A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method(M-CF) for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment:A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method(FW), certainty coefficient method(CF) and geomorphic information entropy method(GI). Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method(M-CF) to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.

Hot cracking susceptibility of AlSi7MgCu alloys and effects of alloying elements magnesium and copper

Hot cracking during solidification can be a serious problem in aluminium casting alloys under certain conditions.This feature is well known,but still insuffi ciently investigated in shape casting.This study gives a brief overview of the factors inf luencing hot cracking during shape casting.Five different AlSi7MgCu alloys with varying Mg and Cu contents were examined.Theoretical models,including the cracking susceptibility coeffi cient(CSC)from Clyne and Davies,were considered.Thermodynamic calculations(terminal freezing range,TFR)of the behavior of the solid fraction during solidif ication were compared to an experimentbased hot cracking indexing(HCI)method.Scanning electron microscopy(SEM)was used to compare the existing microstructure and precipitated thermodynamic phases using the software ThermoCalc Classic(TCC).Furthermore,SEM was used to investigate crack surfaces initiated by a dog-bone shaped mold during casting.A good correlation between theoretical models and the experimental hot cracking index method was observed.