Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications for policymakers. We collec...Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications for policymakers. We collected panel data from China ＇s 31 provinces2 over the period 1990 to 2009 and conducted empirical test according to Minami＇s criteria. Our results indicate that China＇s economy has passed the first Lewisian turning point but do not provide evidence that China has reached the second Lewisian turning point.展开更多
This paper uses age-related productivity gaps to analyze the Lewis turning point in China. The age-related productivity gap implies that under same wage rate, older and less productive rural laborers working in cities...This paper uses age-related productivity gaps to analyze the Lewis turning point in China. The age-related productivity gap implies that under same wage rate, older and less productive rural laborers working in cities will earn less than the reservation wage. Thus, they may elect instead to return to the countryside. Therefore, this paper argues that while the supply of younger, high-productivity migrant workers fails demand and Lewis turning point emerges, there still exists a high volume of lower-productivity rural surplus labor.展开更多
Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor f...Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewis turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross- country panel data shows that the Lewis turning point is reached when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between US$3,000 and US$4,000 dollars （PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000）. GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor in the total labor force remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This may imply that there is still considerable potential for rural labor transfer in China.展开更多
Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migra...Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migration of rural labor force was still far away from ＂Lewis turning point＂, and ＂mingong huang＂ （ shortage of peasant workforce） appearing in coastal areas could be explained with the location separation between the labor-intensive industries and rural labor force. It was a feasible and an effective way to push forward the transfer of labor-intensive industries from the east coast to central and Western China to absorb the abundant supply of rural labor force.展开更多
In the context of the labor market segmentation in China and its reaching the Lewis turning point,this paper interprets the changing trend of the labor share of income in China from the changing perspective of the emp...In the context of the labor market segmentation in China and its reaching the Lewis turning point,this paper interprets the changing trend of the labor share of income in China from the changing perspective of the employment ownership structure.The theoretical analysis reveals that the labor share of income follows a U-shaped curve when the agricultural labor force gradually moves into the private and self-employed sectors.Using the Chinese provincial-level panel dataset between 1990 and 2016,our empirical study finds that there is a critical threshold.When the share of agricultural labor force is above this threshold value,the impact of the increase in the employment share of the urban private sector on the labor share of income is negative.In contrast,the impact becomes positive when the share of the agricultural labor force is less than or equal to this threshold value.Moreover,the impacts of other variables of employment ownership structure don’t show this kind of feature on both sides of this threshold value.The increase in the employment share of the urban private sector accounted for about 29.37%of the growing labor share of income between 2007 and 2016.This paper provides policy implications in the following four areas:institutional guarantee improvement,harmonious labor relations establishment,redistribution policy imposition and economic development pattern transformation.展开更多
There is no convincing evidence to prove that China＇s Lewis turning point （LTP） arrived in 2004-2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China ...There is no convincing evidence to prove that China＇s Lewis turning point （LTP） arrived in 2004-2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 70,000 rural households and following the method proposed by Minami （1968） to identify the Lewis turning point in Japan, the present study reassessed the reaching of the LTP in China and found that China＇s economy reached the LTP around 2010. From a regional perspective, China ＂s eastern region reached the LTP in 2010 and its central and western regions are now approaching the turning point. After arriving at the LTP, China＇s rural economy will face three key tasks.＂ safeguarding grain security, promoting economic restructuring and realizing agricultural modernization. To cope with the shortage of human capital in agriculture production and the challenge of the tight balance between grain supply and demand, the Chinese Government should improve the human capital training system, accelerate agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain security.展开更多
Farmers’ citizenization concerns three logical aspects. First, farmers’ viability determines whether they can truly be citizenized and whether they can realize scale management of rural land. Second, farmers’ viabi...Farmers’ citizenization concerns three logical aspects. First, farmers’ viability determines whether they can truly be citizenized and whether they can realize scale management of rural land. Second, farmers’ viability also determines the time for the realization of scale management of rural land and subsequently determines the coming of the Lewis turning point and commercialization point. Third, the key to viability’s coming into play lies in the government’s institutional supply. Citizenization is in step with the long process of scale management of farmland, the coming of the Lewis turning point and commercialization point, the eventual eradication of the impact of the household registration system, and the development of professional farmers. Farmers’ viability is the ultimate key to such synchronized challenges. There are two approaches to the enhancement of farmers’ viability. The first is “to invest in farmers” and the second is to alleviate the existing household registration system’s constraints on farmers. The first approach outweighs the second, for its quintessential essence is to increase farmers’ per capita capital, enhance their viability and transform China from a country with vast human resources into a country with quality human resources.展开更多
基金This paper was supported by the National Social Science Foundation （07BJY049） the Ministry of Education Project of Humanities and Social Science （06JA630058） and ＂211 Project＂ of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.
