This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2...This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.展开更多
Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 30...Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6.展开更多
Understanding the connectivity of fish among different typical habitats is important for conducting ecosystembased management, particularly when designing marine protected areas(MPA) or setting MPA networks. To clarif...Understanding the connectivity of fish among different typical habitats is important for conducting ecosystembased management, particularly when designing marine protected areas(MPA) or setting MPA networks. To clarify of connectivity among mangrove, seagrass beds, and coral reef habitats in Wenchang, Hainan Province,China, the fish community structure was studied in wet and dry seasons of 2018. Gill nets were placed across the three habitat types, and the number of species, individuals, and body size of individual fish were recorded. In total, 3 815 individuals belonging to 154 species of 57 families were collected. The highest number of individuals and species was documented in mangroves(117 species, 2 623 individuals), followed by coral reefs(61 species,438 individuals) and seagrass beds(46 species, 754 individuals). The similarity tests revealed highly significant differences among the three habitats. Approximately 23.4% species used two habitats and 11.0% species used three habitats. A significant difference(p<0.05) in habitat use among eight species(Mugil cephalus, Gerres oblongus, Siganus fuscescens, Terapon jarbua, Sillago maculata, Upeneus tragula, Lutjanus russellii, and Monacanthus chinensis) was detected, with a clear ontogenetic shift in habitat use from mangrove or seagrass beds to coral reefs. The similarity indices suggested that fish assemblages can be divided into three large groups namely coral, seagrass, and mangrove habitat types. This study demonstrated that connectivity exists between mangrove–seagrass–coral reef continuum in Wenchang area;therefore, we recommend that fish connectivity should be considered when designing MPAs or MPA network where possible.展开更多
In order to study vegetation evolution and en- vironmental change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a total of 180 pollen samples with an average time resolution of 150 years were analyzed on the top parts(0–31 m...In order to study vegetation evolution and en- vironmental change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a total of 180 pollen samples with an average time resolution of 150 years were analyzed on the top parts(0–31 m, 0–27 kaBP)of deep sea sediments from ODP Site 1144 (20°3.18′N, 1170°25.14′E), northeastern SCS. The character- istic fea- tures of pollen diagram include that pine dominates in the interglacial, and herb pollen dominates with a good deal of tropical-subtropical pollen in the last glacial, and from 18 kaBP the tropical-subtropical pollen influx rose abruptly, while the herbaceous pollen influx and percentage dropped quickly, indicating that climate turned warmer and more humid, and more tropical-subtropical vegetation grew on the mainland and the emerging continental shelf, while the grassland on the shelf diminished. A detailed comparison shows an earlier change of pollen assemblages at the glacial- interglacial transition between MIS6 and 5 (Termination II) than the ice volume change indicated by the oxygen isotope record, implying that mid-low latitude climate warming pre- ceded ice sheet retreat. Millennial-scale climatic fluctuations of vegetation change in pollen record are also discussed.展开更多
As a prerequisite and a guarantee for safe and efficient natural gas hydrates(NGHs)exploitation,it is imperative to effectively determine the mechanical properties of NGHs reservoirs and clarify the law of the change ...As a prerequisite and a guarantee for safe and efficient natural gas hydrates(NGHs)exploitation,it is imperative to effectively determine the mechanical properties of NGHs reservoirs and clarify the law of the change in the mechanical properties with the dissociation of NGHs during NGHs production tests by depressurization.Based on the development of Japan’s two offshore NGHs production tests in vertical wells,this study innovatively proposed a new subsea communication technology-accurate directional connection using a wet-mate connector.This helps to overcome the technical barrier to the communication between the upper and lower completion of offshore wells.Using this new communication technology,this study explored and designed a mechanical monitoring scheme for lower completion(sand screens).This scheme can be used to monitor the tensile stress and radial compressive stress of sand screens caused by NGHs reservoirs in real time,thus promoting the technical development for the rapid assessment and real-time feedback of the in-situ mechanical response of NGHs reservoirs during offshore NGHs production tests by depressurization.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42275024 and 42105040the Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2022YFE0203500+3 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under contract Nos 2023B1515020009 and 2024B1515040024the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS under contract No.2020340the Special Fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.SCSIO2023QY01the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou under contract No.2024A04J6275.
