Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here,we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)reanalysis dataset.Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs)concentrated at heights of 900-1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 2300 LST(LST=UTC+8 hours)but are strongest at 0200 LST,with composite wind velocities>14 m s^(-1).Synoptic-system-related LLJs(SLLJs)occur most frequently at 0800 LST but are strongest at 1100LST,with composite wind velocities>12 m s^(-1).Both BLJs and SLLJs are characterized by a southwesterly wind direction,although the wind direction of SLLJs is more westerly,and northeasterly SLLJs occur more frequently than northeasterly BLJs.When Wuhan is south of the mei-yu front,the westward extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies,and the low-pressure system in the eastern Tibetan Plateau strengthens,favoring the formation of LLJs,which are closely related to precipitation.The wind speeds on rainstorm days are greater than those on LLJ days.Our analysis of four typical heavy precipitation events shows the presence of LLJs at the center of the precipitation and on its southern side before the onset of heavy precipitation.BLJs were shown to develop earlier than SLLJs.

Living environment shaped residents’willingness to pay for ecosystem services in Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis,China

Profound understanding on the diversity of local residents’willingness to pay(WTP)for ecosystem services(ESs)may aid evaluation of policy impacts by uncovering trade-offs and synergies for achieving sustainable environmental resource management.However,the reasons for the spatial preference heterogeneity of WTP are still unclear.In this study,an extensive survey with 4,580 residents in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis(YRMRM),central China,was carried out to investigate the public’s WTP to maintain and improve ESs.We identified key influencing factors and explored how they shaped the preference heterogeneity in WTP by random forest model and surface fitting method.Our results showed that 81.4% of residents reported WTP for ESs greater than zero.Water supply,waste treatment,food supply and raw material supply were the preferred ESs for residents.Living environment factors(i.e.,extent of farmland,water and forest near the residence)were found as the key drivers of WTP.Proximity to farmland,water and forests resulted in high WTP values for a series of specific ESs.The reasons for the heterogeneity of WTP are(1)the difference in proximity to farmland,water and forest(i.e.,the contributor to ESs),(2)the divergence of local residents’preferences for ESs.This study disclosed the heterogeneity and causes of public preferences in YRMRM,which could help policy and decision makers to develop eco-compensation initiatives towards conservative and sustainable use of the environmental resources.

Organic Phosphorus in Shallow Lake Sediments in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Area in China

Thirteen sediment core samples(0-10 cm) were taken from the seven lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to determine the contents and distributions of organic phosphorus(P) fractions in the sediments of the shallow lakes in the area.The organic P fractions in the sediments were in the order of moderately labile organic P(MLOP) > moderately resistant organic P(MROP) > highly resistant organic P(HROP) > labile organic P(LOP),with average proportional ratios of 13.2:2.8:1.3:1.0.LOP,MLOP,and MROP were significantly related to the contents of total organic carbon(TOC),water-soluble P(WSP),algal-available P(AAP),NaHCO3-extractable P(Olsen-P),total P(TP),organic P(OP),and inorganic P(IP).However,HROP was significantly related to OP and weakly correlated with TOC,WSP,AAP,Olsen-P,TP or IP.This suggested that organic P,especially LOP and MLOP in sediments,deserved even greater attention than IP in regards to lake eutrophication.In terms of organic P,sediments were more hazardous than soils in lake eutrophication.Although OP concentrations were higher in moderately polluted sediment than those in heavily polluted sediment,LOP and MLOP were higher in the heavily polluted sediment,which indicated that heavily polluted sediment was more hazardous than moderately polluted sediment in lake eutrophication.

Summertime temperature variations in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and their related circulation anomalies in the past five decades

Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） and the related circulation anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere. Our results have demonstrated that a significantly increasing trend is observed in daily minimum temperature in the past 50 years. And in some regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite scenarios are observed in circulation anomalies in lower and upper parts of the troposphere in the years when the temperatures are higher than normal, as compared to those in the years when the temperatures are lower than normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR）. Additionally, the anomalous circulation structure in vertical direction in both the high and lower temperature years are barotropic. It is found that the emergence and maintenance of the aforementioned anomalous circulations are related to three kinds of wave train teleconnection patterns. Further more, influences of the long wave surface radiation on the air temperature are stronger in the nighttime than that in the daytime. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have negative relationships with the sensible heat flux but positive relationships with the latent heat flux. To some extent, the anomalous dynamic heating （cooling） caused by the vertical thermal advection as well as the diabatic heating （cooling） caused by diabatic processes can explain the formation of the high （low） temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in boreal summer.

