Bayesian sequential testing for exponential life system with reliability growth

A Bayesian sequential testing method is proposed to evaluate system reliability index with reliability growth during development.The method develops a reliability growth model of repairable systems for failure censored test,and figures out the approach to determine the prior distribution of the system failure rate by applying the reliability growth model to incorporate the multistage test data collected from system development.Furthermore,the procedure for the Bayesian sequential testing is derived for the failure rate of the exponential life system,which enables the decision to terminate or continue development test.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and procedure.

Investigation of stressful life events in patients with systemic sclerosis

Objective: To assess the occurrence of stressful life events in the year before the initiation of systemic sclerosis. Methods: A consecutive series of 40 patients with systemic sclerosis (mean age (56.3±11.9) years, mean disease duration (4.3±3.1) years; 32 females and 8 males), including 28 with diffuse cutaneous scleroderma and 12 with limited cutaneous scleroderma, were evaluated. A control group of 40 healthy subjects free of systemic sclerosis also was included. Socioeconomic status was inves- tigated and Paykel's interview for recent life events (a semi-structured research interview covering 64 life events) was conducted. Results: Patients with systemic sclerosis showed higher percentages of lower education (72.5%) and working class (82.5%), and reported more stressful life events (P<0.05), such as exits (P<0.05), undesirable events (P<0.01), and uncontrolled events (P<0.001), when compared with the control. More events that had an objective negative impact (P<0.001) were also reported in systemic sclerosis patients than in the control. These results are in accordance with a multifactorial model of pathogenesis in systemic sclerosis. Conclusion: We reported a strong relationship between stressful life events and the initiation of systemic sclerosis. Our findings are consistent with current understanding of the extensive links of behavioral responses to stress with neurophysiological and biochemical processes.

Life Distribution Transformation Model of Planetary Gear System

Planetary gear systems have been widely used in transportation, construction, metallurgy, petroleum, aviation and other industrial fields. Under the same condition of power transmission, they have a more compact structure than ordinary gear train. However, some critical parts, such as sun gear, planet gear and ring gear often suffer from fatigue and wear under the conditions of high speed and heavy load. For reliability research, in order to predict the fatigue probability life of planetary gear system, detailed kinematic and mechanical analysis for a planetary gear system is firstly completed. Meanwhile, a gear bending fatigue test is carried out at a stress level to obtain the strength information of specific gears. Then, a life distribution transformation model is established according to the order statistics theory. Transformation process is that, the life distribution of test gear is transformed to that of single tooth, and then the life distribution of single tooth can be effectively transformed to that of the planetary gear system. In addition, the effectiveness of the transformation model is finally verified by a processing method with random censoring data.

Nine requirements for the origin of Earth’s life:Not at the hydrothermal vent, but in a nuclear geyser system

The origin of life on Earth remains enigmatic with diverse models and debates.Here we discuss essential requirements for the first emergence of life on our planet and propose the following nine requirements:(1)an energy source(ionizing radiation and thermal energy);(2)a supply of nutrients(P.K.REE.etc.);(3)a supply of life-constituting major elements;(4)a high concentration of reduced gases such as CH4,HCN and NH3;(5)dry-wet cycles to create membranes and polymerize RNA;(6)a non-toxic aqueous environment;(7)Na-poor water;(8)highly diversified environments,and(9)cyclic conditions,such as dayto-night,hot-to-cold etc.Based on these nine requirements,we evaluate previously proposed locations for the origin of Earth’s life,including:(1)Darwin’s"warm little pond",leading to a"prebiotic soup"for life;(2)panspermia or Neo-panspermia(succession model of panspermia);(3)transportation from/through Mars;(4)a deepsea hydrothermal system;(5)an on-land subduct ion-zone hot spring,and(6)a geyser systems driven by a natural nuclear reactor.We conclude that location(6)is the most ideal candidate for the o rigin point for Earth’s life because of its efficiency in continuously supplying both the energy and the necessary materials for life,thereby maintaining the essential"cradle"for its initial development.We also emphasize that falsifiable working hypothesis provides an important tool to evaluate one of the biggest mysteries of the universe-the origin of life.

