Evolution and Determinants of Population Agglomeration in Less Developed Metropolitan Areas:A Case Study of the Taiyuan Metropolitan Area,China

It is of importance to enhance the urban areas'capacity for population aggregation in underdeveloped regions,aiming to rectify the imbalanced and insufficient pattern of economic development in China.Taking the Taiyuan Metropolitan Area(TMA)in central China as a case study,this paper examines the evolutionary process and characteristics of population agglomeration from 2000 to 2020,and identifies factors associated with agglomeration and their spatial effects.The findings indicated that:1)against the background of sustained population shrinkage in the provincial area,the TMA showed a demographic trend of steady increase,albeit with a decelerated growth rate.In the metropolitan area,urban population size continued to grow rapidly,whereas the rural areas endured sustained losses.Disparities in city size continued to widen,and the polarization of concentrated population in the core cities kept increasing.2)Agglomerations in both secondary and service industries had significant positive effects on local population agglomeration,with the former effect being stronger.Regional economic development,government fiscal expenditure,and financial advancement all contributed to facilitating local population clustering.From a spatial spillover perspective,service agglomeration and financial development promoted population agglomeration in surrounding areas.Conversely,fiscal expenditure inhibited such agglomeration.As for industrial agglomeration and regional economic development,their spatial spillover effects were non-significant.The results obtained reveal several policy implications aimed at enhancing the population agglomeration capacity of the metropolitan area in underdeveloped regions during the new era.

Coordination Mechanism and Empirical Research on Marine Science Technology Innovation and Marine Eco-civilization:A Case Study of Coastal Areas of China

Marine science technology innovation provides power and guarantees for marine eco-civilization construction,which provides direction and material support for marine science technology innovation.Therefore,the coordinated development of the two is of great significance to the marine economy sustainable development in China’s coastal areas.On the basis of clarifying the connotations of marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization in China’s coastal areas from 2006 to 2019,the mechanism for their coordinated development was analysed.A comprehensive indicator system based on the connotation of the two was constructed,and the coordinated development relationship was empirically tested using the coupled coordination model and the panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model.The results show that:1)the level of China’s coastal marine science technology innovation continues to improve,gradually forming the core of the development of marine science technology innovation in the north,east and south of Shandong,Shanghai and Guangdong;the level of marine eco-civilization development fluctuating upward trend,showing obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.2)The degree of coordination of marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization is growing over time.There is no causal relationship between marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization in the northern marine economic circle,but there is a two-way causal relationship between the two in the eastern and southern marine economic circles.3)Marine eco-civilization shows a significant positive and continuous impact on marine science technology innovation,and marine science technology innovation shows a long-term,continuous,fluctuating,and lagging impact on marine eco-civilization.The overall role of marine eco-civilization on marine science technology innovation is dominant,and there are significant differences in the impact effects of the two major marine economic circles.

Influence of lithospheric thickness distribution on oil and gas basins,China seas and adjacent areas

The distribution of oil and gas resources is intricately connected to the underlying structure of the lithosphere.Therefore,investigating the characteristics of lithospheric thickness and its correlation with oil and gas basins is highly important.This research utilizes recently enhanced geological–geophysical data,including topographic,geoid,rock layer thickness,variable rock layer density,and interface depth data.Employing the principles of lithospheric isostasy and heat conduction,we compute the laterally varying lithospheric thickness in the China seas and adjacent areas.From these results,two pivotal parameters for different types of oil and gas basins were statistically analyzed:the minimum lithospheric thickness and the relative fluctuation in lithospheric thickness.A semiquantitative analysis was used to explore the connection between these parameters and the hydrocarbon abundance within the oil and gas basins.This study unveils distinct variations in lithospheric thickness among basins,with oil and gas rich basins exhibiting a thicker lithosphere in the superimposed basins of central China and a thinner lithosphere in the rift basins of eastern China.Notably,the relative fluctuations in lithospheric thickness in basins demonstrate significant disparities:basins rich in oil and gas often exhibit greater thickness fluctuations.Additionally,in the offshore basins of China,a conspicuous negative linear correlation is observed between the minimum lithospheric thickness and the relative fluctuation in lithospheric thickness.This study posits that deep-seated thermal upwelling results in lithospheric undulations and extensional thinning in oil and gas basins.Concurrently,sustained deep-seated heat influences sedimentary materials in basins,creating favorable conditions for oil and gas generation.The insights derived from this study contribute to a quantitative understanding of the intricate relationships between deep lithospheric structures and oil and gas basins.These findings provide valuable guidance for future oil and gas exploration in the studied areas.

