Recent occurrences of marine heatwaves(MHWs)in coastal China seas have caused serious impacts on marine ecosystem services and socio-economics.Nevertheless,the underlying physical process,including local drivers and r...Recent occurrences of marine heatwaves(MHWs)in coastal China seas have caused serious impacts on marine ecosystem services and socio-economics.Nevertheless,the underlying physical process,including local drivers and remote associations,remains poorly understood,thereby hindering accurate predictability.In this study,we reported an extreme MHW event in the East China Seas(ECSs,including the Bohai,Yellow,and East China Sea),lasting for 75 d with a maximum intensity of 1.96℃relative to 1982-2011 during the summer 2022.This ECSs MHW event was triggered by a combination of anomalous atmospheric and oceanic conditions,including enhanced insolation,weakened surface wind speed,suppressed latent heat loss from ocean,a shallower mixed layer,and upper ocean current anomaly.Mixed-layer temperature budget diagnosis suggested that changes in the ECSs temperature were dominated by the surface net heat flux,largely due to strong shortwave radiation flux,during the development and decay of the MHW event.Oceanic advection also created favorable conditions for the maintenance of the MHW.These physical drivers were further regulated by the westward expanded and intensified western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),potentially linked to the negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD).Despite the three years(2020-2022)consecutive La Niña events,the ECSs summer MHWs appeared to be more closely linked to negative IOD events,with a lagging period of 1-3 mon.The seasonal precursor signals of the negative IOD have the potential to affect local physical drivers of ECSs MHWs through regulating the strength and position of WPSH,thus serving as a promising predictor for the ECSs MHWs.The future likelihood and intensity of the ECSs MHWs are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades,largely due to broad-scale warming attributed to anthropogenic climate change.Consequently,there is an urgent need to develop MHW forecasting and early warning systems,and robust approaches to address climate change.展开更多
In the late 1920’s,a mega-drought in China resulted in widespread crop failure and famine.Sufficient evidence suggests that this drought belonged to a dry period ranging from approximately 1922 to 1932.To understand ...In the late 1920’s,a mega-drought in China resulted in widespread crop failure and famine.Sufficient evidence suggests that this drought belonged to a dry period ranging from approximately 1922 to 1932.To understand the characteristics and the cause of this persistent drought period,we combined various data,including observations,tree ring proxy data,reanalysis data,simulation results of the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and numerical downscaling simulations.The results show that during 1922-1932,most regions in eastern China suffered from a persistent drought that lasted for six years,and the maximum negative precipitation anomaly reached−1.5 times the standard deviation.Given its spatial coverage,duration,and strength,the 1920s drought was unique for the 20th century.The 1920s drought was primarily caused by internal variability.Strong easterlies in lower latitudes,strong monsoon circulation,and abnormally high geopotential heights at middle and upper levels were responsible for the 1920s drought conditions in eastern China;these drought conditions could be further attributed to the joint impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin Mode.展开更多
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0604902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42005013)Deep Sea Habitats Discovery Project of China Deep Ocean Affairs Administration(DY-XZ-04)and China-Africa Maritime Cooperation Project.The datasets employed,including OISST,HadISST,ERSST,COBE-SST,ICOADS,NCEP-CFSR,and ERA5,are all available online.
文摘Recent occurrences of marine heatwaves(MHWs)in coastal China seas have caused serious impacts on marine ecosystem services and socio-economics.Nevertheless,the underlying physical process,including local drivers and remote associations,remains poorly understood,thereby hindering accurate predictability.In this study,we reported an extreme MHW event in the East China Seas(ECSs,including the Bohai,Yellow,and East China Sea),lasting for 75 d with a maximum intensity of 1.96℃relative to 1982-2011 during the summer 2022.This ECSs MHW event was triggered by a combination of anomalous atmospheric and oceanic conditions,including enhanced insolation,weakened surface wind speed,suppressed latent heat loss from ocean,a shallower mixed layer,and upper ocean current anomaly.Mixed-layer temperature budget diagnosis suggested that changes in the ECSs temperature were dominated by the surface net heat flux,largely due to strong shortwave radiation flux,during the development and decay of the MHW event.Oceanic advection also created favorable conditions for the maintenance of the MHW.These physical drivers were further regulated by the westward expanded and intensified western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),potentially linked to the negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD).Despite the three years(2020-2022)consecutive La Niña events,the ECSs summer MHWs appeared to be more closely linked to negative IOD events,with a lagging period of 1-3 mon.The seasonal precursor signals of the negative IOD have the potential to affect local physical drivers of ECSs MHWs through regulating the strength and position of WPSH,thus serving as a promising predictor for the ECSs MHWs.The future likelihood and intensity of the ECSs MHWs are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades,largely due to broad-scale warming attributed to anthropogenic climate change.Consequently,there is an urgent need to develop MHW forecasting and early warning systems,and robust approaches to address climate change.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20020201)the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600403)+2 种基金the General Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41875134)the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0602501)the Science and Technology Program of Yunnan “Impact assessments and monitorforecasting technology of meteorological disasters for Yunnan Plateau characteristic agriculture under climate change” (Grant No. 2018BC007)
文摘In the late 1920’s,a mega-drought in China resulted in widespread crop failure and famine.Sufficient evidence suggests that this drought belonged to a dry period ranging from approximately 1922 to 1932.To understand the characteristics and the cause of this persistent drought period,we combined various data,including observations,tree ring proxy data,reanalysis data,simulation results of the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and numerical downscaling simulations.The results show that during 1922-1932,most regions in eastern China suffered from a persistent drought that lasted for six years,and the maximum negative precipitation anomaly reached−1.5 times the standard deviation.Given its spatial coverage,duration,and strength,the 1920s drought was unique for the 20th century.The 1920s drought was primarily caused by internal variability.Strong easterlies in lower latitudes,strong monsoon circulation,and abnormally high geopotential heights at middle and upper levels were responsible for the 1920s drought conditions in eastern China;these drought conditions could be further attributed to the joint impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin Mode.