The Background Features and Formation of Chemical Elements of Groundwater in the Region of the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The paper deals with the background features, formation and distribution of the chemical el-ements K, Na, Ca, Mg, Si, Fe, Mn, Cr, Ni,V, Co, Ti, Mo, Cu, Pb, Zn, As, Hg, Cd, Be, Li, Sr, B,F, Cl, Br and I in the groundwater in the region of the middle and lower reaches of the YangtzeRiver and their relations to the composition of the water-bearing media, properties of the overly-ing rocks and soils, redox environment, and groundwater flow condition, mineralization and pHof groundwater.

Basement Characteristics and Crustal Evolution of the Copper-Gold Metallogenic Belt in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River:Some Isotope Constraints

Studies of the Pb, Sr and Nd isotopic composition of Mesozoic intrusive rocks indicate that the basement of the copper-gold metallogenic belt of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has “two-layer structure” and partly has “multi-layered structure”, and is inhomogeneous and shows the distinct feature of E-W provincialism. The calculated model lead ages (t1) are mostly greater than 2600 Ma, and the model neodymium ages (TDM) vary from 953 to 2276 Ma and concentrate in two time intervals: 1800–2000 Ma and 1200–1600 Ma. It is concluded that the basement of the MBYR is composed of the Late Archaeozoic to Middle Proterozoic metamorphic series and that the crust was initiated in the Archaean and continued to grow in the Early and Middle Proterozoic, and the proportion of new crust formed by mantle differentiation during the Late Proterozoic is low.

The SIA method for spatial analysis of precipitation in the upper-middle reaches of the Yangtze River

Using geographic information system (GIS) techniques and the newest seasonal and annual average precipitation data of 679 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000, the multiple regressions equations of the precipitation and topographical variables are established to extract the effect of topography on the annual and seasonal precipitation in the upper-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Then, this paper uses a successive interpolation approach (SIA), which combines GIS techniques with the multiple regressions, to improve the accuracy of the spatial interpolation of annual and seasonal rainfall. The results are very satisfactory in the case of seasonal rainfall, with the relative error of 6.86%, the absolute error of 13.07 mm, the average coefficient of variation of 0.070, and the correlation coefficient of 0.9675; in the case of annual precipitation, with the relative error of 7.34%, the absolute error of 72.1 mm, the average coefficient of variation of 0.092, and the correlation coefficient of 0.9605. The analyses of annual mean precipitation show that the SIA calculation of 3-5 steps considerably improves the interpolation accuracy, decreasing the absolute error from 211.0 mm to 62.4 mm, the relative error from 20.74% to 5.97%, the coefficient of variation from 0.2312 to 0.0761, and increasing the correlation coefficient from 0.5467 to 0.9619. The SIA iterative results after 50 steps identically converge to the observed precipitation.

Three-dimensional P-wave Velocity Structure Modelling of the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt: Crustal Architecture and Metallogenic Implications

