Dynamic earthquake triggering as a well-documented phenomenon can provide valuable information for studying the stress loading cycle from failure on faults.In this study,seismicity rate changes were investigated in th...Dynamic earthquake triggering as a well-documented phenomenon can provide valuable information for studying the stress loading cycle from failure on faults.In this study,seismicity rate changes were investigated in the Longitudinal Valley fault(LVF)following the 2019 M_(L)5.2 Hualien earthquake,which occurred offshore in eastern Taiwan.After the matched filter technique was applied to continuous waveform data,twice as many microearthquakes were newly detected in the vicinity of the LVF compared with the number listed in the Taiwan Weather Bureau catalog.Seismicity rates in the northern segment of the LVF increased immediately following the Hualien mainshock,which indicated dynamic triggering during the passage of seismic waves.Statistical analysis suggested that following seismic events might be attributed to fault slipping or creeping.These findings show that the observation of earthquake triggering can provide valuable assistance in monitoring the stress perturbations of active faults.展开更多
pplying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment...pplying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment tensor solutions and focal parameters of the earthquake of M=7.3 on 16 September of 1994 in Taiwan Strait and other four quakes of ML5.8 in the near region (21°~26°N, 115°~120°E). Among the five earthquakes, the quake of M=7.3 on September 16, 1994 in Taiwan Strait is the strongest one in the southeastern coast area since Nan′ao earthquake of M=7.3 in 1918. The results show that moment tensor solution of M=7.3 earthquake is mainly doublecouple component, and is normal fault whose fault plane is near NW. The strike of the fault plane resembles that of the distributive bands of earthquakes before the main event and fracture pattern shown by aftershocks. The tension stress axis of focal mechanism is about horizontal, near in NE strike, the compressive stress axis is approximately vertical, near in NWW strike. It seems that this quake is controlled by the force of Philippine plate′s pressing Eurasian plate in NW direction. But from the viewpoint of P axis of near vertical and T axis of near horizontal, it is a normal fault of strong tensibility. There are relatively big difference between focal mechanism solution of this quake and those of the four other strong quakes. The complexity of source mechanism solution of these quakes represents the complexity of the process of the strait earthquake sequences.展开更多
According to the source mechanism of the main shock and the distribution feature of the aftershocks occurring in the southern Taiwan Straits on Sept. 16, 1994, in this paper the authors analysed the source rupture fea...According to the source mechanism of the main shock and the distribution feature of the aftershocks occurring in the southern Taiwan Straits on Sept. 16, 1994, in this paper the authors analysed the source rupture feature of the major earthquake, demonstrated that this seismic sequence possessed the charateristics of a large intraplate earthquake. And according to the seismotectonic background and the historical seismicity in the area, the authors clarified the active characteristics of the seismically active belts along northwestern direction and analysed preliminarily the earthquake circumstance in the southeastern coast of China.展开更多
The paper collects the records by the Fujian Digital Seismic Network of 40 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan with M_S≥5.0 from 1999 to 2013,analyzes the seismic phase(Pn,Sn phase)characteristics and travel-time rules,det...The paper collects the records by the Fujian Digital Seismic Network of 40 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan with M_S≥5.0 from 1999 to 2013,analyzes the seismic phase(Pn,Sn phase)characteristics and travel-time rules,determines travel-time models and develops a seismic phase travel-time equation based on the two-step fitting algorithm.With the deduction of processing time and network delay time,this method can provide an accurate estimation of early warning time of Taiwan earthquakes for the Fujian region,and has been officially employed in the earthquake early warning system of Fujian Province.展开更多
Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on ...Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.展开更多
Inversion for the seismic fault rupture history is an important way to study the nature of the earthquake source. Inthis paper, we have selected two Taiwan earthquakes that occurred closely in time and located in the ...Inversion for the seismic fault rupture history is an important way to study the nature of the earthquake source. Inthis paper, we have selected two Taiwan earthquakes that occurred closely in time and located in the same region,inversed the distribution of the slip amplitudes, rakes, risetimes and the rupture times on the fault planes by usingGDSN broad-band and long-period records and the adaptive hybrid global search algorithm, and compared the twoevents. The slip rate of every subfault calculated provides information about the distribution of tectonic stress andfault strength. To the former event (Ms=6.0), the maximum slip amplitude 2.4 m and the minimum risetime 1.2 sare both located at the hypocentre. The latter earthquake (Ms=6.6) consisted of two subevents and the second source has 4 s delay. The maximum slip amplitUde 0.9 m located near hypocentre is corresponding to the minimumrisetime l.4 s, and the corresponding maximum slip rate 0.7 m.s~-1 is similar to the peak value of other large sliprate areas. We consider that the latter event has more complicated temporal-spatial distribution than the former.展开更多
