Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Multi-scale Cultivated Land System Resilience in Black Soil Region from 2000 to 2019:A Case Study of Liaoning Province,Northeast China

It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.

Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Cultivated Land Quality in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.

Trade-off and Synergy of Rural Functions Under County Depopulation in the Typical Black Soil Region of Northeast China

As the population continues to shrink in the black soil region of Northeast China since 2000,it is critical to master the impact of population shrinkage on rural functions to realize rural revitalization and sustainable development.In this study,we focused on the impacts of depopulation on the evolution and interrelationship of rural subfunctions.Based on the rural function indexes system,the TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)method,spatial analysis method,and mathematical statistics analysis method were used to summarize the spatial and temporal characteristics of rural function development,as well as the effect of population shrinkage in the typical black soil region of Northeast China.The results showed that depopulation varied in the extent and duration between the forested region and plain areas,which both impacted the trajectories of rural subfunctions evolution.For the economic development function and ecological conservation function,the effect of continuous slight depopulation was beneficial,while the effect of rapid depopulation was adverse,which was exactly opposite to the agricultural production function.All forms of population shrinkage were conducive to the development of the social security function.With the deepening population shrinkage,depopulation mainly promoted the collaborative development between subfunctions in this study,except the relationship between agricultural production and social security function.But effects of depopulation on the interrelationship of rural subfunctions varied between the forested region and plain areas in some cases.The results provided evidence for the cognition that population shrinkage had complicated effects on rural subfunctions.

Changes of spring wind erosion based on wind erosion climate factor in the black soil region of Northeast China

The dry and windy climate and low ground cover in spring in the black soil region of Northeast China make the soil strongly affected by wind erosion,which seriously threatens the food security and ecological security of this region.In this paper,based on the daily observation data of 124 meteorological stations in study area from 1961 to 2020,seasonal and monthly wind erosion climate factor(C)in spring(March to May)were calculated by using the method proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),the wind erosion characterization in spring were systematically analyzed based on C by various statistical analysis methods.The results showed that in the past 60 years,spring wind erosion climate factor(CSp)and monthly C of the whole region and each province(region)all showed highly significant decreasing trend,but they began to show rebounded trend in the middle or late 2000s.CSp of the study area showed a significant upward trend since 2008 with an increase of 4.59(10a)^(-1).The main contributors to this upward trend are the changes of C in March and in April.For the four provinces(regions),CSp in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia all showed rebounded since 2008,2011,2008 and 2009,respectively.The rebounded trend of CSp in eastern Inner Mongolia was the most obvious with a tendency rate of 11.27(10a)^(-1),and its mutation occurred after 1984.The rebound trend of CSp in Heilongjiang Province takes the second place,with a trend rate of 4.72(10a)^(-1),but there’s no obvious time mutation characteristics.The spatial characteristics of CSpand monthly C are similar,showing decreasing characteristics centered on the typical black soil belt of Northeast China.Compared with 1961-1990,in the period from 1991 to 2020,the proportion of high value areas(CSp>35,monthly C>10)has decreased to varying degrees,while the proportion of low value areas(CSp≤10,monthly C≤4)has increased.The trends of seasonal and monthly C in 82.2%~87.7%of the stations show significant decreases at 95%confidence level.CSp is closely related to wind speed at 2m height,temperature difference,minimum temperature and precipitation in the same period,of which the correlation between CSp and wind speed is the strongest,indicating that the main control factor for CSp in the study area is wind speed,but the impact of the change of temperature and precipitation on CSp cannot be ignored.

Study on the Method of Soil Productivity Assessment in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

The objective of this paper is to investigate a simple and practical method for soil productivity assessment in the black soil region of Northeast China. Firstly, eight kinds of physicochemical properties for each of 120 soil samples collected from 25 black soil profiles were analyzed using cluster and correlation analysis. Subsequently, parameter indices were calculated using physicochemical properties. Finally, a modified productivity index （MPI） model were developed and validated. The results showed that the suitable parameters for soil productivity assessment in black soil region of Northeast China were soil available water, soil pH, clay content, and organic matter content. Compared with original productivity index （PI） model, MPI model added clay content and organic matter content in parameters while omitted bulk density. Simulation results of original PI model and MPI model were compared using crop yield of land block where investigated soil profiles were located. MPI model was proven to perform better with a higher significant correlation with maize yield. The correlation equation between MPI and yield was： Y= 3.2002Ln（MP/）＋ 10.056, R^2 = 0.7564. The results showed that MPI model was an effective and practical method to assess soil productivity in the research area.

