Altitude-dependent gaseous emissions from freight trucks along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan

Recent increases in emissions from freight transport have caused strong concerns about air quality in Pakistan,following the rapid development of projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC).This study reported the first measurements of on-road truck emissions in Pakistan and investigated their dependence on altitude along CPEC routes.Emissions from 70 trucks were measured on CPEC highways located in Islamabad(540 m above sea level),Sost(2800 m above sea level),and at the Khunjerab Pass(4693 m above sea level).Calculated emission factors for carbon monoxide,hydrocarbons,and nitrogen oxides from heavy-duty trucks in Islamabad were 12.94±1.46,15.21±1.67,and 10.69±1.34 g km^(-1)(95%confidence level),respectively,for pre-Pak-II trucks,and 12.75±2.80,14.24±3.53,and 10.24±2.34 g km^(-1)(95%confidence level),respectively,for Pak-II trucks,representing 2e20 times higher values than the emission standards in Pakistan and India.An altitude increase of approximately 4000 m,with the associated changes in meteorology and fleet characteristics,induced an average increase of 103.6%,86.3%,124.5%,and 133.6%in the emission factors of carbon monoxide,hydrocarbons,nitrogen oxides,and carbon dioxide,respectively.Moreover,on-road emissions along the CPEC were mainly influenced by truck types.This study will support the budget evaluation of transport emissions from the CPEC trade fleet.

中巴经济走廊安全风险网络级联失效的动态鲁棒性研究

为了研究信息动态更新对中巴经济走廊安全风险网络关键节点及风险动态传导过程的影响,建立了基于有向复杂网络的中巴经济走廊安全风险传导理论模型,设计风险负载重分配算法和动态鲁棒性评价指标,分析4种不同节点攻击策略下中巴经济走廊安全风险网络级联失效鲁棒性。仿真结果表明:高介数中心度节点攻击策略对安全风险网络具有更强的摧毁效果;个别安全风险指标被随机激活导致风险网络极易失控,使得总体安全风险演化趋势更难预测;初始负载是影响安全风险网络级联失效的关键因素;当失效比例小于50%时,随机攻击策略失控效果大于蓄意攻击效果。

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor： Will It Sustain Itself？

This paper attempts to measure and explain the sustainability of China- Pakistan Economic Corridor （CPEC） by employing rational choice theory. Methodologically, the qualitative study relies on primary data in terms of elite interviews and secondary sources such as journals articles. This theory-guided empirical research has identified two sets of challenges, internal and external, that the economic corridor faces. Broadly, the challenges range from economic slow- down, political instability, religious extremism and terrorism that have taken toll of Pakistani economy, society and the state. The paper has provided policy input in terms of urging Pakistani government to reform its educational system and correct political instability along with targeting all types of militant organizations. More- over, the study urges China to engage regional stakeholders in CPEC to realize regional and trans-regional connectivity to achieve economic integration of the market.

The Emerging Dimensions of China-Pakistan Economic Cooperation and CPEC:Significance and Challenges

This study examines the economic dimensions of China–Pakistan cooperation,mainly focusing on the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC).CPEC is a key project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.The project is considered significant for Beijing’s initiatives to“bridging the gap”with its landlocked regions,especially its Xinjiang autonomous region.CPEC is regarded as a“game-changer project”for Pakistan’s economy,a“flagship project,”and a“gateway project”for BRI overall.CPEC plays a significant role in developing both countries,particularly Pakistan,through regional integration,connectivity,and economic growth.Besides the importance of CPEC,this study examines specific challenges for the CPEC project.It identifies the influential role of the US in South Asia as a global challenge,India’s proxies and political uncertainty in Afghanistan as regional challenges,and security,terrorism,and lack of consensus among political parties and provinces as internal challenges.This study is carried out by using exploratory case studies for qualitative data relying on primary data,including the interviews of high officials,academics,and other experts on the subject,and secondary sources such as journal articles and books,among others.The paper provided policy input to the Government of Pakistan and China regarding the importance of CPEC for the country's economic development and urged both countries to look into domestic,regional,and global challenges for this project.