A cluster of earthquakes occurred in the Taiwan Shoal region on the outer rise of the Manila Trench. Although most were of small to medium magnitudes, one strong earthquake occurred on September 16, 1994. Several prev...A cluster of earthquakes occurred in the Taiwan Shoal region on the outer rise of the Manila Trench. Although most were of small to medium magnitudes, one strong earthquake occurred on September 16, 1994. Several previous studies have provided important information to progress our understanding of this single earthquake. However, little is currently known about the earthquake cluster, and it is necessary to investigate the deep crustal structure of the Taiwan Shoal region to understand the mechanisms involved in controlling and generating it. This study presents a two-dimensional seismic tomographic image of the crustal structure along the OBS2012 profile based on ocean-bottom seismograph(OBS) data, which exhibits a high-velocity anomaly flanked by low-velocity anomalies in the upper crust beneath the Taiwan Shoal. In this study, 765 earthquakes(Richter magnitude ML > 1.5) occurring between 1991 and 2015 were studied and analyses of earthquake epicenters, regional faults, and the crustal structure provides an improved understanding of the nature of active tectonics in this region. Results of analyses indicate firstly that the high-velocity area represents major asperities that correspond to the location of the earthquake cluster and where stress is concentrated. It is also depicted that the earthquake cluster was influenced by fault interactions. However, the September 1994 earthquake occurred independently of these seismic activities and was associated with reactivation of a preexisting fault. It is also determined that slab pull is resisted by the exposed precollision accretionary prism, and the resistive force is causing accumulation of inplane compressive-stress. This may trigger a future damaging earthquake in the Taiwan Shoal region.展开更多
Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When...Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M_≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M_s=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M_s=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M_s=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The windows of 'activity in quiescence' identified statistically by us are 1940-1945, 1958-1961 and 1979-1986. Using the 'criterion of activity in quiescence' to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China,the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M_s=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.展开更多
Short wave gravity anomaly is correlated to sea floor topography in the gravity field of ×Taiwan and its adjacent seas. Gravity values of 20010-5ms-2 at Yushang and -×16010-5ms-2 at Liuqiu sea trench are res...Short wave gravity anomaly is correlated to sea floor topography in the gravity field of ×Taiwan and its adjacent seas. Gravity values of 20010-5ms-2 at Yushang and -×16010-5ms-2 at Liuqiu sea trench are respectively the maximum and minimum gravity values in this area. Bouguer gravity anomaly reflects not only Moho interface undulation, but also fault distribution. The inflexion of gradient belt of Bouguer gravity anomaly is a spot liable to earthquakes . Middle-long wave geoid is the best data to invert crustal thickness. We calculate crustal thickness by using geoid data, and the maximum value is 38km; the minimum value is 12km in Taiwan and its adjacent seas.展开更多
Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic ha...Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic hazard prevention and textual research of historical earthquakes. The results show that the frequency of strong earthquake in Taiwan Region is high,with a time interval ranging from several to dozens of years,but the maximum influence intensity of seismicity from there to the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland is only VI degree; while the maximum influence intensity of the seismicity along the littoral fault zone located on the west of the straits reaches VIII ~ IX degree because of the shorter distance to the Chinese mainland,though the frequency of strong earthquakes is lower than that of the Taiwan Region. Strategies for protecting against seismic hazards in the southeastern coastal area of China are proposed. Besides focusing on the effect of strong earthquakes of the littoral fault zone,attention also has to be paid to the low-cycle fatigue failure of engineering structures induced by the earthquakes in Taiwan and the stir effect on society induced by earthquake phobia. It is concluded that it would be more accurate and proper to take the May 19,1517 earthquake recorded in the Chinese mainland area as the influence of a strong earthquake in the Taiwan Region.展开更多
It has been long discussed already about the characteristics of the recent earthquake of the Xiamen Jinmen district. However, attention should be paid to that a large shock unexpected before such as the 1999 Chi Chi e...It has been long discussed already about the characteristics of the recent earthquake of the Xiamen Jinmen district. However, attention should be paid to that a large shock unexpected before such as the 1999 Chi Chi earthquake in Taiwan west plain would take place in this area and its neighborhood, affecting the stability of the construction during the long duration after completion and usage of the future Xiaman Jinmen Bridge. The probability of such case should be considered from studying the earthquake mechanism of the surrounding regions: The Taiwan Strait basin, Taiwan region (Taiwan island) and Fujian coastal region respectively. In this paper the features of earthquakes which occurred and will occur in any one of these three districts and then their influences on the construction of the future Xiamen Jinmen Bridge are described and discussed.展开更多
