Variations of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Extraordinary hot extreme in summer 2022 over the Yangtze River basin modulated by the La Nina condition under global warming

A widespread and prolonged hot extreme hit the Yangtze River basin in summer 2022,with 300 sites established new temperature records and nearly 96%stations endured more than 40 hot days.From the perspective of the combination effect of the global warming and La Nina condition,potential mechanisms of the hot extreme were investigated.Such a record-breaking hot extreme was caused by an extremely strong and westward-shifted western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).The global warming effect contributed primarily to the abnormal hot days in the Yangtze River basin,coupled with the modulation of the La Nina condition.The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern under La Nina condition favored more convection activities over the western Pacific,encouraging an enhanced and westward-extended WPSH.In addition,an observation-based attribution analysis indicates that anthropogenic warming may increase the probability of such extensively persistent hot extremeby1.8 times.

The Relationship Between June Precipitation over Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and Spring Soil Moisture over the East Asian Monsoon Region

Using the US Climate Prediction Center （CPC） soil moisture dataset and the observed precipitation over China together with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind and air temperature, the relationship between June precipitation over mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin （MLR-YRB） and spring soil moisture over the East Asian monsoon region was explored, with the signal of the ENSO effect on precipitation removed. A significant positive correlation was found between the mean June precipitation and the preceding soil moisture over the MRL-YRB. The possible response mechanism for this relationship was also investigated. It is found that when the soil over the MRL-YRB is wetter （drier） than normal in April and May, the air temperature in the lower troposphere over this region in May is lower （higher） than normal, and this temperature effect leads to a decrease （increase） in the temperature contrast between the land and the sea. Generally, a decrease （increase） in the land-sea temperature contrast leads to weaker （stronger） East Asian summer monsoon in June. Southerly （northerly） wind anomalies at 850 hPa then show up in the south of the Yangtze River basin while northerly （southerly） wind anomalies dominate in the north. These anomalies lead to the convergence （divergence） of wind and water vapor and hence gives rise to more （less） precipitation in June over the MLR-YRB.

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have sig- nificant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index （DWAAI） and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin （YRB-ML） to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alterna- tion （DWAA） events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Nifia or within the subsequent 8 months after La Nina, which implies that La Nina events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB. This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.

A comparative study of the atmospheric circulations associated with rainy-season floods between the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins

Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins for the 21 years(1990–2010),using the daily rain gauge measurements taken in the 756 stations throughout China and the NCEP/reanalysis data for the rainyseasons(June–July)from 1990 to 2010.The major differences in the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins are as follows:for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin,the South Asia high center is located further east than normal,the blocking high over the Urals and the Sea of Okhotsk maintains,and the Meiyu front is situated near 30°N whereas for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin,the South Asia high center is further west than normal,the atmospheric circulations over the mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are of meridional distribution,and the Meiyu front is situated near 33°N.In addition,there are distinct differences in water vapor sources and associated transports between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins.The water vapor is transported by southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin whereas by southeast monsoons from the eastern and southern seas off China and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin.

Role of Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Compound Drought and Heat Event over the Middle of the Yangtze River Basin during Midsummer 2018

In late July 2018, a compound drought and heat event(CDHE) occurred in the middle of the Yangtze River basin(MYRB) and caused great damage to the national economy. The CDHE over the MYRB has been documented to be linked with intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) from different regions. However, specific roles of different ISOs on the development of the CDHE cannot be separated in the observational analysis. By using partial lateral forcing experiments driven by ISO in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, we found that the midlatitude ISO generated by a westerly wave train in the upper troposphere played an important role in this heatwave and drought event in the northern MYRB, causing a regional average temperature rise of 1.65°C and intensification of drought over23.49% of the MYRB area. On the other hand, the ISO associated with the Pacific-Japan(PJ)-like teleconnection wave train in the lower troposphere induced a more pronounced impact on the event, causing an average temperature rise of 2.44°C, intensifying drought over 29.62% of the MYRB area. The MYRB was mainly affected by northward warm advection driven by the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the early period of the CDHE development. In the late period, because of the establishment of a deep positive geopotential height field through the troposphere leading to intensive local subsidence, there was a remarkable temperature rise and moisture decrease in the MYRB. The results will facilitate a better understanding of the occurrence of CDHE and provide empirical precursory signals for subseasonal forecast of CDHE.

Excretion of manure-borne estrogens and androgens and their potential risk estimation in the Yangtze River Basin

The Yangtze River is the longest river in China, and the river basin spans one fifth of the area of the whole country. Based on statistical data, the excretion of manure-borne steroid hormones, including steroid estrogens（SEs） and steroid androgens（SAs）, in 10 provinces of China within the region has been estimated. The potential environmental and ecological risk of manure-borne steroid estrogens to the surface water in this region was also assessed. The manure-borne SE and SA excretions in the 10 provinces and municipalities vary in the order： Sichuan 〉 Hunan 〉 Hubei 〉 Yunnan 〉 Jiangsu 〉 Anhui 〉 Jiangxi 〉Chongqing 〉 Qinghai 〉 Shanghai. The highest increase of manure-borne SEs（1434.3 kg）and SAs（408.5 kg） was found in Hunan and Hubei provinces, respectively, and the total excretion in 2013 was 65% more than 15 years earlier in these two provinces. However, the emissions in Anhui and Shanghai decreased in this 15 year period of time. Swine urine,chicken feces, cattle urine, and laying hen feces were considered the dominant sources of manure-borne E1, βE2, αE2, and SAs, respectively. Although Jiangsu province did not have the largest excretion of manure-borne SEs, it had the highest level of predicted17β-estradiol equivalency（EEQs） value of 16.65 ng/L in surface water because of the limited surface water resources. According to the lowest observable effect level of 10 ng/L for17β-estradiol, the manure-borne SEs in Jiangsu province might potentially pose ecological risk to its wild aquatic organisms.

A Study of the Teleconnections in the Asian-Pacific Monsoon Region

The interactions among the Asian-Pacific monsoon subsystems have significant impacts on the climatic regimes in the monsoon region and even the whole world. Based on the domestic and foreign related research, an analysis is made of four different teleconnection modes found in the Asian-Pacific monsoon region, which reveal clearly the interactions among the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）, the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM）. The results show that： （1） In the period of the Asian monsoon onset, the date of ISM onset is two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Basin, and a teleconnection mode is set up from the southwestern India via the Bay of Bengal （BOB） to the Yangtze River Basin and southern Japan, i.e., the ＂southern＂ teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon. （2） In the Asian monsoon culmination period, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is influenced significantly by the WNPSM through their teleconnection relationship, and is negatively related to the WNPSM rainfall, that is, when the WNPSM is weaker than normal, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is more than normal. （3） In contrast to the rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin, the precipitation of northern China （from the 4th pentad of July to the 3rd pentad of August） is positively related to the WNPSM. When the WNPSM is stronger than normal, the position of the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） becomes farther northeast than normal, the anomalous northeastward water vapor transport along the southwestern flank of WPSH is converged over northern China, providing adequate moisture for more rainfalls than normal there. （4） The summer rainfall in northern China has also a positive correlation with the ISM. During the peak period of ISM, a teleconnection pattern is formed from Northwest India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern China, i.e., the ＂northern＂ teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon. The above four kinds of teleconnections reflect the links among the Asian monsoon subsystems of ISM, EASM, and WNPSM during the northward advancing march of the Asian summer monsoons.