Streamflow trends and hydrological response to climatic change in Tarim headwater basin

This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958-2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.

Hydrological Mann-Kendal Multivariate Trends Analysis in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Hydrological events should be described through several correlated variables, so multivariate HFA has gained popularity and become an active research field during recent years. However, at present multivariate HFA mainly focuses directly on fitting the frequency distribution without confirming whether the assumptions are satisfied. Neglecting testing these assumptions could get severely wrong frequency distribution. This paper uses multivariate Mann-Kendal testing to detect the multivariate trends of annual flood peak and annual maximum 15 day volume for four control hydrological stations in the?Upper Yangtze River Basin. Results indicate that multivariate test could detect the trends of joint variables, whereas univariate tests can only detect the univariate trends. Therefore, it is recommended to jointly apply univariate and multivariate trend tests to capture all the existing trends.

传统村落保护与发展评价体系构建与实证——以河南省黄河流域传统村落为例

以乡村地域系统理论为指导,结合大量调研工作实践,将传统村落视为由传统建筑、历史文化、资源环境、社会经济4个要素所构成的复杂乡村地域系统。在此基础上,遵循评价体系构建原则,参考层次分析法、五级记分法等方法,构建了包括4项准则和25个评价指标的传统村落保护与发展评价体系,对河南省黄河流域15个中国传统村落保护与发展的现状进行了评价检验,对部分传统村落进行了对比分析。结果表明:该评价体系具有数据易得、计算简便等特点,并具有较好的适用性和良好的效度。

Spatio-Temporal Variation Analysis of Precipitation during 1960-2008 in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Long-term monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 at 17 rain stations are analyzed to explore spatio-temporal variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China, using anomaly analysis, simple linear regressive technique, Mann-Kendall trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform. The results indicate that: (1) increasing precipitation trend is observed in summer and winter, while decreasing precipitation trend is identified in spring and autumn, and the above mentioned precipitation trends are not statistically significant;(2) changing trend of the areal average annual precipitation is non-significantly increasing, and increasing trend happens in almost the whole basin except in western and south-eastern small parts;(3) the spatial distribution of the seasonal and annual precipitation anomalies between 1991-2008 and 1960-2008 is similar to that of seasonal and annual precipitation trend during 1960-2008;(4) three main time-frequency distributions are observed in annual precipitation series during 1960- 2008, and they are 18 - 26 years, 8 - 14 years and 2 - 8 years, respectively;accordingly, there are three main periods in annual precipitation series, and they are 11-year, 22-year and 5-year respectively. This result will be helpful for further research on availability, scientific management and assessment of the water resources of the Poyang Lake basin.

Runoff Characteristics of the Nen River Basin and its Cause

Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004,the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze variations in the characteristics and factors influencing runoff.Specifically,the general characteristics list as:The distribution of runoff was found to be uneven within a year,and the annual variation showed an overall decreasing trend.The abrupt change points of runoff were found to be in the early 1960s,middle 1980s and late 1990s.Multiple time scales analysis revealed three time-scale cycles,a long-term cycle of about 20-35 years with a scale center of 25 years,another cycle of about 8-15 years with a scale center of 11 years and a short-term cycle of about 5 years.Based on the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients figure of the 25-year time scale,it is preliminarily estimated that the Nen River Basin will enter a high flow period in 2013.The results obtained using various methods were consistent with each other.The physical causes of the results were also analyzed to confirm their accuracy.

B301试验区油井结蜡主控因素及对策

B301试验区位于H盆地,该试验区目前油井结蜡现象严重,防蜡效果较差,防蜡措施有效期较短,无法满足油井防蜡的需要,亟需找到影响油井结蜡的主控因素。针对上述问题,通过室内实验对产出液中的蜡质、胶质、沥青质和机械杂质含量进行测定。利用Olga数值模拟软件对温度、压力、流速进行模拟。研究表明:蜡质、沥青质、机械杂质含量以及温度、流速为影响B301试验区油井井筒结蜡的主控因素,影响程度强弱依次为蜡质、温度、沥青质、机械杂质、流速。研究成果可为B301试验区进一步高效开发提供理论与技术基础,为高含蜡油藏防蜡方法提供参考。

