Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change,and meanwhile,it is an urgent scientific issue need to be solved in agricultural ris...Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change,and meanwhile,it is an urgent scientific issue need to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline.This paper developed the methodology of flood catastrophe risk assessment,which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation,Monte Carlo simulation,the generalized extreme value distribution（GEV） fitting,and risk evaluation.Data on crop loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters,hectares affected by natural disasters,and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard equation.Monte Carlo simulation based on appropriate distribution was used to expand sample size to overcome the insufficiency of crop loss data.Block maxima model（BMM） approach based on the extreme value theory was for modeling the generalized extreme value distribution（GEV） of flood catastrophe loss,and then flood catastrophe risk at the provincial scale in China was calculated.The Type III Extreme distribution（Weibull） has a weighted advantage of modeling flood catastrophe risk for grain production.The impact of flood catastrophe to grain production in China was significantly serious,and high or very high risk of flood catastrophe mainly concentrates on the central and eastern regions of China.Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century flood disaster,for majority of the major-producing provinces,the probability of 10% reduction of grain output is more than 90%.Especially,the probabilities of more than 15% decline in grain production reach up to 99.99,99.86,99.69,and 91.60% respectively in Anhui,Jilin,Liaoning,and Heilongjiang.Flood catastrophe assessment can provide multifaceted information about flood catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of flood catastrophe.展开更多
During the last 2000 years,flood and waterlogging catastrophes took place quite frequently in the Huaihe River Basin.In the authors’opinion,these natural calamities have a very close relation to the evolution of Hong...During the last 2000 years,flood and waterlogging catastrophes took place quite frequently in the Huaihe River Basin.In the authors’opinion,these natural calamities have a very close relation to the evolution of Hongze Lake.Formed initially within a man-made dyke that was built in the Han Dynasty about 2000 years ago, Hongze Lake brought out headward accumulation developing in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River, with its continuous aggravation on lake-bottom and consequent water-level rise. It was estimated that,on an average,there were 3400×104t sediment per kilometre per year deposited on the river bed from Lutaizi to Bengbu.Therefore,the rising of water-level and the drainage difficulty in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River aggravated local flood and waterlogging catastrophe here.展开更多
Based on a typical one-free-degree ship roll motion equation, the cusp catastrophe model is built including the bifurca- tion set equation, splitting factor ＇u＇ and regular factor ＇v＇, where both ＇u＇ and ＇v＇ a...Based on a typical one-free-degree ship roll motion equation, the cusp catastrophe model is built including the bifurca- tion set equation, splitting factor ＇u＇ and regular factor ＇v＇, where both ＇u＇ and ＇v＇ are further expressed with typical flooded ship parameters. Then, the roll catastrophe mechanism is analyzed mainly by means of ＇u＇, under the given parameters of a typical trawler boat. The aim of this research is to reveal the mutagenic mechanism of the roll stability and provide a reference for improving ship roll stability.展开更多
On the basis of the field observation in the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea in the summer of 1998, a rare event of exceptionally high discharge from the Changjiang River was described and how this high discharge alte...On the basis of the field observation in the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea in the summer of 1998, a rare event of exceptionally high discharge from the Changjiang River was described and how this high discharge altered water masses as well as chemical distributions on the shelves of the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea. The maximal extending ranges of the Changjiang diluted water and the nutrients in the freshwater from the Changjiang River were recorded for the first time. It was also found that there was a closed area with high oxygen and pH values in the offshore area of the southern Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea, indicating that the extensive spreading of nutrients due to the high discharge led to photosynthesis of phytoplankton mostly taking place in the offshore area far from the river mouth. The presence of ＂excess nitrogen＂ in almost all the northern East China Sea and the south of the Huanghai Sea suggests that these areas are potentially phosphorus-limited rather than nitrogen-limited, manifesting more like an estuarine ecosystem rather than a common marine ecosystem.展开更多
伴随超标准巨震、极端暴雨洪水、巨型滑坡等灾害频繁发生,极端载荷作用下梯级水电枢纽群的灾害风险分析与防控等问题成为当前水利工程领域的研究热点。为分析梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险研究现状,绘制了国内外水库大坝溃坝事件的时间序列图...伴随超标准巨震、极端暴雨洪水、巨型滑坡等灾害频繁发生,极端载荷作用下梯级水电枢纽群的灾害风险分析与防控等问题成为当前水利工程领域的研究热点。为分析梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险研究现状,绘制了国内外水库大坝溃坝事件的时间序列图,分析了梯级水电枢纽群的风险特征,总结评述了梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和巨灾防控研究进展,主要结论如下:1)梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险是我国水利水电工程风险防控面临的主要问题;2)梯级水电枢纽群风险分析方面主要聚焦于梯级水库连溃概率的分析和计算,对于溃决可能产生的巨灾损失的量化研究不足,缺乏对巨灾因子及其相关影响作用下巨灾风险的评估;3)缺乏对梯级枢纽群灾害链的阻断技术研究和应急避险方案设计研究。为此提出了梯级水电枢纽群可能最大灾难(Probable Maximum Disaster,PMD)的科学内涵,考虑可能遭遇的多种致灾因子和承灾体特征,分析相互因果关系和极端荷载组合情况,初步建立了PMD评估的理论模型,为绘制梯级水电枢纽群在巨灾情景下的灾难空间外包线和估算PMD损失上限值提供科学依据,为梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和防控提供理论基础和技术支持。展开更多