The September 21, 1999, Jiji (Chi-Chi) Mw7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China. It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan. Based on several vers...The September 21, 1999, Jiji (Chi-Chi) Mw7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China. It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan. Based on several versions of China earthquake catalogue this study found that a seismic gap of M≥5 earthquakes appeared, in and around the epicenter region, 24 years before and lasted up to the mainshock occurrence. This study also noticed that there existed a lager seismically quiet region of M≥4 earthquakes, which lasted for about 2.5 years before the mainshock occurrence, The spatial variation pattern of regional seismicity before the mainshock seems to match with its coseismic source rupture process. The mentioned seismicity gap and seismic quiescence might be an indication of the preparation process of the Jiji strong earthquake.展开更多
Taiwan is a young orogenic belt with complex spatial distributions of deformation and earthquakes. We have constructed a three-dimensional finite element model to explore how the interplays between lithospheric struc-...Taiwan is a young orogenic belt with complex spatial distributions of deformation and earthquakes. We have constructed a three-dimensional finite element model to explore how the interplays between lithospheric struc- ture and plate boundary processes control the distribution of stress and strain rates in the Taiwan region. The model assumes a liberalized power-law rheology and incorporates main lithospheric structures; the model domain is loaded by the present-day crustal velocity applied at its bound- aries. The model successfully reproduces the main features of the GPS-measured strain rate patterns and the earth- quake-indicated stress states in the Taiwan region. The best fitting model requires the viscosity of the lower crust to be two orders of magnitude lower than that of the upper crust and lithospheric mantle. The calculated deviatoric stress is high in regions of thrust faulting and low in regions of extensional and strike-slip faulting, consistent with the spatial pattern of seismic intensity in Taiwan.展开更多
In this study,Bayesian probability method and machine learning model are used to study the real occurrence probability of earthquake-induced landslide risk in Taiwan region.The analyses were based on the 1999 Taiwan C...In this study,Bayesian probability method and machine learning model are used to study the real occurrence probability of earthquake-induced landslide risk in Taiwan region.The analyses were based on the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake,the largest earthquake in the history in this Region in a hundred years,thus can provide better control on the prediction accuracy of the model.This seismic event has detailed and complete seismic landslide inventories identified by polygons,including 9272 seismic landslide records.Taking into account the real earthquake landslide occurrence area,the difference in landslide area and the non-sliding/sliding sample ratios and other factors,a total of 13,656,000 model training samples were selected.We also considered other seismic landslide influencing factors,including elevation,slope,aspect,topographic wetness index,lithology,distance to fault,peak ground acceleration and rainfall.Bayesian probability method and machine learning model were combined to establish the multi-factor influence of earthquake landslide occurrence model.The model is then applied to the whole Taiwan region using different ground motion peak accelerations(from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with 0.1 g intervals)as a triggering factor to complete the real probability of earthquake landslide map in Taiwan under different peak ground accelerations,and the functional relationship between different Peak Ground Acceleration and their predicted area is obtained.展开更多
A major earthquake occurrence zone means a place where M ≥6 events have occurred since the Holocene and similar shocks may happen again in the future. The dynamic context of the major earthquake occurrence zones in C...A major earthquake occurrence zone means a place where M ≥6 events have occurred since the Holocene and similar shocks may happen again in the future. The dynamic context of the major earthquake occurrence zones in China is primarily associated with the NNE-directed push of the India plate, next with the westward subduction of the Pacific plate. The Chinese mainland is a grand mosaic structure of many crust blocks bounded by faults and sutures. When it is suffered from boundary stresses, deformation takes place along these faults or sutures while the block interiors remain relatively stable or intact. Since the Quaternary, for example, left slip on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone in southwestern China has produced a number of fault-depression basins in extensional areas during periods Q1 and Q2. In the Q3, the change of stress orientation and enhancement of tectonic movement made faults of varied trends link each other, and continued to be active till present day, producing active fanlt zones in this region. Usually major earthquakes occur at some special locations on these active fault zones. During these events, in the epicenter areas experience intensive deformation character- ized by large-amplitude rise and fall of neighboring sections, generation of horst-graben systems and dammed rivers. The studies on palaeoearthquakes suggest that major shocks of close magnitudes often repeated for several times at a same place. By comparison of the Chi-Chi, Taiwan event in 1999 and Yuza, Yunnan event in 1955, including contours of accelerations and intensities, destruction of buildings, and in contrast to the Xigeda formation in southwestern China, a sandwich model is established to account for the mechanism of deformation caused by major earthquakes. This model consists of three layers, i.e. the two walls of a fault and the ruptured zone intercalated between them. This ruptured zone is just the loci where stress is built up and released, and serves as a channel for seismic waves.展开更多
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Founds for National University,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)(No.1910491T09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42074061).
