresses than those at preceding stages under near-choke and near-surge conditions. The most dangerous position in the compressor is found to be located near the leading edge of the last-stage impeller blade. Compressor lifetime estimation shows that the investigated compressor can run up to 102.7 h under the near-choke condition and 200.2 h under the near-surge condition. This study is expected to provide a scientific guidance for the operation safety of natural gas pipeline centrifugal compressors.