Late Mesozoic Exhumation of the Huangling Massif:Constraints on the Evolution of the Middle Yangtze River

Plate subduction leads to complex exhumation processes on continents.The Huangling Massif lies at the northern margin of the South China Block.Whether the Huangling Massif was exhumed as a watershed of the middle reaches of the Paleo-Yangtze River during the Mesozoic remains under debate.We examined the exhumation history of the Huangling Massif based on six granite bedrock samples,using apatite fission track(AFT)and apatite and zircon(U-Th)/He(AHe and ZHe)thermochronology.These samples yielded ages of 157–132 Ma(ZHe),119–106 Ma(AFT),and 114–72 Ma(AHe),respectively.Thermal modeling revealed that three phases of rapid cooling occurred during the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous,late Early Cretaceous,and Late Cretaceous.These exhumation processes led to the high topographic relief responsible for the emergence of the Huangling Massif.The integrated of our new data with published sedimentological records suggests that the Huangling Massif might have been the watershed of the middle reaches of the Paleo-Yangtze River since the Cretaceous.At that time,the rivers flowed westward into the Sichuan Basin and eastward into the Jianghan Basin.The subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Asian continent in the Mesozoic deeply influenced the geomorphic evolution of the South China Block.

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

Regional Brand and High-quality Development of Fruits in Ethnic Areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the Greater Food Approach

Establishing the Greater Food Approach and promoting the Yangtze River Economic Belt s national major regional development strategy can better support and serve the agricultural power and Chinese-style modernization.This paper introduces the characteristics of fruit industry in 16 autonomous prefectures and 47 autonomous counties under the jurisdiction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.It studies the intellectual property resources of brand marks from the aspects of geographical indications,collective trademarks,certification trademarks,well-known trademarks in China and national design patents,and analyzes the main problems of brand and high-quality development of fruit industry in these ethnic autonomous areas.Finally,it puts forward some strategies,such as improving the protection of intellectual property rights of geographical indications,using intellectual property rights of brand signs,building modern seed industry upgrading project,drawing lessons from the experience of thousand villages demonstration project,ensuring that large-scale poverty does not occur,and building a diversified food supply system.

Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and projections of carbon peak scenarios

Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.

Promoting High-quality Development of Grain and Oil in Ethnic Areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the Perspective of Agricultural Power

Accelerating the construction of agricultural power,further promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and better supporting and serving Chinese-style modernization are the key issues at present.This paper first introduces the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its ethnic areas,and studies the characteristics of the grain and oil industry in the ethnic autonomous areas of the economic belt,as well as the current situation of various types of intellectual property resources,such as industrial cultural heritage,scientific and tech-nological innovation,and brand marking intellectual property.Besides,it analyzes the main problems in the high-quality development of grain and oil in the Yangtze River Economic Belt ethnic areas.Finally,it comes up with recommendations,including protecting the intellectual prop-erty rights of cultural heritage in the field of grain and oil,leading the inheritance and development of excellent traditional Chinese culture,use scientific and technological innovation intellectual property rights to promote the innovation-driven development strategy of the grain and oil in-dustry,and providing counterpart assistance to ethnic autonomous areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt to further promote the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Evaluation of Ecological Sustainable Development in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on Ecological Footprint Theory

The ecological footprint was employed as a quantitative indicator of resource inputs,enabling a detailed account of the structure of biological resources and energy occupancy,as well as the variation of resource productivity in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)Region.From 2004 to 2018,there were notable variations in the ecological productivity of different types of land on basis of China’s equilibrium factor across the three provinces and one city in the YRD region.Jiangsu Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of arable land,while Anhui Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of forest land.Shanghai City exhibited the highest ecological productivity of pasture land,while Zhejiang Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of water area.In 2018,the proportion of arable land within the total ecological carrying capacity of the YRD region reached 74.35%.Furthermore,the contribution of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces to the YRD’s total ecological carrying capacity was 41.36%and 41.26%,respectively.In the construction of a new development pattern in the YRD region,which is dominated by the domestic cycle as the main body and mutually reinforced by domestic and international double-cycle,the YRD region should combine the utilization of natural forces with innovation in science,technology and cooperation mechanisms.Furthermore,the government should guide the concentration of social capital towards green industries.It is also recommended that the moderate reduction of ecological footprints should be encouraged,and that the security of biological resources and energy,the leadership in the field of cutting-edge science and technology should be ensured in YRD region.This will facilitate the formation of a new development pattern of higher-quality integration at the national level firstly.