文摘Dynamic earthquake triggering as a well-documented phenomenon can provide valuable information for studying the stress loading cycle from failure on faults.In this study,seismicity rate changes were investigated in the Longitudinal Valley fault(LVF)following the 2019 M_(L)5.2 Hualien earthquake,which occurred offshore in eastern Taiwan.After the matched filter technique was applied to continuous waveform data,twice as many microearthquakes were newly detected in the vicinity of the LVF compared with the number listed in the Taiwan Weather Bureau catalog.Seismicity rates in the northern segment of the LVF increased immediately following the Hualien mainshock,which indicated dynamic triggering during the passage of seismic waves.Statistical analysis suggested that following seismic events might be attributed to fault slipping or creeping.These findings show that the observation of earthquake triggering can provide valuable assistance in monitoring the stress perturbations of active faults.
文摘pplying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment tensor solutions and focal parameters of the earthquake of M=7.3 on 16 September of 1994 in Taiwan Strait and other four quakes of ML5.8 in the near region (21°~26°N, 115°~120°E). Among the five earthquakes, the quake of M=7.3 on September 16, 1994 in Taiwan Strait is the strongest one in the southeastern coast area since Nan′ao earthquake of M=7.3 in 1918. The results show that moment tensor solution of M=7.3 earthquake is mainly doublecouple component, and is normal fault whose fault plane is near NW. The strike of the fault plane resembles that of the distributive bands of earthquakes before the main event and fracture pattern shown by aftershocks. The tension stress axis of focal mechanism is about horizontal, near in NE strike, the compressive stress axis is approximately vertical, near in NWW strike. It seems that this quake is controlled by the force of Philippine plate′s pressing Eurasian plate in NW direction. But from the viewpoint of P axis of near vertical and T axis of near horizontal, it is a normal fault of strong tensibility. There are relatively big difference between focal mechanism solution of this quake and those of the four other strong quakes. The complexity of source mechanism solution of these quakes represents the complexity of the process of the strait earthquake sequences.
文摘According to the source mechanism of the main shock and the distribution feature of the aftershocks occurring in the southern Taiwan Straits on Sept. 16, 1994, in this paper the authors analysed the source rupture feature of the major earthquake, demonstrated that this seismic sequence possessed the charateristics of a large intraplate earthquake. And according to the seismotectonic background and the historical seismicity in the area, the authors clarified the active characteristics of the seismically active belts along northwestern direction and analysed preliminarily the earthquake circumstance in the southeastern coast of China.
基金funded by the Spark Program of Earthquake Sciences (XH13012)China Earthquake Administration,and a Key Scientific and Technological Program of Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province (201202)
文摘The paper collects the records by the Fujian Digital Seismic Network of 40 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan with M_S≥5.0 from 1999 to 2013,analyzes the seismic phase(Pn,Sn phase)characteristics and travel-time rules,determines travel-time models and develops a seismic phase travel-time equation based on the two-step fitting algorithm.With the deduction of processing time and network delay time,this method can provide an accurate estimation of early warning time of Taiwan earthquakes for the Fujian region,and has been officially employed in the earthquake early warning system of Fujian Province.
基金sponsored jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U0933006),National Natural Science Foundation of China(41006030,41176054)the Special Research Program(908Program)of Guangdong Province(GD908-JC-03,GD908-JC-10)
文摘Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.
