The global value chains have become the core skeleton of the global economy.As a large-scale international cooperation initiative,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI hereafter)may have a significant impact on the global ...The global value chains have become the core skeleton of the global economy.As a large-scale international cooperation initiative,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI hereafter)may have a significant impact on the global economic landscape.In this context,the spatiotemporal pattern and evolution of the value chain connection of the Silk Road countries and whether the BRI will promote the value chain connections between China and these countries are important research questions for understanding the changing global economic landscape.This paper employs input-output analysis,network analysis and difference-in-differences based on Propensity Score Matching(PSM-DID)to conduct an in-depth quantitative study of these questions.The results show that,first,the overall value chain connection between China and the Silk Road countries has been rising since 2001.From the perspective of geographical distribution,Southeast Asia is the highest value chain connection region with China,and the growth in the central and eastern Europe is the most significant,whereas the central Asia is the lowest value connection region.From the perspective of complex network analysis,China’s position in the network of value flow among the Silk Road countries has been increasing continuously,and it has been in the lead position since 2008.Besides,the implementation of the BRI has had a significant positive influence on the overall value chain connection between China and the Silk Road countries,but this positive influence is limited to the central and eastern Europe region,whereas it is not significant in other regions.Finally,this paper suggests that to promote the development of value chain connection,the Silk Road countries need to develop more specific policies related to value chains.Policymakers need to be able to correctly identify the comparative advantages of the region and the types of value chains that are compatible with them and then find suitable partners and formulate targeted promotion policies.展开更多
To promote the reconstruction and optimization of the global value chains(GVCs),it is essential to tackle the prominent contradictions and problems including inequality of opportunity and status in the evolution of th...To promote the reconstruction and optimization of the global value chains(GVCs),it is essential to tackle the prominent contradictions and problems including inequality of opportunity and status in the evolution of the GVC division of labor.The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)promoted by China has obtained remarkable achievements in this regard;however,there lacks sound theoretical and empirical evidence as to whether the BRI has driven the GVCs to develop towards a more equitable direction.This paper employs the difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the GVC optimization effect of the BRI.In addition,on the basis of the so-called“five-pronged approach”index,the paper uses the mediating effect model to test the mechanism of influence.The empirical results suggest that the BRI has helped participating countries along the routes to increase their position in GVC division of labor significantly through the mediating mechanism of four out of the“five-pronged approach”,namely policy coordination,road connectivity,unimpeded trade,and currency convertibility.The strengthening of and closer people-to-people ties has not yet appeared to be an effective mediator,and a possible explanation may be that its influence is indirect and lagging.展开更多
The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has aroused rich discussions about the possible increase in carbon dioxide emission under the arduous global carbon dioxide emission reduction task.Adopting the methods of input-output...The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has aroused rich discussions about the possible increase in carbon dioxide emission under the arduous global carbon dioxide emission reduction task.Adopting the methods of input-output technique and complex network ana-lysis,we first construct a fairer method to trace carbon dioxide emission transfer based on global value chains,then trace the source of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the Silk Roads countries with a long-term multiple regional input-output database.We find that,first,after the proposal of the BRI,the total direct carbon dioxide emissions of the Silk Roads countries and China’s proportion of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the other Silk Roads countries have both declined.Second,the Silk Roads countries are generally the net receivers of carbon dioxide emission transfer,and the inflow is mainly distributed in Southeast Asian countries and core countries in other sub-regions.Then,the transfer of carbon dioxide emission accepted by the Silk Roads countries comes mostly from large developing countries,such as China,Russia,and India,and developed countries,such as the United States,Japan,and Germany.The products are mainly concentrated in energy and chemical industries,as well as heavy industries,such as mining and quarrying,and metal products.We suggest that,due to the high degree of spatial and industrial concentrations of carbon dioxide emission transfer,it is necessary to make targeted policies for these countries and industries to reduce these transfers.展开更多
According to the Word Bank,in the first 38 years of China,economic reform took 700 million people out poverty line in China at the same time benefiting the Global South economy due to the integration of the transnatio...According to the Word Bank,in the first 38 years of China,economic reform took 700 million people out poverty line in China at the same time benefiting the Global South economy due to the integration of the transnational enterprises global value chains with China.Chinese government understood the economic rational of global value chains,Flying Geese Model,and foreign direct investment theories and introduced policies to attract foreign capital,technology,production,and foreign buyers,placing China as the final stage of the production networks in Asia and also transforming China in the biggest buying market of many resources and energy suppliers from less developed countries in Asia,Africa,and South America.But a new model of Chinese economic development even more interconnected and interdependent with the world is now on move.Even quite before the world acknowledge the protectionist mindset of the US in Trump era,Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013 a very ambitious initiative under the name of“One Road,One Belt,the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”to enhance a new stage of world globalization,which together with two complimentary initiatives:the“International Production Cooperation”and“Third-Country Market Cooperation”,and in complementarity with the“Made in China 2025”and“Internet Plus”plans will lead China to develop global value chains leaded by Chinese companies and integrating countries of Europe,Africa,Asia,and South America.展开更多
