Central Asia revealed as a key area in evolution of Eremurus (Asphodelaceae)

Eremurus was described at the beginning of the 19th century.However,due to limited sampling and the small number of gene markers to date,its phylogeny and evolution are largely unknown.In this study,we analyzed plastomes from 27 species belonging to 2 subgenera and 3 sections of Eremurus,which are found in Central Asia(its center of diversity)and China.We also analyzed nuclear DNA ITS of 33 species,encompassing all subgenera and sections of the genus in Central Asia,southwest Asia and China.Our findings revealed that the genus was monophyletic,although both subgenera Eremurus and Henningia were found to be paraphyletic.Both plastome and nrDNA-based phylogenetic trees had three clades that did not reflect the current taxonomy of the genus.Our biogeographical and time-calibrated trees suggest that Eremurus originated in the ancient Tethyan area in the second half of the Eocene.Diversification of Eremurus occurred from the early Oligocene to the late Miocene.Paratethys Sea retreat and several orogenetic events,such as the progressive uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding mountain belts(Altai,Pamir,Tian Shan),caused serious topographic and climate(aridification)changes in Central Asia that may have triggered a split of clades and speciation.In this transformed Central Asia,speciation proceeded rapidly driven mainly by vicariance caused by numerous mountain chains and specialization to a variety of climatic,topographic and soil conditions that exist in this region.

The Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)Project in Central Asia:The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.

Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia:Evidence from rural Tajikistan

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia.We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.Based on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan,we estimate the expenditure,income,and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model.Then,we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock.There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups,with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods,such as meat,fruit,eggs,and milk,in rural households.Moreover,our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic.These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.

US Primary Policy Towards Central Asia

The emergence of the Central Asian republics into the international stage presented a new frontier for US policymakers.US involvement in Central Asia began with the collapse of the USSR.Following the collapse of the Soviet Union,Washington initiated official relations with the region’s newly interdependent states.From 1991 until the mid-1990s,the region to some extent was of only marginal importance to the United States.The region was viewed as less important,perhaps because the highest US priority at that time was Russia itself.US policy in Central Asia,was initially based on the“Russia first”principle.However,later on Washington paid special attention to the region and recognised American national interests there.This paper aims to address this main question:To what extent were US interests affected by independence of the Central Asian republics during the initial phase?The paper findings indicate that during the early stage of US engagement in Central Asia,there was no uniformity and strategic framework in Washington approach toward this region.

The evolution of central environmental protection inspection policy attention in China: An investigation based on inspection reports

The central environmental protection inspection (CEPI) system in China is a significant institutional innova‐tion in national environmental governance. The CEPI applies a joint supervision strategy to address salient en‐vironmental issues and strictly enforce the environmental responsibilities of local governments. This study col‐lects and organizes CEPI inspection reports covering three stages that encompass the first round, the “look back”, and the second round, applying text analysis to obtain sample data and conduct statistical quantifica‐tion of word frequency in inspection reports and identify notable changes. The study explores the allocation of CEPI attention between policy objectives and the intensity of policy instruments. We determine that in con‐junction with public opinion feedback, the CEPI conducts targeted inspections and focuses more on pollutant governance, which has high severity and can be addressed quickly. The CEPI fills the gap of normalized gover‐nance with a campaign-style governance approach. Regarding the intensity of policy measures, the CEPI pri‐marily uses economic incentive policy instruments, supplemented by command-and-control and public guid‐ance approaches, advancing the sustainability of regulatory effectiveness through economic, social, and politi‐cal activities. This study extends knowledge in the field of CEPI policy priorities and implementation, expand‐ing the literature related to outcomes of environmental policy in developing countries.