Remaining useful life prediction for a nonlinear multi-degradation system with public noise

To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and these parts or components are working in the same environment, thus the degradations of these parts or components will be influenced by common factors. To describe such a phenomenon in degradations, a multi-degradation model with public noise is proposed. To identify the degradation states and the unknown parameters, an iterative estimation method is proposed by using the Kalman filter and the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm. Next, with known thresholds,the RUL of each degradation can be predicted by using the first hitting time(FHT). In addition, the RUL of the whole system can be obtained by a Copula function. Finally, a practical case is used to demonstrate the method proposed.

Carbon and Water Footprint Evaluation of 120Wp Rural Household Photovoltaic System: Case Study

This study uses the Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to evaluate the magnitude of the environmental impact, in terms of global warming potential, and water footprint throughout the 20 years of useful life of a rural electrical energy concession comprised of 120Wp Households photovoltaic systems (HPS) in the isolated communities of San Martin, in the Peruvian Amazon region. On the other hand, due to the particular conditions of the system (installation, operation, maintenance, monthly tariff collection), it is necessary to know its real impact and sustainability;not only through the aforementioned environmental impact indicators, but also by energy intensity values required by the system throughout its life cycle. Therefore, this paper used the Cumulative energy demand (CED) method to determine the amount of energy taken from natural resources for each process involved in the LCA and calculated with this, i.e., the Energy Payback Time (EPBT) of the whole system. Likewise, the HPS has been environmentally compared to other case studies and the Peruvian Energy Mix, revealing a lower impact in the latter case and results within the range for stand-alone systems. Besides, the HPS shows a strong relation between energy production and O&M condition. Additionally, this study allows a further promotion of the use of this type of system in isolated areas, as well as the diversification of electricity generation in Peru.

Life Prediction Based on Transient Dynamics Analysis of Van Semi-trailer with Air Suspension System

The early fatigue damage in the van-body of the semi-trailer is often caused by the unique mechanical characteristics and the dynamic impact of the loads.The traditional finite element method with static strength analysis cannot support the fatigue design of van-body;thus,the dynamics analysis should be adopted for the endurance performance.The accurate dynamics model to describe the transient impacts of all kinds of uneven road and the proper system transfer functions to calculate the load transfer effects from tire to van-body are two critical factors for transient dynamics analysis.In order to evaluate the dynamic performance,the dynamics model of the trailer with the air suspension is brought forward.Then the analysis method of the power spectral density (PSD) is set up to study the transient responses of the road dynamic impacts.The transient responses transferred from axles to van-body are calculated,such as dynamic stress,dynamic RMS acceleration,and dynamic load factors.Based on the above dynamic responses,the fatigue life of van-body is predicted with the finite element analysis (FEA) method.Applying the test parameters of the trailer with air suspension,the simulation system with Matlab/Simulink is constructed to describe the dynamic responses of the impacts of the tested PSD of the vehicle axles,and then the fatigue life is predicted with FEA method.The simulated results show that the vibration level of the van-body with air suspension is reduced and the fatigue life is improved.The real vehicle tests on different roads are carried out,and the test results validate the accuracy of the simulation system.The proposed fatigue life prediction method is effective for the virtual design of auto-body.

The Study of Contact Pressure Analyses and Prediction of Dynamic Fatigue Life for Linear Guideways System

The application of the linear guideways is very extensive, such as automation equipment, heavy-duty carry equipment, heavy-cut machining tool, CNC grinding machine, large-scale planning machine and machining center with the demand of high rigidity and heavy load. By means of the study of contact behavior between the roller/guideway and roller/slider, roller type linear guideways can improve the machining accuracy. The goal of this paper is to construct the fatigue life model of the linear guideway, with the help of the contact mechanics of rollers. In beginning, the analyses of the rigidity of a single roller compressed between guideway and slider was conducted. Then, the normal contact pressure of linear guideways was obtained by using the superposition method, and verified by the FEM software (ANSYS workbench). Finally, the bearing life theory proposed by Lundberg and Palmgren was used to describe the contact fatigue life.

