Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China

This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature,society,economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002,we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively,where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity,0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,where water resources carrying capacity is much higher,and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongo-lian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole,the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus,we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.

Wavelet Analysis and Nonparametric Test for Climate Change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang During 1959-2006

Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.

Evolution Stages of Oasis Economy and Its Dependence on Natural Resources in Tarim River Basin

This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the Tarim River Basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of gravity model, and index system of the regional central city are used to probe the evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy. The study finds that: 1) The economic centre of gravity, whose variation track during this period follows linear rate law, was moving from headstream to middle reaches of the Tarim River. 2) Positive spatial autocorrelation which showed a waving and ascending trend of regional economy was significant and the neighbor effect of regional economic growth was strengthened continuously. 3) The regional economic centre was located in Hotan City before 1980, moved to Aksu City during the 1980s and to Korla City after 1990. We conclude that above all, during the recent four decades the evolution of the oasis economy in this region has gone through three stages: a traditional agriculture stage (before 1980), oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage (1980–1990) and oasis energy industry stage (after 1990). Furthermore, the dependence degree of the oasis economy on natural resources in different stages are studied by using dominance index, regression model, and grey relation method, which shows that an oasis econ- omy highly depends on water resources in the oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage while it de- pends more on mineral resources such as oil and natural gas during the oasis energy industry stage.

Spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability in the Tarim River Basin,Northwest China

As the largest inland river basin of China,the Tarim River Basin(TRB),known for its various natural resources and fragile environment,has an increased risk of ecological crisis due to the intensive exploitation and utilization of water and land resources.Since the Ecological Water Diversion Project(EWDP),which was implemented in 2001 to save endangered desert vegetation,there has been growing evidence of ecological improvement in local regions,but few studies have performed a comprehensive ecological vulnerability assessment of the whole TRB.This study established an evaluation framework integrating the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method to estimate the ecological vulnerability of the TRB covering climatic,ecological,and socioeconomic indicators during 2000-2017.Based on the geographical detector model,the importance of ten driving factors on the spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability was explored.The results showed that the ecosystem of the TRB was fragile,with more than half of the area(57.27%)dominated by very heavy and heavy grades of ecological vulnerability,and 28.40%of the area had potential and light grades of ecological vulnerability.The light grade of ecological vulnerability was distributed in the northern regions(Aksu River and Weigan River catchments)and western regions(Kashgar River and Yarkant River catchments),while the heavy grade was located in the southern regions(Kunlun Mountains and Qarqan River catchments)and the Mainstream catchment.The ecosystems in the western and northern regions were less vulnerable than those in the southern and eastern regions.From 2000 to 2017,the overall improvement in ecological vulnerability in the whole TRB showed that the areas with great ecological improvement increased by 46.11%,while the areas with ecological degradation decreased by 9.64%.The vegetation cover and potential evapotranspiration(PET)were the obvious driving factors,explaining 57.56% and 21.55%of the changes in ecological vulnerability across the TRB,respectively.In terms of ecological vulnerability grade changes,obvious spatial differences were observed in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the TRB due to the different vegetation and hydrothermal conditions.The alpine source region of the TRB showed obvious ecological improvement due to increased precipitation and temperature,but the alpine meadow of the Kaidu River catchment in the Middle Tianshan Mountains experienced degradation associated with overgrazing and local drought.The improved agricultural management technologies had positive effects on farmland ecological improvement,while the desert vegetation in oasis-desert ecotones showed a decreasing trend as a result of cropland reclamation and intensive drought.The desert riparian vegetation in the lower reaches of the Tarim River was greatly improved due to the implementation of the EWDP,which has been active for tens of years.These results provide comprehensive knowledge about ecological processes and mechanisms in the whole TRB and help to develop environmental restoration measures based on different ecological vulnerability grades in each sub-catchment.

Evolvement Characteristics of Population and Economic Gravity Centers in Tarim River Basin,Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang,China

Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.

