Assessment of impact of water diversion projects on ecological water uses in arid region

In arid regions, large-scale water diversion from rivers leads to significant changes in river flow regimes, which may have large impacts on ecological water uses of river-dependent ecosystems, such as river, lake, wetland, and riparian ecosystems. To assess the integrated impact of water diversion on ecological water uses, we proposed a hierarchy evaluation model composed of four layers representing the evaluation goal, sub-areas of the influenced region, evaluation criteria, and water diversion schemes, respectively. The evaluation criteria for different types of ecological water uses were proposed, and the analytical hierarchy process was used for the integrated assessment. For a river ecosystem, the percentage of mean annual flow was used to define the grade of environmental flow. For a lake ecosystem, water recharge to the lake to compensate the lake water losses was used to assess the ecological water use of a lake. The flooding level of the wetland and the groundwater level in the riparian plain were used to assess the wetland and riparian ecological water uses, respectively. The proposed model was applied to a basin in northern Xinjiang in northwest China, where both water diversion and inter-basin water transfer projects were planned to be carried out. Based on assessment results for the whole study area and two sub-areas, an appropriate scheme was recommended from four planning schemes. With the recommended scheme, ecological water uses of the influenced ecosystems can be maintained at an acceptable level. Meanwhile, economical water requirements can be met to a great extent.

Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Penalty model for delay of bidding section construction period in South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Project from perspective of programs

According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,

IMPACTS OF THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECTS (MIDDLE ROUTE)ON THE WATER ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE HANJIANG RIVER

In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well as their impacts on the environment of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The results showed that the 95×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme will cause less erosion and water level decrease than the 15×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme. Using a water diversion scheme of 95×10 8m 3, the decrease of water quantity can impact the river hydrodynamic regime substantially and the environments of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River will be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to develop new water resources or build projects to meet the need of the environment and the needs for navigation.

Water-saving potential evaluation of water-receiving regions in Shandong province on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China

Taking 13 water-receiving areas on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(ERSNWDP)in Shandong Province as the study area,and comparing it with Jiangsu Province on the ERSNWDP and the Middle Route of the South-to-North(MRSNWDP),the current water-saving potential of the water-receiving areas within the municipalities of Shandong was analyzed.Different water-saving scenarios were constructed and analyzed with key water-saving indexes in various industries.These indexes include the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water,total water consumption of industrial sectors with an added value of over 10000 RMB,average leakage rate of the urban public water supply pipe network and the penetration rate of water-saving appliances.Based on the scenarios,comprehensive water-saving potential of the 13 water-receiving area cities was calculated.The results show that the water-saving potential of the study area is at a relative high level.However,some cities still have a certain amount of water-saving potential for agriculture and industry to be elevated.Under the recommended water-saving scenario,the water-saving potential is 1.134 billion m3,accounting for 5.33%of the current total water consumption,of which 460 million m3 is in agriculture,600 million m3 in industry,is and 74.20 million m3 in urban domestic sector.Comprehensive water-saving measures for the study area were proposed from the aspects of agricultural,industrial and domestic water uses.Agricultural and industrial water saving are more significant.The major cities for agricultural water saving include Jining City,Heze City,Weifang City and Jinan City;the focus cities of industrial water saving mainly include Weihai City,Jining City and Qingdao City and etc.;the key water-saving areas for urban use mainly include Zaozhuang City,Jining City and Heze City.

Water diversion and agricultural production:Evidence from China

Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources.China’s Southto-North Water Diversion Project(SNWD)is the largest water diversion project worldwide.Based on the prefecturelevel data of China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2020,this study employs an empirical strategy of Differencesin-Differences(DID)to analyze the impact of SNWD on agricultural production.The results show that SNWD has significantly increased agricultural production,measured by the agricultural value added.The estimated results of the benchmark model remain robust when the contemporaneous policy is addressed,an alternative outcome is used,subsamples are estimated,and alternative estimation techniques are employed.This study argues that the potential impact mechanism may be that SNWD significantly increases the acreage for cash crops but reduces that for grain crops.Heterogeneity analysis shows that in prefectures with high temperature or land potential,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively low.In contrast,in areas with prolonged sunshine or high slopes,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively large.Given the low added value of grain crops,the government should consider strengthening food security by subsidizing water supply to sustain grain production.

Preliminary Study on Strategic Water Transfer Project in Western China

Strategic Water Transfer Project of Western China will transfer water from the Dadu river, the Yalong river, the Jinsha river, the Lancang river and the Nujiang river to the Daliushu project as head work of main canal on the Yellow river. And then,the water will be diverted to Neimongol and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions,with transfered annual volume of water 80 billion m\+3. The project possesses great comprehensive benefit. The construction of the project will not only change the appearance of the whole Northwest China, but also open up a wide way for the sustainable development of China in future.