Assessing land use/land cover change impacts on the hydrology of Nyong River Basin, Cameroon

Uncontrolled land use land cover change(LULCC) is impacting watershed hydrology,particularly in tropical watersheds in developing countries. We assessed the extent of LULCC in the southern portion of the Nyong River basin through analysis of three land use maps in 1987, 2000 and2014. LULCC impact on hydrological variables of the Mbalmayo, Olama, Pont So’o, Messam, and Nsimi sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin were evaluated by using the linear regression modeling and the Mann-Kendall test. This study reveals that dense forest cover decreased by16%, young secondary forest increased by 18%,agricultural/cropland increased by 10%, and built-up area/bare soil increased by 3% from 1987 to 2014.The decrease in dense forest cover at 0.6% per year on average was driven by indiscriminate expansion of subsistence agricultural/cropland through shifting and fallow cultivation farming systems. Nonsignificant trends in total discharge, high flows, and low flows were observed in the large sub-watersheds of Mbalmayo and Olama from 1998 to 2013 with LULCC within the watershed. In contrast, significant decreasing trends in stream discharge(up to-5.1%and-5.9%), and significant increasing trends in high flows(up to 2.1% and 6.3%), respectively, were observed in the small sub-watersheds of Pont So’o and Messam from 1998 to 2013, particularly with increase in agricultural/cropland cover and decrease in dense forest cover. However, we found nonsignificant trends in mean annual discharge and low flows for all and whole watershed with LULCC. The results reveal spatially varying trends of stream discharge, low flows and high flows among the subwatersheds with LULCC within the study watershed.The results suggest that the impacts of LULCC on watershed hydrology are easily detected in small subwatersheds than in large sub-watersheds. Therefore,the magnitude of dense forest cover loss must be significantly greater than 16% to cause significant changes and common trends in the hydrology of the sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin. The Mann-Kendall and Regression approaches show appreciable potential for modelling the impacts of LULCC on the hydrology of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin and for informing forest management.

Spatial-temporal variations of vegetation cover in Yellow River Basin of China during 1998-2008

Using an integrated method combining wavelet analysis and non-parameter Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin based on SPOT-VEG images from 1998 to 2008 The results indicate： （1） Vegetation cover presented marked seasonal variation during the study period, with minima around winter and maxima in summer. The detail component D5 （with semi-period of 240 days） has presented a major contribution to the intra-armual variability. Forest vegetation presents a marked decreasing trend, while alpine shrubs, meadow, typical steppe, desert steppe, and forest （meadow） steppe vegetation all show a marked increasing trend. （2） Mean vegetation amount increased from the upper to lower reaches of the basin. It is low in the Ordos Plateau and Loess Plateau, and high in the southern Loess Plateau and the lower reaches. Amplitude of the annual phenological cycle pre- sents an opposite pattern in spatial distribution with that of the mean vegetation amount. （3） Vegetation cover presented a dominant positive inter-annual change trend, which implies that the eco-environment in the region has steadily improved. Only a few areas show a negative trend, which are located in the upper reaches and the southern Loess Plateau.

基于“3414”试验模型的四川盆地中部水稻氮磷钾肥效应研究

本研究采用“3414”肥料效应田间试验,旨在确定四川盆地中部资中县水稻的最佳施肥量,并构建高产施肥模型。通过设置氮、磷、钾3因素,每个因素4个水平,共14个处理,每个处理重复3次。结果表明:建立的三元二次肥料效应回归方程的相关系数(R^(2))为0.976。纯氮施用量为215.28 kg/hm^(2),五氧化二磷施用量为101.40 kg/hm^(2),氧化钾施用量为104.14 kg/hm^(2),水稻最大产量为7923.56 kg/hm^(2);纯氮最佳施用量为196.83 kg/hm^(2),五氧化二磷施用量为74.81 kg/hm^(2),氧化钾施用量为102.90 kg/hm^(2),水稻最佳产量为7867.96 kg/hm^(2)。建立的肥料效应模型可在四川盆地中部类似水稻产区推广,用于水稻生产上对施肥量的预测。