Spatial Effect of Mineral Resources Exploitation on Urbanization:A Case Study of Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China

Mineral resources exploitation significantly affects the spatial structure and evolutive trend of urbanization in arid areas.In this study,the spatial autocorrelation method and the spatial computation model were used to investigate the spatial impacts of mineral resources excavation and processing on comprehensive level of urbanization in the Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China for the years of 2000,2006 and 2008.The results are as follows:1)There was a spatial correlation of the development of mineral resources industry and the comprehensive level of urbanization in 2006 and 2008,with the spatial concentration trend rising significantly in 2006 and decreasing in 2008.2)The patterns of local spatial concentration of mineral resources industry and of the comprehensive level of urbanization were relatively stable,and the two patterns showed signs of spatial correlationship.The higher was the degree of the concentration of mineral resources industry,the stronger was its impact on the spatial clustering of urbanization.3)In 2000, mineral resources excavation and processing had a significant positive impact on the comprehensive level of urbanization in the region but not in its adjacent regions.However,in 2008,mineral resources excavation and processing significantly raised the comprehensive level of urbanization not only in the region but also in its neighboring regions.This research demonstrates that the development of mineral resources industry can strongly affect the trends and spatial patterns of urbanization.

Assessment of river basin habitat quality and its relationship with disturbance factors: A case study of the Tarim River Basin in Northwest China

The status of regional biodiversity is determined by habitat quality.The effective assessment of habitat quality can help balance the relationship between economic development and biodiversity conservation.Therefore,this study used the InVEST model to conduct a dynamic evaluation of the spatial and temporal changes in habitat quality of the Tarim River Basin in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China by calc ulating the degradation degree levels for habitat types that were caused by threat factors from 1990 to 2018(represented by four periods of 1990,2000,2010 and 2018).Specifically,we used spatial autocorrelation analysis and Getis-Ord Gi*analysis to divide the study area into three heterogeneous units in terms of habitat quality:cold spot areas,hot spot areas and random areas.Hemeroby index,population density,gross domestic product(GDP),altitude and distance from water source(DWS)were then chosen as the main disturbance factors.Linear correlation and spatial regression models were subsequently used to analyze the influences of disturbance factors on habitat quality.The results demonstrated that the overall level of habitat quality in the TRB was poor,showing a continuous degradation state.The intensity of the negative correlation between habitat quality and Hemeroby index was proven to be strongest in cold spot areas,hot spot areas and random areas.The spatial lag model(SLM)was better suited to spatial regression analysis due to the spatial dependence of habitat quality and disturbance factors in heterogeneous units.By analyzing the model,Hemeroby index was found to have the greatest impact on habitat quality in the studied four periods(1990,2000,2010 and2018).The research results have potential guiding significance for the formulation of reasonable management policies in the TRB as well as other river basins in arid areas.

Spatial difference features and organization optimization of cities and towns in Tarim River Basin

This paper analyzes the urban spatial structure of Tarim River Basin from the perspectives of urbanization, urban density, grading scales and spatial evolution patterns, using geographical theories and methods, such as fractal theory, principle component analysis, urbanization imbalance index, urban scale imbalance indicator, and urban spatial interaction. The results show that the urban spatial structure displays balanced distribution in the overall pattern, while an imbalanced distribution in each region. The development of town pattern tends to be gathering to the central towns in the oasis of Tarim River Basin and a development axis has begun to form along the southern Xinjiang railway. Based on the division of urban hinterland, and the development characteristics of oasis economy, this paper puts forward an urban spatial organization model. This model uses 'breakpoint model' and divides Tarim River Basin into five urban clusters: Korla urban cluster, Kuqa urban cluster, Aksu urban cluster, Kashgar urban cluster and Hotan urban cluster. As a conclusion, this article puts forward an overall framework of urban spatial organization in Tarim River Basin: 'one axis, double core, and five groups'.

Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation net primary productivity and its relationship with meteorological factors in the Tarim River Basin of China from 2001 to 2020 based on the Google Earth Engine

Vegetation growth status is an important indicator of ecological security.The Tarim River Basin is located in the inland arid region of Northwest China and has a highly fragile ecological environment.Assessing the vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)of the Tarim River Basin can provide insights into the vegetation growth variations in the region.Therefore,based on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)cloud platform,we studied the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation NPP in the Tarim River Basin(except for the eastern Gobi and Kumutag deserts)from 2001 to 2020 and analyzed the correlations between vegetation NPP and meteorological factors(air temperature and precipitation)using the Sen slope estimation method,coefficient of variation,and rescaled range analysis method.In terms of temporal characteristics,vegetation NPP in the Tarim River Basin showed an overall fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020,with the smallest value of 118.99 g C/(m2•a)in 2001 and the largest value of 155.07 g C/(m2•a)in 2017.Regarding the spatial characteristics,vegetation NPP in the Tarim River Basin showed a downward trend from northwest to southeast along the outer edge of the study area.The annual average value of vegetation NPP was 133.35 g C/(m2•a),and the area with annual average vegetation NPP values greater than 100.00 g C/(m2•a)was 82,638.75 km2,accounting for 57.76%of the basin.The future trend of vegetation NPP was dominated by anti-continuity characteristic;the percentage of the area with anti-continuity characteristic was 63.57%.The area with a significant positive correlation between vegetation NPP and air temperature accounted for 53.74%of the regions that passed the significance test,while the area with a significant positive correlation between vegetation NPP and precipitation occupied 98.68%of the regions that passed the significance test.Hence,the effect of precipitation on vegetation NPP was greater than that of air temperature.The results of this study improve the understanding on the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation NPP in the Tarim River Basin and the impact of meteorological factors on vegetation NPP.

A method for choice of optimum scale on land use monitoring in Tarim River Basin

Optimal scale is one of the important issues in ecology and geography.Based on land-use data of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang of China in the 1950s,regarding the area of land use types as the parameter in scale selecting,the histograms of the patches in area are charted.Then,by reinforcing the normalized scale variances(NSV) with 3 landscape indi-ces,the scale characteristics of land use in the Tarim River Basin can be summarized.(1) NSV in the Tarim River up to a maximum at scale of 1:50,000 which is considered appropriate for the Tarim River.(2) Diversity indices of saline land are consistent with NSV's.Diversity indices and NSV of sandy land showed that the appropriate scale is in the same scale domain.There is a significant difference between diversity indices and NSV of forestland and shrub-land.(3) Fractal dimension of sandy land and saline land showed a hierarchical structure at a scale of 1:10,000.Fractal dimension of forestland and shrubland are distributed under the same hierarchical structure in the region.

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON FLASH FLOODS IN TARIM RIVER BASIN

Flash floods are the important events of the hydrological regime of rivers in arid areas. In the Tarim River, northwestern china, flash flood are being monitored. The observed data and investigation demonstrate the difference in time, place, fraquency and intensity of their occurrences. In this paper two main flash fled are put forward, they are rainstorm flash flood (RFF) and glacier lake outburst flood(GLOF). Two cases of flash flood in the two tributaries of the Tarim River presented in this paper. It analyses and compares the causes and the development of the two kinds of flash floods.Through further discussion about influence of flash floods on the main channel of the Tarirn River, conclusion can be drawn that the greatest flood in record of the main channel come from the GLOF of the upper reaches of the Kunmalik River, especially augmented by great ablation flood. Finally the advantages and disadvantages from flash floods to the environment of the catchment are demonstrated in the paper.

Spatio-temporal analysis of urbanization and land and water resources efficiency of oasis cities in Tarim River Basin

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and inter- plays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran＇s I index, Getis-Ord Gi＊ index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. （1） Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency. （2） Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajecto- ries, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them. （3） The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area. （4） Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area. （5） The degree of coordinated development of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.

Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961–2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China

Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from national meteorological stations, 90 m resolution DEM and a digital vector map of modern glaciers from the Chinese Glacier Inventory, the glacier mass balance and glacier runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China, were estimated based on a monthly degree-day model for 1961–2006. The results suggest that the modified monthly degree-day model can simulate the long-term changes in glacier mass balance and glacier runoff, which have been confirmed by short-term observation data and other results in literatures. The characteristics and trends of mass balance and glacier runoff variation were analyzed. It was found that the mean annual glacier mass balance during 1961–2006 was ?139.2 mm per year and the cumulative mass balance over the 46 year period was ?6.4 m in the TRB. The glacier mass balance displayed a clear decreasing trend over the entire TRB during 1961–2006. The average annual glacier runoff in the TRB was 144.16×108 m3 for 1961–2006. The results also show that glacier runoff has increased in the last 46 years, especially since the 1990s with 85.7% of the increased river flow being derived from the increased glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass. Over the entire TRB, glacier runoff accounts for 41.5% of the total river flow during 1961–2006. The impact of glacier runoff on river flow has increased in the TRB as a result of glacier shrinkage.

The utilization of water resources and its variation tendency in Tarim River Basin

水资源有效利用在 Tarim 是生态的改进和经济开发的关键河盆。在整个河盆分析水资源利用和它的变化趋势是必要的。在八个气象学的车站和十五个水文学车站基于监视数据和形成，时间系列的方法，回归分析被用于在特别在源流和主流的区域分析水资源利用和变化趋势最近 10 年。量的结果显示源流区域的流入在过去的 40 年里有一个增加的趋势到不同程度。增加趋势的流量从 1994 ～ 2002 是更重要的，它证明在源流的水资源条件在一个优点。然而，与 25 的体积在水的条件下面增加#

A SYSTEMATIC STUDY ON LAND AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE TARIM RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN,XINJIANG PROVINCE,CHINA

A Systematic Study on Land (SSL), aiming at the investigation of the land complex, isone of the important parts of integrated physical geography. With systematic theory as guid-ance, the dissertaton carries out the comprehensive and systematic study of a series ofsubsystems like land classification, land structure analysis, comprehensive physicalregionalization, land evaluation, reasonable planning of land utilization as well as popula-

Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years

The relationship between climate change and water resources in the Tarim River was analyzed by combining the temperature,precipitation and streamflow data from 1957 to 2007 from the four headstreams of the Tarim River （Aksu,Hotan,Yarkant and Kaidu rivers） in the study area.The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature,precipitation and streamflow were studied using correlation analysis and partial correlations analysis.Holt double exponential smoothing was used to fit the trends between streamflow and the two climatic factors of Aksu River,Hotan River and Yarkant River.The streamflow of the main stream was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model （ARIMA） modeling by the method of time series analysis.The results show that the temperature experienced a trend of monotonic rising.The precipitation and runoff of the four headstreams of the Tarim River increased,while the inflow to the headstreams increased and the inflow into the Tarim River decreased.Changes of temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on runoff into the four headstreams of the Tarim River： the precipitation had a positive impact on water flow in the Aksu River,Hotan River and Kaidu River,while the temperature had a positive impact on water flow in the Yarkant River.The results of Holt double exponential smoothing showed that the correlation between the independent variable and dependent variable was relatively close after the model was fitted to the headstreams,of which only the runoff and temperature values of Hotan River showed a significant negative correlation.The forecasts by the ARIMA model for 50 years of annual runoff at the Allar station followed the pattern of the measured data for the same years.The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed a decreasing tendency in the Tarim River flow of 3.07% every ten years.The results showed that global warming accelerated the water recharge process of the headstreams.The special hydrological characteristics of the arid area determined the significant association between streamflow and the two climatic factors studied.Strong glacier retreat is likely to bring a series of flood disasters within the study area.

The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River.Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002.The main findings are as follows:(1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are com-plex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics.(2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan,Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral,implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions,and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables.(3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic.The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002,but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.

