Seasonal Prediction of Extreme High-Temperature Days in Southwestern China Based on the Physical Precursors

Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.

Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on the Interannual Variability of Winter Haze Days in Guangdong Province

The impact of sea surface temperature(SST)on winter haze in Guangdong province(WHDGD)was analyzed on the interannual scale.It was pointed out that the northern Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific SST play a leading role in the variation of WHDGD.Cold(warm)SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific stimulate the eastward propagation of cold(warm)Kelvin waves through the Gill forced response,causing Ekman convergence(divergence)in the western Pacific,inducing abnormal cyclonic(anticyclonic)circulation.It excites the positive(negative)Western Pacific teleconnection pattern(WP),which results in the temperature and the precipitation decrease(increase)in Guangdong and forms the meteorological variables conditions that are conducive(not conducive)to the formation of haze.ENSO has an asymmetric influence on WHDGD.In El Niño(La Niña)winters,there are strong(weak)coordinated variations between the northern Indian Ocean,the northwest Pacific,and the eastern Pacific,which stimulate the negative(positive)phase of WP teleconnection.In El Niño winters,the enhanced moisture is attributed to the joint effects of the horizontal advection from the surrounding ocean,vertical advection from the moisture convergence,and the increased atmospheric apparent moisture sink(Q2)from soil evaporation.The weakening of the atmospheric apparent heat source(Q1)in the upper layer is not conducive to the formation of inversion stratification.In contrast,in La Niña winters,the reduced moisture is attributed to the reduced upward water vapor transport and Q2 loss.Due to the Q1 increase in the upper layer,the temperature inversion forms and suppresses the diffusion of haze.

Interannual Variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health.This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem.The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations,indicating a significant upward trend.Additionally,DH events were observed to occur frequently.The number of DH days increased during 1970-1990,decreased from 1991 to 1997,and stayed stable after 1997.The key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM).Compared with the negative phase of IOBW,in the positive phase of IOBW,500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced,the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west,more solar radiation reached the surface,surface outgoing longwave radiation increased,and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South China.The atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW,and the abnormal circulation of the positive(negative)phases of ESAM was unfavorable(favorable)for the increase in the number of DH days.A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression,incorporating the key climate factors.The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65,and the root-mean-square error was 2.8.In addition,independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 day.The results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model,providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.

Load-forecasting method for IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features

To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features.Feature expansion was performed to construct a comprehensive load day covering the load and meteorological information with coarse and fine time granularity,far and near time periods.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to divide the scene of the comprehensive load day,and gray correlation analysis was used to match the scene with the coarse time granularity characteristics of the day to be forecasted.Five typical days with the highest correlation with the day to be predicted in the scene were selected to construct a“dynamic similar day”by weighting.The key features of adjacent days and dynamic similar days were used to forecast multi-loads with fine time granularity using LSTM.Comparing the static features as input and the selection method of similar days based on non-extended single features,the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method was verified.

Causes and Effects of Stillbirths on Days Open and Cow Herd Survival in Holstein Friesian Cows

The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the causes and the effects of stillbirth on the number of days open and cow herd survival in subsequent lactation of Holstein Friesian cows. A total of 1371 calvings from research dairy farm were used. Stillbirth in calves was defined as the death of a fetus before or during calving at full term (≥270 days of gestation) or within 24 hours after calving. During the period from January 2006 to December 2017 a percent of 95.04% of the calvings were with live calves, and 4.96% of the calvings were stillbirths. The major causes of stillbirth identified were: calving difficulty, parity of the cows, and sex of the calves at calving. A five point scale was used to assess calving difficulties, and numbers 1, 2 and 3 were considered unassisted calvings and number 4 and 5 as assisted. The twin calvings were not taken into account. Days open were measured as days from first calving to conception, and cow herd survival from first calving to culling or death. Trend test and multivariate data analysis were used. The findings revealed that primiparous cows were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with multiparous cows. Cows that were at calving male calves were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with cows that had female calves at calving. Also, cows with assisted calving were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with cows with unassisted calvings. Cows with stillbirths had a increase mean of days open with 32 days. Cow herd survival was better in the cows with live calves at calving compared with the cows that had stillbirth at calvings.

