Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects ofChina's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application ofCMRCGE model

This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.

Economists’Judgement on China’s Socio-Economic Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

2020 is the final year of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period and an intersection between the“two centennial goals.”It is also a vital year for drafting the 14th Five-year Plan and embarking on a new journey of socialist modernization.What socio-economic progress has China achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and what are the opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for the 14th Five-Year Plan period?In May 2020,the China Economist conducted a questionnaire survey among economists.Results suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,China has achieved remarkable progress in the following areas:significant socio-economic development,deepening industry-ICT integration,and rapid growth of new economy;mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation,and enhanced R&D capabilities for cutting-edge technologies;green production and the abatement of air and water pollution;and poverty reduction.In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,opportunities co-exist with challenges for China’s socio-economic development,which brims with resiliency.Surveyed economists felt sanguine about China’s development outlook.Based on the results,surveyed economists believed that the Chinese government should focus on the following priorities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period:expediting industrial transition,strengthening the real economy,and exploring domestic consumption potentials;ramping up research in fundamental science,and accelerating the research of critical technologies;increasing equal access to basic public services;and promoting green development in all respects,including green consumption,production,distribution,innovation,and finance.

Vehicle emissions of primary air pollutants from 2009 to 2019 and projection for the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing, China

Over the past decade,the emission standards and fuel standards in Beijing have been upgraded twice,and the vehicle structure has been improved by accelerating the elimination of 2.95 million old vehicles.Through the formulation and implementation of these policies,the emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),volatile organic compounds(VOCs),nitrogen oxides(NO_(x)),and fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))in 2019 were 147.9,25.3,43.4,and 0.91 kton in Beijing,respectively.The emission factor method was adopted to better understand the emissions characteristics of primary air pollutants from combustion engine vehicles and to improve pollution control.In combination with the air quality improvement goals and the status of social and economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing,different vehicle pollution control scenarios were established,and emissions reductions were projected.The results show that the emissions of four air pollutants(CO,VOCs,NO_(x),and PM_(2.5))fromvehicles in Beijing decreased by an average of 68% in 2019,compared to their levels in 2009.The contribution of NOx emissions from diesel vehicles increased from 35% in 2009 to 56% in 2019,which indicated that clean and energy-saving diesel vehicle fleets should be further improved.Electric vehicle adoption could be an important measure to reduce pollutant emissions.With the further upgrading of vehicle structure and the adoption of electric vehicles,it is expected that the total emissions of the four vehicle pollutants can be reduced by 20%-41% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

Development Trend of Energy and Key Points of Ecological Environment Protection in China's "14^(th) Five-Year Plan" Period

From the changes of total primary energy consumption and primary energy consumption structure,installed capacity and power generation of secondary energy(electricity),etc.,the development characteristics of China's energy structure in the"13^(th) Five-Year Plan"period was comprehensively studied.Combined with the complexity of the international situation,the diversification of the domestic energy system,the intelligence of the energy industry,etc.,the situation and challenges faced by China's energy development were deeply discussed in the four aspects of energy security,energy low-carbon transformation,energy system efficiency,and energy technology level.From the angle of ecological environment protection,the development of energy in the"14^(th) Five-Year Plan"period in China was analyzed,and some policies and measures were put forward.

China’s 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans:Review and Advice

The 13th Five-year Plan period ushered in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.During this period,China’s economy transitioned from rapid to high-quality growth and weathered the storms of the trade war with the United States and the COVID-19 outbreak.Chinese policymakers embraced new development concepts,and fought to cut overcapacity and excess inventory,deleverage,lower costs,and bolster weak areas under the theme of supply-side structural reforms.In fighting the three tough battles of major risk prevention,targeted poverty reduction and pollution abatement,China has largely resolved myriad structural contradictions and maintained rapid domestic economic growth and stability.Most targets for the 13th Five-year Plan period have been achieved ahead of time or are near completion on time.Institutional sophistication has bolstered high-quality development.

