Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Channel change at Toudaoguai Station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River

The application of dams built upstream will change the input conditions, including water and sediment, of downstream fluvial system, and destroy previous dynamic quasi-equilibrium reached by channel streamflow, so indispensable adjustments are necessary for downstream channel to adapt to the new water and sediment supply, leading the fluvial system to restore its previous equilibrium or reach a new equilibrium. Using about 50-year-long hydrological, sedimentary and cross-sectional data, temporal response processes of Toudaoguai cross-section located in the upper Yellow River to the operation of reservoirs built upstream are analyzed. The results show that the Toudaoguai cross-section change was influenced strongly by upstream reservoir operation and downstream channel bed armoring thereafter occurred gradually and extended to the reach below Sanhuhekou gauging station. Besides, median diameter of suspended sediment load experienced a three-stage change that is characterized by an increase at first, then a decrease and an increase again finally, which reflects the process of channel bed armoring that began at Qingtongxia reservoir and then gradually developed downstream to the reach below Sanhuhekou cross-section. Since the joint operation strategy of Longyangxia, Liujiaxia and Qingtongxia reservoirs was introduced in 1986, the three-stage change trend has become less evident than that in the time period between 1969 and 1986 when only Qingtongxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs were put into operation alone. In addition, since 1987, the extent of lateral migration and thalweg elevation change at Toudaoguai cross-section has reduced dramatically, cross-sectional profile and location tended to be stable, which is beneficial to the normal living for local people.

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River

To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes,it is essential to(i)accurately identify how past conditions of water and sediment have impacted current morphological adjustment of the river,and(ii)establish a corresponding simulation for non-equilibrium conditions.Based on discharge and suspended sediment concentration(SSC)as well as 82 cross-sectional data items for the Huayuankou-Lijin reach of the Lower Yellow River in the period 1965-2015,the process of adjustment of the geometry of the main channel(area,width,depth,and geomorphic coefficient),and its responses to changes in discharge and SSC for different reaches are statistically analyzed.Following this,a delayed response model(DRM)of the geometry of the main channel subjected to variations in discharge and SSC is established using a multi-step analytical model,with the discharge and SSC as the main controlling factors.The results show that the area,width,and depth of the main channel decreased initially,then increased,decreased again,and finally increased again.These features of the geometry of the channel were positively correlated with the 4-year moving average discharge and negatively with the 4-year moving average SSC.The geomorphic coefficient for the Huayuankou-Sunkou reach exhibited a trend of decrease,whereas that of the Sunkou-Lijin reach decreased initially,then increased,decreased again,and finally increased again.Except for the Huayuankou-Gaocun reach in 1965-1999,the coefficient was negatively correlated with the 4-year moving average discharge and positively with SSC.The simulated values of the morphological parameters of the main channel for all sub-reaches obtained using the DRM agreed well with the measured values.This indicates that the DRM can be used to simulate the process of response of the cross-sectional geometry of the main channel to variations in the water and sediment.The results of the model show that the adjustment of the geometry of the main channel was affected by the discharge and the SSC at present(30%)as well as for the previous 7 years(70%).The proposed model offers insights into the mechanism whereby past water and sediment influence the current morphological adjustment of the river,and provides an effective method for predicting the magnitude and trend of the geometry of the main channel under different flow conditions.

黄河流域山东段国土空间格局演变及驱动因素研究

以黄河流域山东段为研究区,结合2000—2020年土地利用数据和社会经济统计数据,从规模特征、动态变化和分布特征等方面对国土空间时空演变格局进行多维度定量分析,并采用地理探测器探析其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)规模特征方面,除乡村生活空间规模相对稳定外,其他各类国土空间增减特征显著;(2)动态变化方面,不同国土空间类型间的动态变化差异明显,且各区县单元综合动态度呈现东北高、西南低、中部突出的特征;(3)分布特征方面,各国土空间面积变化具有显著的空间集聚特征,这一特征在2010—2020年相对减弱;(4)驱动因素方面,研究区国土空间面积变化受到地形地貌、水热状况、区位情况以及社会经济等多种因素的共同影响,自然环境因素是国土空间格局演变的重要地理基础,社会经济发展则发挥着关键的推动作用。