The role of natural resources in financial expansion:evidence from Central Asia

Central Asian States(CAS)have diverse natural resources.This research aims to shed light on the finance–natural resource’s association in the context of CAS namely Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan in 1996–2020 using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag technique.It seeks to examine the research question,“What is the effect of natural resource wealth on the financial expansion(FE)of Central Asia?”The results demonstrated an inverted U-shaped association between financial growth and natural resource rents.It implies that natural resources are initially a“resource blessing”that later becomes a“resource curse.”Additionally,the effect of institutional quality(INQ)and human development(HD)on financial growth is examined.The results reveal that INQ and HD positively affect FE.Moreover,a bidirectional causal relationship exists between FE and INQ.Finally,all variables contribute to a long term FE.Based on these outcomes,the major policy recommendations are that the CAS authorities diversify their financial services and products and direct the proceeds from natural resource rents to effective invest-ments particularly in HD.In addition,the social and political infrastructures in CAS must be restructured to achieve a high-quality institutional environment,which is necessary to increase the role of the private sector.

Temporal and spatial variation of cloud cover in arid regions of Central Asia in the last 40 years

Water resources are one of the key factors restricting the development of arid areas,and cloud water resources is an important part of water resources.The arid region of central Asia is the core region of the current national green silk road construction,and is the largest arid region in the world.Based on cloud cover data of ECMWF,the current study analyzed temporal and spatial characteristics of cloud properties in arid regions of Central Asia between 1980 and 2019.Our findings show that:(1)From the point of view of spatial distribution,total cloudiness in arid regions of Central Asia was low in the south and high in the north.The distribution of high cloud frequency and medium cloud frequency was higher in the south and lower in the north,while low cloud frequency distribution was low in the south and high in the north.(2)In terms of time,the variation of cloud cover and cloud type frequency had obvious seasonal characteristics.From winter to spring,cloud cover increased,and the change of cloud type frequency increased.From spring to summer,cloud cover continued to increase and the change of cloud type frequency increased further.Cloud cover began to decrease from summer to autumn,and the change of cloud type frequency also decreased.(3)Generally,average total cloud cover decreased in most of central Asia,and high and medium cloud cover increased while low cloud cover decreased.This study provides a reference for the rational development of cloud resources in the region.

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

Status, Transition, and Impact of the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration’s Trade Policy with China

China is Korea’s main trade partner in East Asia and one of its key economic and trade partners worldwide.The two countries have complementary industrial structure and a long history of trade exchanges.However,against the backdrop of a return to global trade protectionism and the politicization of international affairs with Yoon Suk-yeol coming to power,South Korea has undertaken a strong trade shift toward the United States(US),triggering a change in the pattern of economic cooperation in East Asia and challenging the regional trade structure.A review of the trade policy agenda of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration toward the US and China,along with a comparative review of Korea’s foreign trade stance under Moon Jae-in,allows for an analysis of the turnaround and characteristics of Yoon’s trade policy toward China during his tenure.The implications for global trade governance and regional security are further analyzed with an aim of finding a Nash equilibrium in trade cooperation among East Asian countries.

Analysis on exploitation status,potential and strategy of groundwater resources in the five countries of Central Asia

As an important part of water resources of the five countries of Central Asia,groundwater resources give critical supports to the regional economic development.Accompanied by rapid economic development,the demand of groundwater is increasing.As a result,the governments are paying more attention to groundwater resource development and utilization.However,there are noticeable issues and contradictions in water resource exploration in these countries.To be more specific,these countries lack the studies in development potential and conception planning,thus influencing the sustainable groundwater development.This paper mainly discusses groundwater development problems in the five countries of Central Asia,and briefly introduces volumes and distribution of transboundary groundwater.In addition,it analyzes the current exploitation status of groundwater and studies the potential in utilizing the resource.Most importantly,it proposes creative ways to address groundwater development issues:To make best of the resource,international cooperation is required.