Extreme value analysis of streamflow time series in Poyang Lake Basin,China

Extreme meteorological and hydrological events may cause major disasters and heavy social and economic losses. Therefore, more and more studies have focused on extreme hydro-meteorological events in various climates and geographic regions. Based on nearly 50 years of observed records of the Poyang Lake Basin, the occurrence and changing trends of extreme streamflow indices, including the annual maximum flow, annual peak-over-threshold flows, and low flows, were analyzed for ten hydrological stations. The results indicate that most annual maximum flows occurred from April to July, highly attributed to the Southeast Asian summer monsoons, whereas the annual minimum flows were concentrated between January and February. As for the low flow indices （the annual minimum flow, annual minimum 7-d flow, and annual minimum 30-d flow）, a significant increasing trend was detected in most parts of the Poyang Lake Basin. The trends illustrate the potential effects of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle over the Poyang Lake Basin.

鄂尔多斯盆地页岩油水力压裂试验场建设概述及实践认识

借鉴北美HFTS成功经验,长庆油田围绕进一步提高单井产量目标,整体规划了三期水力压裂试验场HFFL建设。I期于2022年启动,2024年完成,是国内首个完整意义上的水力压裂试验场。I期重点围绕夹层性页岩油长71、长72储层,坚持“压前地质工程一体化设计、压中测试响应反演拟合、压后取心验证分析评价”的研究路径,综合应用光纤、双井微地震、井下电视、示踪剂及取心等10项16井次测试,系统开展人工裂缝形态、多簇起裂及产液贡献率等精细评价,主要认识包括:(1)页岩油压后地下裂缝类型多样,300 m取心过程中累计发现裂缝431条,其中压裂缝115条、层理缝239条;(2)裂缝复杂程度远超预期,人工裂缝总量远大于簇数,局部未严格按照最大主应力方向扩展,受到岩性、天然裂缝发育等综合影响,裂缝存在明显偏转、沟通、弯曲等现象;(3)水力裂缝缝长延伸较长,缝高整体受控,支撑剂在取心岩屑中广泛分布,裂缝面同样观察到支撑;(4)多簇100%起裂,但扩展过程呈动态变化,砂液分配差异大,光纤评价均一指数平均61.8%;(5)长期产剖动态跟踪显示,生产6个月后,多裂缝段与优质甜点段贡献逐渐凸显。综上,水力试验场对长庆页岩油重新认识油藏、缝控储量、裂缝、产量提供了更加准确科学的理论依据,对井网优化、开发技术政策制定以及体积压裂优化设计都具有十分重要的作用,同时也为国内水力压裂试验场建设发挥了示范引领作用。

The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.

两条轴线平行布置的泄洪洞出口联合消能工布置形式研究

针对芝瑞抽水蓄能电站下水库两条轴线平行布置的泄洪排沙洞,原设计方案出口联合消能工存在消能效果差的问题,通过选用单体正态水工模型,基于水力相似准则进行水工模型试验,对出口联合消能工的布置形式进行研究。试验实测数据表明,最终推荐方案可有效提高消能效率、改善水流流态、优化设计方案,并达到了减少工程投资的目的,有效地解决了轴线平行布置的泄洪洞出口联合消能问题。

1960—2019年永定河流域降水演化特征

基于永定河流域内及周边53个气象站1960—2019年逐日降水资料及其插值数据,采用多种变异诊断方法研判永定河流域降水演化特征,结果表明:1)年降水量存在下降趋势,夏季降水量下降趋势显著,春季、秋季、冬季降水量呈上升趋势;2)在空间上,年降水量在大部分地区呈不显著的下降趋势,官厅水库以下较小的范围呈显著下降趋势,春季、秋季和冬季降水量基本呈不显著上升趋势,仅在部分区域呈不显著下降趋势,夏季降水量与其他季节相反,在流域大部分范围呈下降趋势;3)降水要素存在突变性,突变后年降水量的变化为极小值增大、极大值减小,7—8月降水量的变化为整体降低。