New Rural Community Construction or Retention Development:A Comparative Analysis of Rural Settlement Transition Mechanism in Plain Agriculture Area of China Based on Actor Network Theory

It is an important way to realize rural revitalization and sustainable development to guide rural settlement transition(RST)in an appropriate way.This paper uses actor network theory(ANT)to construct a theoretical framework for the study of RST.Taking two typical villages with different transition paths in rural areas of North China Plain as examples,this paper reveals the mechanism of RST and makes a comparative analysis.The results show that:1)after identifying problems and obligatory passage point,key actors recruit heterogeneous actors into the actor network by entrusting them with common interests,and realize RST under the system operation.2)Rural settlements under different transition paths have similarities in the problems to be solved,collective actions and policy factors,but there are differences in the transition process,mechanism and effect.The actor network and mechanism of RST through the path of new rural community construction are more complex and the transition effect is more thorough.In contrast,the degree of RST of retention development path is limited if there is no resource and location advantage.3)Based on the applicable conditions of different paths,this paper designs a logical framework of‘Situation-Structure-Behavior-Result’to scientifically guide the identification of RST paths under the background of rural revitalization.

Integration of Multiple Spectral Data via a Logistic Regression Algorithm for Detection of Crop Residue Burned Areas:A Case Study of Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The burning of crop residues in fields is a significant global biomass burning activity which is a key element of the terrestrial carbon cycle,and an important source of atmospheric trace gasses and aerosols.Accurate estimation of cropland burned area is both crucial and challenging,especially for the small and fragmented burned scars in China.Here we developed an automated burned area mapping algorithm that was implemented using Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument(MSI)data and its effectiveness was tested taking Songnen Plain,Northeast China as a case using satellite image of 2020.We employed a logistic regression method for integrating multiple spectral data into a synthetic indicator,and compared the results with manually interpreted burned area reference maps and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MCD64A1 burned area product.The overall accuracy of the single variable logistic regression was 77.38%to 86.90%and 73.47%to 97.14%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively.In comparison,the accuracy of the burned area map was improved to 87.14%and 98.33%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively by multiple variable logistic regression of Sentind-2 images.The balance of omission error and commission error was also improved.The integration of multiple spectral data combined with a logistic regression method proves to be effective for burned area detection,offering a highly automated process with an automatic threshold determination mechanism.This method exhibits excellent extensibility and flexibility taking the image tile as the operating unit.It is suitable for burned area detection at a regional scale and can also be implemented with other satellite data.

Evolution and Governance of the Structure of Marine Economic Networks in China’s Coastal Areas: Based on Sea-related A-share Listed Companies

Data on discrete,isolated attributes of the marine economy are often used in traditional marine economic research.However,as the focus of urban research shifts from internal static attributes to external dynamic linkages,the importance of marine economic net-work research is beginning to emerge.The construction of the marine economic network in China’s coastal areas is necessary to change the flow of land and sea resources and optimize regional marine economic development.Employing data from headquarters and branches of sea-related A-share listed enterprises to construct the marine economic network in China,we use social network analysis(SNA)to discuss the characteristics of its evolution as of 2010,2015,and 2020 and its governance.The following results were obtained.1)In terms of topological characteristics,the scale of the marine economic network in China’s coastal areas has accelerated and expan-ded,and the connections have become increasingly close;thus,this development has complex network characteristics.2)In terms of spatial structure,the intensity of the connection fluctuates and does not form stable development support;the group structure gradually becomes clear,but the overall pattern is fragmented;there are spatial differences in marine economic agglomeration radiation;the radi-ation effect of the eastern marine economic circle is obvious;and the polarization effect of northern and southern marine economic circles is significant.On this basis,we construct a framework for the governance of a marine economic network with the market,the government,and industry as the three governing bodies.By clarifying the driving factors and building objectives of marine economic network construction,this study aims to foster the high-quality development of China’s marine economy.