Interdecadal change and projection of the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley in CMIP6 models

评估了20个CMIP6模式对春季北极涛动(AO)与长江流域夏季降水(YRP)关系的模拟能力.结果表明, 4个模式(ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM))能合理模拟出1990年代后期AO-YRP关系的减弱. 1980-1998年,当春季AO位于正位相时,夏季东亚急流北移,长江流域为异常下沉运动,同时西太平洋副热带高压减弱,减少向长江流域的水汽输送,结果导致降水减少. 1999-2014年,上述大气环流与春季AO的联系不显著,从而减弱AO-YRP的关系.利用这四个模式进一步预估了RCP4.5情景下2015-2100年期间AO-YRP的关系.两者在2015-2040年为显著负相关关系,随后再次减弱.

Characterization of Nutrients,Heavy Metals,Petroleum and Their Impact on Phytoplankton in Laizhou Bay:Implications for Environmental Management and Monitoring

The Laizhou Bay(LB)represents a substantial ecological area that is vulnerable to human activities and confronts diverse environmental challenges.This study provides a comprehensive characterization of nutrients,petroleum,heavy metals,and phytoplankton community structure across seven distinct areas in LB.The results indicate relatively high concentrations of NO_(2)-N,SiO_(4)-Si,and NO_(3)-N in the Southwest Laizhou Bay(SWLB)and Huanghe River Estuary(HRE).In contrast,the East Laizhou bay(ELB)and the North of Huanghe River Estuary(NHRE)exhibit the highest concentrations of heavy metals(As,Cr and Hg).The areas with high phytoplankton density and community diversity are mainly located in the SWLB.After adjusting for basic environmental factors,phytoplankton density and Margalef richness index D are significantly associated with nutrients(NO_(3)-N,NO_(2)-N,NH_(4)-N,SiO_(4)-Si),and heavy metal(Cr)concentrations.We highlight that,in addition to Xiaoqinghe River,nutrients brought by the Mihe River in the SWLB and heavy metal(Cr)pollution in the ELB resulting from industrial and mining activities along the coast significantly influence phytoplankton growth and community structure.Therefore,it is recommended that more monitoring and management efforts be focused on these regions in the future.

Prediction of discharge in a tidal river using the LSTM-based sequence-to-sequence models

The complexity of river-tide interaction poses a significant challenge in predicting discharge in tidal rivers.Long short-term memory(LSTM)networks excel in processing and predicting crucial events with extended intervals and time delays in time series data.Additionally,the sequence-to-sequence(Seq2Seq)model,known for handling temporal relationships,adapting to variable-length sequences,effectively capturing historical information,and accommodating various influencing factors,emerges as a robust and flexible tool in discharge forecasting.In this study,we introduce the application of LSTM-based Seq2Seq models for the first time in forecasting the discharge of a tidal reach of the Changjiang River(Yangtze River)Estuary.This study focuses on discharge forecasting using three key input characteristics:flow velocity,water level,and discharge,which means the structure of multiple input and single output is adopted.The experiment used the discharge data of the whole year of 2020,of which the first 80%is used as the training set,and the last 20%is used as the test set.This means that the data covers different tidal cycles,which helps to test the forecasting effect of different models in different tidal cycles and different runoff.The experimental results indicate that the proposed models demonstrate advantages in long-term,mid-term,and short-term discharge forecasting.The Seq2Seq models improved by 6%-60%and 5%-20%of the relative standard deviation compared to the harmonic analysis models and improved back propagation neural network models in discharge prediction,respectively.In addition,the relative accuracy of the Seq2Seq model is 1%to 3%higher than that of the LSTM model.Analytical assessment of the prediction errors shows that the Seq2Seq models are insensitive to the forecast lead time and they can capture characteristic values such as maximum flood tide flow and maximum ebb tide flow in the tidal cycle well.This indicates the significance of the Seq2Seq models.

Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

City Network Evolution Characteristics of Smart Industry: Evidence from Yangtze River Delta, China

The dual-path model of industrial evolution and spatial progression has been widely acknowledged and incorporated into the strategic planning to promote the development of urban industries and regional collaborations.However,current research on inter-enter-prise city networks mainly focuses on the single sector of flows on all enterprise branches,such as product value chains and production factors,but neglects that of particular industry department.Built upon the new economic geography and city networks theory,this paper develops a methodological framework that focuses on the analysis of city network evolution characteristics of smart industry.Particu-larly,a conceptual model of smart industry enterprise-industry-city is proposed and then applied to a case study of smart industry in the Yangtze River Delta Region,China.Using enterprise supplier-customer data,a city network of smart industry is constructed and sub-sequently analyzed with the proposed model.Findings indicate that the smart industry network in Yangtze River Delta Region exhibits a hierarchical structure and the expansion of the network presents a small-world network characteristic.The study not only makes a meth-odological contribution for revealing the industrial and spatial evolution path of the current smart industry,but also provides empirical support for the formulation of new economic development policies focused on smart industries,demonstrating the role of city clusters as carriers of regional synergistic development.

Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Spatial Association Network:A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta City Cluster,China

City cluster is an effective platform for encouraging regionally coordinated development.Coordinated reduction of carbon emissions within city cluster via the spatial association network between cities can help coordinate the regional carbon emission management,realize sustainable development,and assist China in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper applies the improved gravity model and social network analysis(SNA)to the study of spatial correlation of carbon emissions in city clusters and analyzes the structural characteristics of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)city cluster in China and its influencing factors.The results demonstrate that:1)the spatial association of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster exhibits a typical and complex multi-threaded network structure.The network association number and density show an upward trend,indicating closer spatial association between cities,but their values remain generally low.Meanwhile,the network hierarchy and network efficiency show a downward trend but remain high.2)The spatial association network of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster shows an obvious‘core-edge’distribution pattern.The network is centered around Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi,all of which play the role of‘bridges’,while cities such as Zhoushan,Ma'anshan,Tongling and other cities characterized by the remote location,single transportation mode or lower economic level are positioned at the edge of the network.3)Geographic proximity,varying levels of economic development,different industrial structures,degrees of urbanization,levels of technological innovation,energy intensities and environmental regulation are important influencing factors on the spatial association of within the YRD city cluster.Finally,policy implications are provided from four aspects:government macro-control and market mechanism guidance,structural characteristics of the‘core-edge’network,reconfiguration and optimization of the spatial layout of the YRD city cluster,and the application of advanced technologies.

A Precursory Signal of June-July Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin: December-January Tropospheric Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau

The prediction of summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)has long been challenging,especially during June-July(JJ),when the mei-yu generally occurs.This study explores the potential signal for the YRB precipitation in JJ and reveals that the Tibetan Plateau tropospheric temperature(TPTT)in the middle and upper levels during the preceding December-January(DJ)is significantly correlated with JJ YRB precipitation.The close connection between the DJ TPTT anomaly with JJ YRB precipitation may be due to the joint modulation of the DJ ENSO and spring TP soil temperatures.The lagged response to an anomalously cold TPTT during the preceding DJ is a TPTT that is still anomalously cold during the following JJ.The lower TPTT can lead to an anomalous anticyclone to the east of Lake Baikal,an anomalous cyclone at the middle latitudes of East Asia,and an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific.Meanwhile,the East Asian westerly jet shifts southward in response to the meridional thermal gradient caused by the colder troposphere extending from the TP to the east of Lake Baikal.The above-mentioned circulation anomalies constitute the positive anomaly of the East Asia-Pacific pattern,known to be conducive to more precipitation over the YRB.Since the DJ TPTT contains both the land(TP soil temperature)and ocean(ENSO)signals,it has a closer relationship with the JJ precipitation over the YRB than the DJ ENSO alone.Therefore,the preceding DJ TPTT can be considered an alternative predictor of the JJ YRB precipitation.