Effect of farmland shelterbelts on gully erosion in the black soil region of Northeast China

The black soil region of northeast China is one of the most important grain-producing areas in China. Increasingly severe gully erosion in this region has destroyed much farmland and reduced grain production. We analyzed SPOT5 imagery from 2007 and TM imagery from 2008 to describe the distributions of gullies and farmland shelterbelts in Kedong County and to assess the effect of farmland shelterbelts on gully erosion. The ima- gery revealed 2311 gullies with average density of 418.51 m km-2, indicating very serious gully erosion. With increasing slope gradient there was an inverse trend between gully density and shelterbelt density, indicating that farmland shelterbelts can prevent gully erosion. The defense effect of farmland shelterbelts against gullyerosion varied with distance： for distances 〈120 m, the defense effect was consistent and very strong; for distances of 120-240 m, a weak linear decrease was found in the defense effect; and for distances 〉240 m, the defense effect of the shelterbelts was significantly weaker. We recommend an optimal planting density of farmland shel- terbelts for the prevention of gully erosion at 1100-1300 m km-2.

Gully Erosion Regionalization of Black Soil Area in Northeastern China

Gully erosion is the frequent and main form of soil erosion in the black soil area of the northeastern China, which is one of the most important commodity grain production bases in China. It is encroaching upon the fertile farmland there. Regionalization of gully erosion can reveal the spatial distribution and regularity of the development of gully erosion. Based on the eco-geographical regional background features of the black soil area, this study combined the regionalization with influencing factors of the development of gully erosion. GIS spatial analysis, geostatistical analysis, spatial statistics, reclassification, debris polygon processing and map algebra methods were employed. As a result, the black soil area was divided into 12 subregions. The field survey data on type, length, volume and other characteristics indicators of gully erosion were used to calibrate the results. Then the features of every subregion, such as where the gully erosion is, how serious it is, and why it happens and develops, were expounded. The result is not only an essential prerequisite for gully erosion surveys and monitoring, but also an important basis for gully erosion prevention.

Using ^(137)Cs Tracer Technique to Evaluate Erosion and Deposition of Black Soil in Northeast China

Soil and water losses through erosion have been serious in the black soil region of Northeast China. Therefore, a sloping cultivated land in Songnen Plain was selected as a case study to: 1) determine the 137Cs reference inventory in the study area; 2) calculate erosion and deposition rates of black soil on different slope locations; 3) conduct a sensitivity analysis of some model parameters; and 4) compare overall outputs using four different models. Three transects were set in the field with five slope locations for each transect, including summit, shoulder-slope, back-slope, foot-slope, and toe-slope. Field measurements and model simulation were used to estimate a bomb-derived 137Cs reference inventory in the study area. Soil erosion and deposition rates were estimated using four 137Cs models and percentage of 137Cs loss/gain. The 137Cs reference value in the study area was 2 232.8 Bq m-2 with 137Cs showing a clear topographic pattern, decreasing from the summit to shoulder-slope, then increasing again at the foot-slope and reaching a maximum at the toe-slope. Predicted soil redistribution rates for different slope locations varied. Among models, the Yang Model (YANG-M) overestimated erosion loss but underestimated deposition. However, the standard mass balance model (MBM1) gave predictions similar to a mass balance model incorporating soil movement by tillage (MBM2). Sensitivity analysis of the proportion factor 7 and distribution pattern of 137Cs in the surface layer demonstrated the impact of 137Cs enrichment on calculation of the soil erosion rate. Factors influencing the redistribution of fallout 137Cs in landscape should be fully considered as calculating soil redistribution rate using 137Cs technique.