南水北调中线水源区植被指数时空变化分析

通过单线性回归(SLOPE)和地理加权回归(GWR)法,用植被指数(NDVI)研究南水北调中线水源区的植被分布变化趋势及机制,为保障水量和水质提供理论支撑。结果表明,2000—2019年水源区NDVI和入库流量呈现同步增长,植被逐渐变好,2007年以前NDVI增长幅度大,2008—2011年处于波动阶段,2012年以后增长幅度减小;NDVI变化最明显的是研究区东北部、西部和丹江口库区周边,这些区域地势相对低平、人口集中,中山和高山区NDVI变化不大;高程、坡度、人口数和城镇化是影响水源区NDVI分布的主要因素,降水、气温和产业比重是次要因素;各因素影响的强度和方向在空间上有异质性,自然地理因素对NDVI影响的最显著范围为高程1090 m以下、年均降水量980 mm以上的区域,人文地理因素影响的显著范围区是人口密度大、城镇化率高的地区。

Computing payment for ecosystem services in watersheds: An analysis of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion in China

Payment for ecosystem services （PES） has attracted considerable attention as an economic incentive for promoting natural resource management recently. As emphasis has been placed on using the incentive-based mechanism by the central government, rapid progress on PES research and practice has been achieved. However PES still faces many difficulties. A key issue is the lack of a fully-fledged theory and method to clearly define the design scope, accounting and feasibility of PES criteria. An improved watershed criteria model was developed in light of research on PES practices in China, investigations on the water source area for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion and ecosystem services outflows theory. The basic principle of assessment is the direct and opportunity cost for ecological conservation and environmental protection in the water source area deduct nationally-financed PES and internal effect. Then the scope and the criteria methods were determined, and internal effect was put forward to define benefits brought from water source area. Finally, Shiyan City, which is the main water source area for the Project of Water Diversion, was analyzed by this model and its payment was calculated. The results showed that： （1） during 2003–2050, the total direct cost and opportunity cost would reach up to 262.70 billion and 256.33 billion Chinese Yuan （CNY, 2000 constant prices）, i.e., 50.61% and 49.38% of total cost, respectively; （2） Shiyan City would gain 0.23, 0.06 and 0.03 CNY/m3 in 2014–2020, 2021–2030, and 2031–2050, respectively.

On conservation and development of architecture and environment in the construction of large-scale national infrastructure——Exemplified by the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project

The water-diverting route project’s characteristics,natural landscapes,and histories and humanism of the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project were systemically analyzed through proposing and studying the canal culture routes,the water resources heritage corridors,the landscape and recreation corridors,and the town economic corridors.The station areas along the water-diverting route were scientifically zoned and graded through quantitative and qualitative synthetic methods.Both planning compendiums and construction controlling methods were proposed based on the project grades of points,lines,and areas.Conservation and development of architecture and environment in the large-scale national infrastructure construction were explored systemically.Theories and methods of developing harmonious water-supplying functions,ecological functions,landscape effects,and cultural effects of large-scale water resources were examined.

南水北调中线供水区水域面积变化遥感分析

为更好地研究调水对供水区域水域面积的影响,利用遥感技术研究了南水北调中线工程调水前后供水区及其下游四季的水域面积变化情况及其动因。研究表明:在调水工程实施之后,汉江中下游区域出现了水域面积大幅度下降的情况,汉江流域水域面积从2011年到2015年整体减少,尤其是春夏季水域面积减少最多,春季减少52.6km^(2),夏季减少65.8km^(2),减少比例达到17.3%,秋季和冬季水域面积减少幅度较小,秋季水域面积减少23.4km^(2),冬季水域面积减少最少,为4.2km^(2)。

南水北调工程运行对河北省地下水位变化的影响研究

为探讨南水北调工程对河北省平原区地下水位变化的影响,收集和分析不同时期的地下水位数据。研究结果显示:南水北调工程投入运行后,河北省地下水埋深整体呈现先下降后上升的趋势;不同地区和不同水文条件下的地下水位变化与南水北调工程之间存在显著差异。综上所述,南水北调工程对河北省地下水位的影响是复杂而多样化的,确定南水北调工程对河北地下水位的恢复是积极的,研究结果对合理管理和保护河北省地下水资源具有重要意义。

Application of SEDEA to evaluation of degree of harmony between water resources and economic development

This paper introduces the method of data envelopment analysis （DEA） for evaluation of the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of the water conservancy area of China＇s South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）. For this evaluation, a super-efficiency DEA （SEDEA） model was developed based on the super-efficiency method. To verify the applicability of the SEDEA model, both the SEDEA model and a normal-efficiency DEA （NEDEA） model were used to evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of typical cities in the SNWDP water conservancy area. The results show that the SEDEA model ranks the degree of harmony of typical cities more efficiently than the NEDEA model, and thus can better evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of different cities than the NEDEA model. Furthermore, the SEDEA model can be applied as an operational research tool in regional water resources management.