文摘This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract No.2011CB403502the Major National Scientific Research Projects of China under contract No.2012CB957803+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41006018 and 41476024the Foundation for Outstanding Young and Middle-aged Scientists in Shandong Province of China under contract No.BS2011HZ019the UNESCO-IOC/WESTPAC Project"Response of marine hazards to climate change in the Western Pacific"
文摘Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41676096the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China under contract No.2017J01075+2 种基金the Technology Foundation for Selected Overseas Chinese Scholar Project“Impacts of Climate Change on Biology and Economy in the East China Sea”the National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2018YFC1406503the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund Project“Monitoring and Conservation of The Coastal Ecosystem in The South China Sea”。
文摘Understanding the connectivity of fish among different typical habitats is important for conducting ecosystembased management, particularly when designing marine protected areas(MPA) or setting MPA networks. To clarify of connectivity among mangrove, seagrass beds, and coral reef habitats in Wenchang, Hainan Province,China, the fish community structure was studied in wet and dry seasons of 2018. Gill nets were placed across the three habitat types, and the number of species, individuals, and body size of individual fish were recorded. In total, 3 815 individuals belonging to 154 species of 57 families were collected. The highest number of individuals and species was documented in mangroves(117 species, 2 623 individuals), followed by coral reefs(61 species,438 individuals) and seagrass beds(46 species, 754 individuals). The similarity tests revealed highly significant differences among the three habitats. Approximately 23.4% species used two habitats and 11.0% species used three habitats. A significant difference(p<0.05) in habitat use among eight species(Mugil cephalus, Gerres oblongus, Siganus fuscescens, Terapon jarbua, Sillago maculata, Upeneus tragula, Lutjanus russellii, and Monacanthus chinensis) was detected, with a clear ontogenetic shift in habitat use from mangrove or seagrass beds to coral reefs. The similarity indices suggested that fish assemblages can be divided into three large groups namely coral, seagrass, and mangrove habitat types. This study demonstrated that connectivity exists between mangrove–seagrass–coral reef continuum in Wenchang area;therefore, we recommend that fish connectivity should be considered when designing MPAs or MPA network where possible.
基金supported by the State Key Basic Research and Development Plan of China(Grant No.G2000078502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.49999560 and 49901018).
文摘In order to study vegetation evolution and en- vironmental change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a total of 180 pollen samples with an average time resolution of 150 years were analyzed on the top parts(0–31 m, 0–27 kaBP)of deep sea sediments from ODP Site 1144 (20°3.18′N, 1170°25.14′E), northeastern SCS. The character- istic fea- tures of pollen diagram include that pine dominates in the interglacial, and herb pollen dominates with a good deal of tropical-subtropical pollen in the last glacial, and from 18 kaBP the tropical-subtropical pollen influx rose abruptly, while the herbaceous pollen influx and percentage dropped quickly, indicating that climate turned warmer and more humid, and more tropical-subtropical vegetation grew on the mainland and the emerging continental shelf, while the grassland on the shelf diminished. A detailed comparison shows an earlier change of pollen assemblages at the glacial- interglacial transition between MIS6 and 5 (Termination II) than the ice volume change indicated by the oxygen isotope record, implying that mid-low latitude climate warming pre- ceded ice sheet retreat. Millennial-scale climatic fluctuations of vegetation change in pollen record are also discussed.
基金supported jointly by the major projects of Basic and Applied Basic Research in Guangdong Province“Key Basic Theory Research for Natural Gas Hydrate Trial Production in Shenhu Pilot Test Area”(2020B0301030003)the project from Southern Marine Science&Engineering Guangdong Laboratory in Guangzhou City“Research on New Closed Circulation Drilling Technology without Riser”(GML2019ZD0501).
文摘As a prerequisite and a guarantee for safe and efficient natural gas hydrates(NGHs)exploitation,it is imperative to effectively determine the mechanical properties of NGHs reservoirs and clarify the law of the change in the mechanical properties with the dissociation of NGHs during NGHs production tests by depressurization.Based on the development of Japan’s two offshore NGHs production tests in vertical wells,this study innovatively proposed a new subsea communication technology-accurate directional connection using a wet-mate connector.This helps to overcome the technical barrier to the communication between the upper and lower completion of offshore wells.Using this new communication technology,this study explored and designed a mechanical monitoring scheme for lower completion(sand screens).This scheme can be used to monitor the tensile stress and radial compressive stress of sand screens caused by NGHs reservoirs in real time,thus promoting the technical development for the rapid assessment and real-time feedback of the in-situ mechanical response of NGHs reservoirs during offshore NGHs production tests by depressurization.