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Winter Urban Heat Island:A Case Study of Rapid Urbanization Area of Fuzhou City,China

Under the influence of anthropogenic and climate change,the problems caused by urban heat island(UHI)has become increasingly prominent.In order to promote urban sustainable development and improve the quality of human settlements,it is significant for exploring the evolution characteristics of urban thermal environment and analyzing its driving forces.Taking the Landsat series images as the basic data sources,the winter land surface temperature(LST)of the rapid urbanization area of Fuzhou City in China was quantitatively retrieved from 2001 to 2021.Combing comprehensively the standard deviation ellipse model,profile analysis and GeoDetector model,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the winter urban thermal environment were systematically analyzed.The results showed that the winter LST presented an increasing trend in the study area during 2001–2021,and the winter LST of the central urban regions was significantly higher than the suburbs.There was a strong UHI effect from 2001 to 2021with an expansion trend from the central urban regions to the suburbs and coastal areas in space scale.The LST of green lands and wetlands are significantly lower than croplands,artificial surface and unvegetated lands.Vegetation and water bodies had a significant mitigation effect on UHI,especially in the micro-scale.The winter UHI had been jointly driven by the underlying surface and socio-economic factors in a nonlinear or two-factor interactive enhancement mode,and socio-economic factors had played a leading role.This research could provide data support and decision-making references for rationally planning urban layout and promoting sustainable urban development.

Influence of the Moho surface distribution on the oil and gas basins in China seas and adjacent areas

Owing to the strategic significance of national oil and gas resources,their exploration and production must be prioritized in China.Oil and gas resources are closely related to deep crustal structures,and Moho characteristics influence oil and gas distribution.Therefore,it is important to study the relationship between the variation of the Moho surface depth undulation and hydrocarbon basins for the future prediction of their locations.The Moho depth in the study area can be inverted using the Moho depth control information,the Moho gravity anomaly,and the variable density distribution calculated by the infinite plate.Based on these results,the influences of Moho characteristics on petroleum basins were studied.We found that the Moho surface depth undulation deviation and crustal thickness undulation deviation in the hydrocarbon-rich basins are large,and the horizontal gradient deviation of the Moho surface shows a positive linear relationship with oil and gas resources in the basin.The oil-bearing mechanism of the Moho basin is further discussed herein.The Moho uplift area and the slope zone correspond to the distribution of oil and gas fields.The tensile stress produced by the Moho uplift can form tensile fractures or cause tensile fractures on the surface,further developing into a fault or depression basin that receives deposits.The organic matter can become oil and natural gas under suitable chemical and structural conditions.Under the action of groundwater or other dynamic forces,oil and natural gas are gradually transported to the uplift or the buried hill in the depression zone,and oil and gas fields are formed under the condition of good caprock.The research results can provide new insights into the relationship between deep structures and oil and gas basins as well as assist in the strategic planning of oil and gas exploration activities.

Can Multiple Livelihood Interventions Improve Livelihood Resilience of Out-of-poverty Farmers in Mountain Areas?A Case Study of Longnan Mountain Area,China

Clarifying the impact of livelihood interventions on the livelihood resilience of farmers in undeveloped mountain areas can not only optimize interventions,but also provide experiential support for global poverty alleviation.To analyze the impact of multiple livelihood interventions on livelihood resilience,we constructed an analytical framework and analyzed the enjoyment of livelihood interventions and the heterogeneity of livelihood resilience among out-of-poverty farmers in the Longnan mountain areas,China.Then,we studied the impact of intervention intensity on livelihood resilience through the multiple linear regression model.The results revealed that:1)the livelihood interventions enjoyed by out-of-poverty farmer in mountain areas were multiple.The proportion of farmers enjoyed diversified livelihood interventions was in descending order of high mountain areas,semi-mountain area and Chuanba valley areas.2)The overall livelihood resilience of farmers in Longnan mountain areas was generally low,with an average of 0.299.There were significant differences in the livelihood resilience of farmers across different geographic areas in the study area and types of interventions.3)The effects of industry interventions,employment interventions and education interventions were significant.The endogenous power of farmers not only had a significant positive effect on livelihood resilience,but also positively moderated the impact of the intensity of interventions on livelihood resilience.In addition,the household dependency ratio and the average altitude of the village area had a significant negative impact on their livelihood resilience.

