Education quality has undoubtedly become an important local and international benchmark for education,and an institute’s ranking is assessed based on the quality of education,research projects,theses,and dissertation...Education quality has undoubtedly become an important local and international benchmark for education,and an institute’s ranking is assessed based on the quality of education,research projects,theses,and dissertations,which has always been controversial.Hence,this research paper is influenced by the institutes ranking all over the world.The data of institutes are obtained through Google Scholar(GS),as input to investigate the United Kingdom’s Research Excellence Framework(UK-REF)process.For this purpose,the current research used a Bespoke Program to evaluate the institutes’ranking based on their source.The bespoke program requires changes to improve the results by addressing these methodological issues:Firstly,Redundant profiles,which increased their citation and rank to produce false results.Secondly,the exclusion of theses and dissertation documents to retrieve the actual publications to count for citations.Thirdly,the elimination of falsely owned articles from scholars’profiles.To accomplish this task,the experimental design referred to collecting data from 120 UK-REF institutes and GS for the present year to enhance its correlation analysis in this new evaluation.The data extracted from GS is processed into structured data,and afterward,it is utilized to generate statistical computations of citations’analysis that contribute to the ranking based on their citations.The research promoted the predictive approach of correlational research.Furthermore,experimental evaluation reported encouraging results in comparison to the previous modi-fication made by the proposed taxonomy.This paper discussed the limitations of the current evaluation and suggested the potential paths to improve the research impact algorithm.展开更多
Background:The U.S.Air Force physical fitness assessment(PFA)is used to determine the overall fitness of their personnel.It is currently unknown to what extent the PFA scores of Reserve Officers’Training Corps(ROTC)c...Background:The U.S.Air Force physical fitness assessment(PFA)is used to determine the overall fitness of their personnel.It is currently unknown to what extent the PFA scores of Reserve Officers’Training Corps(ROTC)cadets are affected by mandatory physical training.The purpose of this investigation was to longitudinally examine the PFAs of ROTC cadets over a four-year period,evaluate the results across class ranks,and evaluate the sensitivity of the classification of the tests.Methods:Air Force ROTC cadets performed the PFAs(abdominal circumference,1-min pushups,1-min sit-ups,and a 1.5-mile run)in both the spring(n=26)and fall(n=22)semesters.PFAs were compiled over a four-year period(Spring 2014–Fall 2017)and were performed in accordance with Air Force Instruction 36–2905.A oneway repeated measures ANOVA was performed separately for the fall and spring groups for each dependent variable across the 4 years.Additionally,a one-way between groups ANOVA was performed for each dependent variable during the time point(fall 2015;n=46)with the most recorded cadets for each class rank.Results:Longitudinal assessments revealed a main effect of time(P=0.010)on abdominal circumference;cadets had a smaller abdominal circumference in their freshman year than in their senior year.A main effect of time(P=0.006)was also observed on sit-up quantity;cadets performed more sit-ups in their junior year than in their freshman year.Examining between class ranks during the same year(between-subjects ANOVA)revealed a main effect of class rank on sit-up quantity(P=0.003);the freshmen completed fewer repetitions than the sophomores(P=0.018)and the juniors did(P=0.001).Conclusions:The results indicated that only the sit-up component showed differences between class ranks.These findings suggest that the Air Force PFA may not be sensitive enough to detect changes in physical fitness or distinguish between class ranks regarding physical performance,even after years of training.This limitation may be in part due to the limited duration of training incorporated by the ROTC program(2 h per week),which provided a maintenance effect rather than improvement in physical performance.We recommend that more attention be directed to the efficacy of physical training,the sensitivity of measures included in the PFA,or both.展开更多
The presence of pesticide residues in pears is a serious health concern. This study presents the results from a 2-year investigation (2013-2014) that used gas chromatography, GS/MS and UPLC/MS-MS to measure the leve...The presence of pesticide residues in pears is a serious health concern. This study presents the results from a 2-year investigation (2013-2014) that used gas chromatography, GS/MS and UPLC/MS-MS to measure the levels of 104 pesti- cides in 310 pear samples. In 93.2% of the samples, 43 pesticides were detected, of which the maximum residue levels (MRLs) were exceeded in 2.6% of the samples. Multiple residues (two to eight compounds) were present in 69.7% of the samples; one sample contained nine pesticides and one sample contained 10. Only 6.8% of the samples did not contain residues. To assess the health risks, the pesticide residue data have been combined with daily pear consumption data for children and adult populations. A deterministic model was used to assess the chronic and acute exposures based on the Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR) method. A potential acute risk was demonstrated for children in the case of bifenthrin, which was found to be present at 105.36% of the acute reference dose (ARfD) value. The long- term exposure of the Chinese consumer to pesticide residues through the consumption of raw pears was far below the acceptable daily intake (ADI) criterion. Additionally, the matrix ranking scheme was used to classify risk subgroups of pesticides and pear samples. In general, 95.5% of samples were deemed to be safe and nine pesticides were classified as being of a relatively high risk. The findings indicated that the occurrence of pesticide residues in pears should not be considered a serious public health problem. Nevertheless, a more detailed study is required for vulnerable consumer groups, especially children. Continuous monitoring of pesticides in pears and tighter regulation of pesticide residue standards are recommended.展开更多
Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound m...Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path, and the Ditlevsen bound method is used to calculate the system failure probability. The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, which evaluates the structural component safety rank. The ultimate equation of the tubular cross- section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis. The influence of effect coefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated, and basic results are obtained. A general program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed, and verified by the numerical examples.展开更多
Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations.The fuzzy(neighborhood)meth...Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations.The fuzzy(neighborhood)method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem.The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts.We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score,i.e.,the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score(SCRPS),and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts.The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)and the fuzzy method.A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency,which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS.The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained.The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.展开更多
Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus (P) loss and improve...Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus (P) loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region. In this study, a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme (PRS) was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS. In this new scheme, six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method. The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors, and, the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme. By the new scheme, thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as "low", "medium" or "high" potential for P loss into the runoff. The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields. The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area. In the study area, controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss. Based on the results, it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of P. Compared with P surplus by field measurements, the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields, and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.展开更多
A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring t...A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring the differences between them,which might decrease the credibility level of reliability evaluation and result in data submergence.To solve the problem,a revised approach was derived to calculate groups of prior data's quantitative credibility,used for weighted data fusion.Then inheritance factor was introduced to build a mixed beta distribution to illustrate the innovation of new products.However,in many cases,inheritance factor was determined by Chi-square test that could not give out exact result with respect to rare failures.To make the model more precise,Barnard's exact test was suggested being used to calculate the inheritance factor.A numerical example is given to demonstrate that the modified method is successful and rational,while the classical method is too conservative and the traditional Bayesian method is too risky.展开更多
A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are compa...A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are comparable. In this paper, 20 contaminated sites are used to assess the United States’ Preliminary Assessment (PA) system, Sweden’s Methods for Inventories of Contaminated Sites (MICS) and New Zealand’s Risk Screening System (RSS) methods. The results were compared with each other and with Canada’s National Classification System for Contaminated Sites (NCSCS) as well as preliminary quantitative risk assessment (PQRA) results. The objectives were to determine if the systems yield similar recommendations regarding further actions, and to assess if there are acceptable correlations between different methods. The study concludes that PA, MICS and NCSCS methods can achieve similar conclusions, although there is a certain degree of inconsistency that is present, RSS can distinguish the very high and very low risk sites and, acceptable correlations exists among the methods except for PA and PQRA.展开更多
The environmental impacts are commonly quantified in the EIA studies by rating, ranking and scaling. The National EIA Guidelines, 1993, Nepal provides a guideline to score the impacts in terms of magnitude, extent, an...The environmental impacts are commonly quantified in the EIA studies by rating, ranking and scaling. The National EIA Guidelines, 1993, Nepal provides a guideline to score the impacts in terms of magnitude, extent, and duration. This step is commonly known as impact prediction in the EIA process. The predicted scores are multiplied by the weightage value of the resource;likely to be affected. The application of the weightage transforms the predicted values of the impacts into their “significance”—a concept used in the environmental decision making. In other words the significance value entails assignment of relative judgment values to the impacts. The impacts, thus, can ranked based on their significance. The impact ranking is more useful in evaluating the socio-economic impacts. Unlike air, water and noise quality, which can be assessed against established standards;the socio-economic impacts do not have standard scale and are difficult to rank. Importance weighting of socio-economic impacts are commonly determined by the consensus obtained from the interaction with the local people, agencies, NGOs and experts. The impact ranking in the EIA process is unavoidable, firstly to prioritize the urgent environmental issues and design mitigation measures accordingly and also provide coherent linkages among the issues, and plan monitoring and auditing linkage with the proposed mitigation measures. Furthermore, it also provide strong basis of decision making, and thus facilitate the decision makers. The process of impact prediction, determination of significance and ranking were applied in the EIA of Indrwati-3 Hydroelectric Project, which is one of the successful cases of EIA in Nepal. The authors believe that the impacts predicted and quantified through this method are being focussed to more on the local concerns, since it seeks an active involvement of the local people who are likely to be affected.展开更多
Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objec...Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.展开更多
The Danjiangkou reservoir was selected to provide the source water for the middle routes of the South to North Water Transfer Project, which has provoked many environmental concerns. To date, investigations of water c...The Danjiangkou reservoir was selected to provide the source water for the middle routes of the South to North Water Transfer Project, which has provoked many environmental concerns. To date, investigations of water contamination of the source water of the Danjiangkou reservoir with organic micro-pollutants have been limited. This study was conducted to identify and rank organic contaminants that pose risks in the Danjiangkou reservoir. To this end, the Chemical Hazard Evaluation and Manage- ment Strategies (CHEMS-1) approach was adapted to integrate the deconvolution technology of qualitative identifying contaminants for site-specific environmental matrices. The samples were screened for the presence of 1093 contaminants using deconvolution technologies and the hazard values of the identified contaminants were calculated using the adapted CHEMS-1 approach accord- ing to their hazardous properties and occurrence in source water. The results showed that 46 contaminants from 1093 targets were present in Danjiangkou water, 23 of which appeared at frequencies higher than 50%, and 15 of which were identified as priorities. Over half (53%) of the high- ranked contaminants were polycyclic aromatic hydrocar- bons (PAHs), with chrysene ranked highest on the list. Health risk assessment of the top-ranked PAHs was conducted and revealed that cancer risks of PAHs detected in the source water of Danjiangkou to different populations ranged from 10-7 to 104, indicating a low cancer risk to consumers. The results of this study indicated that the adapted CHEMS-1 approach was feasible for site-specific screening of organic contaminants to identify and rank potential priority pollutants.展开更多
Recent image aesthetic assessment methods have achieved remarkable progress due to the emergence of deep convolutional neural networks(CNNs).However,these methods focus primarily on predicting generally perceived pref...Recent image aesthetic assessment methods have achieved remarkable progress due to the emergence of deep convolutional neural networks(CNNs).However,these methods focus primarily on predicting generally perceived preference of an image,making them usually have limited practicability,since each user may have completely different preferences for the same image.To address this problem,this paper presents a novel approach for predicting personalized image aesthetics that fit an individual user’s personal taste.We achieve this in a coarse to fine manner,by joint regression and learning from pairwise rankings.Specifically,we first collect a small subset of personal images from a user and invite him/her to rank the preference of some randomly sampled image pairs.We then search for the K-nearest neighbors of the personal images within a large-scale dataset labeled with average human aesthetic scores,and use these images as well as the associated scores to train a generic aesthetic assessment model by CNN-based regression.Next,we fine-tune the generic model to accommodate the personal preference by training over the rankings with a pairwise hinge loss.Experiments demonstrate that our method can effectively learn personalized image aesthetic preferences,clearly outperforming state-of-the-art methods.Moreover,we show that the learned personalized image aesthetic benefits a wide variety of applications.展开更多
文摘Education quality has undoubtedly become an important local and international benchmark for education,and an institute’s ranking is assessed based on the quality of education,research projects,theses,and dissertations,which has always been controversial.Hence,this research paper is influenced by the institutes ranking all over the world.The data of institutes are obtained through Google Scholar(GS),as input to investigate the United Kingdom’s Research Excellence Framework(UK-REF)process.For this purpose,the current research used a Bespoke Program to evaluate the institutes’ranking based on their source.The bespoke program requires changes to improve the results by addressing these methodological issues:Firstly,Redundant profiles,which increased their citation and rank to produce false results.Secondly,the exclusion of theses and dissertation documents to retrieve the actual publications to count for citations.Thirdly,the elimination of falsely owned articles from scholars’profiles.To accomplish this task,the experimental design referred to collecting data from 120 UK-REF institutes and GS for the present year to enhance its correlation analysis in this new evaluation.The data extracted from GS is processed into structured data,and afterward,it is utilized to generate statistical computations of citations’analysis that contribute to the ranking based on their citations.The research promoted the predictive approach of correlational research.Furthermore,experimental evaluation reported encouraging results in comparison to the previous modi-fication made by the proposed taxonomy.This paper discussed the limitations of the current evaluation and suggested the potential paths to improve the research impact algorithm.