“一带一路”视域下中国与巴基斯坦教育合作交流

自2013年“一带一路”倡议提出和中巴经济走廊建立以来,中巴两国通过教育互联互通、人才培养培训和共建丝路合作机制,积极推动教育合作与交流,取得丰硕成果。中巴经济走廊大学联盟作为重要的高等教育国际交流平台,有效促进了两国高校间的互联互通与深度合作。在未来,双方将着重推动关键领域的精准合作、科技赋能教育发展、人文交流惠及民生、产教融合协同育人,为中巴命运共同体的建设作出积极贡献。

中巴经济走廊铁路通道巴基斯坦既有ML-1线升级改造方案研究

本文结合中巴经济走廊铁路通道巴基斯坦既有ML-1线升级改造项目的具体实际,从论证“为什么要升级”的必要性问题、明确“怎样进行升级改造”的目标、细化“如何完成升级改造”的研究、解决“升级改造后怎么用”的难题、怎样充分利用当地勘察设计资源等5个方面的关键问题进行分析,提出既有线大修方案、既有线局部扩能改造方案、既有线全面提速扩能改造方案3种层次的改造方案,并结合不同段落的各自特点,综合比选,推荐分期分段改造方案,为项目决策奠定了技术基础。

后疫情时代中巴经济走廊建设研究

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”的关键性先试先行项目,对推动地区经济发展、增进两国政治互信、加强民族文化包容具有重要意义。然而,新冠疫情的爆发对中巴经济走廊的建设环境产生了重大影响,项目合作面临着政治风险加深、公共安全问题突出、经济波动和管理难度加大等挑战。为此,中巴两国要继续秉持人类命运共同体理念,加强相关区域联防联控,推进多边务实合作,积极探索高质量建设中巴经济走廊和深入发展“一带一路”倡议的有效途径,携手应对各种挑战。

Estimation of aerosol optical depth in relation to meteorological parameters over eastern and western routes of China Pakistan economic corridor

This study finds out seasonal and monthly variations in Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)over eastern and western routes of China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)and the relationship between AOD and meteorological parameters(i.e.,temperature,rainfall and wind speed).The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer(MISR)data was used from the terra satellite for the period of 2000-2016.This study aims to overtake the conventional view of the purpose of using the satellite datasets.This study takes on to the concept that validated satellite data sets rather should be used for the analysis instead of just validation specifically for our study region.Hence,after comparing MODIS AOD with MISR AOD,only MISR AOD dataset is used for further analysis.The results show a decreasing trend of AOD in summer season,a positive relationship between temperature and AOD during winter and spring seasons whereas a positive relationship between wind speed and AOD in winter and spring seasons over eastern and western routes.Periodic analysis of MODIS AOD and MISR AOD depicts May-Aug as the peak period of aerosol concentration over central Pakistan.The inter-annual analysis shows the aerosol trend remained higher during summer season however rainfall shows the washout effect.Eastern route has higher standard deviation and larger values for aerosol prevalence as compared to western route.The trajectory analysis using the HYSPLIT model suggests the bias of air mass trajectory caused deviation in the aerosol trend in the year 2014.

巴基斯坦海洋管理机制与政策走向探析

巴基斯坦是南亚第二大国,是重要的沿海国家,海洋开发潜力巨大,发展需求迫切。巴基斯坦政府共有9个涉海管理部门,海洋事务主管部门为海事部,其他涉海职责按照归口管理,分散于规划、发展和特别倡议部,外交部,科技部,能源部,以及国家粮食安全和研究部等。巴基斯坦在海洋权益、海上安全、海洋渔业、海上运输等领域制定了专门的法律制度;全面推动蓝色经济发展,加强海洋生态环境保护,并将中巴经济走廊视为发展引擎。

中巴经济走廊极端低温事件风险评估

危险性、暴露度、脆弱性是极端低温事件风险评估的关键因素。基于1961—2015年中巴经济走廊地区逐日最低气温、人口和耕地等数据,选取极端低温事件强度、频次、持续时间,人口密度,耕地面积占比,植被覆盖度,数字高程模型(DEM),脆弱人口比重和性别比重9个指标,采用层次分析法和熵权法确定各指标组合权重,对中巴经济走廊地区极端低温事件进行风险评估,实现了中巴经济走廊极端低温事件不同风险等级(低、较低、中、较高、高风险)的区划。研究表明,中巴经济走廊内极端低温事件风险分布具有显著的空间差异,极端低温事件风险受极端低温事件强度、人口密度和地形影响较大。区域内绝大部分地区属于低风险地区,高风险地区有巴基斯坦的阿扎德克什米尔地区、吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区、开普省地区、联邦直辖部落地区和中国的喀什地区。其中,阿扎德克什米尔高风险面积占比最高(约35%),联邦直辖部落地区较高风险面积占比最高(约7.7%),吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区中风险地区面积占比最高(约24.6%);中风险地区占比超过10%的还有开普省(12.5%)、阿扎德克什米尔(20%)、联邦直辖部落地区(10.2%)、中国喀什地区(14.3%)。评估结果与历史灾情吻合,可为区域气象灾害风险评估和防灾减灾提供参考。