Effects of Tillage Management on Infiltration and Preferential Flow in a Black Soil, Northeast China

The impacts of no-tillage (NT) and moldboard plough (MP) managements on infiltration rate and preferential flow were characterized using a combined technique of double-ring device and dye tracer on a black soil (Mollisols) in Northeast China. The objective of this study is to evaluate how tillage practices enhance soil water infiltration and preferential flow in favor of soil erosion control in the study area. The steady infiltration rates under NT management are 1.6 and 2.1 times as high as those under MP management in the 6th and 8th years of the tillage management in place, while the infiltrated water amounts under NT management are 1.4 and 2.0 times as high as those under MP management, respectively. The depth of methylene blue penetrated into NT soil increases from 43cm in the 6th year to 57cm in the 8th year, which are 16cm and 19cm deeper than those in MP soil, respectively. The results of morphologic image show that more biological macro-pores occur in NT soil than in MP soil. These macro-pores play a key role in enhancing preferential flow in NT soil, which in turn promotes water infiltration through preferential pathways in NT soil. The results are helpful to policy-making in popularizing NT and have the implications for tillage management in regard to soil erosion control in black soil region of China.

Relationship Between Soil and Water Conservation Practices and Soil Conditions in Low Mountain and Hilly Region of Northeast China

The soil and water conservation practices of ecological restoration(ER),fish scale pit(FP),furrow and ridge tillage across the slope(FR),shrub strips(SS),and vegetation-covered ridge(VR)are characteristic of the Jixing small watershed of the low mountain and hilly region of Jilin Province,Northeast China.This study aims to elucidate the effects of soil and water conservation practices on soil conditions after the short-term implementation of practices.Soil samples were collected from five soil and water conservation sites(ER,FP,FR,SS,and VR)and two controls(BL and CT)to investigate their properties.To evaluate the influence of soil and water conservation practices on soil quality,an integrated quantitative index,soil quality index(QI),was developed to compare the soil quality under the different soil and water conservation practices.The results show that not all soil and water conservation practices can improve the soil conditions and not all soil properties,especially soil organic carbon(SOC),can be recovered under soil and water conservation practice in short-term.Moreover,the QI in the five soil and water conservation practices and two controls was in the following order:ER>VR>BL>FR>CT>SS>FP.ER exhibited a higher soil quality value on a slope scale.In the low mountain and hilly region of Northeast China,ER is a better choice than the conversion of farmlands to planted grasslands and woodlands early in the soil and water conservation program.

Using CropSyst to Simulate Spring Wheat Growth in Black Soil Zone of Northeast China

Available water and fertilizer have been the main limiting factors for yields of spring wheat, which occupies a large area of the black soil zone in northeast China; thus, the need to set up appropriate models for scenario analysis of cropping system models has been increasing. The capability of CropSyst, a cropping system simulation model, to simulate spring wheat growth of a widely grown spring cultivar, 'Longmai 19', in the black soil zone in northeast China under different water and nitrogen regimes was evaluated. Field data collected from a rotation experiment of three growing seasons (1992-1994) were used to calibrate and validate the model. The model was run for 3 years by providing initial conditions at the beginning of the rotation without reinitializing the model in later years in the rotation sequence. Crop input parameters were set based on measured data or taken from CropSyst manual. A few cultivar-specific parameters were adjusted within a reasonable range of fluctuation. The results demonstrated the robustness of CropSyst for simulating evapotranspiration, aboveground biomass, and grain yield of 'Longmai 19' spring wheat with the root mean square errors being 7%, 13% and 13% of the observed means for evapotranspiration (ET), grain yield and aboveground biomass, respectively. Although CropSyst was able to simulate spring production reasonably well, further evaluation and improvement of the model with a more detailed field database was desirable for agricultural systems in northeast China.

