Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.

Evaluation of dynamic characteristics of silt in Yellow River Flood Field after freeze-thaw cycles

Frothing is a main disease of highways in Yellow River Flood Field, due to the loss of dynamic strength of roadbed soils under the couple effects of temperature, salt, and vehicle traffic load. This is strongly linked to the dynamic characteristics of silt in this region. To analyze these couple effects on the dynamic characteristics of silt, a series of tests(i.e., freeze-thaw cycling tests, vibration triaxial tests and ultrasonic wave velocity tests) were conducted and two kinds of silt(i.e., salt-free and 3%-salt silt) were designed. The results indicate that the dynamic shear strength and dynamic modulus decrease with increasing freeze-thaw cycles, while the damping ratio simultaneously increases. Furthermore, compared to salt-free silt, the decrement of dynamic shear strength and dynamic modulus of silt with 3% salt is more significant, but the damping ratio of 3%-salt silt is larger. In ultrasonic wave velocity tests, ultrasonic wave velocity of frozen soil specimens decreases as the number of freeze-thaw cycles increases. Based on the results of ultrasonic wave velocity tests, a preliminary model is proposed to evaluate damage of silt through field measurement ultrasonic data. The study could provide a theoretical basis for the treatment of silty soil highway.

Genetic progress in stem lodging resistance of the dominant wheat cultivars adapted to Yellow-Huai River Valleys Winter Wheat Zone in China since 1964

Analysis of genetic progress for lodging-related traits provides important information for further improvement of lodging resistance.Forty winter wheat cultivars widely grown in the Yellow-Huai River Valleys Winter Wheat Zone(YHWZ)of China during the period of 1964–2015 were evaluated for several lodging-related traits in three cropping seasons.Plant height,height at center of gravity,length of the basal second internode,and lodging index decreased significantly in this period,and the average annual genetic gains for these traits were–0.50 cm or–0.62%,–0.27 cm or–0.60%,–0.06 cm or–0.63%,and–0.01 or–0.94%,respectively.Different from other traits,stem strength showed a significant increasing trend with the breeding period,and the annual genetic gains were 0.03 N or 0.05%.Correlation analysis showed that lodging index was positively correlated with plant height,height at center of gravity,and length of the basal second internode,but negatively correlated with stem strength.Meanwhile,significantly positive correlations were observed between plant height,height at center of gravity,and length of the basal first and second internodes.By comparison with the wild types,dwarfing genes had significant effects on all lodging-related traits studied except for length of the basal first internode and stem strength.Principle component analysis demonstrated that plant height and stem strength were the most important factors influencing lodging resistance.Clustering analysis based on the first two principle components further indicated the targets of wheat lodging-resistant breeding have changed from reducing plant height to strengthening stem strength over the breeding periods.This study indicates that the increase of stem strength is vital to improve lodging resistance in this region under the high-yielding condition when plant height is in an optimal range.

New Challenges and Opportunities for Flood Control in the Huai River: Addressing a Changing River-Lake Relationship

This paper addresses the change of the river-lake relationship in the Huai River and its causes due to environmental change and human activities. A preliminary analysis is made from three aspects: (1) the natural geographical change particularly captured by the Yellow River, (2) water conservancy project construction, and (3) socioeconomic development in the Huai River Basin. Key problems of changes in this river-lake relationship and the Huai River flood control are tackled, involving flood control and disaster alleviation ability of the Basin, engineering and non-engineering measurements applied to flood control and disaster mitigation, and water governance for adaptive management. Research shows that the Huai River is a rather complex one due to its complex geography with a hybrid wet and dry climate zoon, and higher population density. With the alternation of the river-lake relationship and socioeconomic development in the region, new problems keep arising, imposing new requirements on its sustainable water management. Thus, understanding the Huai River is a long and gradually improving process. Its future planning should keep absorbing new achievements of science and technology development, employing new technologies and methods, and gradually deepening our understanding of its fundamental principles. Water governance and adaptive water management will be new challenges and opportunities for the Basin in its river system change and flood control.