The Central Asian Regional Security Complex Revisited:Understanding the Implications of the US Retreat From Afghanistan

On February 29,2020,President Donald Trump announced the United States signed a peace agreement with the Taliban,signifying the United States‟intention of leaving Afghanistan in the near future.Though the global pandemic has altered US withdrawal plans,the question still remains:What will become of the Central Asian regional security complex following America‟s exit?Buffered by the presence of the United States since 2001,the Central Asian republics now once again find themselves at a crossroads to either rely on individual defense services or to develop increased military cooperation with interested states.Recognizing Central Asia‟s history of collaboration among its regional and near-regional countries,I argue that the Central Asian Republics of Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan will seek to develop stronger security ties with neighboring regional security complexes(RSCs),namely the South Asian,Russian,and Chinese RSCs.With decreased American influence,each of the states in these RSCs is rushing to fill the void of influence in order to capitalize on Central Asia‟s geostrategic position in Eurasia as well as secure itself from the threat of non-state actors still prevalent in the region.I further argue that the states in the Central Asian RSC additionally seek these same benefits and security,but receive them to a much lesser extent than their more powerful regional neighbors.Understanding how the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact Central Asian RSC relations can provide insight into how great power vacuums are filled both by great powers and regional powers alike.

Assessing Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Water Storage Changes in the Mountainous Areas of Central Asia Based on GRACE

The mountainous areas of Central Asia provide substantial water resources, and studying change in water storage and the impacts of precipitation and snow cover in the mountain ranges of Central Asia is of the greatest importance for understanding regional water shortages and the main factors. Data from the GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, precipitation products and snow-covered area data were used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes and the effects of precipitation and snow cover from April 2002 to December 2013. The results were computed for each mountain ranges, and the following conclusions were drawn. The water storage in the mountainous areas of Central Asia as a whole increases in summer and winter, whereas it decreases in autumn. The water storage is affected by precipitation to some extent and some areas exhibit hysteresis. The area of positive water storage changes moves from west to east over the course of the year. The water storage declined during the period 2002–2004. It then returned to a higher level in 2005–2006 and featured lower levels in 2007–2009 Subsequently, the water storage increased gradually from 2010 to 2013. The Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountain subzones examined in this study display similar tendencies, and the trends observed in the Karakorum Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains are also similar. However, the Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountains were influenced by precipitation to a greater degree than the latter two ranges. The water storage in Qilian Mountains showed a pronounced increasing trend, and this range is the most strongly affected by precipitation. Based on an analysis of all investigated subzones, precipitation has the greatest influence on total water storage relative to the snow covered area in some areas of Central Asia. The results obtained from this study will be of value for scientists studying the mechanisms that influence changes in water storage in Central Asia.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of ecosystem services in Central Asia

Land use/land cover(LULC)change and climate change are two major factors affecting the provision of ecosystem services which are closely related to human well-being.However,a clear understanding of the relationships between these two factors and ecosystem services in Central Asia is still lacking.This study aimed to comprehensively assess ecosystem services in Central Asia and analyze how they are impacted by changes in LULC and climate.The spatiotemporal patterns of three ecosystem services during the period of 2000-2015,namely the net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,and soil retention,were quantified and mapped by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model,Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model,and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE).Scenarios were used to determine the relative importance and combined effect of LULC change and climate change on ecosystem services.Then,the relationships between climate factors(precipitation and temperature)and ecosystem services,as well as between LULC change and ecosystem services,were further discussed.The results showed that the high values of ecosystem services appeared in the southeast of Central Asia.Among the six biomes(alpine forest region(AFR),alpine meadow region(AMR),typical steppe region(TSR),desert steppe region(DSR),desert region(DR),and lake region(LR)),the values of ecosystem services followed the order of AFR>AMR>TSR>DSR>DR>LR.In addition,the values of ecosystem services fluctuated during the period of 2000-2015,with the most significant decreases observed in the southeast mountainous area and northwest of Central Asia.LULC change had a greater impact on the NPP,while climate change had a stronger influence on the water yield and soil retention.The combined LULC change and climate change exhibited a significant synergistic effect on ecosystem services in most of Central Asia.Moreover,ecosystem services were more strongly and positively correlated with precipitation than with temperature.The greening of desert areas and forest land expansion could improve ecosystem services,but unreasonable development of cropland and urbanization have had an adverse impact on ecosystem services.According to the results,ecological stability in Central Asia can be achieved through the natural vegetation protection,reasonable urbanization,and ecological agriculture development.

