Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

THE APPLICABILITY OF RESEARCH ON FLOOD－DROUGHT TENDENCY－AN ANALYSIS ON DISASTROUS FLOOD OF TAIHU LAKE BASININ JUNE－JULY，1991

In Taihu Lake basin during June-July in 1991, there happened a catastrophic flood, the precipitation reached that of 1954 and the water level was the highest in the history in Taihu Lake. This heaVy flood, happening in the relatively humid period and being well accord with flood-drought change tendency, was early precautioned.The occurrence of the flood illustrated that using records of historical climate to predict flood-dronght tendency is practically significant for hazard-reduction project.

Characteristics of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses in Different Crop Rotation Systems in the North of Erhai Lake Basin

[Objective] Nitrogen and phosphorus losses of surface runoff in various crop rotation systems in the north of Erhai Lake basin were studied with the objective to provide references for risk evaluation of environmental pollution and formulating countermeasures to control the nonpoint source pollution from agriculture.[Method] Water samples collected in four typical crop rotation systems distributed in seven towns（townships） in the north of Erhai Lake basin were investigated,as well as the fertilizer input,to explore the dynamic change of nitrogen and phosphorus content in surface water of farmland and ditch water,and the correlation between fertilizer input and the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in the surface water of farmland and in the ditch water.[Result] The results showed that nitrogen loss in surface water of farmland in different crop rotation systems differed greatly,and the risk of nitrogen loss was 38% lower in broad bean-rice crop rotation than that in garlic-rice crop rotation.The water soluble nitrogen was the primary form of nitrogen loss.The content of water soluble nitrogen was significantly higher in garlic-rice crop rotation than that in the other rotation systems,and the concentrations of nitrogen in the surface water of farmland in different crop rotation systems followed the sequence below：garlic-rice crop rotationryegrass-rice crop rotationbroad bean-rice crop rotationrape-rice crop rotation.The loss of phosphorus in the surface water of farmland was relatively low and phosphorus combined with silt was the primary form for phosphorus loss.There was no significant difference of the loss of various forms of phosphorus in different crop rotation systems.The contents of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the surface water of farmland were higher than that in ditch water,with increasing rates of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in ditch water of 72% and 82%,respectively.Topdressing was the critical reason for the high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in the surface water,which also caused the increasing load to the ditch water.[Conclusion] Both the nitrogen and phosphorus loss were the highest in garlic-rice crop rotation.Reasonable crop rotation systems should be established based on both the environmental and economic benefits.This study provided references for controlling the nonpoint source pollution of farmland and improving the water quality of Erhai Lake.

Effects of Aquatic Plants on the Feature of Sediment Resuspension in Lake Taihu

[Objective] The aim was to study effects of aquatic plants on resuspen- sion of sediment in Lake Taihu. [Method] New resuspension simulator was used in the research. Elodea nuttalli, submerged plant, and Phragmites australis, emergent aquatic plant, were grown in substrate sludge with varied planting density set. Study of simulation experiment on the feature of sediment resuspension was carried on under shearing stress of 0.2-0.5 N/m2 and agitation of 1-30 min. [Result] Aquatic plant growing would effectively reduce seston concentration in water. Concentrations of final Suspended Particulate Matter （SPM） in experimental groups and control groups were as follows： water without plant〉coverage of 30% of Elodea nuttalli〉cov- erage of 60% of Elodea nuttalli〉Phragmites australis with concentration of 50 stock/m2〉 coverage of 90% of Elodea nuttalli〉Phragmites australis with concentration of 80 stock/m2〉Phragmites australis with concentration of 150 stock/m2; SPM concentration showed a tendency from increasing to stable with change of stirring time under dif- ferent shearing stresses： SPM concentration was of severe change at early stage in barrel without aquatic plant while change of SPM concentration in barrel with aquatic plant was quite mild and grew smaller with concentration increasing; SPM concentration was reduced much more if Phragmites australis planted compared with that of Elodea nuttalli; under different shearing stresses, reduction of SPM concen- tration by increase of Phragmites australis area was much more than by increase of Elodea nuttalli area. [Conclusion] It would provide powerful scientific reference for control on aquatic environment through comprehensive research on the feature of sediment resuspension.