Dynamics of soil organic carbon following land-use change:insights from stable C-isotope analysis in black soil of Northeast China

Intensive soil tillage is a significant factor in soil organic matter decline in cultivated soils. Both cultivation abandonment and foregoing tillage have been encouraged in the past 30 years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and soil erosion. However, the dynamic processes of soil organic carbon (SOC) in areas of either continuous cultivation or abandonment remain unclear and inconsistent.Our aims were to assess and model the dynamic processes of SOC under continuous tillage and after cultivation abandonment in the black soil of Northeast China. Soil profiles were collected of cultivated or abandoned land with cultivation history of 0–100 years. An isotope mass balance equation was used to calculate the proportion of SOC derived from corn debris (C_4) and from natural vegetation (C_3) to deduce the dynamic process. Approximately 40% of SOC in the natural surface soil (0–10 cm) was eroded in the first 5 years of cultivation, increasing to about 75% within 40 years, before a slow recovery. C_4 above 30 cm soil depth increased by 4.5%–5% or 0.11–0.12 g·kg^(-1) on average per year under continuous cultivation, while it decreased by approximately 0.34% annually in the surface soil after cultivation abandonment.The increase in the percentage of C_4 was fitted to a linear equation with given intercepts in the upper 30 cm of soil in cultivated land. A significant relationship between the change of C_4 and time was found only in the surface soil after abandonment of cultivation. These results demonstrate the loss and accumulation of corn-derived SOC in surface black soil of Northeast China under continuous tillage or cultivation abandonment.

Temporal and Spatial Change of Soil Organic Matter and pH in Cultivated Land of the Songliao Plain in Northeast China during the Past 35 Years

Soil organic matter(SOM)and pH are not only an important part of soil fertility,but also a source of nutrients for plants and an energy source for the life activities of soil microorganisms(Huang,2000).Moreover,soil organic matter(SOM)has a great impact on soil properties and can improve soil fertility and buffering performance.

Soil Degradation and Food Security Coupled with Global Climate Change in Northeastern China

The northeastern China is an important commodity grain region in China,as well as a notable corn belt and major soybean producing area.It thus plays a significant role in the national food security system.However,large-scale land reclamation and non-optimum farming practices give rise to soil degradation in the region.This study analyzed the food security issues coupled with global climate change in the northeastern China during 1980–2000,which is the period of modern agriculture.The results of statistical data show that the arable land area shrank markedly in 1992,and then increased slowly,while food production generally continually increased.The stable grain yield was due to the increase of applied fertilizer and irrigated areas.Soil degradation in the northeastern China includes severe soil erosion,reduced soil nutrients,a thinner black soil layer,and deterioration of soil physical properties.The sustainable development of the northeastern China is influenced by natural-artificial binary disturbance factors which consist of meteorological conditions,climate changes,and terrain factors as well as soil physical and chemical properties.Interactions between the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in the region led to reduced accumulation of soil organic matter,which results in poor soil fertility.Human-induced factors,such as large-scale land reclamation and non-optimum farming practices,unsuitable cultivation systems,dredging,road building,illegal land occupation,and extensive use of fertilizers and pesticides,have led to increasingly severe soil erosion and destruction.Solutions to several problems of soil degradation in this region requiring urgent settlement are proposed.A need for clear and systematic recognition and recording of land use changes,land degradation,food production and climate change conditions is suggested,which would provide a reference for food security studies in the northeastern China.

Soil loss tolerance in the black soil region of Northeast China

Soil loss tolerance （/） is the maximum rate of annual soil erosion that is tolerated and still allows a high level of crop productivity to be sustained economically and indefinitely. In the black soil region of Northeast China, an empirically determined, default Tvalue of 200 （t/km2.a） is used for designing land restoration strategies for different types of soils. The ob- jective of this study was to provide a methodology to calculate a quantitative T for different black soil species. A field investigation was conducted to determine the typical soil profiles of 21 black soil species in the study area and a quantitative methodology based on a modified soil productivity index model was established to calculate the Tvalues. These values, which varied from 68 t/km2.a to 358 t/km2-a, yielded an average Tvalue of 141 t/km2.a for the 21 soil species. This is 29.5% lower than the current national standard T value. Two significant factors that influenced the T value were soil thickness and vulnerability to erosion. An acceptable reduction rate of soil productivity over a planned time period of 1% is recommended as necessary for maintaining long-term sustainable soil productivity. Compared with the cur- rently used of regional unified standard T value, the proposed method, which determines T using specific soil profile indices, has more practical implications for effective, sustainable management of soil and water conservation.