Effect of Temperature on Frost-Free Days and Length of Crop Growing Season across Southern Ontario

Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.

A Dear Price to Regret Over:On Mr.Stevens’Dignity and Professionalism in The Remains of the Day

The Remains of the Day is one of Kazuo Ishiguro’s renowned novels.The protagonist Stevens is an English butler whose life is deeply entwined with the concepts of dignity and honor.Set against the backdrop of post-World War II Britain and reflecting on the interwar period,the novel examines Stevens’devotion to his role and the traditional values of English aristocracy.The essay discusses how Stevens’identity is shaped by his unwavering commitment to professionalism and his admiration for British gentleman culture and highlights the identity crisis Stevens faces as he realizes the flawed nature of his employer and the outdated ideals he upheld.Through Stevens’journey of self-reassessment and eventual epiphany,the essay delves into the complexities of his internal struggle to reconstruct his identity,ultimately advocating for a more authentic understanding of dignity and honor.

Interrelationships between Length of the Day, Moon Distance, Phanerozoic Geodynamic Cycles, Tidal Dissipation and Earth’s Core: Review and Analysis

The rotation of the Earth and the related length of the day (LOD) are predominantly affected by tidal dissipation through the Moon and the growth of the Earth’s core. Due to the increased concentration of mass around the rotation axis of the spinning Earth during the growth of the core the rotation should have been accelerated. Controversially the tidal dissipation by the Moon, which is mainly dependent on the availability of open shallow seas and the kind of Moon escape from a nearby position, acts towards a deceleration of the rotating Earth. Measurements of LOD for Phanerozoic and Precambrian times open ways to solve questions concerning the geodynamical history of the Earth. These measurements encompass investigations of growth patterns in fossils and depositional patterns in sediments (Cyclostratigraphy, Tidalites, Stromatolites, Rhythmites). These patterns contain information on the LOD and on the changing distance between Earth and Moon and can be used as well for a discussion about the growth of the Earth’s core. By updating an older paper with its simple approach as well as incorporating newly published results provided by the geoscientific community, a moderate to fast growth of the core in a hot early Earth will be favored controversially to the assumption of a delayed development of the core in an originally cold Earth. Core development with acceleration of Earth’s rotation and the contemporaneous slowing down due to tidal dissipation during the filling of the ocean may significantly interrelate.

Analysis of the disease entities and typical characteristics of day surgery based on three Public Tertiary A hospitals in China

Background:In recent years,day surgery has gained widespread attention in the medical industry.This thesis focuses on three tertiary general hospitals in different regions in China where day surgery has been carried out earlier,is more developed,has a more comprehensive range of day surgery procedures,and has an annual volume of 10,000 or more day surgery cases.The study will provide hands-on experience for other medical institutions to carry out day surgery.Methods:67,337 valid items of data were retrieved from the Hospital Information Systems of the three hospitals.In this thesis,descriptive analysis was carried out on basic information about day surgery patients,including composition of patients’major diseases,hospitalization costs.Non-parametric tests were used to compare the data in each group,the median and interquartile range were used to show the trend in the concentration of the relevant indicators.The difference was considered statistically significant at P<0.05.Results:The largest proportion of day surgery patients were between the ages of 51 and 70.About 57.30%of day surgery patients paid for their medical care with the basic medical insurance of urban employees.Senile cataract,benign breast tumor,and endometrial polyp were the top three major diagnoses of day surgery patients.The average inpatient expenditure for day surgery patients was 8982.10 yuan,with consumables cost representing the highest proportion at approximately 46.01%of the total hospitalization cost,followed by treatment cost at around 31.01%of the total cost.Conclusions:Day surgery is more suitable for middle-aged patients and may not be the best choice for children and elderly patients over 80 years old.Most day surgery cases are elective surgeries for non-emergency situations.The distribution of day surgery patients is primarily concentrated in ophthalmic,breast,and reproductive system diseases,although each hospital has its own unique characteristics.The development of day surgery presents both economic and social benefits.