Reciprocity and symbiosis are essential to the creation of“a community with a shared future for mankind”,and industrial relocation is a key strategy for implementing the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).This paper inve...Reciprocity and symbiosis are essential to the creation of“a community with a shared future for mankind”,and industrial relocation is a key strategy for implementing the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).This paper investigates the reciprocal and symbiotic effects of industrial relocation between China and BRI countries,and performs an empirical test using the Eora global supply chain database of 2002-2020.Our findings suggest that there has been an increasing level of industrial reciprocity and symbiosis between China and BRI countries,but great differences exist across sectors and regions;industrial relocation between China and BRI countries is conducive to two-way industrial reciprocity and symbiosis primarily through regional value chain cooperation and an increasing level of industrial agglomeration.The most substantial effects have been observed in industrial relocation involving developed BRI countries,in medium-and high-tech sectors,and following the announcement of the BRI.展开更多
The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)offers investment opportunities for several Eurasian countries but not all of them attract investments in the same way.This paper investigates the geographical distribution of BRI proj...The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)offers investment opportunities for several Eurasian countries but not all of them attract investments in the same way.This paper investigates the geographical distribution of BRI projects completed between 2013 and 2020.The analysis shows that pre-existing trade patterns are related to the likelihood of a country receiving completed BRI projects.We single out and provide evidence in support of five stylized facts.First,BRI countries with completed projects tend to be poorer and larger.Second,projects are more likely to occur in countries with intense intermediate trade with China.Third,the countries that received projects have more diversified export structures and their sectoral specialization overlaps with that of China.Fourth,among middle-high-income countries,the allocation ofprojects tends to favor those with high levels of intra-industry trade.Fifth,among BRI countries with projects,the complexity or sophistication of the goods traded increases faster with income.These findings suggest that fostering trade integration has direct benefits and may also contribute to further BRI investments.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA20080000)。
文摘The global value chains have become the core skeleton of the global economy.As a large-scale international cooperation initiative,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI hereafter)may have a significant impact on the global economic landscape.In this context,the spatiotemporal pattern and evolution of the value chain connection of the Silk Road countries and whether the BRI will promote the value chain connections between China and these countries are important research questions for understanding the changing global economic landscape.This paper employs input-output analysis,network analysis and difference-in-differences based on Propensity Score Matching(PSM-DID)to conduct an in-depth quantitative study of these questions.The results show that,first,the overall value chain connection between China and the Silk Road countries has been rising since 2001.From the perspective of geographical distribution,Southeast Asia is the highest value chain connection region with China,and the growth in the central and eastern Europe is the most significant,whereas the central Asia is the lowest value connection region.From the perspective of complex network analysis,China’s position in the network of value flow among the Silk Road countries has been increasing continuously,and it has been in the lead position since 2008.Besides,the implementation of the BRI has had a significant positive influence on the overall value chain connection between China and the Silk Road countries,but this positive influence is limited to the central and eastern Europe region,whereas it is not significant in other regions.Finally,this paper suggests that to promote the development of value chain connection,the Silk Road countries need to develop more specific policies related to value chains.Policymakers need to be able to correctly identify the comparative advantages of the region and the types of value chains that are compatible with them and then find suitable partners and formulate targeted promotion policies.
基金supported by the General Project of the National Social Science Fund of China“Research on the Impact of Trade Friction on Global Industrial Chain Transfer and Countermeasures”(Grant No.20BJY002).
文摘To promote the reconstruction and optimization of the global value chains(GVCs),it is essential to tackle the prominent contradictions and problems including inequality of opportunity and status in the evolution of the GVC division of labor.The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)promoted by China has obtained remarkable achievements in this regard;however,there lacks sound theoretical and empirical evidence as to whether the BRI has driven the GVCs to develop towards a more equitable direction.This paper employs the difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the GVC optimization effect of the BRI.In addition,on the basis of the so-called“five-pronged approach”index,the paper uses the mediating effect model to test the mechanism of influence.The empirical results suggest that the BRI has helped participating countries along the routes to increase their position in GVC division of labor significantly through the mediating mechanism of four out of the“five-pronged approach”,namely policy coordination,road connectivity,unimpeded trade,and currency convertibility.The strengthening of and closer people-to-people ties has not yet appeared to be an effective mediator,and a possible explanation may be that its influence is indirect and lagging.