植被NPP时空变化及其对气候变化的响应——以黄河内蒙古段为例

研究黄河内蒙古段植被净初级生产力(NPP)时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应,为黄河流域环境保护、生态修复等提供科学依据。基于MOD17A3和气象站点资料,运用趋势分析、偏差分析、变异系数、相关分析、残差分析等方法,探讨2002—2021年植被NPP时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)植被NPP呈波动增加趋势,2011年以前以负偏离为主,2012年以后以正偏离为主。(2)植被NPP平均值为169.15 gC·(m~2·a)^(-1),自西向东递增,101~250 gC·(m~2·a)^(-1)区域占总面积的77.0%,裸地﹤灌木﹤其他﹤草地﹤农田﹤林地。69.1%的区域植被NPP变异系数Cv≤0.2,整体稳定性较好。(3)植被NPP与气温平均偏相关系数为0.31,仅有6.7%的区域通过了0.01的显著性检验;与降水量平均偏相关系数为0.62,有81.1%的区域通过了0.01的显著性检验。说明降水量是影响研究区植被NPP显著增加的主要气候因子。(4)气候变化与人类活动共同导致植被NPP的变化。

黄河流域(山东段)村镇聚落文化景观基因识别指标体系构建

黄河流域(山东段)村镇聚落孕育了丰富独特的文化景观,建立识别指标体系对其文化景观基因进行挖掘整理,对在黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略背景下赓续传统文化具有重要意义。结合景观基因理论的研究成果和对国家有关政策法规文件的剖析,在历史景观视角下对黄河流域(山东段)的村镇聚落开展深入的文化景观田野调查、典籍研究等,提出具有针对性的文化景观基因识别指标体系构建逻辑,通过“识别对象—识别因子—识别指标”解析出13项识别因子、40项识别指标,为黄河流域村镇聚落文化景观识别全覆盖提供新的思路与方法。

黄河包头段冻融期水体荧蒽残留及光降解行为

作者分别于流凌期、封河期及开河期,采集黄河包头段干流水体样品,分析该河段荧蒽(Fla)的残留水平及时空变异特性,通过光降解实验探究Fla的降解过程及光敏化剂对降解行为的影响。结果表明,冻融过程中8个采样断面均有Fla检出,且未超过标准值。大部分采样点Fla含量在稳定封河期及开河期较高,各个采样点Fla含量在0.05水平上具有显著性差异,S2、S5断面浓度相对较高,S4、S6和S7点浓度较低。水中Fla可以发生直接光降解,且符合一级反应动力学方程,72 h后降解率几乎达到90%。在避光进行暗反应时,Fla浓度基本不发生变化。添加丙酮、泥沙及低浓度H2O2均可抑制Fla的降解,反应仍符合一级反应动力学方程,而较高浓度的H2O2会促进Fla的光降解,且降解反应不再符合一级反应动力学方程。

黄河流域(山东段)工业用地错配时空格局与应对策略

以黄河流域(山东段)9个设区市所辖77个区县为研究单元,利用2011—2020年山东省供地信息库中的工业用地供应数据,以及同期工业经济统计数据,分析黄河流域(山东段)工业用地供应与工业利润总额时空变化特征,通过空间错配指数分析工业用地错配时空格局,并从科学配置、存量挖潜、提质增效和层级协同4个方面提出应对策略。研究对于实现黄河流域(山东段)土地资源高效利用与聚集区域高质量发展具有重要意义。

小浪底水库运行以来对黄河下游河道河床演变特性的影响

小浪底水库自1999年10月下闸蓄水,23年来深刻改变了进入黄河下游河道的径流泥沙过程,进而引起了下游河道的再造床。本研究以1960—2022年长序列水文泥沙、断面地形、遥感影像等多源资料为基础,从径流泥沙、冲淤演变、形态调整三个方面阐明了小浪底水库运行以来对下游河道河床演变特性的影响。结果表明:(1)水库拦沙效果显著,下泄水量在年内分配更加均匀、沙量则向汛期更加集中;大流量和高含沙事件的严重程度和发生频率均有所降低;悬沙调整不明显,床沙粗化显著。(2)扭转了黄河下游河道持续淤积的趋势,冲淤调整主要发生在花园口至高村的游荡性河段;冲刷效率持续下降,主槽过流能力得到显著恢复。(3)游荡性河段横断面形态向窄深发展,二级悬河发育得到有效缓解,整体河势处于相对稳定状态。研究成果丰富了多沙河流修建水库对下游河道影响的科学认识,也可为小浪底水库优化调度提供科技支撑。