Sediment distribution pattern mapped from the combination of objective analysis and geostatistics in the large shallow Taihu Lake, China

Investigation was made into sediment depth at 723 irregularly scattered measurement points which cover all the regions in Taihu Lake, China. The combination of successive correction scheme and geostatistical method was used to get all the values of recent sediment thickness at the 69×69 grids in the whole lake. The results showed that there is the significant difference in sediment depth between the eastern area and the western region, and most of the sediments are located in the western shore-line and northern regimes but just a little in the center and eastern parts. The notable exception is the patch between the center and Xishan Island where the maximum sediment depth is more than 4.0 m. This sediment distribution pattern is more than likely related to the current circulation pattern induced by the prevailing wind-forcing in Taihu Lake. The numerical simulation of hydrodynamics can strong support the conclusion. Sediment effects on water quality was also studied and the results showed that the concentrations of TP, TN and SS in the western part are obviously larger than those in the eastern regime, which suggested that more nutrients can be released from thicker sediment areas.

Composition analysis of colored dissolved organic matter in Taihu Lake based on three dimension excitation-emission fuorescence matrix and PARAFAC model, and the potential application in water quality monitoring

Taihu Lake is one of the five biggest lakes in China. Surface water samples from 26 sampling sites of Taihu Lake were collected. Furthermore wet chemical analysis （CODCr and BOD5） and measurement of three dimensional excitation-emission matrix （3DEEM） spectra in the laboratory have been conducted. Using parallel factor analysis （PARAFAC） model, three components of colored dissolved organic matter （CDOM） have been identified successfully, based on the analysis of 3DEEM data. The characteristics of the three components also have been described by comparing them to some components of CDOM, identified in earlier researches. Meanwhile, spatial variations of concentration for the three components in Taihu Lake have been analyzed, and the result indicates that the concentration of component 1 depends more on the situation of wastewater pollution and can be used as the indicator of wastewater pollution. The relationship between the concentrations of the three components and results of the wet chemical analysis show that none of the three components can be used as indicators of gross organic matter in water. However, the concentrations of all the three components have obvious linear relationships with the BOD5 value, especially for component 1 （r = 0.72878）. Finally, the potential applications of the composition analysis based on 3DEEM and PARAFAC model in water quality monitoring have been illuminated.

Ecological and environmental water demand of the lakes in the Haihe-Luanhe Basin of North China

The purpose of this paper is to present a brief concept of the ecological and environmental water demand of lake. The present situation and affecting factors of lake ecological system in the Haihe\|Luanhe Basin of North China was analyzed. The calculating method of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the water body and the calculating method of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the aquatic ecosystem, wetland and vegetation were compared and discussed. As the examples of Baiyangdian Lake and Beidagang Lake in Haihe\|Luanhe river basin, the ecological and environmental water demand of the two lakes was calculated to be 27×10\+8m\+3. It is 6.75 times to the water demand according to the calculating method of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the water body. The research result indicated: (1) The calculating methods of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the aquatic ecosystem should be better than only basis on the water body of lake. (2) The data, such as area of the vegetation kind around and in the lake, the vegetation coefficient, the evaporating amount of the vegetation and the vegetation water demand itself around and in the lake are lack and urgent need. Some suggestions for controlling and regulating the water resource of the lake in North China were proposed.

Beta-Glucosidase Activity in Paddy Soils of the Taihu Lake Region, China

The profile distribution of β-gulcosidase activity in twelve typical paddy soil profiles with high productivity in the Taihu Lake region of China were investigated. Activities of β-gulcosidase in the plow layers were in the range of 52.68- 137.02μg PNP g^-1 soil h^-1 with a mean of 89.22μg PNP g^-1 soil h^-1. However, most plow layers ranged from 70 to 110 μg PNP g^-1 soil h^-1. The profile distribution of β-gulcosidase activity in the 12 soil profiles decreased rapidly with soil depth, with activity at the 60 cm depth only about 10% of that in the surface layers （0-15 cm or 0-20 cm）. In these soil profiles, β-gulcosidase activity was significantly positively correlated with soll organic carbon and arylsulphatase activity. Meanwhile, a significantly negative correlation was shown between β-gulcosidase activity and soil pH.