Erosion effect on the productivity of black soil in Northeast China

Continuous soil erosion has caused serious land degradation in the black soil area of Northeast China. The primary objective of this study was to determine the effects of accelerated erosion on soil productivity, as measured by soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) yields. Eight erosion levels, 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 cm, were simulated by imitating the integrated process of natural erosion and tillage activity. Each erosion level had two sub-treatments: conventional fertilization and no fertilization. Soil erosion was found to affect survival probability and to cause remarkable reductions in the Leaf Area Index (LAI), plant height, pod number, biomass, and yield. Soybean yield was exponentially decreased with the increase of soil erosion depth. Compared to erosion depth of 0 cm, erosion levels of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 cm experienced reductions in soybean yield by 28.8%, 37.8%, 43.5%, 52.6%, 53.1%, 52.9%, and 64.1% respectively when fertilized whereas the reductions at those levels were 32.6%, 42.2%, 53.0%, 54.0%, 65.8%, 69.7%, and 72.6%, respectively, when unfertilized. At the erosion depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 cm, the yield reductions per 10 cm of soil eroded when fertilized were 28.8%, 18.9%, 14.5%, 13.2%, 10.6%, 8.8%, and 9.2%, averaged 14.9%, but when unfertilized they were 32.6%, 21.1%, 17.7%, 13.5%, 13.2%, 11.6%, and 10.4%, averaged 17.1%. The results also showed that chemical fertili zers could enhance the yields of eroded soil, but could not recover the yields to the pre-erosion level. Additionally, the results indicated that the primary reason for the decrease in soybean yield with increasing erosion depth was the loss of soil organic matter, soil N and P. These results may aid in selecting effective soil erosion control strategy, forecasting land degradation, establishing soil erosion tolerance, and evaluating the economic cost of soil erosion in the black soil region in Northeast China.

Assessing soil thickness in a black soil watershed in northeast China using random forest and field observations

Soil thickness determines the soil productivity in the black soil region of northeast China,which is important for national food security.Existing information on the spatial variation of black soil thickness is inadequate.In this paper,we propose a model framework for spatial estimation of the black soil thickness at the watershed scale by integrating field observations,unmanned aerial vehicle variations of topography,and satellite variations of vegetation with the aid of random forest.We sampled 141 sample profiles over a watershed and identified the black soil thickness based on indices of the mollic epipedon.Topographic variables were derived from a digital elevation model and vegetation variables were derived from Landsat 8 imagery.Random forest was used to determine the relationship between black soil thickness and environmental variables.The resulting model explained 61%of the black soil thickness spatial variation,which was more than twice that of traditional interpolation methods(ordinary kriging,universal kriging and inverse distance weighting).Topographic variables contributed the most toward explaining the thickness,followed by vegetation indices.The black soil thickness over the watershed had a clear catenary soil pattern,with thickest black soil in the low depositional areas and thinnest at the higher elevations that drain into the low areas.The proposed model framework will improve estimates of soil thickness in the region of our study.

典型黑土区不同保护性耕作方式对玉米生长发育及产量形成的影响

实施保护性耕作对保护东北黑土和保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。为明确东北典型黑土区保护性耕作对玉米产量的影响及其关键因素,开展了连续3年大田定位试验,设常规垄作秸秆不还田(CK)、免耕秸秆全量粉碎覆盖(T1)、免耕留高茬全量秸秆覆盖(T2)、少耕秸秆全量条带覆盖(T3)共4个处理,分析了不同处理对土壤理化特性及玉米生长发育、产量及其构成因素的影响。结果表明,与CK相比,保护性耕作处理(T1、T2和T3)0~20 cm耕层土壤有机质含量呈增加趋势;保护性耕作显著提高了播种至出苗期耕层土壤含水量,T1、T2和T3处理分别提高7.8%~30.4%、9.0%~18.7%和17.3%~20.0%,但显著降低土壤温度,分别降低2.56~3.11℃、2.02~2.27℃、0.94~1.93℃;分别延迟玉米出苗时间5~7 d、4~6 d和2 d;T3处理3年平均出苗率较CK增加3.2%,T1和T2处理出苗率分别降低4.3%和4.7%;T1、T2和T3处理均降低了苗期株高整齐度和植株干物质积累,但T3处理降低幅度明显小于T1和T2处理,6叶期之后干物质积累降低幅度逐渐减小;T1和T2处理显著降低玉米产量,降幅分别为7.5%~15.6%和5.5%~12.9%,T3处理产量与CK差异不显著。结构方程模型(SEM)揭示,保护性耕作通过调节土壤含水量和温度,间接影响玉米出苗时间、出苗率、穗数和百粒重,进而影响产量,也可通过直接影响出苗质量和产量构成因素进而影响产量。在东北典型黑土区,少耕秸秆全量条带覆盖(T3)不仅有利于提高土壤有机质含量,而且还有利于平衡土壤水分和温度矛盾,缩短出苗时间、提高出苗质量、高产稳产,是该区域适宜的保护性耕作方式。