文摘Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications for policymakers. We collected panel data from China ＇s 31 provinces2 over the period 1990 to 2009 and conducted empirical test according to Minami＇s criteria. Our results indicate that China＇s economy has passed the first Lewisian turning point but do not provide evidence that China has reached the second Lewisian turning point.
文摘This paper uses age-related productivity gaps to analyze the Lewis turning point in China. The age-related productivity gap implies that under same wage rate, older and less productive rural laborers working in cities will earn less than the reservation wage. Thus, they may elect instead to return to the countryside. Therefore, this paper argues that while the supply of younger, high-productivity migrant workers fails demand and Lewis turning point emerges, there still exists a high volume of lower-productivity rural surplus labor.
基金the National Social Science Major Project (No. 20105010118)
文摘Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewis turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross- country panel data shows that the Lewis turning point is reached when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between US$3,000 and US$4,000 dollars （PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000）. GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor in the total labor force remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This may imply that there is still considerable potential for rural labor transfer in China.
文摘Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migration of rural labor force was still far away from ＂Lewis turning point＂, and ＂mingong huang＂ （ shortage of peasant workforce） appearing in coastal areas could be explained with the location separation between the labor-intensive industries and rural labor force. It was a feasible and an effective way to push forward the transfer of labor-intensive industries from the east coast to central and Western China to absorb the abundant supply of rural labor force.
基金The authors acknowledge the sponsorship of National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(71625001)Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71631004)China Scholarship Council(CSC)Scholarships(201806310057).
文摘In the context of the labor market segmentation in China and its reaching the Lewis turning point,this paper interprets the changing trend of the labor share of income in China from the changing perspective of the employment ownership structure.The theoretical analysis reveals that the labor share of income follows a U-shaped curve when the agricultural labor force gradually moves into the private and self-employed sectors.Using the Chinese provincial-level panel dataset between 1990 and 2016,our empirical study finds that there is a critical threshold.When the share of agricultural labor force is above this threshold value,the impact of the increase in the employment share of the urban private sector on the labor share of income is negative.In contrast,the impact becomes positive when the share of the agricultural labor force is less than or equal to this threshold value.Moreover,the impacts of other variables of employment ownership structure don’t show this kind of feature on both sides of this threshold value.The increase in the employment share of the urban private sector accounted for about 29.37%of the growing labor share of income between 2007 and 2016.This paper provides policy implications in the following four areas:institutional guarantee improvement,harmonious labor relations establishment,redistribution policy imposition and economic development pattern transformation.
文摘There is no convincing evidence to prove that China＇s Lewis turning point （LTP） arrived in 2004-2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 70,000 rural households and following the method proposed by Minami （1968） to identify the Lewis turning point in Japan, the present study reassessed the reaching of the LTP in China and found that China＇s economy reached the LTP around 2010. From a regional perspective, China ＂s eastern region reached the LTP in 2010 and its central and western regions are now approaching the turning point. After arriving at the LTP, China＇s rural economy will face three key tasks.＂ safeguarding grain security, promoting economic restructuring and realizing agricultural modernization. To cope with the shortage of human capital in agriculture production and the challenge of the tight balance between grain supply and demand, the Chinese Government should improve the human capital training system, accelerate agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain security.
文摘Farmers’ citizenization concerns three logical aspects. First, farmers’ viability determines whether they can truly be citizenized and whether they can realize scale management of rural land. Second, farmers’ viability also determines the time for the realization of scale management of rural land and subsequently determines the coming of the Lewis turning point and commercialization point. Third, the key to viability’s coming into play lies in the government’s institutional supply. Citizenization is in step with the long process of scale management of farmland, the coming of the Lewis turning point and commercialization point, the eventual eradication of the impact of the household registration system, and the development of professional farmers. Farmers’ viability is the ultimate key to such synchronized challenges. There are two approaches to the enhancement of farmers’ viability. The first is “to invest in farmers” and the second is to alleviate the existing household registration system’s constraints on farmers. The first approach outweighs the second, for its quintessential essence is to increase farmers’ per capita capital, enhance their viability and transform China from a country with vast human resources into a country with quality human resources.