基于灰色关联模型的沿黄区域山东段生态安全综合评价及时空演化

以沿黄区域山东段为例,建立PSR模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,借助熵权法和灰色关联度模型对其2000—2018年展开生态安全综合评价,并进行时空演变分析。结果显示,整体上沿黄区域山东段生态安全水平呈现出波动中上升的趋势,由“不安全”向“比较安全”转变,子系统中生态响应和生态状态增加的幅度高于生态环境压力增大的幅度,生态环境有所好转;市级尺度下,山东段17地市生态安全水平有所提高,呈现出“下降-上升-下降”的倒“N”字形演变,生态安全类型以“一般安全”为主,高等级类型较少,城市生态安全问题比较严峻;城市生态安全内部空间差异明显,生态安全空间格局向东、向北转移,呈现出“东高西低”“北高南低”的高低错落分布,高等级生态安全区域从东部沿海向鲁北扩散,“临界安全”区域缩小至鲁中南和鲁西北。最后从生态环境治理与保护、优化调控三大空间、经济结构转型升级等方面提出优化路径,改善生态环境质量。

关于黄河与河套古湖河湖关系演变的假说性分析——兼论对黄河内蒙古段生态治理的启示

黄河曾经在流经河套盆地过程中形成吉兰泰、乌兰布和、巴彦淖尔、呼包4个古湖,且在高湖面时期连成统一的“河套古大湖”,其后4湖分离并分别演绎了自己的河湖关系。在研习前人相关成果基础上,通过建立整体假说性解释框架,试图按照历史顺序与逻辑顺序统一的要求对该河段河湖关系的演变过程进行重建,并为与之相关的生态系统的治理提供借鉴。研究认为:主河道构建是黄河主动实施填湖、建堤、造槽并“甩湖”的过程与结果;冲积扇是黄河填湖的主要模式,而冲积扇顶附近凸起则是湖口淤塞、移动并最终筑成黄河自然堤的主要原因;巴彦木仁与磴口两地控制点对形成鄂尔多斯一侧黄河主河道起到了关键性作用;黄河西派在高湖面期间从巴彦木仁湖口注入吉兰泰-乌兰布和古湖,与从北面入湖的黄河水共同促成贺日木西尼古砂嘴及其延伸砂脊生长,并在低湖面期将这两个湖分离。基于对所述黄河历史过往的认识,须尽可能立足高效集成利用有限水资源这一观念,将减灾与适度重造沿河湖泊和绿洲结合,营建可持续的内蒙古段黄河生态体系。

Comparison of channel geometry changes in Inner Mongolian reach of the Yellow River before and after joint operation of large upstream reservoirs

The impact of reservoirs on downstream river channel change has been a scientific issue in fluvial geomorphology during the last few decades. However, it is still a difficult issue as to how to express quantitatively the channel adjustment in the Inner Mongolian reach of the Yellow River induced by the joint operation of upstream reservoirs. Based on the shape parameters of channel cross-sections at four gauging stations in this river reach over a flooding season in two periods, 1978–1982 and 2008–2012, the present work investigated the channel changes in terms of shape parameter change rate under the same controlling water level in each flooding season at the channel cross-sections. Results showed that most of the change rates of the parameters evidently increased over a flooding season in both periods. However, the change rate of each parameter at the cross-sections decreased evidently in the latter period, compared with the former period. At the same time, the distribution pattern of the change rate of the shape parameters along the cross-sections thus changed from a convex curve in the former period to an S-shaped curve in the latter period. The obvious decrease of the change rates is related to the joint operation of the Liujiaxia and Longyangxia reservoirs. The reservoirs stored a large volume of water and decreased the peak discharge and maximum velocity in the flooding season; as a result, the erosion ability of the flood decreased accordingly. With the joint operation of the large reservoirs, the Inner Mongolian channel shrunk markedly. Therefore, the channel will present the possibility of an extreme flood in the future. Consequently, it is reasonable to adjust the function of the reservoirs in future. The total water and sediment discharges and the peak discharge in flooding seasons should be effectively controlled. Continuous shrinkage of the channel can thus be avoided and it can be ready for a potential extreme flood.