1961-2015年中巴经济走廊极端低温事件数据集

气候变化背景下,全球极端低温事件频发,严重影响了人类社会经济的发展。准确识别极端低温事件是减轻和抵御极端低温灾害的关键。本文基于中巴经济走廊地区格点化(0.25°×0.25°)逐日最低气温数据,通过计算极端低温阈值、剔除高温地区、识别不同持续时间极端低温事件,制作了1961–2015年中巴经济走廊地区的极端低温事件数据集。通过与历史极端低温事件记录对比验证表明:本数据集具有较高准确度和可靠性。本数据集可为中巴经济走廊地区极端低温事件时空变化和风险评估研究提供数据支撑。

中巴经济走廊极端降水时空变化

基于1961-2015年中巴经济走廊地区逐日降水观测数据,采用专业气候数据空间插值软件ANUSPLIN对观测数据进行格点化处理,利用改进的百分位法计算了极端降水阈值,分析了中巴经济走廊地区极端降水量、强度与频率的时空分布特征,采用广义极值分布估算了该研究区极端降水的重现期。研究表明:(1)近55年来,极端降水量与极端降水日数均呈增加趋势但均不显著,极端降水强度变化趋势平稳;(2)研究区极端降水量与极端降水阈值的空间分布特征相似,极端降水频率的空间分布则较为均匀且呈“西南低—东北高”阶梯状分布;极端降水强度最高的地区主要集中在信德省南部和35°N地区,达到50 mm·d^(-1)以上;(3)不同重现期的极端降水表现出较强的区域性,随着重现期的逐渐增加,35°N地区高重现水平的区域范围逐渐减少,30°N地区在25年一遇中出现高重现水平区域且在50年一遇重现期中区域范围逐渐增大。

中巴经济走廊极端高温事件风险评估

基于中巴经济走廊地区1961-2015年逐日最高气温数据、人口经济、耕地等数据,选取极端高温事件强度、频次、持续时间、人口密度、耕地面积占比、不透水面积占比、GDP、脆弱人口比重和性别比重9个指标,采用层次分析法和熵权法确定各指标组合权重并对中巴经济走廊地区极端高温事件进行风险评估。结果表明:中巴经济走廊地区极端高温事件风险分布具有明显的空间差异,绝大部分地区属于低(较低)风险地区,高(较高)风险地区主要分布在旁遮普省与信德省;极端高温事件高风险地区面积占比最大的行政单元为信德省,低风险地区面积占比最大的行政单元为中国喀什地区;历史极端高温事件与本研究的评估结果基本一致。

科技创新在“一带一路”建设中扮演关键角色

[目的 /意义]"一带一路"倡议旨在为全球经济打通"任督二脉",促进全球经济共同、包容、强劲、可持续发展。中国提出的这一宏大国际合作计划所面临的风险和挑战是空前的。除了要防范沿线各国的政治和社会风险之外,还必须有效应对气候变化、自然灾害、传染病、环境污染、生态退化、水与能源资源短缺等各种挑战。如何有效应对这些挑战,对于"一带一路"建设的成败至关重要。[方法 /过程]本文分析了"中巴经济走廊"建设所面临的挑战及科技创新在其中所起的作用。[结果 /结论 ]科技创新在"一带一路"建设中扮演十分关键的角色,发挥不可或缺的引领、支撑和保障作用。

Landslide susceptibility analysis of Karakoram highway using analytical hierarchy process and scoops 3D

Landslides are prevalent,regular,and expensive hazards in the Karakoram Highway(KKH)region.The KKH connects Pakistan with China in the present China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)context.This region has not only immense economic importance but also ecological significance.The purpose of the study was to map the landslide-prone areas along KKH using two different techniquesAnalytical Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Scoops 3 D model.The causative parameters for running AHP include the lithology,presence of thrust,land use land cover,precipitation,and Digital Elevation Model(DEM)derived variables(slope,curvature,aspect,and elevation).The AHP derived final landslide susceptibility map was classified into four zones,i.e.,low,moderate,high,and extremely high.Over 80%of the study area falls under the moderate(43%)and high(40%)landslide susceptible zones.To assess the slope stability of the study area,the Scoops 3 D model was used by integrating with the earthquake loading data.The results of the limit equilibrium analysis categorized the area into four groups(low,moderate,high,and extremely high mass)of slope failure.The areas around Main Mantle Thrust(MMT)including Dubair,Jijal,and Kohistan regions,had high volumes of potential slope failures.The results from AHP and Scoops 3 D techniques were validated with the landslides inventory record of the Geological Survey of Pakistan and Google Earth.The results from both the techniques showed similar output that coincides with the known landslides areas.However,Scoops 3 D provides not only susceptible zones but also the range of volume of the potential slope failures.Further,these techniques could be used in other mountainous areas,which could help in the landslide mitigation measures.

