Using GPS observations of horizontal movement from 2001 to 2003 and the cross-fault mobile short-levelling data of 1988～2003, and with the aid of the improved negative dislocation model and the time-varying curve of ...Using GPS observations of horizontal movement from 2001 to 2003 and the cross-fault mobile short-levelling data of 1988～2003, and with the aid of the improved negative dislocation model and the time-varying curve of strain intensity ratio of fault deformation, the regional tectonic deformation background and medium- and short-term precursors related to the preparation of the Minle-Shandan earthquakes of M S6.1 and M S5.8 on October 25, 2003 are investigated. The results reveal that, under the background of the wide-range deformation adjustment, short-term relaxation and recovery caused by the Kunlun Mountains earthquake of M S8.1, the hypocenters of the earthquakes are located on the north edge of the shear stress enhancement zone between the compressional locked segments of block boundary fault, a place which may represent an accelerated strain accumulation. An obvious anomaly of strain intensity ratio appeared in short-levelling measurements crossing over the fault at the Shihuiyaokou site, the closest to the epicenters, 3 months before the occurrence of the earthquakes. In addition, the variation in number of anomalies from 10-odd days to months before the earthquakes in the entire monitoring area and the anomaly concentration and local enhancement relative to near source in the 3 months before the earthquakes are regarded to be precursors to the two events.展开更多
Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such ...Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.展开更多
文摘Using GPS observations of horizontal movement from 2001 to 2003 and the cross-fault mobile short-levelling data of 1988～2003, and with the aid of the improved negative dislocation model and the time-varying curve of strain intensity ratio of fault deformation, the regional tectonic deformation background and medium- and short-term precursors related to the preparation of the Minle-Shandan earthquakes of M S6.1 and M S5.8 on October 25, 2003 are investigated. The results reveal that, under the background of the wide-range deformation adjustment, short-term relaxation and recovery caused by the Kunlun Mountains earthquake of M S8.1, the hypocenters of the earthquakes are located on the north edge of the shear stress enhancement zone between the compressional locked segments of block boundary fault, a place which may represent an accelerated strain accumulation. An obvious anomaly of strain intensity ratio appeared in short-levelling measurements crossing over the fault at the Shihuiyaokou site, the closest to the epicenters, 3 months before the occurrence of the earthquakes. In addition, the variation in number of anomalies from 10-odd days to months before the earthquakes in the entire monitoring area and the anomaly concentration and local enhancement relative to near source in the 3 months before the earthquakes are regarded to be precursors to the two events.
文摘Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.