A Life System Tuning Model

OBJECTIVE: To establish a "life system tuning model", which will provide theoretical and methodological basis to solve various medical problems such as the diagnosis and treatment of complex diseases. METHODS: First of all, by using the approaches of systems biology, bioinformatics, and systems engineering, we set DNA as the center of this model, which severs as a bridge linking the characteristics of a disease with the pharmacological properties of the treating medicine. Secondly, the model shows how to employ molecular markers to dissect the pharmacological property of the drug, and the relation between the pharmacological property of the drug and its clinical administration.Also demonstrates how to discover therapeutic targets and to develop targeted medicine based on the biochemical features of the patients, which reflect their physiological and pathological body environment. Finally, the model uses systems biology data to determine molecular mechanisms underlying the disease and subtype, then employ precision methods to adjust the function of some master molecules. RESULTS: Based on the genetic information, this model integrates the diagnostic information from Western medicine and the disease pattern classification of TCM that is generated from the four diagnostic methods of "inspection, auscultation and olfaction, inquiry and pulse-taking and palpation". This model also integrates various disease intervention approaches including physical methods, chemical methods, and psychological methods. CONCLUSIONS: The establishment of this model provides a basis for personalized treatment of disease using various methods, for the protection and exploration of various natural resources used in TCM, and for the standardization of TCM.

Design and Implementation of the Life Meteorological Index Forecasting System of Wuhu City

Based on the domestic and foreign related research methods,the life meteorological index forecasting system of Wuhu City was compiled using database and network as well as computer language. The system realized the automation process for the generation of life index forecasting products from local situation of Wuhu City and forecasting data,which could get the latest service products dispensing with manual intervention. The development of the system not only made the operation process of the life meteorological index of Wuhu City more time-saving and efficient,but also made the results more scientific and rigorous.

典型钢桥面铺装体系生命周期碳足迹分析

为了量化钢桥面铺装体系的碳排放量,应用基于过程的生命周期评价方法分析了钢桥面铺装体系的生命周期碳足迹.从材料生产、施工建造、运营管理、维修养护、废弃处置和运输6个过程构建了钢桥面铺装体系碳排放的生命周期清单数据库,采用国际平整度指数建立铺装层行驶质量衰减下的碳排放预估模型,利用SMUO仿真软件进行交通延误仿真获取相关参数以建立交通延误的碳排放模型,建立了相应的碳足迹量化框架和模型,同时对下层EA(环氧)+上层SMA(沥青玛蹄脂)典型铺装体系进行了实例分析.结果表明,维修养护和运营管理阶段贡献了碳排放总量的近80%,交通延误导致的额外碳排放约达到了碳排放总量的24%,固化剂、喷砂除锈等材料或施工工艺也分别贡献了碳排放总量的8.11%和5.42%.

基于SARIMA和SVR组合模型的转向架系统寿命评估

随着地铁运营时间和里程的增加,地铁车辆逐渐接近其理论寿命,为确保车辆运行安全性,需对其重要子系统进行健康状态及剩余寿命评估。文中选取车辆转向架系统作为研究对象,提出了一种基于协方差优选法的季节性回归移动平均(SARIMA)和支持向量回归(SVR)的组合模型对转向架寿命进行评估。首先,将车辆转向架系统历史故障率转化为健康指数,然后基于协方差优选法将SARIMA和SVR进行赋权组合,根据转向架系统历史健康指数进行预测,最后建立历史和预测的健康指数与运行时间的数学模型,分析得到转向架系统的剩余寿命。以某地铁车辆转向架系统为例进行算例分析及验证,结果表明组合模型可更准确地预测其健康状态,为有关维修部门开展维修维护策略提供理论依据,估计得出其剩余寿命,为车辆寿命后期退役及延寿决策提供理论数据分析支撑。

航空发动机燃油系统部件寿命建模研究

为解决燃油系统部件可靠性难以估计的问题,收集了燃油系统重要部件燃油泵组件、液压机械装置、燃油流量传感器、燃油喷嘴的工作时间数据,针对不同部件的工作时间分别绘制Weibull概率图,用三参数相关系数优化法对Weibull分布模型进行参数估计,并依据参数估计值得到不同部件的可靠度函数、失效率函数及故障概率密度函数,最后对燃油系统部件进行可靠性评估与分析。结果表明:航空发动机燃油系统部件作为一种复杂的机械电子系统,Weibull分布模型可有效评估其使用寿命,可用于对航空发动机燃油系统部件进行可靠性分析。

A Life Evaluation System and its Application to Mining Machinery Equipment

Based on analyzing the mining equipment life evaluation theoretical system,the equipment life evaluation target system of the mining machinery is put forward taking the economic life,security life,reliability life and technical life as the targets.Then,the structure and model of the mining equipment life evaluation system are established and prepared for the realization of the system theoretically.Taking hydraulic support as the research object,the life evaluation system of hydraulic support is established and practice shows that the life evaluation system is feasible.