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41201551)the Key Technology R&D Program of China(2012BAH20B04-2)
文摘Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change,and meanwhile,it is an urgent scientific issue need to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline.This paper developed the methodology of flood catastrophe risk assessment,which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation,Monte Carlo simulation,the generalized extreme value distribution（GEV） fitting,and risk evaluation.Data on crop loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters,hectares affected by natural disasters,and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard equation.Monte Carlo simulation based on appropriate distribution was used to expand sample size to overcome the insufficiency of crop loss data.Block maxima model（BMM） approach based on the extreme value theory was for modeling the generalized extreme value distribution（GEV） of flood catastrophe loss,and then flood catastrophe risk at the provincial scale in China was calculated.The Type III Extreme distribution（Weibull） has a weighted advantage of modeling flood catastrophe risk for grain production.The impact of flood catastrophe to grain production in China was significantly serious,and high or very high risk of flood catastrophe mainly concentrates on the central and eastern regions of China.Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century flood disaster,for majority of the major-producing provinces,the probability of 10% reduction of grain output is more than 90%.Especially,the probabilities of more than 15% decline in grain production reach up to 99.99,99.86,99.69,and 91.60% respectively in Anhui,Jilin,Liaoning,and Heilongjiang.Flood catastrophe assessment can provide multifaceted information about flood catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of flood catastrophe.
文摘During the last 2000 years,flood and waterlogging catastrophes took place quite frequently in the Huaihe River Basin.In the authors’opinion,these natural calamities have a very close relation to the evolution of Hongze Lake.Formed initially within a man-made dyke that was built in the Han Dynasty about 2000 years ago, Hongze Lake brought out headward accumulation developing in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River, with its continuous aggravation on lake-bottom and consequent water-level rise. It was estimated that,on an average,there were 3400×104t sediment per kilometre per year deposited on the river bed from Lutaizi to Bengbu.Therefore,the rising of water-level and the drainage difficulty in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River aggravated local flood and waterlogging catastrophe here.
基金Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China(Grant Nos.LY12E09004 and LY13E090004)the Science Research Foundation of Zhejiang Ocean University of China(Grant No.201157)
文摘Based on a typical one-free-degree ship roll motion equation, the cusp catastrophe model is built including the bifurca- tion set equation, splitting factor ＇u＇ and regular factor ＇v＇, where both ＇u＇ and ＇v＇ are further expressed with typical flooded ship parameters. Then, the roll catastrophe mechanism is analyzed mainly by means of ＇u＇, under the given parameters of a typical trawler boat. The aim of this research is to reveal the mutagenic mechanism of the roll stability and provide a reference for improving ship roll stability.
文摘On the basis of the field observation in the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea in the summer of 1998, a rare event of exceptionally high discharge from the Changjiang River was described and how this high discharge altered water masses as well as chemical distributions on the shelves of the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea. The maximal extending ranges of the Changjiang diluted water and the nutrients in the freshwater from the Changjiang River were recorded for the first time. It was also found that there was a closed area with high oxygen and pH values in the offshore area of the southern Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea, indicating that the extensive spreading of nutrients due to the high discharge led to photosynthesis of phytoplankton mostly taking place in the offshore area far from the river mouth. The presence of ＂excess nitrogen＂ in almost all the northern East China Sea and the south of the Huanghai Sea suggests that these areas are potentially phosphorus-limited rather than nitrogen-limited, manifesting more like an estuarine ecosystem rather than a common marine ecosystem.
文摘伴随超标准巨震、极端暴雨洪水、巨型滑坡等灾害频繁发生,极端载荷作用下梯级水电枢纽群的灾害风险分析与防控等问题成为当前水利工程领域的研究热点。为分析梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险研究现状,绘制了国内外水库大坝溃坝事件的时间序列图,分析了梯级水电枢纽群的风险特征,总结评述了梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和巨灾防控研究进展,主要结论如下:1)梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险是我国水利水电工程风险防控面临的主要问题;2)梯级水电枢纽群风险分析方面主要聚焦于梯级水库连溃概率的分析和计算,对于溃决可能产生的巨灾损失的量化研究不足,缺乏对巨灾因子及其相关影响作用下巨灾风险的评估;3)缺乏对梯级枢纽群灾害链的阻断技术研究和应急避险方案设计研究。为此提出了梯级水电枢纽群可能最大灾难(Probable Maximum Disaster,PMD)的科学内涵,考虑可能遭遇的多种致灾因子和承灾体特征,分析相互因果关系和极端荷载组合情况,初步建立了PMD评估的理论模型,为绘制梯级水电枢纽群在巨灾情景下的灾难空间外包线和估算PMD损失上限值提供科学依据,为梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和防控提供理论基础和技术支持。