The characteristics of dike-break flood in different scenarios of the lower Yellow River based on numerical simulations

The lower Yellow River still faces the threat of flood due to the unusual precipitation caused by global environmental change, river channel sedimentation, hidden danger in the dike and unfavorable river regime of ＂hanging river＂. According to the characteristics of the dike-break flood of the Yellow River, this paper has simulated, in six different scenarios, the dike-break flood routing by inputting the terrain data, typical historical flood data and land use data of study area to two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The results show that： firstly, the routing process of flood will occupy other rivers on the way and return to the rivers after reaching the lower reaches; secondly, in the same river reach, flood inundating area of north band is bigger than that at corresponding location of south bank under the same historical flood; thirdly, it is different in the degree of flood inundation in different regions due to different geographical locations in flood plain; fourthly, the area of mainstream where flood is deep and flow velocity is quick is relatively smaller, but the area of non-mainstream, where flood is shallow and flow velocity is slow, is relatively big; and finally, the possible influenced area of the dike-break flood is 141,948 km^2.

Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster：spatial－temporal distribution prediction and early－warning

By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.

Natural Disasters of the Lower Reaches of Yellow River during the Longshan Period——The Natural Background of Dayu's Flood Control

It is very important to study the archaeological culture and origin of civilization in ancient China.The changes of the channels in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in the prehistoric period are part of the natural environmental background of the development of the ancient civilization in that area to be explored.This paper presents a series of legends,indications,scientific evidence,and macroscopic geographical background information of the evolution in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during the Longshan period.At first the river flowed from Northern Henan and Hebei to southwestern Shandong Province and Northern Anhui–Jiangsu provinces,and the mainstream of the Yellow River changed from the southeast to return to the north and flowed into the Bohai Sea in the late Longshan Period.During this period,floods were frequent.Various ethnic groups in the northern China plains suffered natural disasters and made great migrations which also contributed to the ethnic exchanges and integration.The people of the Central Plains made more dynamic adjustments in the relationship between mankind and the land by primitively escaping from the water and self–defensively controlling the rivers then to maintaining the local ecological environment by large–scale flood control measures,which promoted the settlement of Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,the urban cultural development,and social evolution.Based on these events,the culture symbol of Dayu's Flood Control could be formed.

Flood Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Technology for Medium and Small Rivers in the Yellow River Basin Induced by Heavy Rain

The Yellow River Basin is one of the important sand-producing and sediment-transporting areas in China,and one of the three most important sand-producing areas in the world.The amount of sand and dust days in the“Three Norths”(Dongbei,Xibei,and Huabei)area has increased,and regional sand and dust storms have occurred frequently.There are generally more serious hidden danger points of debris flow geological disasters in small and medium-sized river basins.The technical achievements of flood risk forecasting and early warning for medium and small rivers in the Yellow River Basin based on rainstorm-induced floods are important technical supports for flood forecasting and early warning for medium and small rivers.Based on this,a case study was carried out on the problems such as the weak forecasting and early warning ability of flood disasters induced by heavy rain and the low accuracy of flood disaster loss assessment in the flood disasters of medium and small rivers,for the reference of relevant personnel.

Changes in sediment discharge in a sediment-rich region of the Yellow River from 1955 to 2010: implications for further soil erosion control

The well-documented decrease in the discharge of sediment into the Yellow River has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The present study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of sediment yield based on data from 46 hydrological stations in the sediment-rich region of the Yellow River from 1955 to 2010. The results showed that since 1970 sediment yield in the region has clearly decreased at different rates in the 45 sub-areas controlled by hydrological stations. The decrease in sediment yield was closely related to the intensity and extent of soil erosion control measures and rainstorms that occurred in different periods and sub-areas. The average sediment delivery modulus（SDM） in the study area decreased from 7,767.4 t/（km^2·a） in 1951–1969 to 980.5 t/（km^2·a） in 2000–2010. Our study suggested that 65.5% of the study area with the SDM below 1,000 t/（km^2·a） is still necessary to control soil deterioration caused by erosion, and soil erosion control measures should be further strengthened in the areas with the SDM above 1,000 t/（km^2·a）.

Numerical modeling of flow in continuous bends from Daliushu to Shapotou in Yellow River

The upper reach of the Yellow River from Daliushu to Shapotou consists of five bends and has complex topography. A two-dimensional Re-Normalisation Group （RNG） k-ε model was developed to simulate the flow in the reach. In order to take the circulation currents in the bends into account, the momentum equations were improved by adding an additional source term. Comparison of the numerical simulation with field measurements indicates that the improved two-dimensional depth-averaged RNG k-e model can improve the accuracy of the numerical simulation. A rapid adaptive algorithm was constructed, which can automatically adjust Manning＇s roughness coefficient in different parts of the study river reach. As a result, not only can the trial computation time be significantly shortened, but the accuracy of the numerical simulation can also be greatly improved. Comparison of the simulated and measured water surface slopes for four typical cases shows that the longitudinal and transverse slopes of the water surface increase with the average velocity upstream. In addition, comparison was made between the positions of the talweg and the main streamline, which coincide for most of the study river reach. However, deviations between the positions of the talweg and the main streamline were found at the junction of two bends, at the position where the river width suddenly decreases or increases.