Magnetostratigraphy and ^(230)Th dating of a drill core from the southeastern Qaidam Basin:Salt lake evolution and tectonic implications

The Qarhan Salt Lake area is the Quaternary depocenter of the Qaidam Basin, and carries thick lacustrine sediments, as well as rich potassium and magnesium salt deposits. The abundant resources and thick sediments in this lake provide an ideal place for the study of biogas formation and preservation, salt lake evolution, and the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we attempt to construct a paleomagnetic and ^(230)Th age model and to obtain information on tectonic activity and salt lake evolution through detailed studies on a 1300-m-long drill core(15DZK01) from the northwestern margin of the Qarhan Salt Lake area(Dongling Lake). Based on gypsum ^(230)Th dating, the age of the uppermost clastic deposit was calculated to be around 0.052 Ma. The polarity sequence consist of 13 pairs of normal and reversed zones,which can be correlated with subchrons C2r.1r-C1n of the geomagnetic polarity timescale(GPTS 2012)(from ~2.070 Ma to ~0.052 Ma). Sedimentary characteristics indicate that Dongling Lake witnessed freshwater environment between ~ 2.070 Ma and 1.546 Ma. During this period, the sedimentary record reflects primarily lakeshore, shallow-water and swamp environments, representing favourable conditions for the formation of hydrocarbon source rocks. Between 1.546 Ma and ~ 0.052 Ma, the Dongling Lake was in sulphate deposition stage, which contrasts with the central Qarhan Salt Lake area, where this stage did not occur in the meantime. During this stage, Dongling Lake was in a shallow saltwater lake environment, but several periods of reduced salinity occurred during this stage. During the late Pleistocene at ~0.052 Ma, the Dongling Lake experienced uplift due to tectonic activity, and saltwater migrated through the Sanhu Fault to the central Qarhan Salt Lake area, resulting in the absence of halite deposition stage. The residual saline water was concentrated into magnesium-rich brine due to the lack of freshwater, and few potassium salt deposits occur in the Dongling Lake area.

Relationship Between Changes of River-lake Networks and Water Levels in Typical Regions of Taihu Lake Basin,China

The typical regions of the Taihu Lake Basin,China,were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of river-lake networks under intensive human activities.The characteristics of the fractal dimension of river networks and lakes for different periods were investigated and the influences of river system evolution on water level changes were further explored through the comparison of their fractal characters.The results are as follows:1) River network development of the study area is becoming more monotonous and more simple;the number of lakes is reducing significantly,and the water surface ratio has dropped significantly since the 1980s.2) The box dimension of the river networks in all the cities of the study area decreased slowly from the 1960s to the 1980s,while the decrease was significant from the 1980s to the 2000s.The variations of lake correlation dimension are similar to those of the river network box dimensions.This is unfavorable for the storage capacity of the river networks and lakes.3) The Hurst exponents of water levels were all between 0.5 and 1.0 from the 1960s to the 1980s,while decreased in the 2000s,indicating the decline in persistence and increase in the complexity of water level series.The paper draws a conclusion that the relationship between the fractal dimension of river-lake networks and the Hurst exponents of the water level series can reveal the impacts of river system changes on flood disasters to some extent:the disappearance of river networks and lakes will increase the possibility of flood occurrence.

Maintaining healthy rivers and lakes through water diversion from Yangtze River to Taihu Lake in Taihu Basin

On the basis of the Taihu water resources assessment, an analysis of the importance and rationality of the water diversion from the Yangtz,e River to Taihu Lake in solving the water problem and establishing a harmonious eco-environment in the Taihu Basin is performed. The water quantity and water quality conjunctive dispatching ＇decisi＂ofi-makifig support system, which ensures flood control, water supply and eco-aimed dispatching, is built by combining the water diversion with flood control dispatching and strengthening water resources monitoring and forecasting. With the practice and effect assessment, measures such as setting the -integrated basin management format, further developing water diversion and improving the hydraulic engineering projects system and water monitoring system are proposed in order to maintain healthy rivers and guarantee the development of the economy and society in the Taihu Basin.

Effects of climate change and human activity on lake shrinkage in Gonghe Basin of northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past 60 years

Changes in the status of freshwater resources are a topic of major global, regional and local concern. This is especially so in the arid and semi-arid regions of China, where shortage of water resources plays a crucial role in limiting sustainable socioeconomic development, as well as in sustaining natural ecosystems. Recent climate change, as well as the effects of localized human activity, such as the use of water for irrigation agriculture, may have significant effects on the status of the water resources in the region. Here, we report the results of a study of changes in the areas of lakes in Gonghe Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau of China, over the last 60 years. The data were acquired from optical satellite images and demonstrate that the total water area of lakes in Gonghe Basin decreased significantly from the 1950s to 1980s. The cause is ascribed mainly to human activity including exploitation of farmland, against a background of increasing population; in addition, climatic data for the region demonstrate a minor drying trend during this period as the temperature increased slightly. After the construction of several reservoirs, significant amounts of water were redistributed to promote irrigation agriculture and we conclude that this caused a significant shrinkage of the natural lakes. However, both the area of farmland and the population size remained approximately constant after 1990. We conclude that the variation of the total area of lakes during the second period was mainly controlled by climatic factors （precipitation and temperature）. As the regional temperature reached a new high, the area of some of the lakes decreased sharply before finally maintaining a relatively steady state. We emphasize that anthropogenic climate change and human activity have both significantly influenced the status of water resources in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.