Data reliability of the emerging citizen science in the Greater Bay Area of China

The potential of citizen science projects in research has been increasingly acknowledged,but the substantial engagement of these projects is restricted by the quality of citizen science data.Based on the largest emerging citizen science project in the country-Birdreport Online Database(BOD),we examined the biases of birdwatching data from the Greater Bay Area of China.The results show that the sampling effort is disparate among land cover types due to contributors’ preference towards urban and suburban areas,indicating the environment suitable for species existence could be underrepresented in the BOD data.We tested the contributors’ skill of species identification via a questionnaire targeting the citizen birders in the Greater Bay Area.The questionnaire show that most citizen birdwatchers could correctly identify the common species widely distributed in Southern China and the less common species with conspicuous morphological characteristics,while failed to identify the species from Alaudidae;Caprimulgidae,Emberizidae,Phylloscopidae,Scolopacidae and Scotocercidae.With a study example,we demonstrate that spatially clustered bird watching visits can cause underestimation of species richness in insufficiently sampled areas;and the result of species richness mapping is sensitive to the contributors’ skill of identifying bird species.Our results address how avian research can be influenced by the reliability of citizen science data in a region of generally high accessibility,and highlight the necessity of pre-analysis scrutiny on data reliability regarding to research aims at all spatial and temporal scales.To improve the data quality,we suggest to equip the data collection frame of BOD with a flexible filter for bird abundance,and questionnaires that collect information related to contributors’ bird identification skill.Statistic modelling approaches are encouraged to apply for correcting the bias of sampling effort.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban-rural Construction Land in Rural Industrialized Areas in China:Case Studies in Changyuan City and Xinxiang County of Henan Province

Since China’s reform and opening up in 1978,the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in China had led to dramatic changes in the pattern of urban-rural land use.In this paper,we focused on the rural industrialized areas in central China(Xinxiang County and Changyuan City of Henan Province).We used the average nearest neighbor index,spatial statistical analysis,and a structural equation model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban-rural construction land based on multisource spatial data and survey data.The results showed that:1)from 1975 to 2019,the spatial distribution of urban-rural construction land in rural industrialized areas had evolved from homogeneous distribution to local agglomeration.In terms of comparative analysis of cases,the spatial distribution of urban-rural construction land in Changyuan City had shown a trend from diffusion to agglomeration,and Xinxiang County had overall shown a spatial change from homogenization to agglomeration and then to regional integration development.2)The hot spots with increased urban-rural construction land significantly expanded,and they had a high degree of spatial overlap with industrial development.Among them,Xinxiang County was concentrated in central and marginal areas,and Changyuan was mainly concentrated in central urban areas.3)From the evolution of spatial proximity of urban-rural construction land,rural industrialized areas generally decline,showing the characteristics of internal differentiation in the rate of change.4)Industrial development,social economy,the policy environment,and urban development played a positive role in promoting the expansion of urban-rural construction land in rural industrialized areas.To promote the optimal use of regional land and the integrated development of urban-rural areas,we should combine the advantages of regional endowment,formulate development strategies according to local conditions,and adjust the way that land is used in a timely manner.

Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

Study on the Introduction and Screening of Cut Roses in the Tropical Coastal Area of China

[Objective] This study aimed to select suitable cultivars of cut roses with prominent comprehensive performance which is suitable for the commercial promotion in the tropical region of South Hainan Province,including Sanya and the low-altitude area.[Method] Introduction experiment and production test were designed to observe the agronomic and economic traits of cultivars in a rose resources nursery established in Sanya.[Result] Through observation in the resources garden,18 varieties were chosen to conduct the introduction experiment,of which 8 varieties were selected to accomplish the production test.The results of the production test showed that ＇Vendela＇,＇Golden Emblem＇,＇Samantha＇ and ＇Tineke＇ showed the best adaptability;the cut flower quality of ＇Carola＇,＇Black Magic＇ and ＇Golden Emblem＇ belonged to the first grade;the yield of ＇Movie Star＇,＇Golden Emblem＇ and ＇Black Magic＇ was more than one million per hm2;except ＇Golden Emblem＇,the vase life of the other seven cultivars was more than 10 days;＇Carola＇,＇My Choice＇ and ＇Perfume White＇ had better disease-and insect-resistance;＇Carola＇,＇Vendela＇,＇Rouge Meilland＇,＇Tineke＇,＇Golden Emblem＇,＇Samantha＇,＇Perfume White＇,＇Saiun＇,＇Asagumo＇ and ＇Double Delight＇ were more resistant to blackspot,while ＇Black Magic＇,＇Versilla＇,＇Alec＇s Red＇ and ＇Movie Star＇ were less resistant to blackspot.[Conclusion] Cultivars of cut roses were able to grow and develop normally in the tropical coastal area of Hainan Province,including South Hainan and Sanya,where it was appropriate for the production of cut roses.However,it is necessary to pay attention to the prevention and control of thrips and blackspot.＇Black Magic＇,＇Carola＇,＇Vendela＇,＇Rouge Meilland＇,＇Golden Emblem＇,＇Tineke＇,＇Movie Star＇ and ＇Samantha＇ showed best comprehensive performance,which were thus worthy of large-scale popularization in Hainan Province.

Analysis on Spatio-temporal Distribution of Lightning in Dalian Area of China between 2007 and 2008

The cloud-to-ground lightning data between 2007 and 2008 were collected by lightning detection and location system,which was composed of four lightning detectors in four different sites of Dalian area.The spatio-temporal distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning in surrounding areas of Dalian was analyzed from several aspects of polarity distribution,diurnal variation,lightning intensity and lightning density.The results showed that the number of negative lightning accounted for 93.9% of the total number of lightning,and its average lightning intensity was 27.99 kA.The number of positive lightning accounted for 6.1% of the total number of lightning,and its average lightning intensity was 35.56 kA.The diurnal variation of lightning frequency showed an obvious structure of two peaks (17:00-18:00 and 04:00-05:00) and two valleys (09:00-10:00 and 00:00-01:00).The number of lightning between May and September was 91.5% of the annual number,and the lightning occurred the most frequently between June and August.Most of positive and negative lightning was at the intensity of 15-35 kA,80.0% lower than 40 kA,and 99.3% lower than 100 kA.The lightning density had obvious regional differences in distribution,high in the Liaodong Bay and the Dalian Bay and low in inland areas.Therefore,coastal areas should attract more attention in lightning disaster defense in the surrounding areas of Dalian.

Response of environmental sensitive grain size group in Core FJ04 from mud area in the north of East China Sea to East Asian winter monsoon evolvement

AMS14C dating and grain-size analysis for Core FJ04, located at mud area in the North of East China Sea provide us a high-resolution grain-size distribution curve varying with depth and time. This paper got environmental sensitive grain-size group by using standard deviation method, and proved that the selected sensitive grain-size group is an important proxy which can be used to reconstruct intensity of East Asian Winter Monsoon （EAWM）. Then we got reconstruction of EAWM evolvement since 3 ka B.P., which revealed two main phases： （1） 3 - 1.15ka B.P., relative weak EAWM with middle frequency fluctuation; （2） 1.15 - 0ka B.P., really strong EAWM with high frequency fluctuation. And 1.15 ka B.P. is a distinct turning point. During the whole period, 11 intense events of EAWM were recorded and correlated well with other climate records, but the response extent was different, which showed consistency of climate change and particularity of region response.