In this study,we compiled and analyzed 69310 P-wave travel-time data from 6639 earthquake events.These events(M≥2.0)occurred from 1980 s to June 2019 and were recorded at 319 seismic stations(Chinese Earthquake Networks Center)in the study area.We adopted the double-difference seismic tomographic method(tomo DD)to invert the 3-D P-wave velocity structure and constrain the crust-upper mantle architecture of the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt(MLYB).A 1-D initial model extracted from wide-angle seismic profiles was used in the seismic tomography,which greatly reduced the inversion residual.Our results indicate that reliable velocity structure of th e uppermost mantle can be obtained when Pn is involved in the tomography.Our results show that:(1)the pattern of the uppermost mantle velocity structure corresponds well with the geological partitioning:a nearly E-W-trending low-velocity zone is present beneath the Dabie Orogen,in contrast to the mainly NE-trending low-velocity anomalies beneath the Jiangnan Orogen.They suggest the presence of thickened lower crust beneath the orogens in the study area.In contrast,the Yangtze and Cathaysia blocks are characterized by relatively high-velocity anomalies;(2)both the ultra-high-pressure(UHP)metamorphic rocks in the Dabie Orogen and the low-pressure metamorphic rocks in the Zhangbaling dome are characterized by high-velocity anomalies.The upper crust in the Dabie Orogen is characterized by a low-velocity belt,sandwiched between two high velocity zones in a horizontal direction,with discontinuous low-velocity layers in the middle crust.The keel of the Dabie Orogen is mainly preserved beneath its northern section.We infer that the lower crustal delamination may have mainly occurred in the southern Dabie Orogen,which caused the mantle upwelling responsible for the formation of the granitic magmas emplaced in the middle crust as the low-velocity layers observed there.Continuous deep-level compression likely squeezed the granitic magma upward to intrude the upper crustal UHP metamorphic rocks,forming the'sandwich'velocity structure there;(3)high-velocity updoming is widespread in the crust-mantle transition zone beneath the MLYB.From the Anqing-Guichi ore field northeastward to the Luzong,Tongling,Ningwu and Ningzhen orefields,high-velocity anomalies in the crust-mantle transition zone increase rapidly in size and are widely distributed.The updoming also exists in the crust-mantle transition zone beneath the Jiurui and Edongnan orefields,but the high-velocity anomalies are mainly stellate distributed.The updoming high-velocity zone beneath the MLYB generally extends from the crust-mantle transition zone to the middle crust,different from the velocity structure in the upper crust.The upper crust beneath the Early Cretaceous extension-related Luzong and Ningwu volcanic basins is characterized by high velocity zones,in contrast to the low velocity anomalies beneath the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous compression-related Tongling ore field.The MLYB may have undergone a compressive-to-extensional transition during the Yanshanian(Jurassic-Cretaceous)period,during which extensive magmatism occurred.The near mantle-crustal boundary updoming was likely caused by asthenospheric underplating at the base of the lower crust.The magmas may have ascended through major crustal faults,undergoing AFC(assimilation and fractional crystallization)processes,became emplaced in the fault-bounded basins or Paleozoic sequences,eventually forming the many Cu-Fe polymetallic deposits there.

Assessment and exploitation of the waterfront resources in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Waterfront resources are important and special kind of natural resources in the marginal area between land and wat er. The Yangtze River, the longest river in China, is not only rich in waterfront resources, but also has favorable development conditions with gr eat potentiality. Aided by large-scale underwater topographic map, the maj or factors of the waterfront resources in the middle and lower reache s of the Yangtze River, such as the stability, the water depth and the natural conditions for port construction, are assessed in this pap er respectively on the basis of the overall investigations. The result s show that: (1) the waterfront resources are abundant in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but lack of perfectly combined high grade waterfront; (2) there exists an obvious regional difference in the natural quality of the waterfront along the Yangtze; (3) the fore-bank water depth and waterfront stability are the main natural fa ctors related to the waterfront quality in the middle and lower reach es of the Yangtze River; (4) the waterfronts along the Yangtze are mainl y used for port, warehouse and industrial purposes; and (5) the waterfronts near important cities are highly used, especially the high-quality waterfronts. In addition, some suggestions for the development and utilization of the waterfron t resources are presented in this paper.

The Background of Regional Lead Isotopic Compositions and Its Application in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River and Neighbouring Areas

The paper systematically deals with the background of regional isotopic compo-sitions in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River and neighbouring areas. It isshown that the lead isotopic compositions of different geological formations and units are con-trolled by the primary mantle heterogeneity, dynamic process of crust-mantle interchange,abundances of uraninm, thorium and lead of various layers of the earth and timing. Studies onthe background of regional isotopic compositions may offer significant information forgeochemical regionalization, tracing of sources of ore-forming materials, and regionalprognosis of ore deposits.