黄河沿线郑州段遗产廊道空间格局构建路径研究

为实现黄河沿线区域系统保护与高质量发展,基于国内外基础研究和实践经验,构建黄河沿线郑州段遗产廊道空间格局框架并提出实现路径。针对空间边界相对明确的遗产廊道,其构建路径包括4个阶段:以全流域视角进行区域总体价值认知;在宏观尺度上利用最小累积阻力模型和空间信息技术进行生态敏感性评价,构建区域生态安全网络格局;在中观尺度上运用GIS核密度分析、层次分析法开展自然生态、历史人文景源综合评价并识别优先发展空间单元;综合考量生态安全网络格局和组团集群式分布的优势景源空间,构建“先底后图”的保护-发展空间格局,从生态空间、文化遗产空间、人居景观空间角度提出针对性策略,促进规划落地实施。借此丰富遗产廊道的规划理论与技术,以期为我国黄河流域同类型地区规划提供参考。

变化环境下黄河流域内蒙古段植被与水文要素的时空协同演变

为了探明我国干旱和半干旱区植被和水的时空演变规律,通过集成多源卫星遥感观测数据、再分析数据集与模型模拟数据,得到了黄河流域内蒙古段的降水、蒸散发、径流、表层土壤含水率、陆地总水储量变化信息,解析了2003—2018年不同土地利用类型区植被与水资源的时空演变特征,探讨了植被与各水文要素之间的相互作用规律。结果表明:黄河流域内蒙古段东部森林植被覆盖度的提升促使蒸散发增加,年均蒸散发量和径流量之和较降水量高16.5 mm,导致土壤水和地下水储量下降;农田年平均净灌溉耗水量为101.3~108.9 mm,并因农田植被覆盖度逐年增大而增加;虽然草地区域年均蒸散发和径流量之和低于降水量,但草地植被覆盖度的持续增大导致水分盈余量显著降低,草地的耗水正接近其生态水文阈值;陆地总水储量等效水高以(7.5±1.9)mm/a的速率下降,区域地下水呈现亏缺趋势;降水的年际波动对植被覆盖度和蒸散发的影响逐渐减弱,对森林表层土壤含水率变化的影响也逐渐减弱。

黄河内蒙段开河期细菌群落结构特征研究

为探索黄河内蒙段开河初期水-土介质中细菌群落组成情况及生态网络结构,于2021年4月中旬进行取样,共获得黄河水样6个和土样4个.利用16S rRNA基因高通量测序方法对水、土样品进行测定,并从菌门及菌属水平对二者的细菌群落组成进行了分析.结果显示:河漫滩土样细菌群落结构的分布较水样更为分散,且土样中细菌群落丰富度、均匀度及多样性均高于水体,二者多样性存在显著的组间差异;在菌门水平上,变形菌门、放线菌门和酸杆菌门等是构成水-土样品的优势细菌门类,其中变形菌门在河水中相对丰度均值约为36.57%,在土样中则下降到25.39%,而酸杆菌门主要存在土样中,相对丰度约为14.17%;在菌属水平上, hgcI_clade(6.19%~12.75%)、CL500-29_marine_group(2.97%~5.05%)和Acinetobacter(0.74%~12.24%)是水体中的优势菌属,而norank_f__norank_o__norank_c__KD4-96(1.95%~4.91%)、 norank_f__norank_o__Vicinamibacterales(2.35%~4.67%)和norank_f__Gemmatimonadaceae (2.20%~4.73%)是土样中的优势菌属;不同菌属对水-土细菌群落结构的响应并不一致,其中分别归属于酸杆菌门和芽单胞菌门的norank_f__norank_o__Vicinamibacterales及norank_f__Gemmatimonadaceae等是联系水-土细菌群落的主要菌属,而归属于放线菌门的hgcI_clade和CL500-29_marine_group等是造成水、土优势菌门存在差异的主要菌属;虽然土样较水样拥有更大的生态网络结构,且Delftia、Candidatus_Methylopumilus、Arthrobacter和Rb41等是维持黄河内蒙段水、土介质生态网络结构的关键菌属,但相较于土样网络结构,水体网络结构中不同模块关键菌门及菌属间的生态功能较为一致.