东北黑土地区稻田甲烷排放时空演变及排放潜力分析

稻田甲烷排放是农业源甲烷排放的主要来源。东北黑土地区是我国最大的粮食生产基地,农业温室气体减排是实现黑土地永续利用的关键议题之一。运用稻田甲烷排放模型(CH4MOD)核算并分析了2009—2018年东北黑土地区稻田甲烷排放的时空演变特征,结合GOSAT卫星遥感数据探究了水稻生产与区域甲烷排放的时空动态联系,进一步量化了稻田甲烷对区域甲烷排放的贡献程度及不同情景下的排放潜力。结果表明,受水稻生产面积扩张和排放强度提高的影响,东北黑土地区稻田甲烷排放总量从2009年的39.05万t增加到2018年的79.53万t。东北黑土地区区域甲烷排放在季节变化和栅格单元上表现出与稻田甲烷排放较为一致的时空动态,大规模的稻田耕作可能会增加水稻生产与区域甲烷排放直接相关的可能性。随着水稻持续扩种稳产,2018年东北黑土地区水稻生产贡献了区域甲烷排放总量的15.04%,其中黑龙江省的贡献率高达31.06%。在基准发展情景下,预计2035年东北黑土地区稻田CH_4排放量较2018年增加19.5%;在粮食供给保障情景下,维持当前稻田耕作面积,水稻生产集约化程度提高,预计其稻田CH_4排放量较2018年减少0.88%;在此基础上,采取促进秸秆还田、增施有机肥、实施节水间歇灌溉等稻田管理措施将使稻田CH_4排放量增加17.8%—63.6%。以满足膳食需求和供给保障为导向,优化水稻种植结构、控制稻田耕作面积,推动技术进步、品种改良以提升单产水平,采取化肥和有机肥搭配施用、节水间歇灌溉等途径能够缓解稻田甲烷排放。研究综合运用自上而下的遥感数据和自下而上的模型运算,刻画了水稻生产与区域甲烷排放的时空联系,进一步评估了稻田甲烷的排放潜力及减排措施的减排效果,为促进东北黑土地区农业甲烷减排和生产布局优化提供了理论依据和决策参考。

“双碳”目标下东北黑土区耕地利用生态效率时空格局与演变趋势

[目的]探究东北黑土区耕地利用生态效率的时空格局和演变趋势,将碳源与碳汇融入耕地利用过程,这对于实现黑土减排增效和“双碳”目标至关重要。[方法]基于超效率SBM模型、核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析和空间插值工具等方法,系统考察了2006—2020年东北黑土区耕地利用生态效率的时空特征与演进规律。[结果]黑土区耕地利用生态效率历经波动上升、显著下降和迅速回升3个阶段,总体处于较高发展水平,北部边缘城市的效率值明显高于中南部地区,基期和末期区间两极分化局势尤为显著,整体发展严重失衡;黑土区耕地利用生态效率全局空间相关特性并不明显,大致呈现“边缘—中心”空间扩散格局,由南北两端高值集聚向内及四周递减,而后形成多个块状高值区和低值分布带,规模集聚优势未能得到充分发挥;多数城市均存在不同程度的投入与产出冗余,劳动力和化肥冗余问题较为严重,碳排放冗余是造成黑土区耕地利用生态效率损失的普遍因素。[结论]优化要素配置和污染减排治理成为黑土利用重点改善方向,也是提升黑土区耕地利用生态效率的关键路径。