南水北调平原水库服务价值与区域高质量发展耦合协调研究——以山东省德州市大屯水库为例

为了研究生态水利工程服务价值,以及生态水利工程服务价值与受水区域高质量发展之间的耦合协调关系,本文以山东省德州市大屯水库及其受水区域为典型案例,在选取大屯水库及德州市相关统计数据的基础上,一方面通过创建大屯水库服务价值核算指标体系及核算指标计算公式,对大屯水库服务价值进行测算;另一方面通过构建区域高质量发展评价指标体系,以及生态水利工程服务价值与区域高质量发展耦合协调度模型,进而以深入探究二者之间的耦合协调关系。研究结果表明:1)大屯水库服务价值主要是以供水功能价值、生态环境功能价值为主。2019年大屯水库服务价值比2013年共增加了20694.90万元,增幅达到64.66%。2)2013—2019年大屯水库服务价值综合指数总体呈现波动上升趋势,综合指数由2013年的0.26波动上升至2019年的0.60。2013—2019年德州市高质量发展综合指数总体呈波动下降趋势,综合指数由2013年的0.54波动下降为2019年的0.52。2014—2017年德州市高质量发展水平相对较低,而其余年份均处于区域高质量发展的一般水平阶段。3)2013—2019年大屯水库服务价值与德州市高质量发展之间的耦合协调度呈现波动上升的发展趋势,耦合协调度值由2013年的0.61波动上升至2019年的0.75。2013—2019年二者的相对发展度也呈现波动上升的发展态势,相对发展度值由2013年的0.49波动上升至2019年的1.15。总体而言,大屯水库服务价值与德州市高质量发展已经基本形成良性互动,但二者之间的耦合协调水平还有待进一步提升。

南水北调东线平原水库生态服务效益评估--以大屯水库为例

为评估南水北调东线平原水库生态服务效益,基于生态系统服务理论,综合影子工程法、意愿支付法等方法提出服务价值核算标准;将粗糙集理论和层次分析法作为权重确定方法,进一步评估平原水库对地区人类福祉的贡献;以大屯水库为实际案例开展应用研究。结果表明:平原水库具备洪水调蓄、固碳释氧、水源涵养等共计12项生态服务功能;以水量供给为纽带,为地区带来经济、生态、社会效益,促进地区福祉提升;大屯水库具备8项服务功能,2021年时该水库总服务价值达2.365亿元,供给服务价值是其主要构成,该水库为地区提供的经济、生态和社会效益各占50%、41%和9%。研究成果在指导管理机构实现科学管理,促进水利工程更好地实现生态价值方面具有实践意义。

京密引水工程管理模式与效益分析

京密引水工程是为解决北京中心城区供水和沿线农田灌溉而修建的,现已运行六十余年。本文回顾了京密引水工程的建设和运行历程,总结了创新管理手段和观念,以及推进京密引水工程运行管理标准化、实现高质量发展的经验和做法,对京密引水工程产生的经济、社会和生态环境效益进行了分析,可为相关工程提供借鉴和参考。

南水北调中线受水区保定平原地下水质量演变预测研究

由于多年大规模过度开采地下水,南水北调受水区保定平原地下水严重超采,部分含水层疏干,进而引发地下水降落漏斗、地面沉降及地裂缝等环境地质问题。随着南水北调工程通水,地下水压采工作持续推进,河湖生态补水工作的全面展开,华北平原局部地区地下水位已呈现回升趋势。本文针对华北平原典型区域——南水北调受水区保定平原开展地下水位回升条件下的水质演化预测研究,采用电位分布-多点位络合模型(CD-MUSIC)预测2030年浅层地下水位上升后,水岩相互作用过程中的表面络合作用、铁锰氧化物及氢氧化物的吸附作用、离子的竞争与协同吸附效应,以及不同矿物的溶解平衡反应。结果表明:至2030年保定平原浅层地下水位整体上升后,水质逐渐向盐化方向发展,HCO3-SO4型水代替HCO3型水成为保定平原主要的阴离子水化学类型,平原东部高阳-蠡县地区出现了Cl型水,Na-Ca型水成为保定平原中东部地区主要的阳离子水化学类型;地层中岩盐及石膏的矿物溶解造成平原西部的山前冲洪积扇地区TDS含量显著上升,平原东部浅层地下水漏斗区域受到强烈的阳离子交替吸附作用影响,Ca、Mg含量显著下降,TDS及硬度下降明显,水位恢复对地下水漏斗区域水质改善具有一定的积极作用。