文摘Background:The U.S.Air Force physical fitness assessment(PFA)is used to determine the overall fitness of their personnel.It is currently unknown to what extent the PFA scores of Reserve Officers’Training Corps(ROTC)cadets are affected by mandatory physical training.The purpose of this investigation was to longitudinally examine the PFAs of ROTC cadets over a four-year period,evaluate the results across class ranks,and evaluate the sensitivity of the classification of the tests.Methods:Air Force ROTC cadets performed the PFAs(abdominal circumference,1-min pushups,1-min sit-ups,and a 1.5-mile run)in both the spring(n=26)and fall(n=22)semesters.PFAs were compiled over a four-year period(Spring 2014–Fall 2017)and were performed in accordance with Air Force Instruction 36–2905.A oneway repeated measures ANOVA was performed separately for the fall and spring groups for each dependent variable across the 4 years.Additionally,a one-way between groups ANOVA was performed for each dependent variable during the time point(fall 2015;n=46)with the most recorded cadets for each class rank.Results:Longitudinal assessments revealed a main effect of time(P=0.010)on abdominal circumference;cadets had a smaller abdominal circumference in their freshman year than in their senior year.A main effect of time(P=0.006)was also observed on sit-up quantity;cadets performed more sit-ups in their junior year than in their freshman year.Examining between class ranks during the same year(between-subjects ANOVA)revealed a main effect of class rank on sit-up quantity(P=0.003);the freshmen completed fewer repetitions than the sophomores(P=0.018)and the juniors did(P=0.001).Conclusions:The results indicated that only the sit-up component showed differences between class ranks.These findings suggest that the Air Force PFA may not be sensitive enough to detect changes in physical fitness or distinguish between class ranks regarding physical performance,even after years of training.This limitation may be in part due to the limited duration of training incorporated by the ROTC program(2 h per week),which provided a maintenance effect rather than improvement in physical performance.We recommend that more attention be directed to the efficacy of physical training,the sensitivity of measures included in the PFA,or both.
基金financially supported by the National Program for Quality and Safety Risk Assessment of Agricultural Products of China (GJFP2014002, GJFP2015002)the Core Research Budget of the Non-Profit Governmental Research Institution of China (0032014013)
文摘The presence of pesticide residues in pears is a serious health concern. This study presents the results from a 2-year investigation (2013-2014) that used gas chromatography, GS/MS and UPLC/MS-MS to measure the levels of 104 pesti- cides in 310 pear samples. In 93.2% of the samples, 43 pesticides were detected, of which the maximum residue levels (MRLs) were exceeded in 2.6% of the samples. Multiple residues (two to eight compounds) were present in 69.7% of the samples; one sample contained nine pesticides and one sample contained 10. Only 6.8% of the samples did not contain residues. To assess the health risks, the pesticide residue data have been combined with daily pear consumption data for children and adult populations. A deterministic model was used to assess the chronic and acute exposures based on the Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR) method. A potential acute risk was demonstrated for children in the case of bifenthrin, which was found to be present at 105.36% of the acute reference dose (ARfD) value. The long- term exposure of the Chinese consumer to pesticide residues through the consumption of raw pears was far below the acceptable daily intake (ADI) criterion. Additionally, the matrix ranking scheme was used to classify risk subgroups of pesticides and pear samples. In general, 95.5% of samples were deemed to be safe and nine pesticides were classified as being of a relatively high risk. The findings indicated that the occurrence of pesticide residues in pears should not be considered a serious public health problem. Nevertheless, a more detailed study is required for vulnerable consumer groups, especially children. Continuous monitoring of pesticides in pears and tighter regulation of pesticide residue standards are recommended.