1961-2015年中巴经济走廊逐日气象数据集

本数据集覆盖了整个中巴经济走廊地区,空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°,时间跨度从1961年1月1日至2015年12月31日。基于中巴经济走廊及其周边地区65个气象站点逐日降水、最高和最低气温数据,以该地区DEM数据为协变量,采用ANUSPLIN软件进行空间插值。以研究区其他未进行插值的气象站点数据为参照,结合目前国际上常用的逐日气温、降水数据集,验证表明本数据集具有更高的精度,能够较好地反映出真实的降水、最低和最高气温时空分布特征。本数据集可为中巴经济走廊地区气候变化研究和气象水文灾害风险评估提供数据支撑。

包容互鉴,合作共赢:以中巴经济走廊建设发展为例

中巴经济走廊是中国和巴基斯坦共同发起的一项大型战略性项目,旨在加强两国经济和政治关系,更好地造福两国人民.这一项目涵盖能源基础设施、工业园区、铁路、港口、电信、信息技术和农业等领域投资.中巴经济走廊虽处于发展起步阶段,但这一项目为中国和巴基斯坦创造了潜在的商业和就业机会,因而被中巴两国政策制定者和政府官员视为革命性战略.基于中巴经济走廊发展现状,重点探究了该项目的潜在效益及其对巴基斯坦当地居民产生的社会和经济影响.结果表明,中巴经济走廊改善了沿线基础设施条件,增加了中巴双方及其与世界其他地区之间的贸易和投资机会,并使巴基斯坦发展成为重要的区域贸易和商业中心.

高质量对外开放的影响因素--基于“中巴经济走廊”经贸合作安全与效益关系的思考

伴随“一带一路”建设走深走实,沿线国家的对外开放逐步由“高速度”向“高质量”方向转型。与此同时,居于沿线国家五大非传统安全问题之首的恐怖主义风险引起社会各界高度关注,推动沿线国家高质量对外开放挺进纵深的涵义早已超出有限的贸易效益范畴,而被赋予贸易安全与效益相结合的新时代内涵。借助内生性随机前沿的效率分析范式,实证检验2005-2015年“中巴经济走廊”周边国家恐怖袭击对经贸合作效率与效益的影响,研究发现:(1)从恐怖袭击烈度异质性视角来看,一国因恐怖袭击致伤或致死的人数越多,引致的恐怖气氛和贸易非效率程度越深,袭击烈度越高,对经贸合作效率的直接负效应越大;(2)剔除人口密度差异后,恐怖袭击的估计系数在全样本和中国样本中保持稳健,但需谨慎对待剔除人口密度前后恐怖袭击的估计系数差异;(3)安慰剂检验增强了上述结论的稳健性,发现恐怖袭击对经贸合作效率的直接负效应可能带有短期性和局部性特征;(4)进一步机制检验表明,短期内因安全形势恶化导致地区内国家普遍提高了贸易合规通关所需的文件和费用标准,对经贸合作效率提升构成一定挑战。中长期内因安全形势改善,有助于地区内经贸合作的效益提升与对外开放高质量发展。

4000a B.P.以来中巴经济走廊北段塔什库尔干气候变化对东西方文化交流的影响

新疆塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县地处中巴经济走廊北段,自古以来就是东西方文化交流的核心地带。基于地质记录和考古发现,对该县4 000a B. P.以来东西方文化交流与气候环境变化的关系进行了梳理与分析。结果发现,研究区特有的地理环境和气候变化对文化发展与传播起着重要的影响,3 500~2 800a B. P.的干旱气候对应了中巴经济走廊东西方文化交流中断,随着气候好转,东西方文化交流在该区域再次畅通;2 600~2 200a B. P.气候变干与中巴经济走廊北段文化交流再次衰落对应;历史时期丝绸之路的兴衰与气候变化密切相关。

China’s Success in Poverty Alleviation:Experience for Pakistan

This study analyzes the experience Pakistan can learn from China’s great success in its poverty alleviation projects over the last four decades.During this period China has pulled millions of people out of poverty with its continuous macroeconomic and political stability along with rural development programs and its opening-up strategy.Recently,China has been serving as an economic role model for many developing countries like Pakistan.The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiated under the Belt and Road Initiative has cemented the bilateral relationship between China and Pakistan,thus providing an opportunity for Pakistan to learn from China’s success in socioeconomic transformation.Based on this,Pakistan needs to redirect its policies to the agriculture sector through reforms in landholding and redistribution.It also needs to enhance public investments focusing on improving rural infrastructure,education,and access to basic health services.