A new formula of recovery factor for non-equilibrium transport of graded suspended sediment in the Middle Yangtze River

Suspended sediment concentrations in the Middle Yangtze River(MYR)reduced greatly after the Three Gorges Project operation,causing the composition of bed material to coarsen continuously.However,little is known about the non-equilibrium transport of graded suspended sediment owing to different bed material compositions(BMCs)along the MYR,and it is necessary to determine the magnitude of recovery factor.Using the Markov stochastic process in conjunction with the hiding-exposure effect of non-uniform bed-material,a new formula is proposed for calculating the recovery factor including the effect of different BMCs,and it is incorporated into the non-equilibrium transport equation to simulate the recovery processes of suspended load in both sand-gravel bed and sand bed reaches of the MYR.The results show that:(i)the recovery rate of graded sediment concentrations at Zhicheng was slower than that at Shashi during the period 2003-2007;(ii)the mean recovery factors of the coarse,medium,and fine sediment fractions in the ZhichengShashi reach were 0.152,0.0012,and 0.0005,respectively,and the coarse sediment recovered up to the maximum sediment concentration of 0.138 kg/m3over a distance of 15 km;and(iii)the results of the new formula that can consider the effect of bed material composition are in general agreement with the field observations,and the spatial and temporal delay effects are inversely related to particle size and BMC.Consequently,the BMC effect on the nonequilibrium sediment transport in different reaches of the MYR needs to be considered for higher simulation accuracy.

3D DBSCAN detection and parameter sensitivity of the 2022 Yangtze river summertime heatwave and drought

极端气候事件的精准识别是机理分析的重要前提.本研究借助无监督机器学习中经典的DBSCAN密度聚类算法,发展了在三维(经度-纬度-时间)空间内进行目标事件识别和参数敏感性分析的研究方案.在2022年长江全域高温伏秋旱事件识别中的应用表明,本次天气尺度极端热浪和季节尺度重旱事件的产生发展,空间传播模式不同.天气尺度热浪信号自6月底从北太平洋向西南方向延伸,直至8月中旬覆盖长江全域;季节重旱信号于7月中旬从孟加拉湾陆面区域向东北向延伸,直至9月中旬覆盖长江全域.同时,本研究中亦进行了相关参数敏感性的详细分析,对算法应用,结果理解亦有帮助.

Anthropogenic activity,hydrological regime,and light level jointly influence temporal patterns in biosonar activity of the Yangtze finless porpoise at the junction of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake,China

Under increasing anthropogenic pressure,species with a previously contiguous distribution across their ranges have been reduced to small fragmented populations.The critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise(Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis),once commonly observed in the Yangtze River-Poyang Lake junction,is now rarely seen in the river-lake corridor.In this study,static passive acoustic monitoring techniques were used to detect the biosonar activities of the Yangtze finless porpoise in this unique corridor.Generalized linear models were used to examine the correlation between these activities and anthropogenic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and boat navigation,as well as environmental variables,including hydrological conditions and light levels.Over approximately three consecutive years of monitoring(2020–2022),porpoise biosonar was detected during 93%of logged days,indicating the key role of the corridor for finless porpoise conservation.In addition,porpoise clicks were recorded in 3.80%of minutes,while feeding correlated buzzes were detected in 1.23%of minutes,suggesting the potential existence of localized,small-scale migration.Furthermore,both anthropogenic and environmental variables were significantly correlated with the diel,lunar,monthly,seasonal,and annual variations in porpoise biosonar activities.During the pandemic lockdown period,porpoise sonar detection showed a significant increase.Furthermore,a significant negative correlation was identified between the detection of porpoise click trains and buzzes and boat traffic intensity.In addition to water level and flux,daylight and moonlight exhibited significant correlations with porpoise biosonar activities,with markedly higher detections at night and quarter moon periods.Ensuring the spatiotemporal reduction of anthropogenic activities,implementing vessel speed restrictions(e.g.,during porpoise migration and feeding),and maintaining local natural hydrological regimes are critical factors for sustaining porpoise population viability.