China’s Rural Development in the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan Period

The 14^(th) Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025)is a critical transition for China’s social and economic development.After achieving moderate prosperity and eradicating absolute poverty in 2020,China will embark upon a new journey towards an affluent society with rural revitalization replacing poverty eradication as a new priority of government agenda on agriculture and rural affairs.In the 14^(th) FYP period,China should increase rural prosperity in all respects,modernize agriculture and the countryside,address food security challenges,raise farmers’incomes,and roll out rural reforms.

Ten Focal Problems inthe 10th Five-Year Power Plan

In view of that the average electricity consumption per capita is still rather low in China, this paper putsforward ten focal problems in the 10th Five-year Power Plan, including optimized allocation of power sources and powernetworks, environmental protection in coal-fired power plants, as well as localization of power equipment, etc.

A Review of Development of Environmental Protection Information during the 12^(th) Five-Year Plan Period and Its Outlook

During the 12^(th)Five-Year Plan period,the environmental protection information work made remarkable achievements,and the construction of nationwide air quality monitoring network was completed; the trinitarian monitoring system was established,and environmental emergency command ability enhanced significantly. However,the issues of " information island" and " application silo" are still outstanding,and the application and promotion of new technologies make slow progress; the capacity of information system to support environmental protection business is insufficient,and there is no capacity for decision analysis. In the 13^(th)Five-Year Plan period,it is needed to strengthen the application and promotion of new technologies such as cloud computing,big data,Internet of Things,and spatial information,mainly construct and improve " Cloud Computing Based Environmental Protection( CCBEP) ", " big data platform of ecological environment",and then realize the core objective of improving environmental quality.

Study on Objectives and Strategies for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in Transportation Industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period in Beijing

Facing increasing passenger and cargo transport demand and limited re-source in the 13th Five-Year period, how to make a breakthrough and substantial progress has become a key issue on planning and the Top-level Design. In this paper we judged and analyzed the current development and potential demand of the energy saving and emission reduction in Beijing traffic industry. Through application of energy and emission prediction model which based on the vehicle activity data, the development goals of “one drop, double control, and triple upgrade” have been put forward. In order to achieve the goal, “5 + 1” development strategies should be implemented, and we also proposed the thinking and recommendations on sustainable development of transportation.

Small Town Construction in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period: A Case Study of Shangrao City

The 12 th Five-Year Plan period was unusual five years in the development of China. Under the dual pressure of complex international environment and arduous domestic reform task,China made outstanding achievements in economic development,which lays a solid foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in the 13 th Five-Year Plan period. The key and difficult points of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects lie in solving issues concerning agriculture,farmers,and rural areas. The 18 th National Congress of the CPC stated that integrated urban and rural development is the fundamental approach for solving issues concerning agriculture,farmers,and rural areas. As a transitional form from rural areas to urban areas,small town play an important role in integrated urban and rural development. In the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,China should take a new road of characteristic urbanization,energetically develop key towns,central towns,and characteristic towns,use points to drive areas,and promote coordinated progress of urbanization construction and new countryside construction. Focusing on the objective of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and taking Shangrao City as an example,we analyzed construction of small town,in order to provide scientific theoretical reference for urbanization development,plan preparation,and policy formulation of Shangrao City.

Basic Ideas and Principles for the Development of Graduate Education During "the 13th Five-Year Plan"

"The 13th Five-Year Plan", referring to the period from 2016 to 2020, marks a decisive stage in building moderately prosperous society of China. During "the 13th Five-Year Plan", the demand of China's graduate education is increasing. Therefore, the development of graduate education during "the 13th Five-Year Plan" must meet the needs of the development of China's economy. By strictly adhering to the basic principle of steady development and deepening reform, improve the integral level of graduate education across the board to better provide high-level talents for the development of China's socialism. This paper, starting from the general situation of graduate education during "the 12th Five-year Plan", discusses basic ideas and principles for the development of graduate education during "the 13th Five-Year Plan" for reference only.