持续冲刷期内黄河下游河床演变特点分析

基于2006年10月至2018年11月黄河下游12个典型断面观测数据,通过分析断面主槽平滩形态特征参数变化率及深泓线和主槽中心线的摆动强度,探讨了持续冲刷期内下游河床的调整变化过程及特点。结果表明:黄河下游断面形态调整表现出既有横向展宽又有冲深下切或淤高态势;河床平面摆动促进了断面主槽形态调整,河相系数变化率与深泓线和主槽中心线摆动强度均成正相关关系;来水来沙条件是主槽形态改变的主要驱动力,且可引起局部河段深泓线摆动强度增大。通过调整小浪底水库的运行模式及布设控导工程可进一步塑造并维持稳定的黄河下游中水河槽。

黄河流域(山东段)生态环境与农业耦合协调和高质量发展提升策略

运用熵权-TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型评价黄河流域(山东段)23个区县2010年、2015年和2020年的生态环境与农业高质量发展耦合协调水平,并根据评价结果,从规划体系完善、区县级国土空间规划编制和机制体制建设3个方面提出黄河流域(山东段)生态环境与农业高质量发展规划提升策略。

生态系统服务权衡及其影响因素——以黄河流域山西段为例

黄河流域山西段是重要的生态屏障区,明晰生态系统服务权衡/协同强度的时空格局,对生态保护及经济协调发展具有重要意义。本文基于生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs,InVEST)量化生态系统服务供给量和需求量,通过均方根偏差(Root Mean Square Deviation,RMSD)量化生态系统服务权衡强度,利用结构方程模型(Structural Equation Model,SEM)分析权衡强度的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年产水(Water Yield,WY)和土壤保持服务(Soil Conservation,SC)、产水和固碳服务(Carbon Sequestration,CS)供给权衡强度呈上升趋势,产水和土壤保持服务、产水和固碳服务需求协同强度呈下降趋势。(2)除产水服务在2020年供给—需求权衡强度大于0,2000—2020年产水、土壤保持和固碳服务的供给—需求权衡强度均小于0。(3)生态系统服务权衡/协同强度主要受自然因素影响,蒸散发对产水和土壤保持服务、产水和固碳服务供给权衡具有促进作用,对产水服务供给—需求权衡具有抑制作用;草地面积占比对产水和固碳服务供给权衡及产水和土壤保持服务需求协同具有抑制作用,对固碳服务供给—需求权衡具有促进作用;降水对产水和固碳服务需求协同及土壤保持服务供给—需求权衡具有抑制作用,对产水服务供给—需求权衡具有促进作用。(4)社会经济因素对生态系统服务权衡/协同强度具有次要作用,人口密度对产水和土壤保持服务需求协同具有促进作用,而对产水服务供给—需求权衡及固碳服务供给—需求权衡具有抑制作用。因此,在制定流域综合管理决策时应考虑生态系统服务权衡/协同强度的空间特征和驱动因素的差异性。

1970~2020年黄河流域菏泽段LUCC时空演化及驱动力分析

利用ArcGIS提取LUCC类型,采用LUCC动态度、LUCC转移矩阵和驱动因素主成分分析法,对研究区域1970~2020年LUCC的时空变化特征及驱动因素进行分析研究.结果表明:单一LUCC自大到小为耕地、建设用地、水域、林地、草地和未利用土地,建设用地动态度为正值,呈增加趋势,各类用地间互相转化活跃;经济加速发展、城镇化进程的加快,产业结构调整和居民生活水平提高,是驱使LUCC结构发生变化的主要因素.