Sedimentary facies of the Silurian tide-dominated paleo-estuary of the Tazhong area in the Tarim Basin

As the relative sea-level rose, a paleo-estuary was formed by the marine inundation of the braided river incised valley during the period of the lower sub-member of the upper member of the Kalpingtage. formation of the Silurian in the Tarim Basin, west China. Sandstone-mudstone rhythmite, tidal structures and bimodal cross-bedding are common in these deposits, indicating that tides played a significant role in generating the sedimentary structures and the estuary type was tide-dominated. Five depositional facies were grouped： tidal river, sandy and muddy subtidal flat, tidal flat, tidal bar, tidal channel on the basis of lithology, electric properties, rhythmicity, sedimentary structure, fossil and the contact relationship. The sediment distribution showing first fining seaward and subsequent coarsening seaward from head to mouth, implies the two sediment sources in the paleo-estuary. The paleo-estuary of the Tarim Basin is very different from other representative estuaries. The most important distinction is that there are two adjacent estuaries joined by tidal flat onshore and by sandy and muddy subtidal flat in the sea at the same time, while the others only architecture model for the tide-dominated estuary. have one, So the Tazhong paleo-estuary shows a good

Geochemical characteristics and oil family classi-fication of crude oils from the Markit Slope in the southwest of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

Based on the chromatograms of oils and saturated hydrocarbons, biomarkers and stable carbon isotope analyses, the geochemical characteristics and oil family Classification of crude oils from the Markit Slope in the southwest of the Tarim Basin were investigated. The results showed that crude oils from the Markit Slope are divided into two oil family Classification. Oils collected from the Bashituo oilfield in the western part of the Markit Slope are characterized by high contents of tricyclic terpanes, pregnane, and homopregnane, low contents of garmmacerane (G/H<0.20), dibenzofuran, and methyl cyclohexane, and light stable carbon isotopic values (the δ13C values of satu-rated hydrocarbons and aromatic components are less than -34‰ and -32‰, respectively), with the distribution type of steranes being C27>>C28<C29. Condensate oils collected from the Hetian River gasfield in the eastern part of the Markit Slope are characterized by low contents of tricyclic terpanes, pregnane, and homopregnane, high contents of garmmacerane (0.20<G/H<0.36), dibenzofuran, and methyl cyclohexane, and relatively heavy carbon isotopic values (δ13C of saturated hydrocarbons and aromatic components (> -32‰ and -30.6‰, respectively), with the distribution type of steranes being C27>C28<<C29. In addition, oils from Well Qu 1 have some characteristics similar to those of the above oils, with some special characteristics including high contents of β-carotenes and special distribution of steranes (C27<C28 <C29).

塔里木河流域夏季降水年际和年代变化的环流异常

基于1961-2020年夏季(6-8月)NCAR/NCEP再分析资料和塔里木河流域38个气象站降水资料,使用5 a滑动平均分离出该流域夏季降水年代际和年际变化,选出年际变化典型的干年和湿年与年代际变化的干期(1963-1986年)和湿期(1989-2018年),分析与这两种时间尺度变化相关联的大气环流异常。结果表明:影响年代际变化的大气环流异常主要是大西洋和欧亚大陆的对流层位势高度场从西北至东南交替出现反气旋和气旋距平环流。在湿期,分别在蒙古国和中亚的反气旋和气旋距平环流加强,塔里木河流域东部和西部分别出现明显的东风和西南风异常,来自西北太平洋和印度洋的水汽增多;在干期则相反。影响年际变化的大气环流异常主要是:在湿年,塔里木河流域之外的西北部和东北部的对流层都为显著的反气旋距平环流,塔里木河流域西部对流层为气旋距平环流,流域东部对流层为反气旋和气旋距平环流影响区;从南北方向向塔里木河流域输送的水汽增多,北风的水汽输送增加较多,南风的水汽输送增加较少,来自北冰洋和印度洋水汽增多;在干年则相反。