Precipitation isotopes in the Tianshan Mountains as a key to water cycle in arid central Asia

The Tianshan Mountains is a wet island in arid central Asia, and precipitation amount across the mountains is much larger than that in the surrounding low-lying areas. To investigate the regional water cycle in arid central Asia, stable isotope composition in precipitation has received increased attention during the past decades. This paper reviewed current knowledge of observed and simulated stable isotope ratios in precipitation across the Tianshan Mountains. The temperature effect of stable isotopes in precipitation has been widely accepted in arid central Asia and can be applied to paleoclimate reconstruction using ice cores. The seasonality of precipitation isotopically enriched in summer months and depleted in winter months is usually attributed to westerly-dominated moisture, but different trajectory paths to the northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains can still be modelled. The proportional contribution and its uncertainty of surface evaporation and transpiration to local precipitation can be estimated using the isotope approach, and transpiration plays a dominant role in recycled moisture for oasis sites. The impact of below-cloud evaporation on precipitation stable isotopes on the southern slope is usually larger than that on the northern slope.

Influence of the Asian-Pacific Oscillation on Spring Precipitation over Central Eastern China

The linkage between the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） and the precipitation over central eastern China in spring is preliminarily addressed by use of the observed data. Results show that they correlate very well, with the positive （negative） phase of APO tending to increase （decrease） the precipitation over central eastern China. Such a relationship can be explained by the atmospheric circulation changes over Asia and the North Pacific in association with the anomalous APO. A positive phase of APO, characterized by a positive anomaly over Asia and a negative anomaly over the North Pacific in the upper-tropospheric temperature, corresponds to decreased low-level geopotential height （H） and increased high-level H over Asia, and these effects are concurrent with increased low-level H and decreased high-level H over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere are introduced in East Asia, and the low-level southerly wind is strengthened over central eastern China. These changes provide advantageous conditions for enhanced precipitation over central eastern China. The situation is reversed in the negative phase of APO, leading to reduced precipitation in this region.

Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia

Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the Chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE dataset in representing extreme precipitation,in terms of the extreme precipitation threshold value,occurrence number,probability of detection,and extremal dependence index during the cool(October to April)and warm(May to September)seasons in Central Asia during 1961–90.The distribution of extreme precipitation is characterized by large extreme precipitation threshold values and high occurrence numbers over the mountainous areas.The APHRODITE dataset is highly correlated with the gauge-observation precipitation data and can reproduce the spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation threshold value and total occurrence number.However,APHRODITE generally underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold values,while it overestimates the total numbers of extreme precipitation events,particularly over the mountainous areas.These biases can be attributed to the overestimation of light rainfall and the underestimation of heavy rainfall induced by the rainfall distribution–based interpolation.Such deficits are more evident for the warm season than the cool season,and thus the biases are more pronounced in the warm season than in the cool season.The probability of detection and extremal dependence index reveal that APHRODITE has a good capability of detecting extreme precipitation,particularly in the cool season.

Black Carbon Size in Snow of Chinese Altai Mountain in Central Asia

Black carbon(BC)in snow plays an important role to accelerate snow melting.However,current studies mostly focused on BC concentrations,few on their size distributions in snow which affected BC’s effect on albedo changes.Here we presented refractory BC(rBC)concentrations and size distributions in snow collected from Chinese Altai Mountains in Central Asia from November 2016 to April 2017.The results revealed that the average rBC concentrations were 5.77 and2.82 ng g-1for the surface snow and sub-surface snow,which were relatively higher in the melting season(April)than that in winter(November-January).The mass median volume-equivalent diameter of rBC size in surface snow was approximately at 120-150 nm,which was typically smaller than that in the atmosphere(about 200 nm for urban atmosphere).However,there existed no specific mass median volume-equivalent diameter of BC size for sub-surface snow in winter.While during the melting season,the median mass size of rBC in sub-surface snow was similar to that in surface snow.Backward trajectories indicated that anthropogenic sourced BC dominated rBC in snow(70%-85%).This study will promote our understanding on BC size distributions in snow,and highlight the possible impact of BC size on climate effect.

The PMIP3 Simulated Climate Changes over Arid Central Asia during the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.