The Effects of Natural Capital Protection on Pastoralist's Livelihood and Management Implication in the Source Region of the Yellow River, China

The interaction among different livelihood capitals is a key to generate a deeper understanding of the livelihood sustainability.In this paper,we use net income per capita(economic capital),meat and milk production per capita(physical capital),and areas of fenced pasture,livestock shelter,grassland rodent control and planted grassland(physical capital) as proxy indicators of livelihood promotion,livelihood provision,and livelihood protection respectively.By developing a correlation model between pastoralists' livelihood protection and improvement,we found that(1) there is a statistically significant correlation between the pastoralists' livelihood protection and promotion;(2) based on the maximum effect of pastoralists' livelihood promotion and provision,there is a benchmark in the effect of the intervention intensity of livelihood capital(grassland resource protection) on livelihood improvement;(3) on basis of two indicators,i.e.net income per capita and meat production per capita,the reasonable scales of fenced pasture,livestock shelter and planted grassland are less than 843,860 and 46 thousand hectares(hm2) per year respectively.With the marginal effect of livelihood protection,moderately decreased areas of fenced pasture and planted grassland,and increased area of livestock shelter is a critical to ensure pastoralist's livelihood sustainability.

Properties of Alkali-activated Yellow River Sediment-slag Composite Material

In order to consume the Yellow River sediment as much as possible and improve the longterm stability of the Yellow River, Yellow River sediment was utilized as the main raw material to produce a composite material. Ca(OH)_2 was used as alkali-activator to activate the active SiO_2 and Al_2O_3 compositions in Yellow River sediment. 10 wt% slag was added into the mixture to further improve the strength of the composites. The effect of activity rate of the Yellow River sediment and dosage of Ca(OH) _2 on the compressive strength of the Yellow River sediment-slag composite material at different curing ages was researched. XRD, SEM/EDS, light microscope and FTIR were used to further explore the products and the microstructure of the composite material. Results showed that the active ratio of sediment had a great influence on the compressive strength of specimen. In addition, the compressive strength of specimen increased with the increase of Ca(OH)_2dosage and curing age. When the dosage of Ca(OH)_2 was more than 5 wt% as well as the curing age reached 90 days, the compressive strength of the composite material could meet the engineering requirement. In the alkali-activated process, the main product was hydrated calcium silicate(C-S-H) gel, which filled up the gaps among the sediment particles and decreased the porosity of the specimen. Moreover, the CaCO_3 produced by the carbonization of the C-S-H gel and excess Ca(OH)_2 also played a role on the strength.

Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources in the Huai River Basin

Rainfall and air temperature data from six meteorological stations above the Bengbu Sluice and hydrological and water resources evaluation data from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to 2008 are used to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors on the amount of water resources in the Basin. There was a general trend of rise in its average annual air temperature, with the highest increase of 0.289℃/10a recorded at Bengbu in Anhui Province. Rising rainfall was mainly observed in the western part of the study area, while rainfall actually declined in the eastern part, i.e. the middle reaches of the Huai River. The Average rainfall in the study area was in a vaguely declining trend. In other words, the rainfall in the Basin is still much affected by natural fluctuations. On the whole, there was a trend of gradual decrease in the quantity of the Basin＇s water resources for the period under study. Water resources quantity is found to fall with decreasing rainfall and rising air temperature. Regression analysis is used to establish a mathematical model between water resources quantity and climatic factors （i.e. air temperature and rainfall） in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources in the Basin. Moreover, various scenarios are set to quantitatively analyze the response of water resources to climate change. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in rainfall have a much bigger impact on its water resources quantity than changes in its air temperature.

Flood and Waterlogging Disaster Damage Evaluation in Middle-Lower Yangtze River by 3S technology

The evaluation method, model and process for the flood and waterlogging disaster condition by GIS,RS and GPS technology and the method for setting up disaster condition database, dyke database and historical disaster damage database are presented. An index of flood damage degree(FDD) used to evaluate the relative degree of disaster loss and divide flood and waterlogging area is suggested. The value of flood damage degree can be calculated as follows :taking the various disaster losses of sample area in a base year as standard value and computing the ratios of various disaster loss values in different areas and years to the standard flood disaster loss values, then summing up the weighted ratios. The computed results are the value of flood damage degree in the every year. The macroscopic flood disaster distribution can be evaluated by the values of flood loss degree.

