The Impact of Nonlinear Stability and Instability on the Validity of the Tangent Linear Model

The impact of nonlinear stability and instability on the validity of tangent linear model (TLM) is investigated by comparing its results with those produced by the nonlinear model (NLM) with the identical initial perturbations. The evolutions of different initial perturbations superposed on the nonlinearly stable and unstable basic flows are examined using the two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic models of double periodic-boundary condition and rigid boundary condition. The results indicate that the valid time period of TLM, during which TLM can be utilized to approximate NLM with given accuracy, varies with the magnitudes of the perturbations and the nonlinear stability and instability of the basic flows. The larger the magnitude of the perturbation is, the shorter the valid time period. The more nonlinearly unstable the basic flow is, the shorter the valid time period of TLM. With the double—periodic condition the valid period of the TLM is shorter than that with the rigid—boundary condition. Key words Nonlinear stability and instability - Tangent linear model (TLM) - Validity This work was supported by the National Key Basic Research Project “Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Synoptic Disasters in China” (No.G1998040910) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.49775262 and No.49823002).

The Improvement Made by a Modified TLM in 4DVAR with a Geophysical Boundary Layer Model

The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows longer. Consequently, the related 4—D variational data assimilation problems could be difficult to solve. A modified tangent linear model is built on the Mellor-Yamada turbulent closure (level 2.5) for 4-D variational data assimilation. For oceanic mixed layer model settings, the modified tangent linear model produces better finite amplitude, nonlinear perturbation than the full and simplified tangent linear models when the integration time is longer than one day. The corresponding variational data assimilation performances based on the adjoint of the modified tangent linear model are also improved compared with those adjoints of the full and simplified tangent linear models.

Finite-Time Normal Mode Disturbances and Error Growth During Southern Hemisphere Blocking

The structural organization of initially random errors evolving in abarotropic tangent linear model, with time-dependent basic states taken from analyses, is examinedfor cases of block development, maturation and decay in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere duringApril, November, and December 1989. The statistics of 100 evolved errors are studied for six-dayperiods and compared with the growth and structures of fast growing normal modes and finite-timenormal modes (FTNMs). The amplification factors of most initially random errors are slightly lessthan those of the fastest growing FTNM for the same time interval. During their evolution, thestandard deviations of the error fields become concentrated in the regions of rapid dynamicaldevelopment, particularly associated with developing and decaying blocks. We have calculatedprobability distributions and the mean and standard deviations of pattern correlations between eachof the 100 evolved error fields and the five fastest growing FTNMs for the same time interval. Themean of the largest pattern correlation, taken over the five fastest growing FTNMs, increases withincreasing time interval to a value close to 0.6 or larger after six days. FTNM 1 generally, but notalways, gives the largest mean pattern correlation with error fields. Corresponding patterncorrelations with the fast growing normal modes of the instantaneous basic state flow aresignificant' but lower than with FTNMs. Mean pattern correlations with fast growing FTNMs increasefurther when the time interval is increased beyond six days.