文摘Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path, and the Ditlevsen bound method is used to calculate the system failure probability. The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, which evaluates the structural component safety rank. The ultimate equation of the tubular cross- section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis. The influence of effect coefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated, and basic results are obtained. A general program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed, and verified by the numerical examples.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China(41905091)National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0604502,2017YFC1501904)
文摘Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known"double penalty"problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations.The fuzzy(neighborhood)method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem.The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts.We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score,i.e.,the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score(SCRPS),and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts.The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)and the fuzzy method.A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency,which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS.The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained.The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005CB121107)the Innovation Research Group of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2005).
文摘Guanting Reservoir, one of the drinking water supply sources of Beijing, suffers from water eutrophication. It is mainly supplied by Guishui River. Thus, to investigate the reasons of phosphorus (P) loss and improve the P management strategies in Guishui River watershed are important for the safety of drinking water in this region. In this study, a Revised Field P Ranking Scheme (PRS) was developed to reflect the field vulnerability of P loss at the field scale based on the Field PRS. In this new scheme, six factors are included, and each one was assigned a relative weight and a determination method. The affecting factors were classified into transport factors and source factors, and, the standards of environmental quality on surface water and soil erosion classification and degradation of the China were used in this scheme. By the new scheme, thirty-four fields in the Guishui River were categorized as "low", "medium" or "high" potential for P loss into the runoff. The results showed that the P loss risks of orchard and vegetable fields were higher than that of corn and soybean fields. The source factors were the main factors to affect P loss from the study area. In the study area, controlling P input and improving P usage efficiency are critical to decrease P loss. Based on the results, it was suggested that more attention should be paid on the fields of vegetable and orchard since they have extremely high usage rate of P and high soil test of P. Compared with P surplus by field measurements, the Revised Field PRS was more suitable for reflecting the characteristics of fields, and had higher potential capacity to identify critical source areas of P loss than PRS.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71371182)
文摘A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring the differences between them,which might decrease the credibility level of reliability evaluation and result in data submergence.To solve the problem,a revised approach was derived to calculate groups of prior data's quantitative credibility,used for weighted data fusion.Then inheritance factor was introduced to build a mixed beta distribution to illustrate the innovation of new products.However,in many cases,inheritance factor was determined by Chi-square test that could not give out exact result with respect to rare failures.To make the model more precise,Barnard's exact test was suggested being used to calculate the inheritance factor.A numerical example is given to demonstrate that the modified method is successful and rational,while the classical method is too conservative and the traditional Bayesian method is too risky.
文摘A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are comparable. In this paper, 20 contaminated sites are used to assess the United States’ Preliminary Assessment (PA) system, Sweden’s Methods for Inventories of Contaminated Sites (MICS) and New Zealand’s Risk Screening System (RSS) methods. The results were compared with each other and with Canada’s National Classification System for Contaminated Sites (NCSCS) as well as preliminary quantitative risk assessment (PQRA) results. The objectives were to determine if the systems yield similar recommendations regarding further actions, and to assess if there are acceptable correlations between different methods. The study concludes that PA, MICS and NCSCS methods can achieve similar conclusions, although there is a certain degree of inconsistency that is present, RSS can distinguish the very high and very low risk sites and, acceptable correlations exists among the methods except for PA and PQRA.