China＇s Industries in the Beginning of Its 12th Five-Year Plan Period

Complex international and domestic economic scenarios and the short cyclical nature of macroeconomic policies characterizes the beginning year of the 12th Five- Year Plan period, it reflects the difficult policy choices that arise among three major regulatory targets ,for growth, structure, and prices. In the transitional period of intertwined challenges, a spirit of commitment and dedication to real industries will allow China to occupy vantage points in world manufacturing and become an industrial power in the real sense. To a certain extent the beginning year of the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-2015）, while.fraught with challenges and pain, marks a departure from cutthroat competition to quality growth for Chinese enterprises and entrepreneurs. From 2012, China＇s industrial and market economic systems will both head towards more sophisticated stages of development. China ＂s industries will develop along environmentally sustainable, delicate, high-end, IT-based and service-oriented paths, while expediting the country＇s economic restructuring, industrial upgrade capabilities and its pursuit of innovative industrialization, and it will do so with strides more remarkable than ever before in its history.

Challenges and Opportunities for China＇s Agricultural and Rural Development in the 12th Five-year Plan Period

Despite the great progress of rural socioeconomic development in the 11 th Five-year Plan period （2006-2010）, China＇s agriculture and countryside are still.lacing the challenges of a crude development pattern, backward rural development and cities＇ weak driving effect on the countryside. In the 12th Five-year Plan period （20I 1-2015）, China should transform the way agriculture grows and operates; promote rural socioeconomic development; improve urban planning and its functions, institutional innovation, and urban/rural integration to lay a solid foundation for building an all-round well- off society.

The State Environmental Protection Standards Planning During 11^(th) Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

This planning is stipulated to reinforce Decision by State Council onReinforrcing Environmental Protection with Views of Scientific Development, to give impetus to theenforcement and supervision along legal, standardized and scientific lines, to strengthenwell-structured laws and regulations for environmental protection, to improve the system oftechnical laws, regulations and standards for environmental protection, scientifically establishenvironmental standards and to dovetail environmental protection standards and targets. PresentSituation and Problems Concerning State Environmental Protection Standardization System PresentSituation of State Environmental Protection Standardization System China''s environmental protectionstandardization started side by side with environmental protection. The year 1973 witnessed China''sfirst environmental protection stand ard-Trial Standard of Industrial ''Three Wastes'' Discharge.After the development of over three decades, China''s environmental protection standard system,composed of national and local scales, has begun to take shape. National environmental protectionstandards range from environmental quality standard, pollutant discharge and control standards,standard sample, industrial standard for environmental protection, to other standards.

Western China Development During 13th Five-Year Plan Period:Poverty Alleviation and Green Development

The 12th Annual Conference of the Consortium for Western China Development Studies July,2017Gui-An New District,CHINABackground Since its establishment in 2004,the Consortium for Western China Development Studies(CWCDS)has organized nine conferences on vari-

Target for Power Construction in 9th Five-year Plan Period Set-up

According to the National Meeting on Power Construction and Cost Control held in Beijing on 26th August 1996, the target for power construction in the period of 9th Five- year Plan is set-up as follows:

Minister on 9th Five-Year Plan of China's Chemical Industry

At the beginning of 1995, Gu Xiulian, Minister of the Chemical Industry, gave a briefing to the media on the newly-drafted 9th Five-Year Plan(1996-2000) for China’s chemical industry. She said that unlike the past development plans under the planned economy system, the new plan orients the product mix, industry structure, enterprise structure and regional distribution to the needs of the domestic and world markets, and co-ordinates the development of state-

China’s 10^(th) Five-Year Plan Gone and 11^(th) Five-Year Plan Coming

As a calendar event, NPC (National People’s Congress), China’s top legislator or law maker allying with the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Chinese top advisor body to hold the annual meeting in Beijing in March, 2006 to review the past five years’ economic running and to blueprint the next five year going. A roadmap to all economic sectors in this emerging country. The economic panorama is helpful in guiding the readers to understand where to go and what to do in this world textile jumbo.