文摘Inversion for the seismic fault rupture history is an important way to study the nature of the earthquake source. Inthis paper, we have selected two Taiwan earthquakes that occurred closely in time and located in the same region,inversed the distribution of the slip amplitudes, rakes, risetimes and the rupture times on the fault planes by usingGDSN broad-band and long-period records and the adaptive hybrid global search algorithm, and compared the twoevents. The slip rate of every subfault calculated provides information about the distribution of tectonic stress andfault strength. To the former event (Ms=6.0), the maximum slip amplitude 2.4 m and the minimum risetime 1.2 sare both located at the hypocentre. The latter earthquake (Ms=6.6) consisted of two subevents and the second source has 4 s delay. The maximum slip amplitUde 0.9 m located near hypocentre is corresponding to the minimumrisetime l.4 s, and the corresponding maximum slip rate 0.7 m.s~-1 is similar to the peak value of other large sliprate areas. We consider that the latter event has more complicated temporal-spatial distribution than the former.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA13010101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 91328206, 41676042, 41376060, and 41506046)
文摘A cluster of earthquakes occurred in the Taiwan Shoal region on the outer rise of the Manila Trench. Although most were of small to medium magnitudes, one strong earthquake occurred on September 16, 1994. Several previous studies have provided important information to progress our understanding of this single earthquake. However, little is currently known about the earthquake cluster, and it is necessary to investigate the deep crustal structure of the Taiwan Shoal region to understand the mechanisms involved in controlling and generating it. This study presents a two-dimensional seismic tomographic image of the crustal structure along the OBS2012 profile based on ocean-bottom seismograph(OBS) data, which exhibits a high-velocity anomaly flanked by low-velocity anomalies in the upper crust beneath the Taiwan Shoal. In this study, 765 earthquakes(Richter magnitude ML > 1.5) occurring between 1991 and 2015 were studied and analyses of earthquake epicenters, regional faults, and the crustal structure provides an improved understanding of the nature of active tectonics in this region. Results of analyses indicate firstly that the high-velocity area represents major asperities that correspond to the location of the earthquake cluster and where stress is concentrated. It is also depicted that the earthquake cluster was influenced by fault interactions. However, the September 1994 earthquake occurred independently of these seismic activities and was associated with reactivation of a preexisting fault. It is also determined that slab pull is resisted by the exposed precollision accretionary prism, and the resistive force is causing accumulation of inplane compressive-stress. This may trigger a future damaging earthquake in the Taiwan Shoal region.
基金State Natural Science Foundation of China!(49674210).
文摘Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M_≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M_s=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M_s=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M_s=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The windows of 'activity in quiescence' identified statistically by us are 1940-1945, 1958-1961 and 1979-1986. Using the 'criterion of activity in quiescence' to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China,the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M_s=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.
文摘Short wave gravity anomaly is correlated to sea floor topography in the gravity field of ×Taiwan and its adjacent seas. Gravity values of 20010-5ms-2 at Yushang and -×16010-5ms-2 at Liuqiu sea trench are respectively the maximum and minimum gravity values in this area. Bouguer gravity anomaly reflects not only Moho interface undulation, but also fault distribution. The inflexion of gradient belt of Bouguer gravity anomaly is a spot liable to earthquakes . Middle-long wave geoid is the best data to invert crustal thickness. We calculate crustal thickness by using geoid data, and the maximum value is 38km; the minimum value is 12km in Taiwan and its adjacent seas.
基金sponsored by the Special Project of Seismic Industry,Study on the Seismic Safety of Nuclear Power Plant (200708003)
文摘Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic hazard prevention and textual research of historical earthquakes. The results show that the frequency of strong earthquake in Taiwan Region is high,with a time interval ranging from several to dozens of years,but the maximum influence intensity of seismicity from there to the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland is only VI degree; while the maximum influence intensity of the seismicity along the littoral fault zone located on the west of the straits reaches VIII ~ IX degree because of the shorter distance to the Chinese mainland,though the frequency of strong earthquakes is lower than that of the Taiwan Region. Strategies for protecting against seismic hazards in the southeastern coastal area of China are proposed. Besides focusing on the effect of strong earthquakes of the littoral fault zone,attention also has to be paid to the low-cycle fatigue failure of engineering structures induced by the earthquakes in Taiwan and the stir effect on society induced by earthquake phobia. It is concluded that it would be more accurate and proper to take the May 19,1517 earthquake recorded in the Chinese mainland area as the influence of a strong earthquake in the Taiwan Region.
文摘It has been long discussed already about the characteristics of the recent earthquake of the Xiamen Jinmen district. However, attention should be paid to that a large shock unexpected before such as the 1999 Chi Chi earthquake in Taiwan west plain would take place in this area and its neighborhood, affecting the stability of the construction during the long duration after completion and usage of the future Xiaman Jinmen Bridge. The probability of such case should be considered from studying the earthquake mechanism of the surrounding regions: The Taiwan Strait basin, Taiwan region (Taiwan island) and Fujian coastal region respectively. In this paper the features of earthquakes which occurred and will occur in any one of these three districts and then their influences on the construction of the future Xiamen Jinmen Bridge are described and discussed.