Study on Relative Soil and Water Conservation Benefits of Ridge Tillage in Different Terrain Conditions in the Black Soil Area of Northeast China

Ridge tillage, which is a very common and important tillage measure in the black soil area of northeast China, has some soil and water conservation bene- fits, but has little attention. It is very important to explore the spatial distribution of the ridge direction of the arable land and its soil and water conservation benefits in different terrain conditions in the black soil area. So Binxian County of Heilongjiang Province was selected as the study area, and 168 field investigation units were ex- tracted by stratified sampling method and investigated. According to equations of slope gradient factor and slope gradient in ridge direction, and based on the soft- ware of Arcmap, SPSS and Excel, the investigation data of soil and water loss in Binxian County were analyzed and counted, The results show that in plain, hilly and mountainous areas, the average ground slope gradients are 1.92°, 6.20° and 8.27° respectively, and the average slope gradients along ridge direction are 1.33°, 4.52°and 6.45° respectively, which account for about 70%, 73% and 78% of the average ground slope gradients in the same terrain condition; the relative quantities of soil erosion in the present ridge tillage condition account for about 55%, 69% and 67% respectively of that in down-slope ridge tillage conditions, so the present ridge tillage has obviously relative soil and water conservation benefits. Based on these results, the reasons of the present ridge tillage status were analyzed, and some reform measures were proposed. The results could not only help to comprehend the spatial distribution and soil and water conservation benefits of ridge tillage in the black soil area of Northeast China, but also provide scientific references for the layout of local soil and water conservation measures.

Human Carrying Capacity of Rangeland Resources in China′s Mountain Areas

Based on analysis of the development potential of rangeland resources in China＇s mountain areas, the paper makes analysis and forecast in human carrying capacity of rangeland resources. It provides some reference for drawing up the development strategy in mountain areas.

Modeling the relationship of land use change and some geophysical indicators for the interlock area of farming and pasturing in China

This paper discusses land-use changes in the interlock area of farming and pasturing (IAFP) in northern China. It presents detailed analyses of land-use features in the IAFP, which are controlled by the macro geomorphic units and geophysical conditions-constraints or advantages. Additionally, it selects some indicators, according to the availability in acquiring and processing their quantitative data, to analyze the canonical correlations between the typical conversion of grassland and geophysical conditions. The preliminary study indicates that the physical conditions are of great advantages to the development of grassland. There exists significant correlation between land use change and some geophysical conditions.

Do farmers care about climate change? Evidence from five major grain producing areas of China

Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in China.The results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation changes.Specifically,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation change.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.

Undrained shear strength evaluation for hydrate-bearing sediment overlying strata in the Shenhu area, northern South China Sea

The undrained shear strength of shallow strata is a critical parameter for safety design in deep-water operations.In situ piezocone penetration tests(CPTU) and laboratory experiments are performed at Site W18-19 in the Shenhu area, northern South China Sea, where China's first marine hydrate exploitation operation is due to be located. The validation of the undrained shear strength prediction model based on CPTU parameters. Different laboratory tests, including pocket penetrometer, torvane, miniature vane and unconsolidated undrained triaxial tests, are employed to solve empirical cone coefficients by statistical and mathematical methods. Finally, an optimized model is proposed to describe the longitudinal distribution of undrained shear strength in calcareous clay strata in the Shenhu area. Research results reveal that average empirical cone coefficients based on total cone resistance, effective resistance, and excess-pore pressure are 13.8, 4.2 and 14.4, respectively. The undrained shear strength prediction model shows a good fit with the laboratory results only within specific intervals based on their compaction degree and gas-bearing conditions. The optimized prediction model in piecewise function format can be used to describe the longitudinal distribution of the undrained shear strength for calcareous clay within all depth intervals from the mud-line to the upper boundary of hydrate-bearing sediments(HBS). The optimized prediction result indicates that the effective cone resistance model is suitable for very soft to firm calcareous clays,the excess-pore pressure model can depict the undrained shear strength for firm to very stiff but gas-free clays,while the total cone resistance model is advantageous for evaluating the undrained shear strength for very stiff and gassy clays. The optimized model in piecewise function format can considerably improve the adaptability of empirical models for calcareous clay in the Shenhu area. These results are significant for safety evaluations of proposed hydrate exploitation projects.