Glacier extent changes and possible causes in the Hala Lake Basin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Glacier is a common sensitivity indicator of environmental and global climate change.Examining the relationship between glacier area and climate change will help reveal glacier change mechanisms and future trends.Glacier changes are also of great significance to the regulation of regional water resources.This study selected the Hala Lake Basin in the northeastern Qinhai-Tibet Plateau as a study area,and examined the relationships between the temporal and spatial change of glaciers in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and climate change based on remote sensing imagery,climatological data,and topographic data during the past 30 years.Results showed that glacier area in the Hala Lake basin fluctuated and decreased from106.24 km2 in 1986 to 78.84 km2 in 2015,with a decreasing rate of 0.94 km2·yr-1.The number of glacier patches,mean patch area,and largest patch index all decreased from 1986 to 2015,while the splitting index increased from 1986 to 2015,indicating that the landscape fragmentation of glacier in the Hala Lake Basin was increasing significantly during the study period.Glacier area change was mainly concentrated in the slopes>25°with an altitude of 4500-5000 m,and the retreating rate of glacier of sunny slope was obviously higher than that of shady slope.Geometric center of glacier in the basin moved from southwest to northeast towards high altitude.Results of the response of glacier extent to climate change showed that temperature was the dominant factor affecting glacier area dynamic change in the Hala Lake Basin.It is predicted that in future several years,the glacier area will decrease and fragment continually as a result of global warming on the Tibetan Plateau.

Impact of Taihu Lake on City Ozone in the Yangtze River Delta

The lake-breeze at Taihu Lake generates a different specific heat capacity between the water body and the surrounding land. Taihu Lake has a significant impact on the atmospheric conditions and the air quality in the Yangtze River Delta. This phenomenon is referred to as the Taihu Lake effect. In this study, two simulations were conducted to determine the impact of the Taihu Lake effect in the reference experiment （R-E） and sensitivity experiments （NO_TH）. The control simulations demonstrated that the meteorological field and the spatial distribution of ozone （03） concentrations over Taihu lake obviously changed once the land-use type of water body was substituted by cropland. The surface temperature of Taihu Lake was reduced under the impact of Taihu Lake, and a huge temperature difference caused a strong lake-breeze effect. The results also showed that the difference in the average concentrations of 03 between the R-E and NO_TH experiments reached 12 ppbv in most areas of Taihu Lake, all day, on 20 May 2014. During daytime （0800-1600 LST, LST=UTC＋8）, the influence of the Taihu Lake effect on 03 in the Suzhou region was not significant. However, the influence of the Taihu Lake effect on 03 in the Suzhou region was obvious during nighttime （1800-2400 LST）. The larger changes in the physical and chemical processes were horizontal and vertical advections under the influence of the Taihu Lake effect in Taihu Lake.

Trade-offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in the Taihu Lake Ba- sin of China

Understanding the spatial interactions among multiple ecosystem services is crucial for ecosystem services management. Ecosystem services, including crop production, freshwater supply, aquatic production, net primary production, soil conservation, water conservation, flood regulation, forest recreation, were measured at 1-km grid scale covering the Taihu Lake Basin(TLB) of China. Our objective is to get a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distributions, trade-offs, synergies of multiple ecosystem services across the TLB. Our results found that: 1) majority of ecosystem services were clustered in space and had a similar spatial distribution pattern with the geographical resource endowment. Most of the landscape contributed a high supply of no services, one or two, and a low supply of three to seven services. 2) There were high correlation between forest recreation and freshwater supply and regulating services. Aquatic production had low correlation with other services. 3) The changes of provisioning services led to trade-offs between regulating services and cultural services in the TLB, while synergies mainly occurred among the provisioning service. 4) The spatial relationships of multiple services are consistent at 1-km spatial scale, counties and provinces. This research could help integrate multiple ecosystem services across scales and serve as a reference for decision making.

New Normal Control of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in the Dianchi Lake Basin

Based on Kunming statistical yearbook and field survey data of agricultural non-point source pollution in counties or districts in the Dianchi Lake basin,previous and current situation of agricultural production and agricultural non-point source pollution control in the Dianchi Lake basin were studied,and countermeasures and suggestions of comprehensive control of agricultural non-point source pollution in the basin were proposed.