Studies on the Evolutionary Laws and Maintaining Mechanism of Renewability of the Yellow River's Water Resources

The Yellow River has a vast catchment area and historically it is the mother river of the Chinese nation. Now it serves as one of the main theatres for the on-going national campaign to develop China's western hinterland.……

基于D-S证据理论改进AHP-熵权的流域洪涝灾害评估研究

考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性以及承灾体易损性,选取指标构建小清河流域洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的改进AHP-熵权法计算指标权重,求取洪涝灾害风险指数,运用自然断点分级法确定洪涝灾害风险等级,分析小清河流域洪涝灾害风险空间分布情况。结果表明:小清河流域洪涝灾害风险总体上表现出南低北高的趋势,其中高风险区和较高风险区分别占流域面积的8.7%和14.3%,主要分布在小清河干流以及主要支流两岸。所得评估结果同“利奇马”台风发生期间实际洪灾风险分布情况一致,对比证明基于D-S证据理论的改进AHP-熵权法优于AHP和熵权法,可为小清河流域防洪减灾决策提供依据。

Sediment delivery ratio and its uncertainties on flood event scale:Quantification for the Lower Yellow River

Sediment delivery ratio(SDR)for fluvial rivers was formulated with sediment rating curve.The observed data of SDR on flood event scale of the Lower Yellow River(LYR)were adopted to examine the formulation and to calibrate the model parameters.A regression formula of SDR was then established and its 95%prediction interval was accordingly quantified to represent its overall uncertainties.Three types of factors including diversity of the incoming flow conditions,river self-regulation processes,and human activities were ascribed to the uncertainties.The following were shown:(1)With the incoming sediment coefficient(ISC)being a variable,it was not necessary to adopt the incoming flow discharge as the second variable in the formulation of SDR;and(2)ISC=0.003 and therefore SDR=2 might be a threshold for distinguishing the characteristics of sediment transport within the LYR.These findings would highlight sediment transport characteristics on the scale of flood event and contribute to uncertainty based analysis of water volume required for sediment transport and channel maintenance of the LYR.

Efficiency of sediment transport by flood and its control in the Lower Yellow River

This paper presents the characteristics of sediment transport by flood in the Lower Yellow River with the reach from Huayuankou to Gaocun, which is regarded as a typical braided pattern. The Artificial Neural Network Model on Water Use for Sediment Transport (WUST) by flood was established based on the measured data from 1980 to 1998. Consequently, simulations of controlling process of sediment transport by flood were made in terms of the control theory under different scenarios. According to the situation of sediment transport by flood in the Lower Yellow River, Open-Loop control system and feedback control system were adopted in system design. In the Open-Loop control system, numerical simulations were made to reveal the relationship between average discharge of flood and the WUST with varying sediment concentrations. The results demonstrate that sediment concentration has significant influence on the controlling process of flood flow to WUST. It is practical and efficient to control WUST if sediment concentration is less than 20 kg/m3. In the feedback control system, controlling processes of sediment concentration and flood discharge for sediment transport were simulated respectively under given conditions, and it was found that sediment transport process could be controlled completely by sediment concentration and discharge at the inlet of the reach from Huayuankou to Gaocun. Using the same method, controlling processes of sediment transport by flood in other reaches in the Lower Yellow River were also simulated. For the case of sediment concentration being 20 kg/m3, the optimized controlling discharge ranges from 2390 to 2900 m3/s in the lower reach of Huayuankou. This study is also of significance to flood control and flushing sediment in the Lower Yellow River with proper operation modes of Xiaolangdi Reservoir.

Response of flood discharging capacity to the deterioration of the lower Yellow River

Based on the clarifications of the deterioration characteristics of the lower Yellow River (LYR), the influence of river deterioration on flood discharging capacity is studied through theoretical derivation and analysis of field data. This study indicates that response of flood discharging capacity to river deterioration is nonlinear. Sediment depositions in the main channel cause the reductions of dominant discharge and thus the increase of initial flood stage. Reductions in the channel width result in the increases of the rising rate of flood stage and the decrease of flood discharging capacity.