Relationship between the Late Spring NAO and Summer Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.

The Sustainable Utilization of Lake Resources in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

Based on geographical and hydrological characteristics of lakes in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, this paper analyzes the factors restricting the sustainable utilization of lake resources, including the conflict among agriculture water conservancy, and fishery, lake water pollution and eutrophication, lake siltation and swamping. The countermeasures and suggestions, such as improving the strategic status of lake harnessing, strengthening integrated management of lakes and their watershed, strengthening researches on lake environment and lake resources, are proposed to practice the sustainable utilization of lake resources.

Study on the extremely cold winter of 1670 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in the winter of 1670 were extracted from Chinese historical documents. By these records, the winter temperature anomalies （compared to the mean of 1961-1990） recorded at seven meteorological stations and the regional mean winter temperature were estimated. The results show that： （1） There was an average of about 30 snow-cover days over the MLRYR region in 1670, ranging from 11-20 days in Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang to 5140 days in eastern Hunan Province. The snow-cover days averaged about 40 days in Anqing and Nan- cheng, and ranged from 30 to 40 days in Quzhou, Jingdezhen, and Nanchang; and （2） the regional mean winter temperature in 1670 was estimated to be approximately 4.0 ℃ lower than that of 1961-1990. The maximum negative anomaly of 5.6℃ occurred in Nanchang and the minimum anomaly of-2.8 ℃ was detected in Quzhou. Both of these were lower than that of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period of 1951-2010. This research could not only provide a method to es- timate historical climate extremes, but also provide a background to understand the recent instrumentally climate extremes.

Research and Application of Rainstorm Disaster Risk Assessment along the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

We explored and studied rainstorm disaster impact grade. Firstly,we selected average precipitation,precipitation intensity,coverage and duration during rainstorm process,and economic losses,the number of deaths and total casualties in rainstorm disaster situation as the pre-assessment indexes of rainstorm process impact grade along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. Then,normalized and dimensionless processing of each index was conducted. By using gray correlation method,we established rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster impact grade. At last,we conducted regression analysis of relevancy degree between rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster situation grade,and established a linear relationship between the two,thereby getting a rainstorm disaster pre-assessment method. On this basis,using rainstorm hazard factors in independent sample,we carried out pre-assessment test of disaster impact grade. The results show that this pre-assessment method is quick and easy,and the effect is better.

Analysis of Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River in the Summer of 2000-2007

Based upon the summer (June-August) precipitation data from 30 stations in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in China, the spatial and temporal distribution of summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin was analyzed. As was shown in the results, the distribution of summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was mainly composed of four types: northern type (2005 and 2007), southern type (2001 and 2003), intermediate type (2000, 2004 and 2006) and integral type (2002). According to the correlation analysis of summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation in East Asia, the precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin and high-low level circulation anomalies were significantly related. In other words,with the increase of the meridional degree of circulation at mid-high latitudes in the middle and upper troposphere as well as anomaly by south of subtropical high at low latitudes,the center or ridge line remained steady in the south of 30° N,thus the precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin was obviously on the high side. The study could provide better guidance for the diagnosis and forecasting of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin in the future.

Key issues in the strategic environmental assessment of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

The middle reaches of the Yangtze River were the key areas of central China emphasized in many strategic plans.It was also an important ecological and fragile area,because there are many wetlands,lakes,rivers and soil erosion area.And it linked the ecological fragile upper reaches of the Yangtze River with the most developed Yangtze River Delta in China.It is urgent to figure out the key industries,key areas and key ecological and environmental problems for the strategic environmental assessment of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.The important regions consisted of the economic key region,the planning key region,the ecological key region,and the fragile ecological region.The key industries consisted of the ones contributed to economic growth,or affecting the environment,or preferred by the local government.Besides,the ecological and environmental problems involved the water environment,the atmosphere environment,and the ecological environment.The key regions were identified through word frequency statistics of many plans by ROST Word Parser.And it was spatially overlaid by ArcGIS9.2.The key industries were calculated based on the economic statistics data,the environmental pollution census and the word frequency statistics.Based on SCI-EXPANDED,CPCI-S,CCR-EXPANDED,IC database and Chinese CNKI periodical database,the ecological and environmental problems of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were analyzed by Citespace software according to the keywords and abstract of every paper.The results show that the important regions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River concentrated in the central urban region,along the river and lake,surrounding mountains,and the wetland.The equipment manufacturing,chemical industry,mining industry,energy supply industry,food industry,textile and garment industry were the key industries need to be focused on.The urgent ecological and environmental problems in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were the water environment pollution,water ecosystem,heavy metal pollution,soil and wetlands destruction,organic pollution and biodiversity decrease issues..