风机安装船动力定位数值模拟和模型试验研究

以某典型风机安装船为例,在GeniE软件中对该型船舶主船体和桩腿进行结构建模,运用软件HydroD进行频域运动响应计算,再将计算结果作为输入参数运用OrcaFlex软件对船舶进行动力定位定点作业数值仿真分析。数值计算结果表明,在150~180°环境力方向下船舶定位效果最理想,一组推进器失效的工况下船舶仍能保持动力定位效果。因此针对船舶装载三套风机设备时处于150°和165°环境力方向的工况开展水池模型试验,并将实验结果和数值结果进行对比,为实际海上工程作业提供理论指导。

台兰河流域地下水人工回补适宜性评价及试验验证

地下水人工回补是管理含水层、调蓄水资源的重要方法,探究合理的适宜性评价方法是确定回补区域的基本工作。利用遥感数据和GIS技术,基于直觉模糊层次分析法(IFAHP),构建GIS-IFAHP决策模型,选取地下水位埋深、给水度、土壤质地、含水层渗透系数、地形坡度、土地利用/覆盖、与灌区距离、河网密度8个指标进行主观层次排序,获得各指标的综合主观权重,结合加权叠加分析法得到研究区地下水人工回补适宜性分区图,并在高适宜区内做地表入渗试验,分析地下水回补的可行性。结果表明:地下水回补低适宜区主要分布在细土平原区,占回补区总面积13.24%;中等适宜区主要分布在砾质平原中下部,占回补区面积29.48%;高适宜区主要位于砾质平原区中上部,占回补区总面积18.94%。地表渗库8 d内共回补水量1.54万m^(3),回补期间3眼观测孔水位平均稳定在14.95 m,地下水位平均累积抬升25.21 m。采用GIS-IFAHP决策模型,在地下水回补区域选择合理性上表现良好;干旱地区土地利用率较低且回补条件良好的倾斜砾质平原,通过地表入渗回补的方式能够有效地补充地下水。

黄河流域近40年土地利用/覆被时空变化特征

[目的]研究土地利用/覆被时空变化特征对于黄河流域土地资源保护与合理开发具有重要意义,可为黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展战略实施提供重要参考。[方法]基于黄河流域1980-2021逐年土地利用/覆被数据,采用Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验、地学信息图谱、标准差椭圆和重心迁移模型等方法,探究近40年黄河流域土地利用/覆被变化特征。[结果](1)1980-2021年林地、灌丛、水域、建设用地显著增加,耕地、草地、湿地显著减少。(2)流域土地利用/覆被变化时段可划分为1980-1992年,1993-2001年,2002-2012年,2013-2021年,数量结构逐渐呈现快速变化特点,建设用地、湿地和水域变化敏感。土地利用结构均衡度逐渐增强,呈现的阶段性变化与实施的重大战略措施关联性高,并与划分的阶段较符合。(3)流域中上游以2012-2021年和间歇变化型、耕地和草地的相互转换为主,下游以2001-2012年和2012-2021年变化型、耕地转为建设用地和草地为主。流域内宁夏北部、内蒙古东部及部分沿黄河水系分布的地区变化频繁。(4)湿地、水域和建设用地的重心向西迁移,分别呈现向西南集中分布、向东分散、向西北集中分布态势。[结论]土地利用结构在政策导向下总体趋势变好,未来应重点关注湿地以及土地利用变化频繁的地区。

大沽河流域水文情势变化研究

[目的]探究大沽河流域长时间序列下径流的变化趋势和周期特征,为大沽河流域的水资源管理和可持续发展提供理论参考。[方法]基于大沽河流域南村水文站1956—2020年和闸子水文站1956—2016年的实测径流资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验法分析多年径流量变化趋势和突变时间,采用Morlet连续复小波法分析了流域多年径流量的周期特征。[结果]大沽河流域多年径流量整体呈下降趋势,且呈现出汛期(6—9月)流量多、非汛期流量少的特点,流量峰值一般出现在8月。南村站径流于1976年发生突变,闸子站径流于1979年发生突变。大沽河流域径流量在多个时间尺度下均出现明显的周期变化,第一主周期在20 a左右,且在20世纪80年代之前周期震荡显著。[结论]大沽河流域长时间序列径流量呈现出显著下降的变化趋势,流域径流量在20世纪70年代发生突变,且存在不同时间尺度周期变化的特征,未来应加强径流变化机理研究。