文摘The environmental impacts are commonly quantified in the EIA studies by rating, ranking and scaling. The National EIA Guidelines, 1993, Nepal provides a guideline to score the impacts in terms of magnitude, extent, and duration. This step is commonly known as impact prediction in the EIA process. The predicted scores are multiplied by the weightage value of the resource;likely to be affected. The application of the weightage transforms the predicted values of the impacts into their “significance”—a concept used in the environmental decision making. In other words the significance value entails assignment of relative judgment values to the impacts. The impacts, thus, can ranked based on their significance. The impact ranking is more useful in evaluating the socio-economic impacts. Unlike air, water and noise quality, which can be assessed against established standards;the socio-economic impacts do not have standard scale and are difficult to rank. Importance weighting of socio-economic impacts are commonly determined by the consensus obtained from the interaction with the local people, agencies, NGOs and experts. The impact ranking in the EIA process is unavoidable, firstly to prioritize the urgent environmental issues and design mitigation measures accordingly and also provide coherent linkages among the issues, and plan monitoring and auditing linkage with the proposed mitigation measures. Furthermore, it also provide strong basis of decision making, and thus facilitate the decision makers. The process of impact prediction, determination of significance and ranking were applied in the EIA of Indrwati-3 Hydroelectric Project, which is one of the successful cases of EIA in Nepal. The authors believe that the impacts predicted and quantified through this method are being focussed to more on the local concerns, since it seeks an active involvement of the local people who are likely to be affected.
文摘Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.
基金Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 20977102 and 21007077), the Ministry of Water Resources' Special Funds for Scientific Research on Public Causes (No. 201201032) and the Environmental Protection National Commonweal Research Project (No. 200909040).
文摘The Danjiangkou reservoir was selected to provide the source water for the middle routes of the South to North Water Transfer Project, which has provoked many environmental concerns. To date, investigations of water contamination of the source water of the Danjiangkou reservoir with organic micro-pollutants have been limited. This study was conducted to identify and rank organic contaminants that pose risks in the Danjiangkou reservoir. To this end, the Chemical Hazard Evaluation and Manage- ment Strategies (CHEMS-1) approach was adapted to integrate the deconvolution technology of qualitative identifying contaminants for site-specific environmental matrices. The samples were screened for the presence of 1093 contaminants using deconvolution technologies and the hazard values of the identified contaminants were calculated using the adapted CHEMS-1 approach accord- ing to their hazardous properties and occurrence in source water. The results showed that 46 contaminants from 1093 targets were present in Danjiangkou water, 23 of which appeared at frequencies higher than 50%, and 15 of which were identified as priorities. Over half (53%) of the high- ranked contaminants were polycyclic aromatic hydrocar- bons (PAHs), with chrysene ranked highest on the list. Health risk assessment of the top-ranked PAHs was conducted and revealed that cancer risks of PAHs detected in the source water of Danjiangkou to different populations ranged from 10-7 to 104, indicating a low cancer risk to consumers. The results of this study indicated that the adapted CHEMS-1 approach was feasible for site-specific screening of organic contaminants to identify and rank potential priority pollutants.
基金supported partially by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFB1004903)National Natural Science Foundation of China(61802453,U1911401,U1811461)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(19lgpy216)Research Projects of Zhejiang Lab(2019KD0AB03).
文摘Recent image aesthetic assessment methods have achieved remarkable progress due to the emergence of deep convolutional neural networks(CNNs).However,these methods focus primarily on predicting generally perceived preference of an image,making them usually have limited practicability,since each user may have completely different preferences for the same image.To address this problem,this paper presents a novel approach for predicting personalized image aesthetics that fit an individual user’s personal taste.We achieve this in a coarse to fine manner,by joint regression and learning from pairwise rankings.Specifically,we first collect a small subset of personal images from a user and invite him/her to rank the preference of some randomly sampled image pairs.We then search for the K-nearest neighbors of the personal images within a large-scale dataset labeled with average human aesthetic scores,and use these images as well as the associated scores to train a generic aesthetic assessment model by CNN-based regression.Next,we fine-tune the generic model to accommodate the personal preference by training over the rankings with a pairwise hinge loss.Experiments demonstrate that our method can effectively learn personalized image aesthetic preferences,clearly outperforming state-of-the-art methods.Moreover,we show that the learned personalized image aesthetic benefits a wide variety of applications.