Diagnosing anomalous characteristics of atmospheric water cycle structure during seasonal-scale drought events:A case study in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

Anomalous characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle structure are highly significant to the mechanisms of seasonal-scale meteorological droughts.They also play an important role in the identification of indicative predictors of droughts.To better understand the causes of seasonal meteorological droughts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR),characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle structure at different drought stages were determined using standardized anomalies.The results showed that the total column water vapor(TCWV)was anomalously low during drought occurrence periods.In contrast,there were no anomalous signals at the drought persistence and recovery stages in the MLRYR.Moreover,there was no significant temporal correlation between the TCWV anomaly and seasonal-scale drought index(the 3-month standardized precipitation index(SPI_(3))).During drought events,water vapor that mainly originated from the Bay of Bengal was transported southwest of the MLRYR.Meanwhile,the anomalous signal of water vapor transport was negative at the drought appearance stage.At the drought persistence stage,the negative anomalous signal was the most significant.Water vapor flux divergence in the MLRYR showed significant positive anomalous signals during drought events,and the signal intensity shifted from an increasing to a decreasing trend at different drought stages.In addition,a significant positive correlation existed between the anomaly of water vapor flux divergence and regional SPI_(3).Overall,water vapor flux divergence is more predictive of droughts in the MLRYR.

Spatiotemporal mismatch of land use functions and land use efficiencies and their influencing factors:A case study in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,China

Identification of the spatial mismatch between land use functions(LUFs)and land use efficiencies(LUEs)is essential to regional land use policies.However,previous studies about LUF-LUE mismatch and its driving factors have been insufficient.In this study,we explored the spatiotemporal mismatch of LUFs and LUEs and their influencing factors from 2000 to 2018 in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River(MRYR).Specifically,we used Spearman correlation analysis to reveal the trade-off relationship between LUFs and LUEs and determine the direction of the influencing factors on the LUF-LUE mismatch,adopted spatial mismatch analysis to measure the imbalance between LUFs and LUEs,and used the geographical detector model to analyze the factors influencing this spatial mismatch.The results showed that production function(PDF),living function(LVF),ecological function(ELF),agricultural production efficiency(APE),urban construction efficiency(UCE),and ecological services efficiency(ESE)all displayed significant spatial heterogeneity.The high trade-off areas were widely distributed and long-lasting in agricultural space and urban space,while gradually decreasing in ecological space.Wuhan and Changsha showed high spatial mismatch coefficients in urban space,but low spatial mismatch coefficients in agricultural space.Hunan generally presented high spatial mismatch coefficients in ecological space.Furthermore,the interaction of the proportion of cultivated area and transportation accessibility exacerbated the mismatch in agricultural space.The interaction effects of capital investment and technology innovation with other factors have the most intense impact on the mismatch in urban space.The internal factor for cultivated area interacts with other external factors to drastically affect ecological spatial mismatch.

Industrial carbon emissions and influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

This paper calculates the industrial carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration over the period 2006-2013. An empirical analysis is conducted to find out the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, using a spatial Durbin panel model. The results show that cities with larger industrial carbon emissions often enjoy low annual growth rates, while the cities with smaller ones enjoy higher annual growth rate; There exists a comparatively strong positive correlation in space in per capita carbon emission; urbanization, and total population. GDP per capita and international trade are the main influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions; There are spatial spillover effects on international trade and urbanization of neighboring cities, which have a significant impact on local industrial carbon emissions.