基于综合贡献率的舰船装备体系寿命评估

为了更科学地预测装备寿命,提升装备的作战效益,从装备对体系的“综合贡献率”视角出发,探究了舰船装备“体系寿命”的评估方法。首先,基于作战环理论和非线性结构方程模型,引入二次交互项,构建舰船装备体系作战能力的指标体系,建立了体系作战效能的评估模型;然后,运用阈值法建立了舰船装备体系的复杂网络模型,基于拓扑特征统计值,构建了舰船装备体系网络结构特征的指标体系,将层次分析法与熵权法相结合来计算指标权重;最后,提出了舰船装备体系综合贡献率、体系寿命的定义和数学模型,并以航母编队体系对抗为算例,通过实验仿真数据,验证了模型和方法的可行性和有效性。

系统思维在载人潜水器设计中的应用

系统思维以及系统方法论在复杂巨系统的设计上有着极大优势。载人潜水器作为一种大型装备,其设计过程中大量采用了系统方法论。本文对载人潜水器的组成、功能等进行介绍,对系统思维和系统方法论应用于载人潜水器设计的必要性进行分析,对常见的系统方法论进行介绍。并结合具体示例,从载人潜水器总体、载人潜水器分系统之间、载人潜水器分系统自身等层面,对载人潜水器设计过程中所采用的系统方法进行介绍。最后,以生命支持分系统为例,从该系统的运行时长及故障数量角度出发,验证系统思维和系统方法论在该系统的设计过程中发挥的作用。

Construction of life cycle assessment software system platform

There has not been life cycle assessment (LCA) software applicable to China's products. To faciliate the development of LCA software system in China, we built an object-oriented LCA software system plantform based on LCA international standards ISO 14040 to ISO 14043 and the commonness of diverse products. The system includes six modules: disassembly module, data collection module, arithmetic module, drawing module, database module and control module. It evaluates all economic and environmental impacts during the whole life cycle of a product. The integrated life cycle inventory database system allows dynamic expansion, which makes the effort required for data collection reduce with the increase of the system's application. With the improvement of human environmental-awareness, the demand of environment-friendly products is increasing, and ecological design of products has become a critical part in products development. Consummation of the LCA software system will provide a powerful tool for designing and developing Chinese ecological products.

基于动态可重构电池网络的大规模退役动力电池梯次利用储能系统运行性能评估

退役动力电池因其一致性差、安全性薄弱等缺陷在梯次利用时面临巨大挑战。动态可重构电池网络(dynamic reconfigurable battery network,DRBN)能够有效提高退役动力电池梯次利用储能系统的一致性和安全性。目前DRBN储能系统已经进入工程应用阶段,然而现有的研究缺少对大规模DRBN储能系统的运行性能评估。为此,以实际运行的大规模退役动力电池梯次利用储能系统作为分析对象,选取储能系统中80个DRBN的1个月运行数据进行分析。从运行工况、均衡效果、薄弱辨识三个方面验证了DRBN储能系统对电池模组一致性的提升效果。数据分析表明,90%的DRBN一致性良好,且其他一致性较差的DRBN都能够被准确辨识。

Inference and optimal design on step-stress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system with masked data

Under Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censoring, this paper discusses statistical inference and optimal design on stepstress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system in presence of masked data. It is assumed that the lifetime of the component in hybrid systems follows independent and identical modified Weibull distributions. The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs)of the unknown parameters, acceleration factor and reliability indexes are derived by using the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and the approximate confidence intervals are obtained based on normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of MLEs of model parameters. Moreover,two bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed by using the parametric bootstrap method. The optimal time of changing stress levels is determined under D-optimality and A-optimality criteria.Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate the proposed procedures.