Days Matter软件预警功能在口腔专科医院物品效期管理的应用

目的探讨Days Matter软件预警功能对口腔专科医院物品效期自动化管理的效果。方法将科室物品分成仪器设备、耗材(常用和不常用类)两大类物品,运用Days Matter软件导入仪器设备及不常用耗材物品有效期并设置提醒功能。比较使用前后3个月每月护士检查该类物品效期所需平均时间。结果使用前,护士每月检查物品效期所需时间为(97.03±3.63)min,使用后为(26.73±1.19)min,使用前后比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。结论Days Matter软件操作简单,能精准监控物品效期,实现数据共享,节省检查时间。

混合方法:教育游戏评价研究的理想范式——以80Days教育游戏项目为例

教育游戏评价是教育游戏设计开发过程中的核心环节之一,是一项综合的、多准则、多因素的复杂工程。评价过程应该采用科学的评价研究范式,以避免信度与效度的缺失。在目前国内教育游戏评价研究几乎空白的境遇下,以欧盟委员会FP7框架计划下的科研项目———80Days教育游戏项目为例,介绍了混合方法下的教育游戏评价研究范式,以期对我国教育游戏评价研究与实践有所帮助。

The Absurdity of Happy Days

Happy Days,one of Samuel Beckett's renowned works,is remarkable for its absurdity.The paper approaches the predominant feature from such aspects as fragmented characters,disconnected language,peculiar structure and grotesque stagecraft.

On Aesthetic Representation at Phonological Level in English Versions of Zhu Ziqing's Lyric Prose Transient Days

The paper analyses aesthetic message at phonological level of Zhu Ziqing's lyric prose Transient Days and explores how such message is represented in English versions respectively translated by Zhang Peiji and Zhu Chunshen.

On the Main Characters in“Days of the Butterfly”

"Days of the Butterfly"was one of Alice Munro's short stories written in 1950 s, when she was still a new hand. This paper will mainly focus on the development of the main characters in the story, including Myra, the black girl who was the heroine, the teacher Miss Darling, and the Narrator"I". In portraying these characters, Munro adopted several writing techniques including conversation, detailed description, psychological description and so on. She vividly transferred those characters into paper.

水仙花日(Daffodil Days)简介

Daffodil为石蒜科水仙属(Narcissus)植物的统称,它们是一类具膜质有皮鳞茎的多年生草本,通常于春季开花。万物萧飒的冬季,水仙的叶片破土而出(图1)。待到早春时节,水仙花儿迸放(图2),拉开春色满园的序幕。而当春夏交替之季,地上的绿叶逐渐枯黄倒伏(图3),地下鳞茎进入休眠。水仙如此般,一岁一枯荣、周而复始。

An Abrupt Increase in the Summer High Temperature Extreme Days across China in the mid-1990s

Based on the daily maximum surface air temperature records from an updated homogenized temperature dataset for 549 Chinese stations during 1960-2008,we reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of days with high temperature extremes （HTEs,an HTE day is defined when the maximum temperature exceeds the 95th percentile of the daily maximum temperature distributions） across China in the mid-1990s.Before this regime shift,the average number of HTE days is about 2.9 d yr 1 during the period from the 1970s to the early 1990s,while it rocketed to about 7.2 d yr 1 after the mid-1990s.We show that the significant HTE day increase occurs uniformly across the whole of China after the regime shift.The observational evidence raises the possibility that this change in HTE days is associated with global-scale warming as well as circulation adjustment.Possible causes for the abrupt change in the HTE days are discussed,and the circulation adjustment is suggested to play a crucial role in the increase in HTE days in this region.

Changes of heating and cooling degree days over China in response toglobal warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ and 4℃

Future changes of heating degree days （HDD） and cooling degree days （CDD） in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 （RegCM4.4）driven by the global models of CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR. Under global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃,and 4℃, significant decrease of HDD can be found over China without considering population factor, with greater decrease over high elevationand high latitude regions, including the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China; while population-weightedHDD increased in areas where population will increase in the future, such as Beijing, Tianjin, parts of southern Hebei, northern Shandong andHenan provinces. Similarly, the CDD projections with and without considering population factor are largely different. Specifically, withoutconsidering population, increase of CDD were observed over most parts of China except the Tibetan Plateau where the CDD remained zerobecause of the cold climate even under global warming; while considering population factor, the future CDD decreases in South China andincreases in North China, the Sichuan Basin, and the southeastern coastal areas, which is directly related to the population changes. The differentfuture changes of HDD and CDD when considering and disregarding the effects of population show that population distribution plays animportant role in energy consumption, which should be considered in future research.