Discussion on Role of Forest to Control Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in Taihu Lake Basin-Based on Source-Sink Analysis

Taihu Lake is located at the center of Changjiang delta region, the Lake and its effluent rivers are important water sources for 40 million around inhabitants and rapidly increasing industrial factories in Shanghai, Ji-angsu and Zhejiang. The pollutants originate mainly from acidy rain, home sewage of the vast number of inhabitants, livestock manure, agricultural fertilizers & pesticides applied over fields in the drainage basin, and the industrial sewage. Due to the kinds of pollutants, the Lake water is getting highly eutrophic, with frequent blooms of blue-green algae. Compared with point-source pollutants, diffuse pollution is much com-plicated and difficult to control. Thus combating non-point pollution (NPP) is paid much great attention. Based on analysis on source-sink of NPP in Taihu Lake basin, it is concluded that the function of forests on NPP control is multiple and important by both source reduction and sink expansion. The primary objective of planting trees through constructing forested wetlands and establishing riparian forest buffers is to control soil & water erosion, decrease agrochemicals application, and improve farming conditions in the region of Taihu Lake basin. Moreover forests help to intercept acidy rain, protect streambanks, uptake nutrients, hold up pollutants and provide habitat for wildlife.

Water Pollution and Environmental Governance of the Tai and Chao Lake Basins in China in an International Perspective

The Tai and Chao Lake basins are currently facing a serious water pollution crisis associated with the absence of an effective environmental governance system. The water pollution and the water governance system of the two basins will be compared. The reasons for water pollution in both basins are similar, namely the weak current water environmental governance system cannot deal with the consequences of the rapidly growing economy. China’s water governance system is a complicated combination of basin management with both departmental management and regional management. There is an absence of legal support and sound coordination mechanisms, resulting in fragmented management practices in the existing water environmental governance system. A comparison is made for the Tai and Chao Lake basins and Canada, France, the United Kingdom and the United States. Based on China’s present central-local governance structure and departmental system, an integrated reform of basin level and water environmental governance in China should learn from international experiences. The reforms could consist of improved governance structures, rebuilding authoritative and powerful agencies for basin management, strengthening the organizational structure of the basin administrations, improving legislation and regulatory systems for basin management and enhancing public participation mechanisms.

Formation Conditions and Sedimentary Model of Over-Flooding Lake Deltas within Continental Lake Basins: An Example from the Paleogene in the Jiyang Subbasin, Bohai Bay Basin

A large quantity of drilling core, paleontology, geochemistry and geophysics data revealed several features of the Jiyang subbasin during the deposition of the Ekl-ES4x members： （1） the paleotopography of the gentle slope belt had an extremely low gradient; （2） the paleoclimate frequently alternated between dry and wet periods in a generally arid setting; （3） there was strong weathering around the periphery of the basin; （4） the lake was very shallow; （5） the lake level frequently rose and fell; and （6） the sedimentary environment of the gentle slope belt was an over- flooding lake. All of these factors provided favorable geological conditions for the development of an over-flooding lake delta. The lithologies of the continental over-flooding lake delta deposits are complex and diverse. The compositional maturity is moderate to low, and the grain size distribution curves and sedimentary structures indicate the presence of both gravity and traction currents. The sedimentary microfacies associations consist of a combination of ordered superposition of flood channels, distributary channels and sheet sands. The delta exhibits a weak foreset seismic reflection. The over-flooding lake delta deposits are laterally extensive. The sandstone content is high, and the individual sandstone beds are thin. The flood channel and distributary channel deposits exhibit evidence of bifurcation and lateral migration. The distribution of the sandbodies and the oxidation color of the mudstones provide evidence of cyclic deposition. The paleoclimate was the dominant factor controlling the development of the over-flooding lake delta. Due to the frequently alternating wet and dry paleoclimates, the over-flooding lake delta is characterized by the development of a broad upper plain and a lower delta plain. The upper delta plain is characterized by flood channel deposits, whereas the lower delta plain is represented by distributary channel deposits. The transition zone is characterized by the interaction of flood channels and distributary channels. Due to fault activity, the sandbodies of the over-flooding lake delta were juxtaposed against hydrocarbon source rocks, which was favorable for the development of lithologic reservoirs or structural-lithologic reservoirs. The lower delta plain deposits comprise the most favorable reservoirs.

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.