Effect of Froude similitude deviation on curved channel simulations: A case study in the Middle Yangtze River

Froude similitude and friction similitude are the two crucial similarity conditions that are often used in physical-scale modeling of rivers.However,models often deviate from Froude similitude when dealing with real-world situations.This study developed several fixed-bed river models with various curvatures to determine the effect of Froude similitude deviation on curved channel modeling.Models were constructed according to the characteristics of the Middle Yangtze River.Differences in longitudinal slope,transverse slope,and main stream line location were measured by varying Froude similitude deviation.The deviations of longitudinal slope and velocity were negligible because friction similitude was accounted for.The transverse slope varied significantly with the Froude similitude deviation,and the main stream line varied with the curvature and Froude similitude deviation.Formulae were derived to estimate the slope deviation.These analyses helped to clarify the feasibility of the method of Froude similitude deviation for curved channels.

Spatio-temporal variability of terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River Basin: Response to climate changes

The Yangtze River Basin(YRB)is an important region for China's economic development.However,it has a complex terrain layout,most of which is affected by monsoon weather,and the geographical and temporal distribution of water resources is severely unbalanced.Therefore,the detailed analysis of spatio-temporal water mass changes is helpful to the development and rational utilization of water resources in the YRB.In this study,the variation of terrestrial water storage(TWS)is monitored by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite gravity.We find that the University of Texas Center for Space Research(CSR)solution shows a notable difference with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL)in space,but the general trend is consistent in time series.Then the GRACE inferred water mass variation reveals that the YRB has experienced several drought and flood events over the past two decades.Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)results are similar to GRACE.Furthermore,the overall precipitation trend tends to be stable in space,but it is greatly influenced by the strong El Nino-~Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which is the response to global climate change.The upper YRB is less affected by ENSO and shows a more stable water storage signal with respect to the lower YRB.

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here,we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)reanalysis dataset.Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs)concentrated at heights of 900-1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 2300 LST(LST=UTC+8 hours)but are strongest at 0200 LST,with composite wind velocities>14 m s^(-1).Synoptic-system-related LLJs(SLLJs)occur most frequently at 0800 LST but are strongest at 1100LST,with composite wind velocities>12 m s^(-1).Both BLJs and SLLJs are characterized by a southwesterly wind direction,although the wind direction of SLLJs is more westerly,and northeasterly SLLJs occur more frequently than northeasterly BLJs.When Wuhan is south of the mei-yu front,the westward extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies,and the low-pressure system in the eastern Tibetan Plateau strengthens,favoring the formation of LLJs,which are closely related to precipitation.The wind speeds on rainstorm days are greater than those on LLJ days.Our analysis of four typical heavy precipitation events shows the presence of LLJs at the center of the precipitation and on its southern side before the onset of heavy precipitation.BLJs were shown to develop earlier than SLLJs.

Influence of three types of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley

本文研究了三种来源于印度洋的北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)对长江中下游地区降水的影响.结果表明,在所有BSISO类型中水汽辐合对降水异常的贡献最大.在经典型中,伴随着自副热带西太平洋向西北太平洋传播的正(负)对流异常的气旋(反气旋)使得降水在-2(-1至3)侯减少(增加).在向东扩展型中,由于在印度洋的正(负)对流异常激发的遥响应在西北太平洋引起反气旋(气旋),降水在-2至0(1至3)侯增加(减少).在向北偶极子型中,由于伴随着正(负)对流异常的气旋(反气旋)从中国南海移动到西北太平洋,降水在-2至0(1至3)侯减少(增加).