A Distinguishing Method and Distribution Characteristics of Fog and Haze Days in Fuzhou

For data of atmospheric composition missing, fog and haze days were distinguished based on the standard of meteorological industry Observation and Forecasting Levels of Haze （QX/T113-2010） and four user-defined standards, and using data of surface meteorological factors in Fuzhou City, China from 2005 to 2011, temporal distributions of fog and haze days were analyzed respectively to provide methods for fog and haze forecast. The results showed that there were 28.9 fog days and 89.7 haze days per year in Fuzhou. Both fog and haze days were variable, and there might be a day difference of twice to thrice among the years. They were the most in 2007, and then decreased in recent years. Both fog and haze days were more in winter and spring, accounted for 94.1% and 70.1% respectively, while in summer and autumn, they only accounted for 5.9% and 29.9% respectively. In a day, fog mainly occurred from night to early morning, while haze occurred mainly at about noon, which demonstrated that fog and haze are different synoptic phenomena. The mass concentration of PM2.5 in fog days was 34 μg/m^3, while it was 61 μg/m^3 in haze days, and in 22% of haze days it was larger than 75 μg/m3, which was above the national second-grade ambient air quality standard.

Decadal Variations of Winter Extreme Cold Days in Northern China

Weather and climate extremes often lead to dramatic losses in our society and warrant improvement of their understanding. In this study, the decadal variations in the first two dominant empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of winter extreme cold days (WECDs) in northern China (NC) have been investigated. Results show that both EOF modes show distinct decadal variations that together explain around 24% of total variances. At the decadal time scale, the EOF1 is closely related to the decadal Arctic Oscillation (AO);the negative AO can lead to spatially consistent increase of WECDs in NC. On the other hand, the decadal EOF2 can be influenced by the decadal El Ni&#241;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The decadal El Ni&#241;o can result in the large-scale negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the Eurasian continent west of the western NC and the positive ones over western China. The anomalous southwesterlies between the contrasted SLP anomalies can advect the warmer air from the lower latitudes to the western NC, decrease the WECDs there, and contribute to the east-west asymmetric WECD anomalies in NC. The impacts of El Ni&#241;o are confirmed by the numerical simulations in the Atmospheric Model 2.1 (AM2.1) when forced by the El Ni&#241;o-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific.

Long-Term Trends in the Probability of Different Grades of Haze Days in China from 1960 to 2013

The number of haze days and daily visibility data for 543 stations in China were used to define the probabilities of four grades of haze days:slight haze(SLH)days;light haze(LIH)days;moderate haze(MOH)days;and severe haze(SEH)days.The change trends of the four grades of haze were investigated and the following results were obtained.The highest probability was obtained for SLH days(95.138%),which showed a decreasing trend over the last54 years with the fastest rate of decrease of-0.903%·(10 years)-1 and a trend coefficient of-0.699,passing the 99.9%confidence level.The probabilities of LIH and MOH days increased steadily,whereas the probability of SEH days showed a slight downward trend during that period.The increasing probability of SLH days was mainly distributed to the east of 105°E and the south of 42°N and the highest value of the trend coefficient was located in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions.The increasing probability of LIH days was mainly distributed in eastern China and the southeastern coastal region.The probabilities of MOH and SEH days was similar to the probability of LIH days.An analysis of the four grades of haze days in cities with different sizes suggested that the probability of SLH days in large cities and medium cities clearly decreased during the last 54 years.However,the probabilities of LIH days was<10%and increased steadily.The probability of MOH days showed a clear interdecadal fluctuation and the probability of SEH days showed a weak upward trend.The probability of SLH days in small cities within 0.8°of large or medium cities decreased steadily,but the probability of LIH and MOH days clearly increased,which might be attributed to the impact of large and medium cities.The probability of SLH days in small cities>1.5°from a large or medium city showed an increasing trend and reached 100%after 1990;the probability of the other three grades was small and decreased significantly.