文摘The September 21, 1999, Jiji (Chi-Chi) Mw7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China. It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan. Based on several versions of China earthquake catalogue this study found that a seismic gap of M≥5 earthquakes appeared, in and around the epicenter region, 24 years before and lasted up to the mainshock occurrence. This study also noticed that there existed a lager seismically quiet region of M≥4 earthquakes, which lasted for about 2.5 years before the mainshock occurrence, The spatial variation pattern of regional seismicity before the mainshock seems to match with its coseismic source rupture process. The mentioned seismicity gap and seismic quiescence might be an indication of the preparation process of the Jiji strong earthquake.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41204066)China Geological Survey(Nos.12120114002101,12120114002401)+1 种基金Deep Exploration in China(SinoProbe-08-01,SinoProbe-07)the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams
文摘Taiwan is a young orogenic belt with complex spatial distributions of deformation and earthquakes. We have constructed a three-dimensional finite element model to explore how the interplays between lithospheric struc- ture and plate boundary processes control the distribution of stress and strain rates in the Taiwan region. The model assumes a liberalized power-law rheology and incorporates main lithospheric structures; the model domain is loaded by the present-day crustal velocity applied at its bound- aries. The model successfully reproduces the main features of the GPS-measured strain rate patterns and the earth- quake-indicated stress states in the Taiwan region. The best fitting model requires the viscosity of the lower crust to be two orders of magnitude lower than that of the upper crust and lithospheric mantle. The calculated deviatoric stress is high in regions of thrust faulting and low in regions of extensional and strike-slip faulting, consistent with the spatial pattern of seismic intensity in Taiwan.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1504703)。
文摘In this study,Bayesian probability method and machine learning model are used to study the real occurrence probability of earthquake-induced landslide risk in Taiwan region.The analyses were based on the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake,the largest earthquake in the history in this Region in a hundred years,thus can provide better control on the prediction accuracy of the model.This seismic event has detailed and complete seismic landslide inventories identified by polygons,including 9272 seismic landslide records.Taking into account the real earthquake landslide occurrence area,the difference in landslide area and the non-sliding/sliding sample ratios and other factors,a total of 13,656,000 model training samples were selected.We also considered other seismic landslide influencing factors,including elevation,slope,aspect,topographic wetness index,lithology,distance to fault,peak ground acceleration and rainfall.Bayesian probability method and machine learning model were combined to establish the multi-factor influence of earthquake landslide occurrence model.The model is then applied to the whole Taiwan region using different ground motion peak accelerations(from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with 0.1 g intervals)as a triggering factor to complete the real probability of earthquake landslide map in Taiwan under different peak ground accelerations,and the functional relationship between different Peak Ground Acceleration and their predicted area is obtained.
文摘A major earthquake occurrence zone means a place where M ≥6 events have occurred since the Holocene and similar shocks may happen again in the future. The dynamic context of the major earthquake occurrence zones in China is primarily associated with the NNE-directed push of the India plate, next with the westward subduction of the Pacific plate. The Chinese mainland is a grand mosaic structure of many crust blocks bounded by faults and sutures. When it is suffered from boundary stresses, deformation takes place along these faults or sutures while the block interiors remain relatively stable or intact. Since the Quaternary, for example, left slip on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone in southwestern China has produced a number of fault-depression basins in extensional areas during periods Q1 and Q2. In the Q3, the change of stress orientation and enhancement of tectonic movement made faults of varied trends link each other, and continued to be active till present day, producing active fanlt zones in this region. Usually major earthquakes occur at some special locations on these active fault zones. During these events, in the epicenter areas experience intensive deformation character- ized by large-amplitude rise and fall of neighboring sections, generation of horst-graben systems and dammed rivers. The studies on palaeoearthquakes suggest that major shocks of close magnitudes often repeated for several times at a same place. By comparison of the Chi-Chi, Taiwan event in 1999 and Yuza, Yunnan event in 1955, including contours of accelerations and intensities, destruction of buildings, and in contrast to the Xigeda formation in southwestern China, a sandwich model is established to account for the mechanism of deformation caused by major earthquakes. This model consists of three layers, i.e. the two walls of a fault and the ruptured zone intercalated between them. This ruptured zone is just the loci where stress is built up and released, and serves as a channel for seismic waves.