基金Under the auspices of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2021M703182)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41701138)。
文摘The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has aroused rich discussions about the possible increase in carbon dioxide emission under the arduous global carbon dioxide emission reduction task.Adopting the methods of input-output technique and complex network ana-lysis,we first construct a fairer method to trace carbon dioxide emission transfer based on global value chains,then trace the source of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the Silk Roads countries with a long-term multiple regional input-output database.We find that,first,after the proposal of the BRI,the total direct carbon dioxide emissions of the Silk Roads countries and China’s proportion of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the other Silk Roads countries have both declined.Second,the Silk Roads countries are generally the net receivers of carbon dioxide emission transfer,and the inflow is mainly distributed in Southeast Asian countries and core countries in other sub-regions.Then,the transfer of carbon dioxide emission accepted by the Silk Roads countries comes mostly from large developing countries,such as China,Russia,and India,and developed countries,such as the United States,Japan,and Germany.The products are mainly concentrated in energy and chemical industries,as well as heavy industries,such as mining and quarrying,and metal products.We suggest that,due to the high degree of spatial and industrial concentrations of carbon dioxide emission transfer,it is necessary to make targeted policies for these countries and industries to reduce these transfers.
基金This work was supported by FCT,I.P.,the Portuguese national funding agency for science,research and technology,under the Project UID/SOC/04521/2019.
文摘According to the Word Bank,in the first 38 years of China,economic reform took 700 million people out poverty line in China at the same time benefiting the Global South economy due to the integration of the transnational enterprises global value chains with China.Chinese government understood the economic rational of global value chains,Flying Geese Model,and foreign direct investment theories and introduced policies to attract foreign capital,technology,production,and foreign buyers,placing China as the final stage of the production networks in Asia and also transforming China in the biggest buying market of many resources and energy suppliers from less developed countries in Asia,Africa,and South America.But a new model of Chinese economic development even more interconnected and interdependent with the world is now on move.Even quite before the world acknowledge the protectionist mindset of the US in Trump era,Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013 a very ambitious initiative under the name of“One Road,One Belt,the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”to enhance a new stage of world globalization,which together with two complimentary initiatives:the“International Production Cooperation”and“Third-Country Market Cooperation”,and in complementarity with the“Made in China 2025”and“Internet Plus”plans will lead China to develop global value chains leaded by Chinese companies and integrating countries of Europe,Africa,Asia,and South America.
基金a result of the Key Project of the National Social Sciences Fund of China (NSSFC) “Study on the Mode and Path of Industrial Relocation between China and BRI Countries from the Perspective of the Symbiosis Theory” (Grant No.17ZDA046).
文摘Reciprocity and symbiosis are essential to the creation of“a community with a shared future for mankind”,and industrial relocation is a key strategy for implementing the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).This paper investigates the reciprocal and symbiotic effects of industrial relocation between China and BRI countries,and performs an empirical test using the Eora global supply chain database of 2002-2020.Our findings suggest that there has been an increasing level of industrial reciprocity and symbiosis between China and BRI countries,but great differences exist across sectors and regions;industrial relocation between China and BRI countries is conducive to two-way industrial reciprocity and symbiosis primarily through regional value chain cooperation and an increasing level of industrial agglomeration.The most substantial effects have been observed in industrial relocation involving developed BRI countries,in medium-and high-tech sectors,and following the announcement of the BRI.
文摘The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)offers investment opportunities for several Eurasian countries but not all of them attract investments in the same way.This paper investigates the geographical distribution of BRI projects completed between 2013 and 2020.The analysis shows that pre-existing trade patterns are related to the likelihood of a country receiving completed BRI projects.We single out and provide evidence in support of five stylized facts.First,BRI countries with completed projects tend to be poorer and larger.Second,projects are more likely to occur in countries with intense intermediate trade with China.Third,the countries that received projects have more diversified export structures and their sectoral specialization overlaps with that of China.Fourth,among middle-high-income countries,the allocation ofprojects tends to favor those with high levels of intra-industry trade.Fifth,among BRI countries with projects,the complexity or sophistication of the goods traded increases faster with income.These findings suggest that fostering trade integration has direct benefits and may also contribute to further BRI investments.
