This study investigates the application of the two-parameter Weibull distribution in modeling state holding times within HIV/AIDS progression dynamics. By comparing the performance of the Weibull-based Accelerated Fai...This study investigates the application of the two-parameter Weibull distribution in modeling state holding times within HIV/AIDS progression dynamics. By comparing the performance of the Weibull-based Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, Cox Proportional Hazards model, and Survival model, we assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing survival rates across varying gender, age groups, and treatment categories. Simulated data was used to fit the models, with model identification criteria (AIC, BIC, and R2) applied for evaluation. Results indicate that the AFT model is particularly sensitive to interaction terms, showing significant effects for older age groups (50 - 60 years) and treatment interaction, while the Cox model provides a more stable fit across all age groups. The Survival model displayed variability, with its performance diminishing when interaction terms were introduced, particularly in older age groups. Overall, while the AFT model captures the complexities of interactions in the data, the Cox model’s stability suggests it may be better suited for general analyses without strong interaction effects. The findings highlight the importance of model selection in survival analysis, especially in complex disease progression scenarios like HIV/AIDS.展开更多
Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical ...Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.展开更多
AIM: To determine the influence of gender on the clinicopathologic characteristics and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of medical records was performed in 29...AIM: To determine the influence of gender on the clinicopathologic characteristics and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of medical records was performed in 299 patients with HCC and their clinicopathologic features and survival were compared in relation to gender. RESULTS: There were 260 male (87%) and 39 female patients (13%),with a male-to-female ratio of 6.7:1.Female patients had lower mean serum bilirubin levels (P=0.03), lower proportion of alcohol abuse (P=0.002),smaller mean tumor size (P=0.02),more frequent nodular type but less frequent massive and diffuse types of HCC (P=0.01),were less advanced in Okuda's staging (P=0.04),and less frequently associated with venous invasion (P=0.03).The median survivals in females (14 too) were significantly longer than that of male patients (4 mo) (P=0.004,log-rank test). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high serum alpha- fetoprotein levels,venous invasion,extrahepatic metastasis and lack of therapy were independent factors related to unfavorable prognosis.However,gender did not constitute a predictive variable associated with patient survival. CONCLUSION: Female patients tend to have higher survival rates than males.These differences were probably due to more favorable pathologic features of HCC at initial diagnosis and greater likelihood to undergo curative therapy in female patients.展开更多
The distribution characteristics of the neutron field in cement was simulated using the MCNP code to comply with the requirements of an online Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis system.Simulation results showed ...The distribution characteristics of the neutron field in cement was simulated using the MCNP code to comply with the requirements of an online Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis system.Simulation results showed that the neutron relative flux proportion reduced with increasing cement thickness.When the cement thickness remains unchanged,the reduced proportion of thermal neutrons increases to a small extent,but the epithermal, intermediate,and fast neutrons will decrease according to the geometric progression.H element in the cement mainly affects the reduction of fast neutrons and other single-substance elements,e.g.,O,Ca,56Fe,Si,and Al.It also slows down the reduction of the fast neutrons via inelastic scattering.O contributes more than other elements in the reduction of fast neutrons.Changing the H content affects the thermal,epithermal,intermediate,and fast neutrons, while changing the Ca,Fe,and Si contents only influences the thermal,epithermal,and intermediate neutrons;hence, there is little effect on the reduction of fast neutrons.展开更多
文摘This study investigates the application of the two-parameter Weibull distribution in modeling state holding times within HIV/AIDS progression dynamics. By comparing the performance of the Weibull-based Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, Cox Proportional Hazards model, and Survival model, we assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing survival rates across varying gender, age groups, and treatment categories. Simulated data was used to fit the models, with model identification criteria (AIC, BIC, and R2) applied for evaluation. Results indicate that the AFT model is particularly sensitive to interaction terms, showing significant effects for older age groups (50 - 60 years) and treatment interaction, while the Cox model provides a more stable fit across all age groups. The Survival model displayed variability, with its performance diminishing when interaction terms were introduced, particularly in older age groups. Overall, while the AFT model captures the complexities of interactions in the data, the Cox model’s stability suggests it may be better suited for general analyses without strong interaction effects. The findings highlight the importance of model selection in survival analysis, especially in complex disease progression scenarios like HIV/AIDS.
文摘Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.
文摘AIM: To determine the influence of gender on the clinicopathologic characteristics and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of medical records was performed in 299 patients with HCC and their clinicopathologic features and survival were compared in relation to gender. RESULTS: There were 260 male (87%) and 39 female patients (13%),with a male-to-female ratio of 6.7:1.Female patients had lower mean serum bilirubin levels (P=0.03), lower proportion of alcohol abuse (P=0.002),smaller mean tumor size (P=0.02),more frequent nodular type but less frequent massive and diffuse types of HCC (P=0.01),were less advanced in Okuda's staging (P=0.04),and less frequently associated with venous invasion (P=0.03).The median survivals in females (14 too) were significantly longer than that of male patients (4 mo) (P=0.004,log-rank test). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high serum alpha- fetoprotein levels,venous invasion,extrahepatic metastasis and lack of therapy were independent factors related to unfavorable prognosis.However,gender did not constitute a predictive variable associated with patient survival. CONCLUSION: Female patients tend to have higher survival rates than males.These differences were probably due to more favorable pathologic features of HCC at initial diagnosis and greater likelihood to undergo curative therapy in female patients.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholar(41025015)NSFC(40974065,11105132)+3 种基金Province Key Technology R&D Program(2011FZ0055)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2012AA063501)the Basic Research for Application of Sichuan Province(2012JY0109)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2012M520245)
文摘The distribution characteristics of the neutron field in cement was simulated using the MCNP code to comply with the requirements of an online Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis system.Simulation results showed that the neutron relative flux proportion reduced with increasing cement thickness.When the cement thickness remains unchanged,the reduced proportion of thermal neutrons increases to a small extent,but the epithermal, intermediate,and fast neutrons will decrease according to the geometric progression.H element in the cement mainly affects the reduction of fast neutrons and other single-substance elements,e.g.,O,Ca,56Fe,Si,and Al.It also slows down the reduction of the fast neutrons via inelastic scattering.O contributes more than other elements in the reduction of fast neutrons.Changing the H content affects the thermal,epithermal,intermediate,and fast neutrons, while changing the Ca,Fe,and Si contents only influences the thermal,epithermal,and intermediate neutrons;hence, there is little effect on the reduction of fast neutrons.
